Structural changes in mine supply:
Case studies in tin and tantalum
John P. Sykes
Director, Greenfields Research & PhD Can...
Supply shortages in tin mine supply
Contents
 Case studies of two mineral commodities undergoing
structural change in the...
Structural changes in mine supply: Tantalum
Demand: Tantalum capacitors,
electronics & mobile phones
Section
1
Demand: consumer electronics
Source: Tantalum-Niobium International Study Centre (TIC)
Structural changes in mine supply: Tantalum
Price: Spike due conflict minerals
legislation
Section
2
Conflict legislation price spike
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
2006
2006
2007
2008
2009
2009
2010
2011...
Tantalum has a history of price spikes
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
1940
1946
1952
1958
1964
1970
...
Structural changes in mine supply: Tantalum
Past structural changes in supply:
tin slags, Australia & the Congo
Section
3
Tin slag decline, rise of Aussie mines
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Annual mined tantalum
production (tonnes)
Oth...
Rise of Congo & “Conflict Minerals”
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
201...
Structural changes in mine supply: Tantalum
Where will future tantalum mine
supply come from?
Section
4
The future of tantalum mining?
35%
58%
3%
3% 1%
USGS Reserves
Estimate (t)
Australia Brazil Canada
Ethiopia Other
41%
21%
...
Structural changes in mine supply: Tantalum
Conclusions: A structural change
in tantalum supply is coming?
Section
5
Conclusions on tantalum supply
 Tantalum demand driven by growing electronics industry
 Opaque market, subject to spikes...
Game theory and tantalum
 The few miners and few buyers in the tantalum
industry creates a “prisoners dilemma”.
Source: S...
Structural changes in mine supply: Tin
Demand: Tin solder not tin cans
Section
6
Demand: Tin solders not tin cans
2010: solder is +50% of demand 1970s: tinplate is ~40% of demand
Copyright: Greenfields R...
China dominates solder demand
Tinplate: 54,200t (17%)
Chemicals: 42,600t
(13%)
Brass/Bronze: 18,300t
(6%)
Glass: 7,300t (2...
Structural changes in mine supply: Tin
Prices: 30-year highs on electronic
demand & stalling supply
Section
7
Tin prices are at 30-year highs
Long-term tin price history
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1900 ...
Lead to tin solder substitution
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: IPC
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1...
Weak supply driver of prices
Tin supply demand balance (Kt)
250.0
275.0
300.0
325.0
350.0
375.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2...
Structural changes in mine supply: Tin
Mine supply problems: artisanal
Asia, conflict Congo, closing Peru
Section
8
Alluvial and artisanal important
Copyright & Images:
Greenfields
Research
Artisanal mining occurs in short cycles
Global tin production (Kt)
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
1970
1973
...
Major Peruvian mine due to close
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2...
Conflict tin from the Congo
 https://www.itri
.co.uk/index.ph
p?option=com
_zoo&view=fro
ntpage&Itemid
=60
Data: ITRI/Gre...
Structural changes in mine supply: Tin
Where will future tin mine supply
come from?
Section
9
Hard or soft rock: Grade is king!
Theoretical change in cost due to changes in ore grade for a
primary tin, alluvial mine ...
Hard rock mining costs competitive
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
...
Hard or soft rock: Grade is king!
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Alluvial Open...
Asian countries dominate production
World Tin Mine Production (2012 est.)
Indonesia
(34.5%)
China
(34.5%)
Peru
(9.4%)
Boli...
Labour rates versus fuel prices?
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2011, GNI Per Capita (US$)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0...
Developed nations a safer investment
Country Ranking (of 181)
Canada 4th
Australia 5th
- -
USA 10th
- -
Germany 20th
- -
U...
Exchange rates important
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1...
Asian mining in decline
World Tin Mine Production (2016 est.)
China
(26.2%)
Indonesia
(22.0%)
Australia
(8.5%)
Peru
(10.6%...
Tin mining dependent on by-products
Copper
Australia & China
Silver
China
Lead
China
Zinc
Bolivia, China
Antimony
China
In...
Uneconomic without by-products
Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1...
More dependent on by-products
Copper
Australia, China,
Germany,
Kazakhstan,
Peru, UK
Silver
Australia,
Canada,
China,
Kaza...
Small, private and state companies
~25,500t, 9.4%,
Private/Public, Peru
~30,000t, 11.1%,
State/Public, Indonesia
~27,000t,...
Substantial investment required
Company Project Capex
(US$M)
Capacity
(t/y Sn)
Capex
(US$/t/y)
Source
Consolidated Tin Min...
But most a long way off
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Median intervals
from surveyed
projects
Years
Start-up
Construction
Financing
Feas...
Structural changes in mine supply: Tin
Conclusions: A structural change
in tin supply is also coming?
Section
10
Conclusions on tin mine supply
 Tin demand driven by growing electronics industry
 Market is currently supply driven, wi...
Spotting black swans
Tailings
mining?
Conflict tin?
Myanmar
democracy?
San Rafael
closure?
New Brazilian
supply?
Tin in
Co...
Structural changes in mine supply: Tin & Tantalum
Conclusions: A structural change
in tin supply is also coming?
Section
11
Comparing tin and tantalum
 Tin and tantalum demand driven by growing electronics industry
 Tin and tantalum industries ...
Preparation via scenario analysis
Known
Known
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown
Known
Known
Unknown
Opening
new search
space
Rising ...
Contact Details:
 John P. Sykes
 Director, Greenfields Research
 john.sykes@greenfieldsresearch.com
 www.greenfieldsre...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Structural Changes in Mine Supply: Tin and Tantalum - Sept 2013 - Greenfields Research / ITRI / Curtin University / University of Western Australia

1,569 views

Published on

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,569
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
4
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
74
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Structural Changes in Mine Supply: Tin and Tantalum - Sept 2013 - Greenfields Research / ITRI / Curtin University / University of Western Australia

  1. 1. Structural changes in mine supply: Case studies in tin and tantalum John P. Sykes Director, Greenfields Research & PhD Candidate, Centre for Exploration Targeting (on behalf of ITRI)
  2. 2. Supply shortages in tin mine supply Contents  Case studies of two mineral commodities undergoing structural change in the supply chain and what this means for the electronics industry:  Tantalum • Demand • Prices • Current supply • Potential new supply • Conclusions  A comparison of structural supply issues in tin and tantalum  Tin • Demand • Prices • Current supply • Potential new supply • Conclusions
  3. 3. Structural changes in mine supply: Tantalum Demand: Tantalum capacitors, electronics & mobile phones Section 1
  4. 4. Demand: consumer electronics Source: Tantalum-Niobium International Study Centre (TIC)
  5. 5. Structural changes in mine supply: Tantalum Price: Spike due conflict minerals legislation Section 2
  6. 6. Conflict legislation price spike 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 Metal Pages Tantalite basis 30% Ta2O5 (EU) $/lb Ta2O5 Closure of Wodgina mine Passage of Dodd-Frank Act Global Financial Crisis Source: Pete Souza (Whitehouse Photostream)
  7. 7. Tantalum has a history of price spikes 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 1940 1946 1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 USGS Tantalum Pentoxide (nominal) USGS Tantalum Pentoxide (real)  1950-60s – invention of tantalum capacitor, adoption partly driven by US space program  1980 price spike to panic buying by consumers, due to worries about mine supply.  2000 price spike a combination of surging demand from mobile phones and an opaque market, partly fuelled by war in the Congo.  Current spike partly relates to this “conflict minerals issue. Sources: USGS, UN, TIC
  8. 8. Structural changes in mine supply: Tantalum Past structural changes in supply: tin slags, Australia & the Congo Section 3
  9. 9. Tin slag decline, rise of Aussie mines 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Annual mined tantalum production (tonnes) Other Africa Central Africa Canada Brazil Australia Source: Tantalum-Niobium International Study Centre (TIC) Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS)
  10. 10. Rise of Congo & “Conflict Minerals” 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Annual mined tantalum production (tonnes) Other Africa Central Africa Canada Brazil Australia Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Image: Shutterstock
  11. 11. Structural changes in mine supply: Tantalum Where will future tantalum mine supply come from? Section 4
  12. 12. The future of tantalum mining? 35% 58% 3% 3% 1% USGS Reserves Estimate (t) Australia Brazil Canada Ethiopia Other 41% 21% 10% 10% 9% 7% 2% TIC Estimated "Likely Resources" (%) South America Australia Russia & Middle East China & SE Asia Central Africa Other Africa North America
  13. 13. Structural changes in mine supply: Tantalum Conclusions: A structural change in tantalum supply is coming? Section 5
  14. 14. Conclusions on tantalum supply  Tantalum demand driven by growing electronics industry  Opaque market, subject to spikes  Past demand destruction and structural supply changes  Recent structural change: Congolese conflict tin at the expense of Australian & Canadian hard rock supply  Dodd-Frank Conflict Minerals legislation has led to a de-facto embargo on Congolese tantalum  Is another structural supply change imminent? • Conflict free Congolese tantalum, integrated with consumers? • Resurgence of Australian & Canadian hard rock supply through globally integrated companies? • Price insensitive, low cost by-product niobium production? • Other mine projects in North Africa, Russia China? • Opening up of new exploration “search space”?  The actions of the small number of actors in the industry will have a big affect on which of these outcomes occurs.
  15. 15. Game theory and tantalum  The few miners and few buyers in the tantalum industry creates a “prisoners dilemma”. Source: Scott Adams
  16. 16. Structural changes in mine supply: Tin Demand: Tin solder not tin cans Section 6
  17. 17. Demand: Tin solders not tin cans 2010: solder is +50% of demand 1970s: tinplate is ~40% of demand Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
  18. 18. China dominates solder demand Tinplate: 54,200t (17%) Chemicals: 42,600t (13%) Brass/Bronze: 18,300t (6%) Glass: 7,300t (2%) Others: 26,600t (8%) China: 94,400t (30% of tin & 55% of solder) ROW: 76,700t (24% of tin & 45% of solder) Solder: 171,100t (54%) Tin Consumption (2009) Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
  19. 19. Structural changes in mine supply: Tin Prices: 30-year highs on electronic demand & stalling supply Section 7
  20. 20. Tin prices are at 30-year highs Long-term tin price history 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 US$/tonne, inflation adjusted 2010 prices 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 15 15 to 20 20 to 25 25 to 30 30 to 35 35 to 40 Price range, $000/tonne, 2010 real terms Number of years in each price band Tin price histogram 1900-2011 Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI Prices at 30 year highs Recent prices mainly is this range
  21. 21. Lead to tin solder substitution Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: IPC 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Lead-free solder Lead solder Lead-free solder as a % of global shipments Conversion to tin solder drove tin prices
  22. 22. Weak supply driver of prices Tin supply demand balance (Kt) 250.0 275.0 300.0 325.0 350.0 375.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Refined Supply Mine Supply Refined Demand Tin supply demand growth (%) -7.5% -5.0% -2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% Refined Demand Refined Supply Mine Supply Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI Demand strength driving prices Supply weakness driving prices Demand strength driving prices Supply weakness driving prices
  23. 23. Structural changes in mine supply: Tin Mine supply problems: artisanal Asia, conflict Congo, closing Peru Section 8
  24. 24. Alluvial and artisanal important Copyright & Images: Greenfields Research
  25. 25. Artisanal mining occurs in short cycles Global tin production (Kt) 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Other Africa CIS/USSR Australia Bolivia Brazil Peru Thailand Malaysia Indonesia China Index of alluvial mining booms 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 Malaysia 1958-1987 Thailand 1962-1991 Brazil 1977-2006 Indonesia 1992-20112 Indonesia 2012-2017??? ? ? ? Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
  26. 26. Major Peruvian mine due to close 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Annual Production from San Rafael (Kt tin) Due for closure
  27. 27. Conflict tin from the Congo  https://www.itri .co.uk/index.ph p?option=com _zoo&view=fro ntpage&Itemid =60 Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Annual Production from Africa (Kt tin) End of Congolese Civil War Dodd-Frank legislation iTSCI Scheme
  28. 28. Structural changes in mine supply: Tin Where will future tin mine supply come from? Section 9
  29. 29. Hard or soft rock: Grade is king! Theoretical change in cost due to changes in ore grade for a primary tin, alluvial mine in Indonesia, producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, from a team of gravel pumps, with a 100% recovery. Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1.0kg/m3 0.8kg/m3 0.6kg/m3 0.4kg/m3 0.2kg/m3 US$/tonne Mining Other 2015, Theoretical Net of By-Product Cash Costs Approximate grade of S.E. Asian alluvial ores
  30. 30. Hard rock mining costs competitive Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 OP 2.0% UG 4.0% OP 1.5% UG 3.0% OP 1.0% UG 2.0% OP 0.5% UG 1.0% US$/tonne Mining Processing Other 2015, Theoretical Net of By-Product Cash Costs Approximate grade of new hard rock projects Underground mine is a theoretical primary tin, underground mine in Australia, producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, with a processing recovery of 75%. Open pit mine is a theoretical primary tin, open pit mine in Australia, producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, with a processing recovery of 75%.
  31. 31. Hard or soft rock: Grade is king! Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Alluvial Open Pit Underground %breakdownofcost inputs Fuel Electricity Labour Other 2015, Theoretical Net of By-Product Cash Costs Theoretical cost breakdown for a primary tin, open pit mine in Australia grading 0.5%, producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, with a 75% recovery. Theoretical cost breakdown for a primary tin, alluvial mine in Indonesia grading 0.2kg/m3, producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, from a team of gravel pumps, with a 100% recovery. Theoretical cost breakdown for a primary tin, underground mine in Australia grading 1.0%, producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, with a 75% recovery. Vulnerable to fuel costs Vulnerable to labour costs
  32. 32. Asian countries dominate production World Tin Mine Production (2012 est.) Indonesia (34.5%) China (34.5%) Peru (9.4%) Bolivia (6.9%) Brazil (3.8%) Australia (2.3%) DR Congo (2.6%) Malaysia (1.2%) Vietnam (1.2%) Nigeria (0.6%) Portugal (<0.1%) Egypt (0.1%) Rwanda (1.4%) Burundi (<0.1%) Myanmar (0.7%) Thailand (0.1%) Laos (0.4%) Mongolia (<0.1%) Russia (0.2%) Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
  33. 33. Labour rates versus fuel prices? 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 2011, GNI Per Capita (US$) 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 2007-11 GNI Per Capita CAGR (%) Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: World Bank Developed world labour costs are higher… …but developing world labour costs are rising quickly
  34. 34. Developed nations a safer investment Country Ranking (of 181) Canada 4th Australia 5th - - USA 10th - - Germany 20th - - UK 25th - - Spain 27th Country Ranking (of 181) Peru 56th - - China 71st Brazil 72nd - - Indonesia 111th - - Bolivia 125th - - DR Congo 159th Rankings based on Greenfields Research’s proprietary mining political risk ranking system. The ranking system correlates economic data sets that cover most of the world’s countries (such as the Transparency International Corruption Index, the World Bank Doing Business dataset and GDP/land area) with well known mining industry political risk surveys, including the Fraser Institute, Behre Dolbear and ResourceStocks, to get a system which ranks all countries by their suitability for mining, not just those in the mining industry surveys. Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: Greenfields Research
  35. 35. Exchange rates important Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Exchange rates (to US dollar) indexed to 2006 Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) Chinese Renminbi (CYN) Bolivian Bolivano (BOB) Brazilian Real (BRL) Australian Dollar (AUD) Weaker Stronger Indonesian Rupiah affects marginal costs in tin. A stronger Rupiah means higher long term tin prices
  36. 36. Asian mining in decline World Tin Mine Production (2016 est.) China (26.2%) Indonesia (22.0%) Australia (8.5%) Peru (10.6%) Bolivia (7.5%) Brazil (4.8%) Malaysia (2.9%) Vietnam (1.1%) Laos (0.4%) Thailand (>0.1%) Myanmar (3.1%) Mongolia (0.4%) Russia (0.9%) Kazakhstan (1.8%) Canada (0.1%) UK (0.1%) Germany (1.2%) Spain (0.3%) Portugal (<0.1%) Egypt (0.7%) Morocco (2.1%) Nigeria (0.5%) DR Congo (3.0%) South Africa (0.5%) Rwanda (1.2%) Burundi (<0.1%) Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
  37. 37. Tin mining dependent on by-products Copper Australia & China Silver China Lead China Zinc Bolivia, China Antimony China Indium China Gallium China Tungsten Egypt, Mongolia, Myanmar Tantalum Burundi, Congo, Rwanda Niobium Brazil, Burundi, Nigeria World Tin Mine By-Products (2012 est.) Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI; Images: Shutterstock, www.csksg.com, www.tradekorea.com, www.cdves.com, American Elements, Wikipedia
  38. 38. Uneconomic without by-products Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 estimates of revenue shares for tin producing mines and mine projects Tin Aggregates Copper Iron Ore Mineral Sands Niobium Silver Tantalum Tungsten Lead/Zinc
  39. 39. More dependent on by-products Copper Australia, China, Germany, Kazakhstan, Peru, UK Silver Australia, Canada, China, Kazakhstan, USA Lead China Zinc Australia, Bolivia, Canada, China, Germany, UK, USA Antimony China Indium Australia, Canada, China, Germany Gallium China, Germany Tungsten Australia, Canada, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Myanmar, Portugal, Russia, Spain, UK, USA Tantalum Australia, Burundi, Congo, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Rwanda Niobium Brazil, Burundi, Nigeria Iron Ore Australia, Kazakhstan Molybdenum Canada Titanium Kazakhstan, Malaysia Zirconium Brazil World Tin Mine By-Products (2017 est.) Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI; Images: Shutterstock, www.csksg.com, www.tradekorea.com, www.cdves.com, American Elements, Wikipedia, www.made-in-china.com; www.images-of-elements.com Lithium Czech Rep.Aggregates Malaysia
  40. 40. Small, private and state companies ~25,500t, 9.4%, Private/Public, Peru ~30,000t, 11.1%, State/Public, Indonesia ~27,000t, 10.0%, State/Public, China ~9,200t, 3.4%, State, Bolivia ~10,500t, 3.9%, Private, China ~3,000t, 1.1%, Public, Australia ~3,500t, 1.3%, Public, Malaysia/Indonesia ~3,500t, 1.3%, State, Vietnam ~2,500t, 0.9%, Private, China ~2,000t, 0.7%, Co-op, Brazil Images: Company websites, ITRI, Wikipedia Data: ITRI (2012, mined production estimates – total 271,300 tonnes)
  41. 41. Substantial investment required Company Project Capex (US$M) Capacity (t/y Sn) Capex (US$/t/y) Source Consolidated Tin Mines Mt Garnet 124.0 3,050 40,700 Scoping 2010 Kasbah Resources Achmmach 166.8 6,900 24,300 Pre-Feasibility 2012 Metals X Rentails 173.2 5,300 32,700 Feasibility 2009 Stellar Resources Heemskirk 114.0 4,330 26,300 PFS 2013 Venture Minerals Mount Lindsay 198.0 2,750 39,100 PFS 2011 Total & average 776.0 22,330 34,750  Total new mine supply required 2013-17: 70,000t/y  Average capital cost per tonne new capacity: $34,750  Total investment required in new supply: $2.4 billion * Mount Lindsay is a tin-tungsten-magnetite project. The tungsten plant in particular greatly adds to capital costs.Copyright: Greenfields Research & ITRI; Data: ITRI
  42. 42. But most a long way off 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Median intervals from surveyed projects Years Start-up Construction Financing Feasibility Final Resource Pre- Feasibility 0 10 20 30 Early exploration Advanced exploration Scoping Pre-feasibility Feasibility Permitting Financing Construction Commissioning No. Projects Tin projects at different stages
  43. 43. Structural changes in mine supply: Tin Conclusions: A structural change in tin supply is also coming? Section 10
  44. 44. Conclusions on tin mine supply  Tin demand driven by growing electronics industry  Market is currently supply driven, with falling production from key regions  Tin industry has a history of alluvial mining “booms & busts”  Dodd-Frank Conflict Minerals legislation has also led to a de-facto embargo on Congolese tin  The major San Rafael mine in Peru is due for closure  Is another structural supply change imminent? • Resurgence of Australian & European hard rock supply? • Conflict free Congolese tin, integrated with consumers? • More complex by-product related industry? • New production from opaque, but known tin regions (Myanmar, Brazil, China)? • Opening up of new exploration “search space”?  The large number of unknowns in this industry mean it is difficult to predict exactly which future will prevail.
  45. 45. Spotting black swans Tailings mining? Conflict tin? Myanmar democracy? San Rafael closure? New Brazilian supply? Tin in Colombia? Bolivian expansion slows New Russian supply? China? SE Asia revival? New African supply? New European supply? Australian slowdown? Images: Shutterstock/Minsur
  46. 46. Structural changes in mine supply: Tin & Tantalum Conclusions: A structural change in tin supply is also coming? Section 11
  47. 47. Comparing tin and tantalum  Tin and tantalum demand driven by growing electronics industry  Tin and tantalum industries have histories of “booms & busts” relating to major supply and demand changes  Both industries seem to be on the verge of a structural supply change  Dodd-Frank Conflict Minerals legislation has also led to a de-facto embargo on Congolese tantalum – also an issue in tin  Costs and formalisation of alluvial and artisanal an issue in both industries  Structural supply changes could come from: • Resurgence of Australian & European hard rock supply? • Conflict free Congolese minerals, integrated with consumers? • More complex by-product related industries? • New production from opaque, but known regions (Myanmar, Brazil, China, CIS)? • Opening up of new exploration “search space”?  Or will the supply side continue on as it is currently?  Both industries seem very difficult to predict
  48. 48. Preparation via scenario analysis Known Known Unknown Unknown Unknown Known Known Unknown Opening new search space Rising costs & falling production Non-conflict minerals By-product mining Current project pipeline Resurgence of current supply Higher Costs Timeframe Current supply Opening new search space Non-conflict minerals Current project pipeline By-product mining No change
  49. 49. Contact Details:  John P. Sykes  Director, Greenfields Research  john.sykes@greenfieldsresearch.com  www.greenfieldsresearch.com  PhD Candidate / Adjunct Research Fellow  Centre for Exploration Targeting  www.cet.edu.au Today’s reference:  ITRI New Tin Mine Supply – Out Soon!  Peter Kettle  Manager, Statistics & Market Studies  peter.kettle@itri.co.uk  www.itri.co.uk

×