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    Title of Presentation Title of Presentation Presentation Transcript

    • Wi-Fi, WiMAX, Why Care? Sandy Teger and David J. Waks System Dynamics Inc. sandy@system-dynamics.com
    • Wireless Technologies for Different Ranges WiMAX 3G UWB/ZigBee/Bluetooth LAN MAN WAN PAN Wi-Fi
    • Telephony: Shift from fixed to personal Source: Personal Broadband Industry Association
    • Telephony Spending Shift to Wireless
      • Balance of spending for telephony has now moved to wireless
      • Wireless telephony is largest share of consumer wallet - and only one growing
      • Is broadband next?
      Source: TNS Telecoms, 2 nd Qtr 2004
    • Personal Broadband Next Source: Personal Broadband Industry Association
    • Solutions For Personal Broadband Deploying Now
      • Wi-Fi Hotspot Bundles
        • SBC : DSL adder for $1.99
        • Dual Wi-Fi/cellular handsets from SBC/Cingular for hand-off to hotspots and “roam to home”
      • “ Pre-WiMAX” Risk From 2.5 GHz band holders
        • Clearwire and Nextel already launched
      • 3G: Verizon , Sprint
      • Municipal wireless using Wi-Fi
        • Chaska, MN; Cerritos, CA; Philadelphia, PA; …
    • WiMAX – 802.16
      • Broadband Wireless Access – Metropolitan Area Networks
      • Fixed (and nomadic) access: 802.16-2004 (8/2004)
      • Mobile access: 802.16e (expected 5/2005)
      • Maximum cell size ~30 miles, 1.5 to 5 more typical
      • Maximum speed 100 Mbps (64QAM/20 MHz)
    • WiMAX: Great Expectations
      • Addresses deficiencies of previous BBW
        • Interoperability
        • Cost of base stations and CPE
        • Shared bandwidth up to 100 Mbps
        • Line of sight not required
        • Coverage 3-5 miles, more like cellular
        • Licensed and unlicensed spectrum
      • Many DOCSIS-like features including QoS
      • Milestone to “broadband everywhere”
    • WiMAX Bandwagon Effect
      • WiMAX Forum: ~160 members and growing
        • Complete value chain
        • Many chip companies, including Intel, Fujitsu
        • Many major equipment companies, including Motorola, Alcatel, Siemens
        • Many service providers, including BT, France Telecom and Qwest
      • Analogous to Wi-Fi Alliance for 802.11
        • Product certification through formal conformance and interoperability testing against “profiles”
        • Promotion, promotion, promotion
    • WiMAX Status
      • “ Pre-certification” products shipping now
        • Based on earlier 802.16a standard
        • Expensive base stations and CPE – enterprise focus
      • Certified products in 2005
        • Based on 802.16-2004
        • Licensed 2.5 GHz (U.S.) and 3.5 GHz (ROW)
        • License-free 5.8 GHz
        • “ Plugfest” interoperability testing started 2004
        • Formal certification testing ~1H05
      • “ Mobile WiMAX” expected late 2006
        • CPE bundled in laptops by 2007
    • Other Mobile Broadband Wireless Technologies Deploying Now
      • FCC just restructured 2.5 GHz band from video to broadband service
      • Band holders not waiting for WiMAX
        • Nextel running large-scale market trial in Raleigh-Durham
        • Clearwire launched in Jacksonville, FL and St. Cloud, MN
        • Sprint also owns spectrum, deferring decision
    • Nextel in Raleigh-Durham
      • Flarion “Flash-OFDM” technology
      • Mobile within RDU area
      • Downlink 1.5 Mbps (burst to 3Mbps)
      • Service starts at $34.99 (750/200)
      • Combo Wi-Fi/Flarion device: Netgear & D-Link
      • Developing technical & market knowledge
    • Clearwire in Jacksonville, FL
      • NextNet “pre-WiMAX” technology
      • “ Up to 1.5 Mbps”
      • Starts at $24.99 (512/128)
      • Easy self-install
      • Licenses in >80 markets
    • Metro Wi-Fi
      • High-volume, low cost, low margin
      • Based on off-the-shelf consumer Wi-Fi adapters
      • Not “carrier class” service
      • Disruptive to MSOs?
    • Wi-Fi Gaps Being Filled
      • Issue
        • Spectrum usage
        • Security
        • QoS
        • Interference
        • Roaming performance
        • Throughput
        • Mesh techniques
        • Range
        • Connection persistence
      • Progress
        • 802.11a
        • 802.11i/WPA, WPA2
        • 802.11e/WMM
        • 802.11h, 802.11k
        • 802.11r
        • 802.11n
        • 802.11s
      Specifics
    • City-wide “Hot Zones”
      • Already deployed in some smaller cities
      • Big cities preparing to deploy soon
      • Public safety a major driver, “digital divide” another
      • Near-term threat and opportunity for MSOs
    • Rapid Pace of Innovation and Market Entry
      • Mesh Networking
        • Tropos Networks
        • MeshNetworks
        • PacketHop
        • Nortel
        • Motorola
      • Smart Antennas
        • Vivato
        • 5G Wireless
    • City-Wide Wi-Fi in Chaska, MN
      • City operated, 16 square mile coverage area
      • Public safety, low-cost residential broadband service
      • 7500 homes passed, 1100 pre-registered
      • 200 cells, <$500,000 CapEx
    • Is Metro Wi-Fi Disruptive?
      • “Disruptive Technologies”*
        • Simple, cheap
        • Target lower performance markets
        • Commercialized in emerging market
        • Fast technological progress
      • Subsequently become performance competitive against established products
      * The Innovator’s Dilemma, Clayton M. Christensen
    • Is Your City Next? Philadelphia Jacksonville Grand Haven Spokane