The Potential & Peril Of Web 2.0
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  • Chart reflects data collected at ARPA, NSF data and this analysis, and speculates on growth in the future Looking to the future, we believe growth will eventually have to flatten out, because most countries will not spend more on telecommunications in the future than they do today If traffic growth continues at the 4x rate, growth will slow near 2008-2010 and will remain at the same rate as the % GDP as voice traffic If growth slows or accelerates, the interception of the GDP asymptote will move forward or backward in time
  • 11/05/09 23:40 © 2006 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries. The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.

The Potential & Peril Of Web 2.0 The Potential & Peril Of Web 2.0 Presentation Transcript

  • WEB 2.0 AND THE DATA ECONOMY Just Because We Can Doesn’t Mean We Should (even though we probably will) May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved
  • ABOUT JOHN PARKINSON CHAIRMAN AND MANAGING DIRECTOR, PARKWOOD ADVISORS LLC
    • 30+ years in technology
    • 20+ years in consulting
    • Published author and columnist (CIO Insight)
    • World’s top 25 most influential consultants (2003)
    • Computerworld 100 Leaders in IT (2005)
    • Retired head of Innovation and Strategy at Ernst & Young LLP (September 2001)
    • Retired CTO of Capgemini (July 2005)
    • External Director, TeleGuam Holdings LLC; Tap.tv
    • Board of Advisors: Brulant, Inc. ; InSORS Communications; Skyline Data, Inc. Kanterra, Inc.
    May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved [email_address] +1 847 235 1791 www.parkwoodadvisor s .biz
  • COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER:
    •  ParkWood Advisors LLC 2007. All rights reserved.
    • Reproduction or translation of any part of this work, beyond that permitted by Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act without the permission of the copyright owner is unlawful. Requests for permission or further information should be addressed to John Parkinson at ParkWood Advisors LLC..
    • This presentation is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard of the subject matter covered. It is made available with the understanding that the intent is not to render legal, investment, accounting or other professional advisory services.
    • If investment advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.
    May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved View slide
  • AGENDA (TO SOME EXTENT)
    • Some observations on the human condition….
    • Some definitions….
    • Some opportunities….
    • Some issues….
    • Some additional thoughts….
    • An opportunity to disagree….
    May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved "You've got to be very careful if you don't know where you're going, because you might not get there."  Yogi Berra View slide
  • SOME OBSERVATIONS ON THE HUMAN CONDITION “ When you come to a fork in the road – take it” Yogi Berra May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved
  • SOME OBSERVATIONS ON THE HUMAN CONDITION
    • We talk in absolutes, but act incrementally and heterogeneously
    • We project the future linearly, but evolve hyperbolically
    • Discontinuities are far less common than people think
    • Inertia is a force to be reckoned with
    • Writing about the future doesn’t mean it will happen that way
    • People, given the choice, will avoid having to think hard
    May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved
  • Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved Voice Crossover: August 2000 4x/Year 2.8x/Year Limit of same % as GDP Sustained at 4x/Year Government & Research Commerce, including VoIP Collaborative Work 50 YEARS OF TRAFFIC GROWTH Consumer Peer to Peer Petabit threshold Exabit threshold ARPA & NSF Data to 96 2001 Measurements 1Gbps 1Tbps 10Tbps 100Gbps 10Gbps 100Tbps 100Mbps 1Kbps 1Mbps 10Mbps 100Kbps 10Kbps 100 bps 1 Pbps 100 Pbps 10 Pbps 10 bps 10 bps 1 Ebps 10 Ebps 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 100 Ebps 1 Zbps 10 Zbps Zettabit threshold
  • NEW CAPABILITIES CHANGE BEHAVIOR IN UNPREDICTABLE WAYS May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved Relative Impact of Capability On behavior Mainstream Collaboration time The “new” 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Minicomputers Shared digital documents All-in-one & PROFS Basic email Fax PC & LAN Email & Voicemail Spreadsheets Word processing ISDN & basic VTC Cell Phones Internet 2.5G Cell Phones IM & Advanced Messaging PowerPoint & Rich media P2P Wi-Fi Converged IP Networks Blackberry & UMTS Immersive Presence Agents & Rules Shared Workflow DRM
  • BANDWAGONS TEND TO ATTRACT BANDS May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved This is just the first 50 of more than 1000 “Web 2.0” brands you can browse on: www.web2logo.com
  • (SOME OF) THE PEOPLE FORMALLY KNOWN AS THE AUDIENCE…. May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved … .(seem to) WANT TO PARTICIPATE
  • CONSEQUENCES
    • Mobs are generally not very smart (sorry Howard) although (small) crowds are sometimes capable of wisdom (way to go James!)
    • The world is not even approximately flat yet (sorry Tom) although some (small) regions are getting that way because of the light speed limit
    • Everything is noise without the right filters
    • Just because everyone believes it doesn't make it true
    • It’s hard to break in and even harder to break out
    • Business as usual is the norm , because it requires no customer learning effort (sorry Chris, Rick, Doc & David)
    May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved
  • SOME DEFINITIONS “ Some people, if they don’t already know, you can’t tell them” Yogi Berra May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved I don’t know what it is but you need a new one….
  • WHAT’S NEXT? © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved Business Webs - compose on demand Event Driven Functional Accuracy Task Driven Building functions & task enablement Functional Integration Procedure Driven Joining functions & tasks to create procedures ERP – shared data Data Driven Integrating procedures to create end to end processes across the Enterprise Finding & connecting capabilities from different sources in real-time, to support the dynamic nature of sense & respond Modelling the probability of connections being made to ensure end to end services & optimum value Business Networks - shared processes Process Driven Extending processes across the network to create services & value from the Eco-System. Hard-wired and soft-wired connections Where we are today Functionally-oriented Architectures Process-oriented Architectures May 14th, 2006
  • FOR THE PURPOSES OF THIS DISCUSSION ONLY…….
    • Service delivery and instantiation models
    • Service execution environment design
    • Service composition and interaction expectations
    • Service experience and economics
    SaaS SOA Web 2.0 BUT WHERE’S THE DATA? = = = May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved
  • WHERE’S THE DATA?
    • Everywhere and nowhere : The web vs. the corporate data landfill vs. the personal storage device vs. wetware (and then there’s analog history)
    • Bounded by ownership and custom and structure (or lack of it)
    • Unbound by metadata and inference and algorithms (and carelessness with tags)
    • Hard to find, maintain, trust, understand….
    May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved ONE THINGS FOR CERTAIN: REALLY VALUABLE INFORMATION WANTS TO BE EXPENSIVE (sorry Stewart)
  • SOME OPPORTUNITIES “ You can observe a lot just by watching” Yogi Berra May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved
  • “ AND” IN A WORLD OF “OR”
    • Choice without compromise
      • In-house where it matters
      • Hosted for variable load management
      • On demand (or at least on the net) for the rare (or frequent but intermittent) occasion when…..
    • Stability and agility
      • It just works (the way I want) – all the time
      • It’s up to date – all the time and without disruption
    • Richness and reach
      • Personalization that works for me
      • Standardization under the hood (so I can afford it)
    • People and technology
    May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved
  • WEB 2.0 IS ABOUT MORE THAN SOFTWARE May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE NOT PERIPHERALS – AND PERIPHERALS ARE NOT PEOPLE
  • SO EVERY COMPANY IS A “MEDIA” COMPANY – LIKE IT OR NOT (MOST WON’T) May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved
  • SOME ISSUES “ In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is” Yogi Berra May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved
  • AND NOW FOR THE HARD PARTS (1 OF N)
    • Security and trust : What’s inside the black box? Where does your data really live and how and where does it travel…..
    • Standards : The right amount soon enough….
    • Performance: When everybody wants the same thing, right now….
    • Licensing and pricing and billing and getting paid : Markets, trading and arbitrage
    • Interaction and interoperability : Many small parts widely separated (sorry David)
    May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved
  • AND NOW FOR THE HARD PARTS (2 OF N)
    • Ownership and control : Ideas and code and script and look & feel….
    • Customization and extensibility : Because we are never really satisfied with just your ideas….
    • Recovery from failure : Because we still have to deal with Entropy and people….
    • User centered design challenges : Too rich for some mere mortals….
    • Rediscovering semiotics : So the message doesn’t get lost in the medium….
    May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved
  • AND NOW FOR THE HARD PARTS (3 OF N)
    • Connectivity is vital , but broadband is a myth created by US (and European) telephone companies and cable system operators (honorable exception: Verizon)
    • All the really good data is locked up so you can’t get at it (without joining a club you may not qualify for)
    • Peer group selection pressure is a barrier to broad social networks (for most of us)
    • Capital concentration and leverage favors a smart incumbent (but you can still change the game, here and there)
    May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved
  • SOME ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS “ It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future” Yogi Berra May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved
  • WHERE WE ARE TODAY…..
    • Visualization changes the game in valuing data
      • Zurich ATC example
      • http://wpf.netfx3.com/direct/zurich/zeuswpf.xbap
      • Otto Retail Store Experience
      • http://www.otto.de/vista
    • Business “applications” are still struggling to incorporate a “rich” experience
    • Games lead the way but are still challengingly complex to develop (worse than movies). Maybe evolution is the answer?
    • “ Code for Fun” approaches target “amateur” developers: Lessons from the “Makers Faire” community
    May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved
  • WHERE WE ARE TODAY…. A BRIEF WORD ON SENSORS
    • Cameras, cameras everywhere, but not a lot to see
    • Cell phones as environmental sensors
    • Most sensor data isn’t significant so long as you know the sensor is working
    • Event correlation matters as much as event detection
    • Spoofing strategies are still emerging
    • Mesh might be an answer but: how granular? Location? Mobility? Cost?
    • Still need a power supply and a network connection
    May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved
  • WHERE WE ARE TODAY
    • Legal and regulatory environments are out of alignment with technology capabilities and mercantile capitalism
    • Provenance and reputation make collaborative sources interesting but suspect (sorry Don)
    • Information leakage makes pricing data very hard and protecting information assets almost impossible
    • The Long Tail requires much better “findability”: If search is the answer, what’s the question?
    • Anyone can join in, but relatively few can create anything worthwhile (alone or as a mob)
    • The really hard parts still require genius and insight: mass isn’t enough
    May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved
  • QUESTIONS & COMMENTS: AN OPPORTUNITY TO DISAGREE Welcome to the future – however it turns out May 14th, 2006 © ParkWood Advisors, 2006. All Rights Reserved