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Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
Meetings In 2020  V5.1 Feb 2007
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Meetings In 2020 V5.1 Feb 2007

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  • Chart reflects data collected at ARPA, NSF data and this analysis, and speculates on growth in the future Looking to the future, we believe growth will eventually have to flatten out, because most countries will not spend more on telecommunications in the future than they do today If traffic growth continues at the 4x rate, growth will slow near 2008-2010 and will remain at the same rate as the % GDP as voice traffic If growth slows or accelerates, the interception of the GDP asymptote will move forward or backward in time
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    • 1. Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved Meetings in 2020 John Parkinson Chairman & Managing Director ParkWood Advisors LLC Sydney, February 2007
    • 2. Agenda
      • How we got here: Scenarios Revisited
      • Leveraging Automation
      • Meetings in Virtual
      • Meeting Management
      • Where do we go from here?
      Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved
    • 3. How we got here: Scenarios revisited “ It may not be possible to predict the future but it is certainly possible to invent it” Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved
    • 4. Predicting the future is hard….. Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved
    • 5. … ..but building scenarios can help. Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved “ Process” “ Algorithm” “ Locus” “ Society” What kinds of new things can we model or compute or connect? What new kinds of locations are accessible or connections possible? How does this change what we can do? How does this change how we work and live? “ Weak signals” Feedback loops What emergent trends should we track? “ Expectation” What issues and ideas illuminate, motivate and constrain the aspirations of societies groups and individuals (constructed via scenario analysis) “ Devices” What new kinds of products or capabilities are coming to market?
    • 6. Two scenarios for 2020
      • An energy crunch
        • nuclear electric generation replaces oil, gas and coal as primary energy source
        • a major but rapidly settled regional conflict
        • a generally peaceful, prosperous and healthy world
        • limited ability to travel.
      • A threat of global contagion
        • an effective hydrogen-based economy providing cheap energy
        • a background of low-level worldwide biological terrorism
        • a continuing concern about global pandemics.
      Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved In both scenarios most people are unable or reluctant to travel a lot and to meet in large groups, especially with strangers.
    • 7. Leveraging automation “ Of course you can’t have everything – where would you keep it all?” Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved
    • 8. The new capabilities and tools
      • Low cost, high bandwidth, prevalent connectivity and cheap computing cycles
      • Ubiquitous digital sensors and surveillance
      • Highly reliable automation
      • Semi-autonomous personal software agents: “Images”
      • Augmented storage: “eMinds”
      Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved
    • 9. The new challenges
      • Prevalent observation
      • Behavioral analysis
      • Scenario simulation and outcome prediction
      • Globally dispersed executive management
      • “ Real time reality”
      • “ Always on” executive demand
      Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved
    • 10. The new responses
      • “ Images” to mask behavioral cues
      • Real time analytics
      • Routine decision automation
      • Attention augmentation
      • Neutral meeting “places” with digital authentication
      Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved
    • 11. New capabilities change behavior in unpredictable ways Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved Mainstream Collaboration time The “new” Minicomputers Shared digital documents All-in-one & PROFS Basic email Fax PC & LAN Email & Voicemail Spreadsheets Word processing ISDN & basic VTC Cell Phones Internet 2.5G Cell Phones IM & Advanced Messaging PowerPoint & Rich media P2P Wi-Fi Converged IP Networks Blackberry & UMTS Immersive Presence Agents & Rules Shared Workflow DRM Relative Impact of Capability On behavior 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
    • 12. Meetings “ in Virtual” “ It always amazes me how consistently we over estimate what we can do in two years and underestimate what we can do in ten” Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved
    • 13. In “Virtual” you can be…..
      • Anywhere (real or imaginary) you want
      • Anyone (real or imaginary) you want
      • Surrounded by (invisible) help
      • Secure and certain
      • Recorded and replayed
      • (Invisibly) multitasking
      Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved
    • 14. Meeting Management Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved
    • 15. Making meetings productive
      • Effective preparation and briefing
      • “ Sprint & Glide” interaction models
      • Confirming vs. deciding modalities
      • Managing time
      • The sociology of interruptions
      • The rise of semiotics, rituals and the role of archetypes
      Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved
    • 16. Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved Social Network Mapping Real time communications analysis Visualizing information sets, decisions and outcomes
    • 17. Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved Managing Meeting Models, Time Lines and Interaction Effectiveness
    • 18. Where do we go from here? “ The future is only rational in retrospect” Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved
    • 19. The limits to….
      • Storage : Managing the ExaFlood - Quantum holography vs. space colonization
      • Bandwidth : The Yottabit threshold in 2025
      • Wavelength resolution : Quantum crossover in MP λ S
      • Latency: When speed of light is not enough
      • Unassisted human cognition : Transcending the mind/machine interface
      Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved
    • 20. Welcome to the future - however it turns out! Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved
    • 21. About John Parkinson Chairman and Managing Director, ParkWood Advisors LLC
      • 30+ years in technology
      • 20+ years in consulting
      • Published author and columnist (CIO Insight)
      • World’s top 25 most influential consultants (2003)
      • Chairman ITAA Working Group on Public Policy for RFID (2004)
      • Computerworld 100 Leaders in IT (2005)
      • Retired head of Innovation and Strategy at Ernst & Young LLP (September 2001)
      • Retired CTO of Capgemini (July 2005)
      • External Director, TeleGuam Holdings LLC
      • Board of Advisors: Brulant Inc. ; TAP.tv; InSORS Communications;
      Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved [email_address] +1 847 235 1791
    • 22. Copyright notice and disclaimer:
      •  ParkWood Advisors LLC 2006. All rights reserved.
      • Reproduction or translation of any part of this work, beyond that permitted by Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act without the permission of the copyright owner is unlawful. Requests for permission or further information should be addressed to John Parkinson at ParkWood Advisors LLC..
      • This presentation is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard of the subject matter covered. It is made available with the understanding that the intent is not to render legal, investment, accounting or other professional advisory services.
      • If investment advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.
      Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved
    • 23. Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved Source: InternetWorldStats.com WORLD INTERNET USAGE AND POPULATION STATISTICS World Regions Population ( 2006 Est.) Population % of World Internet Usage, Latest Data % Population ( Penetration ) Usage % of World Usage Growth 2000-2006 Africa 915,210,928 14.1 % 32,765,700 3.6 % 3.0 % 625.8 % Asia 3,667,774,066 56.4 % 394,872,213 10.8 % 36.4 % 245.5 % Europe 807,289,020 12.4 % 308,712,903 38.2 % 28.4 % 193.7 % Middle East 190,084,161 2.9 % 19,028,400 10.0 % 1.8 % 479.3 % North America 331,473,276 5.1 % 229,138,706 69.1 % 21.1 % 112.0 % Latin America/Caribbean 553,908,632 8.5 % 83,368,209 15.1 % 7.7 % 361.4 % Oceania / Australia 33,956,977 0.5 % 18,364,772 54.1 % 1.7 % 141.0 % WORLD TOTAL 6,499,697,060 100.0 % 1,086,250,903 16.7 % 100.0 % 200.9 % NOTES: (1) Internet Usage and World Population Statistics were updated for Sept. 18, 2006. (2) Demographic (Population) numbers are based on data contained in the world-gazetteer website. (3) Internet usage information comes from data published by Nielsen//NetRatings , by the International Telecommunications Union , by local NICs, and other reliable sources. (4) Information from this site may be cited, giving due credit and establishing an active link back to www.internetworldstats.com . Copyright © 2006, Miniwatts Marketing Group. All rights reserved worldwide.
    • 24. © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Voice Crossover: August 2000 4x/Year 2.8x/Year Limit of same % as GDP Sustained at 4x/Year 2015 2020 1 Ebps 10 Ebps 100 Ebps Government & Research Commerce, including VoIP Collaborative Work 50 years of traffic growth Consumer Peer to Peer 1 Zbps 10 Zbps Petabit threshold Exabit threshold Zettabit threshold Version 5.0 January 23, 2007 1Gbps 1Tbps 10Tbps 100Gbps 10Gbps 100Tbps 100Mbps 1Kbps 1Mbps 10Mbps 100Kbps 10Kbps 100 bps 1 Pbps 100 Pbps 10 Pbps 10 bps 10 bps ARPA & NSF Data to 96 2001 Measurements
    • 25. Meetings in 2020 © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved Version 5.0 January 23, 2007

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