Offshore Wind Energy

Does OffshoreWind EnergyMake Sense? John Droz, jr. Physicist & Environmental Advocate Pine Knoll Shores 3/7/12 (rev 5/18/12)

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Our Energy Policies — from Lobbyists or ScienceThis is a short presentation given to the Beaufort county (NC) commissioners on 3/7/12.This is an abbreviated (20 minute) discussion about various key aspects of the US electricity grid, and the electrical power source choices wehave. This is a complicated matter, so I have tried to strike a balance between being too technical and too simplified. The FULL version ofthis part is EnergyPresentation.Info.The underlying message is that our energy decisions should be made on the basis of sound SCIENCE — not on what lobbyists say.Hopefully you have already been to my website: “WindPowerFacts.Info” which has other useful supporting information.My expectation is that after legislators get more informed — and do some Critical Thinking — that they will be in a much better position toexecute informed cost-beneficial energy and environmental policies.In my live presentation there is commentary that accompanies each slide, and this is not included here.Feel free to use this material to make a presentation to your own representatives. In any case after you go through this, I will be glad topersonally respond to any emails you send me: “aaprjohn@northnet.org”.Please see References and credits, my brief “resume,” the copyright notice, disclaimer, contact information: all at the end ofEnergyPresentation.Info. [Note that I will indicate updates on the material by a revision letter on the first slide.] If you like what you see,please pass it on to other open-minded people, plus your federal, state and local representatives. — ENJOY! john droz, jr. © john droz, jr.

A Lot More About What You’ll See Tonight, is Online at:EnergyPresentation.Info

There are two things that are more difficult than making a public speech:climbing a wall which is leaning toward you, andkissing a girl who is leaning away from you. — Winston Churchill

Does PantegoMake Sense? John Droz, jr. Physicist & Environmental Advocate Beaufort County 1/9/12

The basic objectiveof any con.

How were snake oil salesmen able to take advantage of good people?1 - By telling them what they wanted to hear, and2 - by counting on the fact that few people take the time to properly check things out!

We look back and say how could these people be so gullible?But is it any different today?

Yes —It’s Worse!

There isno penaltyfor makingunscientific claims.

We’ve comefull circle.

The solution to almost any con is simple:1 - don’t believe everything you hear from sales people, and2 - thoroughly check things out!

In short, my position is that — 1) we do have environmental and energy issues, and 2) these matters should be solved scientifically.

It’s Lobbyists vs Science—and Science is Losing

What Is Critical Thinking?A thorough, open-minded, logical effort to examine a claim, in the light of applicable evidence. One of the key ingredients of true science — and critical thinking — is SKEPTICISM

Some Relevant Carl Sagan Quotes To Ponder —1 - Skeptical scrutiny is the means by which deep thoughts can be separated from deep nonsense.2 - We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology.3 - I am often amazed at how much more capability and enthusiasm for science there is among elementary school youngsters than among college students.4 - We have arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get away with it for awhile, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces.

My Three Hats Here:#1 - Physicist#2 - Economist#3 - Environmentalist

Twelve Turbines in a Rural Community © john droz, jr.

Wind Power Fails to Deliver the GoodsBy this I mean that:1) wind energy is not a technically sound solution to provide us power, or to meaningfully reduce global warming, and2) wind energy is not an economically viable source of energy on its own, and3) wind energy is not environmentally responsible.

The Soundbite:Wind Energy = High Cost, Low Benefits

Science is a PROCESS that Works Like This:When a new idea is proposed as a potential solution to a problem,it is up to the advocates to PROVE its efficacy (not the other way around).

The Process is called the Scientific Method — which involves a: 1) comprehensive, 2) objective, 3) transparent, and 4) empirical based analysis. In the case of Wind Energy, this has never been done!

Sound Scientific Solutions is the Umbrella position that covers ALL important concerns:TECHNICAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL(e.g. reliability, (e.g. taxpayer cost, (e.g. CO2 savings,dispatchability, ratepayer costs, noise, flicker, transmission, agricultural impact, birds & bats, other Grid property values, other health effects, limitations) net jobs, etc.) raw material extraction and processing, etc.)

Part 1:A Teensie Technical Tidbit

There is NO SUCH THINGas wind energy by itself!

Wind Energy MUST HAVE a fast-responding, augmentingsource of power available 24/7/365. NO other conventional source of electricity has this requirement!

For a variety oftechnical and economic reasons,this fast-responding, augmenting source of power is usually gas.

So, ALL statements about theconsequences of this wind project (calculations of cost, impact on air quality, etc.) MUST address the WIND + GAS Package.

What does the Sierra Club’s wind presentation & website sayabout wind energy’s fossil fuel dependence? NOT A WORD THAT I CAN SEE.

This omission of the Gas+Wind reality is a serious deception.

Other technical issues with Offshore Wind

Another technical issue with Offshore Wind

Another technical issue with Offshore Wind “Integrating the variable capacity of wind energy undermines the time- tested, science driven technology plan required of all utilities. And that just isn’t right.”

An even more disturbing assessment from a utility executive.When National Grid’s CEO was challenged about integrating wind energy, he said:“Families would have to get used to only using power when it was available, rather than constantly.”

The Sierra Club’s omission of these (and other) realitiesis a misrepresentation of the situation.

Part 2:Eying Environmental Effects

What does the Sierra Club’s wind presentation say?

Some citizens say that they supportsimilar wind projects because they are “Green.”

Is Wind Energy Really Green? Let’s take a quick look at just one part of a turbine...

Many WindTurbines use2000± Poundsof Rare Earth Elementsper rated MW. So what?

The processing ofRare Earth Elements involves dozens of steps, of caustic chemical baths,or blast furnace separations. Each of these results in a waste stream of severely polluted air, water, and residue.

Read for Yourself...

The processing of the Rare Earth Elements, for just one 300 MW wind project...1) destroys 60,000± square meters of vegetation,2) generates 18,000,000± cubic meters of highly toxic air pollution,3) pollutes 86,000,000± gallons of wastewater (making it poisonous),4) produces 1,800,000,000± pounds of contaminated tailing sands, &5) results in 300,000± pounds of radioactive waste. © john droz, jr.

Yes, that’s right: processing the REEsused by just one 300 MW wind project’s turbinesresult in 300,000± pounds of radioactive waste! © john droz, jr.

After carefully looking into just this ONE turbine component, reconsider the following marketing claims:1 - Is Wind Energy really “renewable”?2 - Is Wind Energy really “sustainable”?3 - Does Wind Energy really give us energy “independence”? The inescapable answer is NO!

Remember, the REEenvironmental impactis just ONE component of these turbines. There are otheradverse environmental consequences as well.

LIKE THIS

The Bird Environmental Issue with Offshore Wind

The Fish Environmental Issue with Offshore Wind

So, is Wind Energy Really Green? An objective look says NO!

As time goes on, SOME environmentalists are speaking out — “Industrial wind projects don’t work. They produce a trickle of electricity at a vast cost to the consumer. They desecrate the landscape and make people’s lives a misery. And they don’t even cut carbon emissions. They are literally a waste of space…” Struan Stevenson: Chairman of the European Parliament’s Climate Change, Biodiversity & Sustainable Development Intergroup (11/11/11)

Part 3:Economics Explained

What Wind Energy Is Really All About

E-V-E-R-Y-T-H-I-N-Gabout the economics here is problematic!

Does wind energy provide economical electricity ?NO, not compared to conventional sources.Look at the real economics from three perspectives — a) Total Costs = higher than conventional sources. b) Ratepayer Costs = higher than conventional sources. c) Taxpayer Subsidies = higher than all conventional sources, combined!

Financial Comparison “a” Total Costs (Capital + Operation + Fuel + Transmission)

Power Sources Total Costs Capital Operation Fuel Transmission {Wind costs do NOT take into account any of the extra wind costs imposed on the system,ratepayers or taxpayers, like: for augmenting generation, for extra transmission lines needed, for other ancillary grid requirements, for decommissioning, etc.} Nuclear Geothermal Gas w CCS Coal w CSS Onshore Wind Offshore Wind EIA’s 2009 Estimated Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources, 2016 © john droz, jr.

Financial Comparison “b”Utility Ratepayer Costs

More real world evidence from NC utility experts, about the real cost of wind energy:onshore = 2-3 times moreoffshore = 4-5 times more

What’s the Correlation with Higher Wind Energy Usage and Residential Electricity Rates?4035 Denmark Bad Renewables % ¢/KWH (2007 Data)30 Germany2520 Spain15 US10 Canada 5

Financial Comparison “c” Taxpayer Costs

$4,981 MAnnual Federal TAXPAYER Subsidies of Electrical Energy Sources: Totals 2010 US Energy Information Administration Subsidy Report: July 2011 [Direct + Tax + R&D +Electricity Support] Note that the total 2010 subsidies for wind energy exceed the totals for all the other conventional sources COMBINED! $1,189 M $2,234 M $654 M $215 M $4,981 M Coal Nuclear Nat Gas Hydro Wind

Some utilities are now starting to speak out.Here is a statewide ad run by Idaho Power: “In the simplest of terms, special interest groups and wind developers are asking you to pay more for a less reliable product. And that just isn’t right.”

President & COO of Duke’s US Electric business, says: “It doesn’t matter how clean it is, if it’s not affordable or reliable.”

But what about local economics?

To begin with,all “enticements” are with your own money! Remember What Your Dad Said: There’s No Free Lunch!

To ACCURATELY know local economics,we need to get valid answers to four questions:1) Exactly how much of the jobs and economic claims are guaranteed?2) Specifically how much of the guaranteed jobs and economic benefits will go to North Carolina citizens?3) What are the NET jobs and economic benefits to North Carolina?4) Are there other resulting benefits or liabilities from such a project?

Question #1:Exactly how much of the developer’s job and economic claims are guaranteed?Answer: None.

Question #2:Specifically how much of the guaranteed jobs and economic benefits will go toNorth Carolina citizens?Answer: We have no idea. Most initial jobs will be to imported specialists.

Question #3:What are the NET jobs and economic benefits to North Carolina?Answer: There will be job and economic losses. See next slides!

Local Job Impact

Here is a comprehensive study about how wind development affects Tourism...

Here are the study’s conclusions about how wind development affects Tourism...

Here are the latest Carteret County Tourism Jobs data... 2990 jobs x 4% = 120 jobs lost Over the 20± year life of the wind project: = 2400 job years lost (just related to tourism, just in Carteret County)

Local Economic Consequences

Here are the latest Carteret County Tourism Income data... $271.3 million x 4% = $11 million lost / per year. Over the 20± year life of the wind project: = $220 million lost (just related to tourism, just in Carteret County)

Carteret County & North Carolina Offshore Wind Impact Net Annual Job Loss Net Annual Economic Loss

Is There Independent Correlation of These Conclusions?

Independent Verification of the Jobs Conclusions:

Independent Verification of the Economics Conclusions:

A Different Independent Study Concludes the Same

Question #4:Are there other resulting benefits or liabilitiesfrom such a project?Answer:Yes, there are other substantial liabilities. Forexample, the many millions of dollars beinggiven to this developer (e.g. through tax credits): a) increase our country’s indebtedness, and b) is money borrowed from China. Are either of these in our interest to support?

Net Economic Assessment

Is The Sierra Cluba Credible Source of Wind Information?

Is the Sierra Club’s website MISLEADING? Note 1: Their page is about offshore windand they’re claiming that progress is being made in that regard in NC — however they are usingan onshore wind project as evidence!

Is the Sierra Club’s website MISLEADING? Note 2:The onshore wind project the Sierra Club is using as an example of “offshore wind progress” in NC,has been stopped dead in its tracks (due to economics).

1 Puzzling statements from the Sierra Club’s website:1 - There is zero correlation between POTENTIAL and PRACTICAL.The question is not “Can we do something?”in the energy area, but rather: “Does it make technical, economic and environmental sense?”When analyzed from the scientific perspective, Offshore Wind simply does not make scientific sense.

2 Puzzling statements from the Sierra Club’s website:2 - For perspective, this is 20,000± turbines. For further perspective, the total ofcurrent offshore wind energy for ALL the rest of the world is about 2 GW…Despite the statement here, 58 GW of offshore wind energy would NOTsupply 130% of the state’s energy demands, as those needs are 24/7/365 —and wind energy is intermittent, and could never do that.

3 Puzzling statements from the Sierra Club’s website:3 - There is no correlation between adding offshore wind energy and replacingcoal. No coal facility in the world has been replaced by wind energy. Why isthis is misleading connection made? Because the Sierra Club has been paid tocampaign against coal. Considering that, how objective can they be?

Ahhh Now I Get It! This is where the money is likely coming from to pay for the Sierra Club’s NC offshore wind energy website, and the sales solicitations to NC communities. To qualify for these funds there probably has to be an anti-coal message in them. That’s likely why this is imbeddedin their offshore wind sales pitches.

A man cannot be expected to understand something,when his income depends on his not understanding it. — Upton Sinclair

If the Sierra Club REALLY wanted to replace coal,they would be advocating nuclear. Consider this...

4 5 Puzzling statements from the Sierra Club’s website:4 - Qualified, independent, and objective experts have concluded that offshorewind will result in major job losses, as well as significant economic losses.5 - There is no proof provided for this specious assertion, which (due to thespecialization required by this industry) is very unlikely to be true.

Re prior point #5Here is a country installing a lot of offshorewind — yet (contrary to the Sierra Club’sassurances) there have been very few localjobs or economic development resulting.

The Sierra Club’smain justification for promoting offshore wind energy, is JOBS. So Carefully Consider the Following...

Offshore Wind Jobs Fact #1No Jobs (or economic development) claim has any merit unless it accurately considers the NET impact. There is zero evidence in the Sierra Club’s offshore wind presentation, or on their website,that they have burdened themselves with this obligation.

Offshore Wind Jobs Fact #2There is nothing — no program, no hobby, no vice, no crime — that does not create jobs. For example, tsunamis, computer viruses and robbing convenience store clerks all create jobs. So since that claim applies to all it is an argument in favor of none. Instead of providing evidence of the merits of an enterprise, a jobs claim is a de facto admission that one has a specious case. — energy attorney Chris Horner

Offshore Wind Jobs Fact #3The US has lost most of its jobs to other countries primarily due to economics: low cost labor. Our businesses have one major economic benefit left to counter more job loss: low cost electricity. Why would we voluntarily give this up by reverting to more expensive electricity sources???

Offshore Wind Jobs Fact #4By their written admission to me, the Sierra Club’s NC jobs claims are based on projections by EWEA (European Wind Energy Association). How objective are wind job projections from the wind industry’s main lobbyist???

This is the point where we are now.Making the wrong choice will cost us for 20+ years.

North Carolina can be a National Leader in:1) Eighteenth century ideas like horse transportation and wind energy (buggy whip manufacturing, blacksmith and windmill jobs) OR 2) State-of-the art, Scientifically Sound energy solutions (like geothermal energy or Small Modular Reactors)

The Wind Project Developer has ONE Objective: to squeeze the County & its citizens for EVERYTHING they can get out of them.

We can chose the path thru thedark green forest. After all, the marketeers assured us that it would bean easy shortcut to get some“found money.”

The salesmenpromised us that the trip will be pleasant and successful. Any animals along the waywill be our friend!

Of course there were no guarantees.Once we go downthis path, we are on our own.

Don’t Take The Bait

Offshore Wind Energy

by John Droz on Jan 17, 2011

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Offshore Wind Energy — Presentation Transcript