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Our Energy Policy:  From Science,  or Lobbyists?              John Droz, jr.     Physicist & Environmental Advocate       ...
Make SURE to View This Presentation    in the FULL SCREEN Mode!        Click the “FULL” icon   in the lower right hand cor...
Do NOT click on the Triangle     below to run this presentation!                Instead,use your keyboard arrow keys to na...
Part 1
Our Energy Policies — from Lobbyists or ScienceThis is a two part presentation given to North Carolina Legislators on 11/2...
Everything You’ll See Today   —and a LOT more —        is Online at:  EnergyPresentation.Info
Th                                                Th  is                                                is       is       ...
There are two things that are more difficult than making a public speech:climbing a wall which is leaning toward you, andk...
The brain is a wonderful organ. It starts working the moment you get up in themorning and it doesn’t stop until you get in...
In short, my position is that — 1) we do have environmental and energy issues, and 2) these matters should be solved scien...
It’s Lobbyists vs Science—and Science is Losing
What Is    Critical   Thinking?A thorough, open-minded, logical effort           to examine a claim,   in the light of app...
vs GroupThink  {When it comes to electrical energy solutions,most environmental groups fall into this category.}          ...
My Three Hats Here:#1 - Physicist#2 - Economist#3 - Environmentalist
A Few Turbines in Upstate NY     {The energy example we are going to review here is Industrial Wind Energy.When I first he...
The bottom line is that Wind Energy Fails to Deliver the Goods By this I mean that: 1) wind energy is not a technically so...
The Soundbite:Wind Energy = High Cost, Low Benefits
Science is a PROCESS that Works Like This:When a new idea is proposed as a potential solution to a problem,it is up to the...
The Process is called the Scientific Method —         which involves a:                      1) comprehensive,            ...
Just because a scientist makes an assertion,    does not make that claim scientific.  There are thousands of scientists wh...
{Let’s go back into history to see how we ended up with the electric grid system we have today...The first practical use o...
The Six Principle Requirements for CommercialElectricity Generating Sources are that:     1   -   they provide large amoun...
Fuel Sources for US Electricity Generation in 2010                     EIA Report (2011)                                 T...
Each of the current conventional sources     meet ALL of the prior six essential criteria    As a result, Today — and a Hu...
SO WHAT’S THE   PROBLEM?
A NEW element has been added:environmental impact     (especially emissions, like CO2)
Alternative sources of commercial electricitythat just claim to meet this new super-criteria   (to make a consequential im...
Let’s See How        Industrial Wind Powerstacks up against the Power Generation        Six Historical Criteria,    and th...
#1 - Does wind energy provide large amounts of electricity ? Yes, it could. However, its effectiveness from most perspecti...
2 - Does wind energy provide reliable & predictable electricity ? NO. Despite the wind industry’s absolute best efforts it...
3 - Does wind energy provide dispatchable electricity ? NO. Due to its unpredictability, wind can not be counted on to pro...
Our Energy Control OptionsCoal & Nuclear    Gas & Hydro    Wind & Solar
4 - Does wind energy dependably provide one or more of the    grid demand elements ? NO. 1 - All electricity produced must...
5 - Is wind energy compact ? NO. To even approximate the nameplate power of a conventional facility, like nuclear, takes w...
6 - Does wind energy provide economical electricity ? NO, not compared to conventional sources. We will look at the econom...
Financial Comparison #1     Total Costs   (Capital + Operation  + Fuel + Transmission)
Power Sources Total Costs                  Capital         Operation           Fuel        Transmission     {Wind costs do...
Financial Comparison #2   Taxpayer Costs
Some Annual Federal Subsidies                                                   $52.43  of Electrical Energy Sources: per ...
How about looking at it from a Totals perspective...                                                                      ...
In ADDITION to the generous Federal subsidies,   many states offer financial incentives for wind power, like:              ...
Financial Comparison #3Utility Ratepayer Costs       {For five representative countries.}                                 ...
What’s the Correlation with         Higher Wind Energy Usage      and Residential Electricity Rates?4035   Denmark        ...
What’s the Correlation with       Higher GOOD Renewables Usage      and Residential Electricity Rates?4035   Denmark      ...
As we raise the cost of electricity, remember that   Quality of Life STRONGLY Correlates to Electricity ConsumptionCIA Wor...
7 - Does wind energy make a consequential reduction of CO2 ? NO! No independent scientific study has ever proven that wind...
CO2 in Perspective — Worldwide Contribution to CO2 Reductions               Since 1973                                    ...
CO2 in Perspective —                       Consider This...                              Wind is 13 times the cost of Nucl...
Yes, you heard this right:The U.S. is now on the path to spend s-e-v-e-r-a-l TRILLION dollars     on an electrical power s...
So how did we get into theEnergy Ditch?Same answer as to howWall Street got into theFinancial Ditch:      GREED           ...
Industrial Wind Energy       will not be an acceptable source     until all seven requirements are met.As of now, Wind Ene...
A good example of getting away from the Science      is the Renewable Portfolio Standard:                               RP...
RPS is Like Forcing 12.5% of our Cargo Ships  to Revert to Being Wind Powered Vessels
The Claimed Financial Benefits                from an RPS:              1 - Economic Development — very little            ...
RPS is a Reverse Robin Hood:Robbing the Poor To Feed the Wealthy
Our Electrical Power Choices are —1: a 1 GW Nuclear Facility         — OR —2: a 1 GW Wind Energy Project+ a 1 GW Gas (low ...
A key question:        Does this sound like aWise National Electrical Energy Policy?1 - Spend something like a Trillion do...
Does wind power’s abysmal failuremean that all “renewables” are similarly poor?                           NO!      Each ne...
An Example of a Creative Solution:         Mini-Nuclear                      Some Advantages:                      — Relia...
Critical Thinking      Non-Science      = Non-Sense
Relevant Carl Sagan Quotes To Ponder —1 - We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology,    in whic...
As a LONG TIME Environmental Advocate,  I can say that this “environmentalism”     has simply gotten out of control...
This is the logical next step    for this situation...
Bevery wary    of Pied Piper Profiteer$
Sound Scientific Solutions       is the Umbrella position that covers             ALL important concerns:TECHNICAL        ...
NOT!WindPowerFacts.Info          Thank You!
Part 2
NC Senate Bill-3Does this make technical, economic, and environmental sense?                          In other words:is th...
Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same functionas pain in the human body. It calls atte...
1 - Does any RPS [Renewable Portfolio Standard] make sense?2 - Was the LaCapra report an objective assessment?3 - What is ...
The length of this document defends it well against the risk of its being read.                                           ...
{This was the key decision point.The lobbyists said to take the shortcut      through the green forest.}
NC chose the political path thru  the green forest,as we were told that    it would be abeneficial shortcut     to get to ...
The lobbyistsassure us that the     trip will be   pleasant and    successful.   The animals  along the waywill be our fri...
Of course there were  no guarantees. Once we go down this path, we are    on our own.           (Photo credit: Shlomi Niss...
However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.                                              ...
The two largest sources of CO2 emissions     are transportation and electricity.    SB-3 addresses the electricity sector....
Let’s Mandate that 12.5% of all NC vehicles   Revert to Being Horse Drawn by 2021
Let’s call this mandate for NC to change to12.5% horse-drawn vehicles by 2021: SB-H.  This edict is rationalized as a way ...
And ALL of that would be TRUE!Since the financials are the current hot button,  let’s just look at the economic developmen...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...          North Carolina has some 8 million       personal and commercial mot...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...            There would be hundreds of new horse farms.This would provide man...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...      Many thousands of acres would be utilized for pasture land.The purchasi...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...       Thousands of jobs would be created for grooms and trainers.
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...        Thousands of new blacksmith businesses would be started.
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...        Hundreds of new wheelwright businesses would be created.
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...       Thousands of new horse medical providers would be needed.
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...       Enormous amounts of new hay and other food will be needed,   all amoun...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...   The new NC horses would require about 20 million gallons of water  a day, ...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...         There would be hundreds of new auction houses started,   to provide ...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...  Tens of thousands of jobs would be created in the new horse carriage       ...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...   Many people wouldn’t feel comfortable in driving their own vehicles       ...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...  A million± garages would have to be modified to accommodate horses.
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...  Instead of parking garages, these would be built in every community.
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...     Tens of thousands of carpenters, etc would be employed to build         ...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...      Thousands of new horse supply stores would be newly created.
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...Thousands of outlets would add horse food & supplies to what they carry.
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...        Instead of 7-11’s, thousands of new roadside stops would be          ...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...            Hundreds of regional supply centers would be setup.
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...           Tens of thousands of new horse vans would be needed.          Thes...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...      There would be thousands of new jobs in just the cleanup part.
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...   Oh - don’t forget that the buggy whip business would be resurrected.
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...      A new big business would be horse mortuaries and cemeteries.
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... My list of NC jobs and economic benefits from mandating horse-drawnvehicles i...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...         SB-H’s mandating 12.5% horse-drawn vehicles by 2021                w...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...            An Asheville business uses a tractor trailer             to daily...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...         How many horse carriages will it take to equal          the reliabil...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...                                 Would it be 25?   1 -Would the cost of sendi...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...                                      NO!   No matter what our good intention...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...             Once you thoroughly understand        that horse drawn vehicles ...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...                              Progress is about                              ...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...          How many wind turbines will it take to equal          the reliabili...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...    No matter what our good intentions are,    no matter how much taxpayer su...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...                          The $64,000,000 Question Is:            Is it wise ...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...                          The $64,000,000 Question Is:            Is it wise ...
Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...                          The $64,000,000 Question Is:            Is it wise ...
So, SB-H (compared to SB-3) would —  1 - reduce more of our fossil fuel usage,  2 - promote more energy diversity,  3 - ha...
In almost EVERY regard,  SB-H has more benefits than does SB-3.So why aren’t the environmental advocates      aggressively...
Because citizens and businesses have a better       understanding of transportation,    and they can easily see the downsi...
So, does an RPS make sense?A genuine scientific assessment of SB-3 or SB-H          would show that there are          man...
But What About the LaCapra Report?
Indeed, what about it?There are three questions here:1) are these people appropriate to give a scientific assessment of SB...
1-Are these people appropriate to give a scientific assessment of SB-3?                    Fact: LaCapra and their two ass...
A simple question that should prove it: What would happen if they concluded renewables were ahigh-cost, low-benefit option...
Some five years later theyare still using this report  as a marketing tool.
1-Were these people appropriate to give a scientific assessment of SB-3?                                 NO
BTW, there was free qualified assistance available.For example, the John Locke Foundation wrote an excellent report:      ...
2 - Is their report an objective assessment of SB-3?    How would conflicted consultants deal with the fact that there is ...
1 - They avoid dealing with REAL Science.In this 154 page report, the word “Science” appears zero times!
2 - Some facts are fudged.For instance, there is actually no such thing as wind energy by itself, yet all of the compariso...
E.g., wind is shown here directly compared to conventional sources
3 - Some comparisons are inappropriate.For instance, some comparisons are made vs doing nothing,where a more meaningful co...
This is presented as a MAJOR selling point for SB-3:             that CO2 would be saved. The facts are that —1) no scient...
4 - The majority of assumptions are favorably biased.  For instance, wind capacity factor information came fromdevelopers ...
Here are LaCapra’s     assumed Capacity Factors which are 50%± more than real  world results.
Here are LaCapra’s       assumed   levelized costs which are 50%±of EIA’s estimates!
Here are their assumed fuel costsActual fuel costs are  quite a bit lowerthan their minimum    projection.
More real world evidence    from utility experts,that say LaCapra’s economic   conclusions are wrong:
President & COO of Duke’s US Electric business, says:                     “It doesn’t matter how clean it is,             ...
Other utilities are now starting to speak out.Here is one statewide ad run by Idaho Power:                             “In...
Other utilities are now starting to speak out.Here is another statewide ad run by Idaho Power:                           “...
An even more  disturbing assessment           from a     utility executive.When National Grid’s CEO was challenged about i...
As time goes on, more leaders are speaking out —   “Industrial wind projects don’t work. They produce a trickle of    elec...
Wind Marketers Frequently Promote NC’s “Wind Resources”LaCapra: “North Carolina has a diverse mix of untapped renewable en...
Here is what the US Department of Energy says:"Areas with annual average wind speeds around 6.5 m/s andgreater at 80-m hei...
This same gov’t                                 report shows that                                     99.87% (!)          ...
The question is not “Can we do something?”             in the energy area, but rather:“Does it make technical, economic an...
“Polling data showed that after reading arguments for and against wind, wind lost support...concerns about wind energy’s c...
Businesses Against Offshore Wind
Another $64,000,000 Question Is:     Is it wise to have public policy primarily driven by resource availability?        In...
5 - They use a software program to draw conclusions.            Substituting software for real research is ok:    a) IF it...
Here is important observations about IMPLAN by a UNC expert:
2 - Is the LaCapra report an objective assessment of SB-3?                                  NO
This independent critique of SB-3 is worth reading  as it is more objectiveabout economic matters.
3 - What are the best ways going forward?a - Scrap Senate Bill-3    (the 12.5%/2021 part, as it makes less sense than does...
To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often.                                                             — W...
The Process  Is The Problem!See <<http://www.northnet.org/brvmug/WindPower/Its_The_Process.pdf>>                        fo...
— NC is Facing Another Choice —             We can be a National Leader in:— buggy whip manufacturing and blacksmith jobs ...
This was the point where we lost our way.We can learn from this by fixing the process.
That was the end of the NC presentation  For more information about electricity and the environment, see                  ...
Energy & SB3 Presentation to NC Legislators
Energy & SB3 Presentation to NC Legislators
Energy & SB3 Presentation to NC Legislators
Energy & SB3 Presentation to NC Legislators
Energy & SB3 Presentation to NC Legislators
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Energy & SB3 Presentation to NC Legislators

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This is a two part presentation given to NC Legislators. Part 1 is the abbreviated version of EnergyPresentation.Info. Part 2 is a critique of NC's RES, Senate Bill 3.

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  • In these days of waning public capital, it seems ludicrous to spend such on questionable energy production sources. Al the more ludicrous to assert that CO2 emission must be curbed. As for 'Green Energy, It's patently clear from a technical and engineering standpoint (politicians please note) that the 'payback', especially of tax revenues dissipated, will be decades if things go very right or just plain 'never' if they don't. Those who deny this are scofflaws. Sorry to be so blunt, but someone has to declare in effect that 'This emperor (green energy) Has No Clothes'.
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Transcript of "Energy & SB3 Presentation to NC Legislators"

  1. 1. Our Energy Policy: From Science, or Lobbyists? John Droz, jr. Physicist & Environmental Advocate NC Legislators 11/28/11 (rev: 12/3/11)
  2. 2. Make SURE to View This Presentation in the FULL SCREEN Mode! Click the “FULL” icon in the lower right hand corner.
  3. 3. Do NOT click on the Triangle below to run this presentation! Instead,use your keyboard arrow keys to navigate. This will allow you to proceed at your own pace.
  4. 4. Part 1
  5. 5. Our Energy Policies — from Lobbyists or ScienceThis is a two part presentation given to North Carolina Legislators on 11/28/11.The purpose of Part One is to have an abbreviated (20 minute) discussion about various key aspects of the US electricity grid, and theelectrical power source choices we have. This is a complicated matter, so I have tried to strike a balance between being too technical and toosimplified. The FULL version of this part is EnergyPresentation.Info.The underlying message is that our energy decisions should be made on the basis of sound SCIENCE — not on what lobbyists say.Hopefully you have already been to my website: “WindPowerFacts.Info” which has other useful supporting information.My expectation is that after legislators get more informed — and do some Critical Thinking — that they will be in a much better position toexecute informed cost-beneficial energy and environmental policies.Part Two is a north Carolina specific discussion about the merits of Senate Bill 3 (NC’s version of an RPS [Renewable Portfolio Standard]). Alot of that (especially the horse transportation part) directly applies to any other state’s or country’s RPS.In my live presentation there is commentary that accompanies each slide, and this is not included here. Since I don’t have the space toinclude all of those, I identified the slides where the remarks were most important, and added them after those slides. [These “elaboratedon” slides are identified with an asterisk in the upper right hand corner. On a few other slides I added short comments between the{...} brackets directly on the slides.]Feel free to use this material to make a presentation to your own representatives. In any case after you go through this, I will be glad topersonally respond to any emails you send me: “aaprjohn@northnet.org”.Please see my brief “resume,” the copyright notice, disclaimer, contact information, references and credits: all at the end ofEnergyPresentation.Info. [Note that I will indicate updates on the material by a revision letter on the first slide.] If you like what you see,please pass it on to other open-minded people, plus your federal, state and local representatives. — ENJOY! john droz, jr. © john droz, jr.
  6. 6. Everything You’ll See Today —and a LOT more — is Online at: EnergyPresentation.Info
  7. 7. Th Th is is is isn m ’t e.. m . e.. . {Please remember that I’m just a backwoods scientist — not a professional communicator.} © john droz, jr.
  8. 8. There are two things that are more difficult than making a public speech:climbing a wall which is leaning toward you, andkissing a girl who is leaning away from you. — Winston Churchill
  9. 9. The brain is a wonderful organ. It starts working the moment you get up in themorning and it doesn’t stop until you get into the office. — Robert Frost
  10. 10. In short, my position is that — 1) we do have environmental and energy issues, and 2) these matters should be solved scientifically (that means using the Scientific Method).
  11. 11. It’s Lobbyists vs Science—and Science is Losing
  12. 12. What Is Critical Thinking?A thorough, open-minded, logical effort to examine a claim, in the light of applicable evidence. One of the key ingredients of true science — and critical thinking — is SKEPTICISM
  13. 13. vs GroupThink {When it comes to electrical energy solutions,most environmental groups fall into this category.} © john droz, jr.
  14. 14. My Three Hats Here:#1 - Physicist#2 - Economist#3 - Environmentalist
  15. 15. A Few Turbines in Upstate NY {The energy example we are going to review here is Industrial Wind Energy.When I first heard about wind energy, I was a supporter. Quite frankly, I never likedthe looks of turbines, but felt that we would have to live with the unsightliness as atrade-off for the good I initially assumed they were doing. Then I did some research, and Critical Thinking. My conclusion now (as a scientist, economist, and environmentalist) is that Industrial Wind Energy is not based on scientific proof.} © john droz, jr.
  16. 16. The bottom line is that Wind Energy Fails to Deliver the Goods By this I mean that: 1) wind energy is not a technically sound solution to provide us power, or to meaningfully reduce global warming, and 2) wind energy is not an economically viable source of power on its own, and 3) wind energy is not environmentally responsible. {These three basic criteria haven’t been selected to make wind energy look bad, but are whatshould be used to evaluate the legitimacy of ANY proposed new alternative source of energy.} © john droz, jr.
  17. 17. The Soundbite:Wind Energy = High Cost, Low Benefits
  18. 18. Science is a PROCESS that Works Like This:When a new idea is proposed as a potential solution to a problem,it is up to the advocates to PROVE its efficacy (not the other way around).
  19. 19. The Process is called the Scientific Method — which involves a: 1) comprehensive, 2) objective, 3) transparent, and 4) empirical based analysis. In the case of Wind Energy, this has never been done!
  20. 20. Just because a scientist makes an assertion, does not make that claim scientific. There are thousands of scientists whoare promoting personal or political agendas!What makes a claim “scientific” is that it has been subjected to the Scientific Method.
  21. 21. {Let’s go back into history to see how we ended up with the electric grid system we have today...The first practical use of electricity, in the late 1800s, is generally attributed to Thomas Edison(a founder of General Electric). Of course there were actually dozens of other people who contributedto making commercial electricity a reality. And there were a LOT of formidable hurdles to overcome.} Edison Electric Company - 1882 © john droz, jr.
  22. 22. The Six Principle Requirements for CommercialElectricity Generating Sources are that: 1 - they provide large amounts of electricity; 2 - they provide reliable and predictable electricity; 3 - they provide dispatchable* electricity; 4 - they service one or more grid demand elements**; 5 - their facility is compact***; 6 - they provide economical electricity. * Dispatchable = can generate higher or lower amounts of power on-demand.** Grid Demand Elements = Base Load, Load Following, and Peak Load.*** Compact is the ability to site an electrical facility on a relatively small and well-defined footprint, preferably near high demand, e.g. cities.
  23. 23. Fuel Sources for US Electricity Generation in 2010 EIA Report (2011) The next time you hear an ad about how wind energy will help with our dependence on oil, remember that less than 1% of our electricity comes from oil.
  24. 24. Each of the current conventional sources meet ALL of the prior six essential criteria As a result, Today — and a Hundred Years from now —these conventional sources can provide ALL of the electrical needs of our society, while continuing to meet all six criteria. Note: We Have ALWAYS Been Energy Independent Here!
  25. 25. SO WHAT’S THE PROBLEM?
  26. 26. A NEW element has been added:environmental impact (especially emissions, like CO2)
  27. 27. Alternative sources of commercial electricitythat just claim to meet this new super-criteria (to make a consequential impact on CO2)don’t even have to provethat they actually do it!
  28. 28. Let’s See How Industrial Wind Powerstacks up against the Power Generation Six Historical Criteria, and then how it does regarding the new item: Emissions ...
  29. 29. #1 - Does wind energy provide large amounts of electricity ? Yes, it could. However, its effectiveness from most perspectives is inferior. For instance, because of the wide fluctuations of wind, it only produces, on average, about 30% of its nameplate power. This irregularity is compounded by the fact that there is no way to economically store what is produced for later use. Another example of its dilutedness is that it takes over one thousand times the amount of land for wind power to produce a roughly equivalent amount of energy as does a nuclear facility.
  30. 30. 2 - Does wind energy provide reliable & predictable electricity ? NO. Despite the wind industry’s absolute best efforts it is not reliable or predictable compared to the standards set by our conventional electrical sources. A wind turbine’s output varies continuously between zero and 100% of its rated capacity, extremely sensitive to small changes in wind speed — and it only operates in a limited range of wind speed. Additionally, wind power is often not available when power is needed most.
  31. 31. 3 - Does wind energy provide dispatchable electricity ? NO. Due to its unpredictability, wind can not be counted on to provide power on-demand — in other words, on a human-defined schedule.
  32. 32. Our Energy Control OptionsCoal & Nuclear Gas & Hydro Wind & Solar
  33. 33. 4 - Does wind energy dependably provide one or more of the grid demand elements ? NO. 1 - All electricity produced must be used immediately, as currently there is no way to economically store electricity (and nothing is on the horizon either), 2 - The primary job of Grid operators is to provide a SUPPLY that exactly meets DEMAND on a second by second basis, 3 - The three types of DEMAND are: a) Base Load b) Load Following c) Peak Load
  34. 34. 5 - Is wind energy compact ? NO. To even approximate the nameplate power of a conventional facility, like nuclear, takes well over a thousand times the amount of area. “Connecting” multiple wind projects spread over vast areas is a Tinkertoy “solution” which also completely undermines the objective to be a concentrated power source. Another “feature” of wind power is that most of the windiest sites (and available land) are a LONG way from where the electricity is needed. This will result in thousands of miles of huge unsightly transmission towers and cables, at an enormous expense to citizens — much of it completely unnecessary.
  35. 35. 6 - Does wind energy provide economical electricity ? NO, not compared to conventional sources. We will look at the economics from three (3) perspectives — a) Total Costs (Capital + Operation/Maintenance + Fuel + Transmission) b) Taxpayer funded incentives c) Ratepayer costs Note that in addition to these there are still more wind power necessitated expenses (like the cost of a backup power source, the extra transmission lines needed, etc.).
  36. 36. Financial Comparison #1 Total Costs (Capital + Operation + Fuel + Transmission)
  37. 37. Power Sources Total Costs Capital Operation Fuel Transmission {Wind costs do NOT take into account any costs: for backup generation, OR for extra transmission lines needed, OR for other ancillary requirements, OR for decommissioning.} Nuclear Geothermal Gas w CCS Coal w CSS Onshore Wind Offshore Wind EIA — Estimated Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources, 2016Note: this does not show the true cost of wind, which is wind plus a conventional source. john droz, jr. ©
  38. 38. Financial Comparison #2 Taxpayer Costs
  39. 39. Some Annual Federal Subsidies $52.43 of Electrical Energy Sources: per MWH 2010 US Energy Information Administration Subsidy Report: July 2011 [Direct + Tax + R&D +Electricity Support] $0.64 $2.78 $0.63 $0.84 $52.43 Coal Nuclear Nat Gas Hydro Wind
  40. 40. How about looking at it from a Totals perspective... $4,981 M Some Annual Federal Subsidies of Electrical Energy Sources: Totals 2010 US Energy Information Administration Subsidy Report: July 2011 [Direct + Tax + R&D +Electricity Support] Note that the total 2010 subsidies for wind energy exceed the totals for all the other conventional sources COMBINED! $1,189 M $2,234 M $654 M $215 M $4,981 M Coal Nuclear Nat Gas Hydro Wind
  41. 41. In ADDITION to the generous Federal subsidies, many states offer financial incentives for wind power, like: 1. Personal Tax Incentives 2. Corporate Tax Incentives 3. Sales Tax Incentives 4. Property Tax Incentives 5. Rebates 6. Grants 7. Loans 8. Industry Support 9. Bonds, and 10. Production Incentives.On top of these financial incentives, state and local governments have established rules,regulations and policies (like RPS), with the purpose of encouraging or mandating the development and increased sale and consumption of energy from renewable sources.
  42. 42. Financial Comparison #3Utility Ratepayer Costs {For five representative countries.} © john droz, jr.
  43. 43. What’s the Correlation with Higher Wind Energy Usage and Residential Electricity Rates?4035 Denmark Bad Renewables % ¢/KWH (2007 Data)30 Germany2520 Spain15 US10 Canada 5
  44. 44. What’s the Correlation with Higher GOOD Renewables Usage and Residential Electricity Rates?4035 Denmark Good Renewables % ¢/KWH (2007 Data)30 Germany25 N20 Spain15 US10 Canada Note: the scale 5 of the right Y axis (green) is 4x the left Y axis.
  45. 45. As we raise the cost of electricity, remember that Quality of Life STRONGLY Correlates to Electricity ConsumptionCIA World Factbook 2007 © john droz, jr.
  46. 46. 7 - Does wind energy make a consequential reduction of CO2 ? NO! No independent scientific study has ever proven that wind energy saves a meaningful amount of CO2. In fact, the most independent scientific study done (by the National Academy of Sciences) says the U.S. CO2 savings by 2020 will amount to only 1.8%. [An EIA report for the US Congress concluded that CO2 savings would be about 1.3%.] These are trivial quantities! [The Bentek study concluded that CO2 emissions would actually increase in many cases.]
  47. 47. CO2 in Perspective — Worldwide Contribution to CO2 Reductions Since 1973 100 75 50 25 0 Renewables Generation Transmission Nuclear Power
  48. 48. CO2 in Perspective — Consider This... Wind is 13 times the cost of Nuclear!
  49. 49. Yes, you heard this right:The U.S. is now on the path to spend s-e-v-e-r-a-l TRILLION dollars on an electrical power source that FAILS five out of six of our historically important power generation criteria, AND has no scientific proof that it meets the new emissions criterion!
  50. 50. So how did we get into theEnergy Ditch?Same answer as to howWall Street got into theFinancial Ditch: GREED & IGNORANCE
  51. 51. Industrial Wind Energy will not be an acceptable source until all seven requirements are met.As of now, Wind Energy is not a legitimate part of any serious energy solution. Power Pole Typical Tree Transmission Line Large Wind Turbine (2.5 MW size)
  52. 52. A good example of getting away from the Science is the Renewable Portfolio Standard: RPS In effect, this arbitrary and artificial Political mandate forces utilities to use wind power — even though it does not materially benefit 1) the Electrical Grid, 2) the Environment, or 3) Rate Payers. It does however, materially benefit lobbyists and the multi-national companies that employ them.
  53. 53. RPS is Like Forcing 12.5% of our Cargo Ships to Revert to Being Wind Powered Vessels
  54. 54. The Claimed Financial Benefits from an RPS: 1 - Economic Development — very little 2 - Price (Rate) Suppression — zero 3 - Environmental — tiny These conclusions are based on NY state’s own analysis!To get these “Benefits” NY is spending something like Two Billion Dollars... See EnergyPresentation.Info for a much more detailed explanation of this.
  55. 55. RPS is a Reverse Robin Hood:Robbing the Poor To Feed the Wealthy
  56. 56. Our Electrical Power Choices are —1: a 1 GW Nuclear Facility — OR —2: a 1 GW Wind Energy Project+ a 1 GW Gas (low efficiency) Facility Lowest Total Cost = #1 Lowest KWH Rate = #1 Lowest CO2 Emissions = #1 Least Transmission Lines = #1 SCORECARD: Least Environmental Harm = #1 Least Human Harm = #1 Most Compact = #1 Most Renewable = #1 Fastest Online = #2
  57. 57. A key question: Does this sound like aWise National Electrical Energy Policy?1 - Spend something like a Trillion dollars,2 - Increase utility rates substantially,3 - Cover hundreds of thousands of acres of land with wind turbines,4 - Have a thousand+ miles of new transmission lines, and5 - Cause numerous hardships to humans and the environment. Net Benefit: Save 2%± CO2 This is the path we are currently on...
  58. 58. Does wind power’s abysmal failuremean that all “renewables” are similarly poor? NO! Each new alternative power source needs to be objectively evaluated, independently — i.e. using the Scientific Method. From scientific literature (e.g. MIT’s 2007 report) industrial Geothermal holds significant promise.
  59. 59. An Example of a Creative Solution: Mini-Nuclear Some Advantages: — Reliable — Dispatchable — 24/7 Base Load — Compact — Economical — Very Safe — No CO2 Emissions — 1 unit = 20,000 homes — No Transmission Lines {e.g. NuScale, Toshiba}
  60. 60. Critical Thinking Non-Science = Non-Sense
  61. 61. Relevant Carl Sagan Quotes To Ponder —1 - We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology.2 - I am often amazed at how much more capability and enthusiasm for science there is among elementary school youngsters than among college students.3 - We have arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get away with it for awhile, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces.
  62. 62. As a LONG TIME Environmental Advocate, I can say that this “environmentalism” has simply gotten out of control...
  63. 63. This is the logical next step for this situation...
  64. 64. Bevery wary of Pied Piper Profiteer$
  65. 65. Sound Scientific Solutions is the Umbrella position that covers ALL important concerns:TECHNICAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL(e.g. reliability, (e.g. taxpayer cost, (e.g. CO2 savings,dispatchability, ratepayer costs, noise, flicker, transmission, agricultural impact, birds & bats, other Grid property values, other health effects, limitations) net jobs, etc.) raw material extraction and processing, etc.)
  66. 66. NOT!WindPowerFacts.Info Thank You!
  67. 67. Part 2
  68. 68. NC Senate Bill-3Does this make technical, economic, and environmental sense? In other words:is this really in the best interest of NC citizens and businesses?
  69. 69. Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same functionas pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. — Winston Churchill
  70. 70. 1 - Does any RPS [Renewable Portfolio Standard] make sense?2 - Was the LaCapra report an objective assessment?3 - What is the best way to go forward?
  71. 71. The length of this document defends it well against the risk of its being read. — Winston Churchill
  72. 72. {This was the key decision point.The lobbyists said to take the shortcut through the green forest.}
  73. 73. NC chose the political path thru the green forest,as we were told that it would be abeneficial shortcut to get to our objectives.
  74. 74. The lobbyistsassure us that the trip will be pleasant and successful. The animals along the waywill be our friends! (Photo credit: Shlomi Nissim <<http://www.shlominissim.com/gallery.asp>>)
  75. 75. Of course there were no guarantees. Once we go down this path, we are on our own. (Photo credit: Shlomi Nissim <<http://www.shlominissim.com/gallery.asp>>)
  76. 76. However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results. — Winston Churchill
  77. 77. The two largest sources of CO2 emissions are transportation and electricity. SB-3 addresses the electricity sector. Let’s consider a very close analogy wherewe take comparable action for transportation.
  78. 78. Let’s Mandate that 12.5% of all NC vehicles Revert to Being Horse Drawn by 2021
  79. 79. Let’s call this mandate for NC to change to12.5% horse-drawn vehicles by 2021: SB-H. This edict is rationalized as a way to: 1 - reduce our fossil fuel usage, 2 - promote vehicle fuel diversity, 3 - have NC be more energy independent, 4 - make NC a leader in horse power, 5 - create many new NC jobs, 6 - generate NC economic development, etc., etc.
  80. 80. And ALL of that would be TRUE!Since the financials are the current hot button, let’s just look at the economic development and new jobs claims for SB-H...
  81. 81. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... North Carolina has some 8 million personal and commercial motor vehicles. SB-H’s 12.5% mandate would result in some two million new horses in the state. (That would included ponies, horses in training, spares, etc.)
  82. 82. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... There would be hundreds of new horse farms.This would provide many construction, maintenance and service jobs.
  83. 83. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Many thousands of acres would be utilized for pasture land.The purchasing, clearing, maintaining of these would result in many jobs.
  84. 84. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Thousands of jobs would be created for grooms and trainers.
  85. 85. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Thousands of new blacksmith businesses would be started.
  86. 86. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Hundreds of new wheelwright businesses would be created.
  87. 87. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Thousands of new horse medical providers would be needed.
  88. 88. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Enormous amounts of new hay and other food will be needed, all amounting to new economic opportunities and thousand of jobs.
  89. 89. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... The new NC horses would require about 20 million gallons of water a day, so the supplying and delivery of that would be many new jobs.
  90. 90. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... There would be hundreds of new auction houses started, to provide a place for consumers and businesses to get their horses.
  91. 91. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Tens of thousands of jobs would be created in the new horse carriage business, and its subsequent servicing of them.
  92. 92. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Many people wouldn’t feel comfortable in driving their own vehicles so thousands of drivers would soon be employed.
  93. 93. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... A million± garages would have to be modified to accommodate horses.
  94. 94. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Instead of parking garages, these would be built in every community.
  95. 95. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Tens of thousands of carpenters, etc would be employed to build and maintain the newly required horse structures.
  96. 96. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Thousands of new horse supply stores would be newly created.
  97. 97. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits...Thousands of outlets would add horse food & supplies to what they carry.
  98. 98. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Instead of 7-11’s, thousands of new roadside stops would be created to service and feed the 2± million horses.
  99. 99. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Hundreds of regional supply centers would be setup.
  100. 100. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Tens of thousands of new horse vans would be needed. These could all be built in NC, creating thousands of jobs.
  101. 101. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... There would be thousands of new jobs in just the cleanup part.
  102. 102. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Oh - don’t forget that the buggy whip business would be resurrected.
  103. 103. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... A new big business would be horse mortuaries and cemeteries.
  104. 104. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... My list of NC jobs and economic benefits from mandating horse-drawnvehicles is just a sample — lobbyists can come up with other horse uses!
  105. 105. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... SB-H’s mandating 12.5% horse-drawn vehicles by 2021 would create at least 200,000 new NC jobs and result in many billions of dollars of NC economic development. This would be significantly more jobs and economic development than SB-3’s renewable energy promotion would result in!
  106. 106. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... An Asheville business uses a tractor trailer to daily move produce across the state.
  107. 107. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... How many horse carriages will it take to equal the reliability, performance and economics of one tractor trailer? X ?=
  108. 108. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Would it be 25? 1 -Would the cost of sending produce across the state with 25 horse carriages ever be equal to the cost of one truck (e.g. 25 horse vehicles = 50 drivers vs 1)? 2 - Would the reliability of sending produce across the state with 25 horse carriages ever be equal to the dependability of one truck? 3 - Would the performance of sending produce across the state with 25 horse carriages ever be equal to the quick performance of one truck?
  109. 109. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... NO! No matter what our good intentions are, no matter how much taxpayer subsidies are wasted, no matter how much spin the lobbyists put on it, horses will NEVER replace modern transportation!
  110. 110. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Once you thoroughly understand that horse drawn vehicles will never equal the reliability, performance and economics of one tractor trailer, you will then understand the electricity situation better.
  111. 111. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... Progress is about genuinely moving forward — not promoting 18th Century ideas.
  112. 112. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... How many wind turbines will it take to equal the reliability, performance and economics of one nuclear power plant?
  113. 113. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... No matter what our good intentions are, no matter how much taxpayer subsidies are wasted, no matter how much spin the lobbyists put on it: wind energy will NEVER replace coal or nuclear power!
  114. 114. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... The $64,000,000 Question Is: Is it wise to have public policy primarily driven by job claims? In transportation, the goal is to get from one place to another: quickly, comfortably, and economically. Reverting to horse power is contrary to ALL of those objectives, somandating horse power would be detrimental to NC citizens & businesses.
  115. 115. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... The $64,000,000 Question Is: Is it wise to have public policy primarily driven by job claims? In electrical power the goal is to have electricity that is: plentiful*, reliable, and economical. Reverting to wind energy is contrary to ALL of those objectives,so mandating wind energy is detrimental to NC citizens and businesses. *Plentiful = more power available, on demand
  116. 116. Some resulting NC jobs & economic benefits... The $64,000,000 Question Is: Is it wise to have public policy primarily driven by job claims? The answer is NO! Public policy should stay focused on meeting the fundamental objectives of the sector involved. In both cases, real jobs and genuine economic development will materialize when those objectives are met!
  117. 117. So, SB-H (compared to SB-3) would — 1 - reduce more of our fossil fuel usage, 2 - promote more energy diversity, 3 - have NC be more energy independent, 4 - would make NC a leader in horse power, 5 - create many more NC jobs, 6 - generate more NC economic development, etc., etc.
  118. 118. In almost EVERY regard, SB-H has more benefits than does SB-3.So why aren’t the environmental advocates aggressively promoting SB-H?
  119. 119. Because citizens and businesses have a better understanding of transportation, and they can easily see the downsides.This is not the case with electrical energy!
  120. 120. So, does an RPS make sense?A genuine scientific assessment of SB-3 or SB-H would show that there are many significant liabilities and few proven net benefits. In other words, a typical RPS is not cost-beneficial.
  121. 121. But What About the LaCapra Report?
  122. 122. Indeed, what about it?There are three questions here:1) are these people appropriate to give a scientific assessment of SB-3?2) is their report an objective assessment of SB-3?3) what is the value of their report? {The following are my personal opinions as a scientist, environmentalist and NC resident.}
  123. 123. 1-Are these people appropriate to give a scientific assessment of SB-3? Fact: LaCapra and their two associates have a substantial stake in the success of the renewable energy business. For example:
  124. 124. A simple question that should prove it: What would happen if they concluded renewables were ahigh-cost, low-benefit option, and that SB-3 was a bad idea?Results:1 - their NC employers would not be happy, and2 - they would never again get renewables consulting business.
  125. 125. Some five years later theyare still using this report as a marketing tool.
  126. 126. 1-Were these people appropriate to give a scientific assessment of SB-3? NO
  127. 127. BTW, there was free qualified assistance available.For example, the John Locke Foundation wrote an excellent report: “A Wind Power Primer”. (<<http://www.johnlocke.org/research/show/spotlights/195>>)
  128. 128. 2 - Is their report an objective assessment of SB-3? How would conflicted consultants deal with the fact that there is no legitimacy with the SB-3 promotion of renewable energies? — several ways —
  129. 129. 1 - They avoid dealing with REAL Science.In this 154 page report, the word “Science” appears zero times!
  130. 130. 2 - Some facts are fudged.For instance, there is actually no such thing as wind energy by itself, yet all of the comparisons made in this report assume that there is.
  131. 131. E.g., wind is shown here directly compared to conventional sources
  132. 132. 3 - Some comparisons are inappropriate.For instance, some comparisons are made vs doing nothing,where a more meaningful comparison is vs other alternatives.
  133. 133. This is presented as a MAJOR selling point for SB-3: that CO2 would be saved. The facts are that —1) no scientific proof was provided for the claims made here,2) this is another case where they ignore the wind/gas reality, and3) nuclear energy would save more than wind/gas does.
  134. 134. 4 - The majority of assumptions are favorably biased. For instance, wind capacity factor information came fromdevelopers and other proponents, rather than real-world data. Same thing with levelized costs, projected fuel costs, etc.
  135. 135. Here are LaCapra’s assumed Capacity Factors which are 50%± more than real world results.
  136. 136. Here are LaCapra’s assumed levelized costs which are 50%±of EIA’s estimates!
  137. 137. Here are their assumed fuel costsActual fuel costs are quite a bit lowerthan their minimum projection.
  138. 138. More real world evidence from utility experts,that say LaCapra’s economic conclusions are wrong:
  139. 139. President & COO of Duke’s US Electric business, says: “It doesn’t matter how clean it is, if it’s not affordable or reliable.”
  140. 140. Other utilities are now starting to speak out.Here is one statewide ad run by Idaho Power: “Integrating the variable capacity of wind energy undermines the time- tested, science driven technology plan required of all utilities. And that just isn’t right.”
  141. 141. Other utilities are now starting to speak out.Here is another statewide ad run by Idaho Power: “In the simplest of terms, special interest groups and wind developers are asking you to pay more for a less reliable product. And that just isn’t right.”
  142. 142. An even more disturbing assessment from a utility executive.When National Grid’s CEO was challenged about integrating wind energy, he said:“Families would have to get used to only using power when it was available, rather than constantly.”
  143. 143. As time goes on, more leaders are speaking out — “Industrial wind projects don’t work. They produce a trickle of electricity at a vast cost to the consumer. They desecrate the landscape and make people’s lives a misery. And they don’t even cut carbon emissions. They are literally a waste of space…” Struan Stevenson: Chairman of the European Parliament’s (11/11/11) Climate Change, Biodiversity & Sustainable Development Intergroup.
  144. 144. Wind Marketers Frequently Promote NC’s “Wind Resources”LaCapra: “North Carolina has a diverse mix of untapped renewable energyresources that can be developed to meet an RPS.” Etc. 1 - Is this true regarding wind energy? 2 - Even if it is, Is it relevant?
  145. 145. Here is what the US Department of Energy says:"Areas with annual average wind speeds around 6.5 m/s andgreater at 80-m height are generally considered to have suitablewind resource for wind development." They then provide an 80-mheight map for all of North Carolina (next slide). This map showedthat the average wind speeds for the first two proposed wind projectsare significantly below the federal governments "suitable windresource" standard.[For some reason, with the Desert Wind application this was notbrought up by the Public Staff (or anyone else) before the UtilityCommission, and the Commission itself failed to mention this detail.] <<http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/wind_resource_maps.asp?stateab=nc>>
  146. 146. This same gov’t report shows that 99.87% (!) of NC acreage is unsuitable for wind development (one of the highest US percentages). Compare this to Desert Wind Project Kansas (10.5%), Pantego Project Nebraska (8.4%), Texas (44.5%)… This is yet anotherMinimum Wind Speeds Needed independent fact that brings into question the merits of SB-3.
  147. 147. The question is not “Can we do something?” in the energy area, but rather:“Does it make technical, economic and environmental sense?” When analyzed from the scientific perspective Offshore Wind Simply Does Not Make Sense.
  148. 148. “Polling data showed that after reading arguments for and against wind, wind lost support...concerns about wind energy’s cost and its effect on property values crowded out climate change” among those surveyed. “The things people are educated about are a real deficit for us.” After briefings on the pros and cons of wind “enthusiasm decreased for wind.” — Justin Rolfe-Redding, a doctoral student from the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University at American Council on Renewable Energy webinar: 3/23/11<<http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/279802/america-s-worst-wind-energy-project-robert-bryce>>
  149. 149. Businesses Against Offshore Wind
  150. 150. Another $64,000,000 Question Is: Is it wise to have public policy primarily driven by resource availability? In electrical power the goal is to have electricity that is: plentiful*, reliable, and economical.Reverting to offshore wind energy is contrary to ALL of those objectives,so mandating wind energy is detrimental to NC citizens and businesses. *Plentiful = more power available, on demand
  151. 151. 5 - They use a software program to draw conclusions. Substituting software for real research is ok: a) IF it adequately addresses all pro & con issues, and b) IF all of its limitations are clearly identified, and c) IF the authors of the report make compensations for those.None of these appear to be true with IMPLAN and the LaCapra report.
  152. 152. Here is important observations about IMPLAN by a UNC expert:
  153. 153. 2 - Is the LaCapra report an objective assessment of SB-3? NO
  154. 154. This independent critique of SB-3 is worth reading as it is more objectiveabout economic matters.
  155. 155. 3 - What are the best ways going forward?a - Scrap Senate Bill-3 (the 12.5%/2021 part, as it makes less sense than does a horse mandate)b - Significantly modify Senate Bill-3 (a much less desirable option) (to provide more assurances that the results will be cost-beneficial) Pass a proper statewide industrial wind energy permitting process. Utility Commission’s Public Staff is conflicted, which needs fixing.c - Change the Legislative Process (A lot of time, effort, and money has been wasted going down this dead-end path. This can be a learning experience for us. Solution: technical policies should be based on real science.)
  156. 156. To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often. — Winston Churchill
  157. 157. The Process Is The Problem!See <<http://www.northnet.org/brvmug/WindPower/Its_The_Process.pdf>> for a suggested solution.
  158. 158. — NC is Facing Another Choice — We can be a National Leader in:— buggy whip manufacturing and blacksmith jobs OR— the first state to retract their RPS— the first state to have all their technical policies scientifically vetted— the first state to aggressively support state-of-the art energy solutions (like geothermal energy or Small Modular Reactors)
  159. 159. This was the point where we lost our way.We can learn from this by fixing the process.
  160. 160. That was the end of the NC presentation For more information about electricity and the environment, see EnergyPresentation.Info Two other related (brief) energy presentations are: A Short Story <<http://www.slideshare.net/JohnDroz/short-story-5337587>> Remember <<http://www.slideshare.net/JohnDroz/remember-3236721>>For any questions please email john droz, jr: “aaprjohn@northnet.org”
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