Offshore Wind Energy

Does
Cape Wind
Make Sense?
John Droz, jr.
Physicist & Environmental Advocate
Save Our Sound
9/11/12

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Does Cape Wind Make Sense?

This is a presentation given to several groups of Cape Cod citizens in September, 2012.
This is an abbreviated (30 minute) discussion about various key aspects of the US electricity grid, and the electrical power source choices we
have. This is a complicated matter, so I have tried to strike a balance between being too technical and too simplified. The FULL wind energy
version is at EnergyPresentation.Info.
In my live presentation there is commentary that accompanies each slide, and this is not included here.
The underlying message is that our energy decisions should be made on the basis of sound SCIENCE — not on what lobbyists say.
Hopefully you have already been to the “WindPowerFacts.Info” website which has other useful supporting information.
My expectation is that after legislators get more informed — and do some Critical Thinking — that they will be in a much better position to
execute informed cost-beneficial energy and environmental policies.

Feel free to use this material to make a presentation to your own representatives. In any case after you go through this, I will be glad to
personally respond to any emails you send me: “aaprjohn@northnet.org”.
Please see some references, my brief “resume,” the copyright notice, disclaimer, contact information: all at the end of
EnergyPresentation.Info. [Note that I will indicate updates on the material by a revision letter on the first slide.] If you like what you see,
please pass it on to other open-minded people, plus your federal, state and local representatives.

— ENJOY!

john droz, jr.

© john droz, jr.

I can’t overemphasize
the critical importance
of getting community support.

There are two things that are more difficult than
making a public speech:
climbing a wall that is leaning toward you, and
kissing a girl who is leaning away from you.
— Winston Churchill

A Lot More About What
You’ll See Today,
is Online at:
EnergyPresentation.Info

The basic
objective
of any con.

How were snake oil salesmen
able to take advantage of good people?

1 - By telling them what they wanted to hear, and
2 - by counting on the fact that few people take the
time to properly check things out!

We look back and say
how could these people be so gullible?

But is it any different today?

There is
no penalty
for making
unscientific
claims.

Is the Cape Wind developer
a Credible Source of Wind Information?

“A man cannot be expected to understand something,
when his income depends on his not understanding it.”
— Upton Sinclair

The solution to almost any con is simple:

1 - don’t believe everything you
hear from sales people, and
2 - thoroughly check things out!

In short, my position is that —

1) we do have environmental and energy issues, and
2) these matters should be solved scientifically.

It’s Lobbyists vs Science
—and Science is Losing

What Is

Critical
Thinking?
A thorough, open-minded, logical effort
to examine a claim,
in the light of all applicable evidence.

One of the key ingredients of true science — and critical thinking — is

SKEPTICISM

Some Relevant Carl Sagan Quotes To Ponder —
1 - We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology,
in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology.

2 - I am often amazed at how much more capability and enthusiasm for science
there is among elementary school youngsters than among college students.

3 - We have arranged things so that almost no one understands science and
technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get away with it for
awhile, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and
power is going to blow up in our faces.

4 - Skeptical scrutiny is the means by which deep thoughts can be separated
from deep nonsense.

My Three Hats Here:

#1 - Physicist

#2 - Economist

#3 - Environmentalist

Twelve Turbines in a Rural Community

© john droz, jr.

Wind Power Fails to Deliver the Goods

By this I mean that:
1) wind energy is not a technically sound solution to provide
us power, or to meaningfully reduce global warming, and
2) wind energy is not an economically viable source of energy
on its own, and
3) wind energy is not environmentally responsible.

The Soundbite:
Wind Energy = High Cost, Low Benefits

Science is a PROCESS that Works Like This:
When a new idea is proposed as a potential solution to a problem,
it is up to the advocates to PROVE its efficacy
(not the other way around).

The Process is called the Scientific Method —
which involves a:
1) comprehensive,
2) objective,
3) transparent, and
4) empirical based analysis.

In the case of Wind Energy,
this has never been done!

Sound Scientific Solutions
is the Umbrella position that covers
ALL important concerns:

TECHNICAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL
(e.g. reliability, (e.g. taxpayer cost, (e.g. CO2 savings,
dispatchability, ratepayer costs, noise, flicker,
transmission, agricultural impact, birds & bats,
other Grid property values, other health effects,
limitations) net jobs, etc.) raw material extraction
and processing, etc.)

How Does Offshore Wind Energy
Fare in these Three Key Areas?


A Teensie
∫

Part 1: Technical
Tidbit

There is NO SUCH THING
as wind energy by itself!

Because it has no Firm Capacity,
Wind Energy MUST HAVE
a fast-responding, augmenting
source of power available 24/7/365.

NO other conventional source of
electricity has this requirement!

For a variety of
technical and economic reasons,
this fast-responding, augmenting
source of power is usually gas.

So, ALL statements about the
consequences of any wind project
(calculations of cost,
impact on air quality, etc.)
MUST address the
WIND + GAS Package.

What does Cape Wind,
(or the Sierra Club’s wind presentation) say
about wind energy’s fossil fuel dependence?

NOT A WORD THAT I CAN SEE.

Another technical issue with Offshore Wind

“Integrating the variable
capacity of wind energy
undermines the time-
tested, science driven
technology plan
required of all utilities.
And that just isn’t right.”


“In the simplest of terms,
special interest groups
and wind developers are
asking you to pay more
for a less reliable product.
And that just isn’t right.”

President & COO of Duke’s US Electric business, says:

“It doesn’t matter how clean it is,
if it’s not affordable or reliable.”

An even more
disturbing assessment
from a
utility executive.
When National Grid’s CEO was challenged
about integrating wind energy, he said:

“Families would have to get
used to only using power
when it was available,
rather than constantly.”

The wind industry’s omission
of these (and other) technical realities
is a misrepresentation of the situation.


Eying
Part 2: Environmental
Effects

What does the Sierra Club’s
wind presentation say?

What does Cape Wind’s site say?

It’s not here!

What are Cape Wind’s claims?

If the Cape Wind people REALLY wanted to replace fossil fuels,
they would be advocating nuclear. Consider this...

The Reality Regarding Fish & Offshore Wind

The Reality Regarding Fish & Offshore Wind

“The destructive impact of
off-shore turbine
development is huge.
Fishermen will become
another forgotten element
of the mad dash
for wind power.”

The Reality Regarding Birds & Offshore Wind

The Reality Regarding Birds & Offshore Wind

There are growing concerns that
offshore wind turbines can have
detrimental impacts on wildlife.
Birds are particularly vulnerable…
Seabirds are negatively impacted
through the loss and modification
of resting and foraging grounds...
Several studies have found that
offshore wind farms act as barriers
to traveling seabirds...

Some citizens say that they support
similar wind projects because they are “Green.”

Is Wind Energy Really Green?
Let’s take a quick look at
just one part of a turbine...

Many Wind
Turbines use
2000± Pounds
of Rare Earth
Elements
per rated MW.

So what?

The processing of
Rare Earth Elements
involves dozens of steps,
of caustic chemical baths,
or blast furnace separations.

Each of these results
in a waste stream
of severely polluted
air, water, and residue.

The processing of the
Rare Earth Elements,
for a 470 MW wind project
(the approximate size of the Cape Wind project)...

1) destroys 88,000± square meters of vegetation,

2) generates 28,000,000± cubic meters of highly toxic air pollution,

3) poisoning 135,000,000± gallons of water,

4) produces 2,800,000,000± pounds of contaminated tailing sands, &

5) results in 470,000± pounds of radioactive waste.

Yes, that’s right:
processing the REEs
used by just one 470 MW wind project’s turbines

result in 470,000± pounds of radioactive waste!

So, is Wind Energy
Really Green?

An objective look
says NO!

After considering the environmental liabilities
of offshore wind energy,
we should re-examine these marketing claims:

1 - Is Wind Energy really “renewable”?
2 - Is Wind Energy really “sustainable”?
3 - Does Wind Energy really give us energy
“independence”?

The inescapable answer is NO!

As time goes on, SOME environmentalists are speaking out —

“Industrial wind projects don’t work. They produce a trickle of
electricity at a vast cost to the consumer. They desecrate the
landscape and make people’s lives a misery. And they don’t even
cut carbon emissions. They are literally a waste of space…”

Struan Stevenson: Chairman of the European Parliament’s
Climate Change, Biodiversity & Sustainable Development Intergroup (11/11/11)

And more TRUE environmentalists speaking out —

“The current rush for large scale wind developments, connected by a
hugely centralized grid system shows a poverty of imagination and
thinking rooted in the early 20th Century. If attention continues to
be focused on increasing renewable energy targets, without any
requirement to demonstrate what each development will achieve in
greenhouse gas emissions reductions (including all aspects of the
generation and transmission), we face a possible worst case scenario,
where we achieve renewable energy targets through inappropriate
developments and at great cost to important environments — only
to discover that our greenhouse gas emissions are up, along with our
energy consumption, and our energy supply is not secure.”

The John Muir Trust <<http://www.jmt.org/what-we-think.asp>>.


Energy
Part 3: Economics
Explained

What Wind Energy Is Really All About

E-V-E-R-Y-T-H-I-N-G
about the economics here
is problematic!

Does wind energy provide economical electricity ?
NO, not compared to conventional sources.
Look at the real economics from three perspectives —
a) Total Costs = higher than conventional sources.
b) Ratepayer Costs = higher than conventional sources.
c) Taxpayer Subsidies = higher than all conventional sources,
combined!

Financial Comparison “a”

Total Costs
(Capital + Operation + Fuel + Transmission)

Power Sources Total Costs
Capital Operation Fuel Transmission

{Wind costs here do NOT take into account
any costs: for backup generation,
OR for extra transmission lines needed,
OR for other ancillary requirements,
OR for decommissioning.}

Nuclear Geothermal Gas w CCS Coal w CSS Onshore Wind Offshore Wind

EIA — Estimated Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources, 2016

Financial Comparison “b”

Utility Ratepayer Costs

More real world evidence
from NC utility experts,
about the real cost of
wind energy:
onshore = 2-3 times more
offshore = 4-5 times more

What’s the Correlation with
Higher Wind Energy Usage
and Residential Electricity Rates?
40

35 Denmark Bad Renewables %
¢/KWH (2007 Data)
30
Germany
25

20 Spain

15
US
10 Canada

5

Financial Comparison “c”

Taxpayer Costs

$4,981 M
Annual Federal TAXPAYER Subsidies
of Electrical Energy Sources: Totals
2010 US Energy Information Administration Subsidy Report: July 2011
[Direct + Tax + R&D +Electricity Support]

Note that the total 2010
subsidies for wind energy
exceed the totals for all the
other conventional sources
COMBINED!

$1,189 M $2,234 M $654 M $215 M $4,981 M

Coal Nuclear Nat Gas Hydro Wind

cla im?
hon est
his an
s, i s t
e f act
w t hes
you kno
t hat
Now

Regional Economic Consequences

To begin with,
all “enticements” are with your own money!

Remember What Your Dad Said:
There’s No Free Lunch!

A main justification for promoting
offshore wind energy,
is JOBS.

So Carefully Consider the Following...

To ACCURATELY know regional economics,
we need to get valid answers to four questions:

1) Exactly how much of the jobs and economic claims are guaranteed?
2) Specifically how much of the guaranteed jobs and economic benefits
will go to local citizens?
3) What are the NET jobs and economic benefits to the region?
4) Are there other resulting benefits or liabilities from such a project?

Question #1:
Exactly how much of Cape Wind’s job and economic claims are guaranteed?

Answer: None.

Question #2:
Specifically how much of the guaranteed jobs and economic benefits will go to
local citizens?

Answer: We have no idea. Most initial jobs will be to imported specialists.

Question #3:
What are the NET jobs and economic benefits to the region?

Answer: There will be NET job and economic losses. See next slides!

Offshore Wind Jobs Fact #1

No Jobs (or economic development) claim has any merit
unless it accurately considers the NET impact.

There is zero evidence on the Cape Wind website
that they have burdened themselves with this obligation.

There is nothing — no program, no hobby, no vice, no crime —
that does not create jobs. For example, tsunamis,
computer viruses and robbing convenience store clerks
all create jobs.
So since that claim applies to all
it is an argument in favor of none.
Instead of providing evidence of the merits of an
enterprise, a jobs claim is
a de facto admission that one has a specious case.
— energy attorney Chris Horner

The US has lost most of its jobs to other countries primarily
due to economics:
low cost labor.
Our businesses have one major economic benefit left to
counter more job loss:
low cost electricity.
Why would we voluntarily give this up
by reverting to more expensive electricity sources???

What are Cape Wind’s job & economic claims?

The Reality Regarding Jobs & Offshore Wind

The Reality Regarding
Jobs & Offshore Wind

The UK has installed a lot of offshore wind
— yet (contrary to the Cape Wind’s
assurances) there have been very few local
jobs or economic development resulting.

The Reality Regarding Tourism & Offshore Wind


Total = 11,000± Jobs

4% Reduction = 400+ Annual Tourist Jobs Lost
Compare to 154 Cape Wind related jobs added.


Total = $1.1± Billion

4% reduction = $45+ million annual economic loss
Compare to $22 M Cape Wind economic increase.

The Reality Regarding Economics & Offshore Wind


$540,000,000

*

*Note: The total figure (in red) has been adjusted for a 6 mile location.


Conclusion: an additional $126 Million is lost in Retail + Food + Beverage sales.
Local Retail NET LOSS for Atlantic County in 2012 = $665± Million!


Conclusion: Net is $900± Million lost!


Conclusion: There are no NET economic benefits!


According to the 2008
Global Insight study:
Atlantic County
property owners
will LOSE
$91,000,000±
in real estate value!

Typical Offshore Wind Development Impact:

Net Annual Job Loss

Net Annual Economic Loss

Substantial Property Value Loss

Is this the message the Public is getting?

Question #4:
Are there other resulting benefits or liabilities
from such a project?

Answer:
Yes, there are other substantial liabilities. For
example, the many millions of dollars being
given to this developer (e.g. through tax credits):
a) increase our country’s indebtedness, and
b) is money borrowed from China.

Are either of these in our interest to support?

This is the point where we are now.
Making the wrong choice will cost us for 20+ years.

The United States can be a Leader in:

1) Eighteenth century ideas like horse transportation and wind energy
(buggy whip manufacturing, blacksmith and windmill jobs)
OR
2) State-of-the art, Scientifically Sound energy solutions
(like geothermal energy or Small Modular Reactors)

Is an “All of the Above” Energy Policy wise?

Only if it makes sense to include:
unreliable,
expensive, and
environmentally destructive energy options!

We need an “All of the Sensible” Energy Policy.

The Wind Project Developer has ONE Objective:
to squeeze the Public
for EVERYTHING they can get out of them.

We can chose
the path thru the
dark green forest.
After all,
the marketeers
assured us
that it would be
an easy shortcut
to get some
“found money.”

The salesmen
promised us that
the trip will be
pleasant and
successful.
Any animals
along the way
will be our friend!

Of course there
were no
guarantees.

Once we go
down this path,
we are on our own.

For more info see:

WindPowerFacts.Info

Thank You!

Offshore Wind Energy

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