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Electrical Energy: Sound Scientific Solutions
 

Electrical Energy: Sound Scientific Solutions

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Industrial wind power is examined from a different perspective: how it fits into our 125± year historical pattern for selecting sources for electrical power. This has considerable pertinence since ...

Industrial wind power is examined from a different perspective: how it fits into our 125± year historical pattern for selecting sources for electrical power. This has considerable pertinence since the power source requirements developed during this long period have not only resulted in the most successful electrical grid system in the world, but have also immeasurably contributed to the economic success of the US. From my perspective as a physicist and long time environmental activist, it is apparent that we depart from this proven path at our extreme peril

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110 of 17 previous next Post a comment

  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
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  • Well done.
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  • Political Wind--Turbines Suck
    http://beyondprophecy.blogspot.ca/2013/07/political-wind-turbines-suck.html
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  • How can wind power be the solution to energy problems when the wind behaves like a yo-yo and is extremely sporadic and unreliable? Wind Energy cannot close even ONE back-up fossil fuel or nuclear power station.
    One small area of Mid Wales......less than 1000 square miles of some of the finest, unspoilt rolling green hill scenery in the world......is being threatened with anywhere between 400 and 800 wind turbines, each one between 400 ft and 450 ft in height !!It is crazy !! Even 800 wind turbines 400 ft high will only generate 25 per cent of their 2 megawatt installed capacity , or 0.5MW each. That gives a total of 800 x 0.5MW , or 400MW. But that is not a replacement,because the back-up power station must KEEP RUNNING ! Do you realise what 800 x 400 feet wind turbines looks like?? Do you know how many SQUARE MILES they would cover?......AND...FOR WHAT ?????
    For NOTHING !! They DUPLICATE electricity from fossil fuels.How can they replace it when the fossil fuel power stations keep running due to the sporadic ,unpredictable ,inadequate wind???
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  • Recycling? You ought to apply the scientific method to that. You would likely find that the only thing it makes sense to recycle is metals. Anybody hear of thieves stealing bundled newspapers? Or do they prefer aluminum cans?
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  • One big error I see is that you assume other mandates (more efficient motors) will fix our problems. No. Businesses will 'kill' to increase profits. Let them decide where to spend their money. Suppose the money spent on efficient motors could be devoted to some better use?

    Say you mandate 99% efficient motors. The 99% motors cost 1.2X a 90% motor. If the motor is only needed a few hours a year (sump pump say) it makes no economic sense to mandate the 99% motor for all applications. Besides politicians have no sense about any of this. (this is an example - the figures are for illustration only).

    Best leave it to the engineers. It is their job. BTW I wouldn't even allow most physicists to make the choice. Trade offs are not their regular day job.

    Have you heard of Polywell Fusion?
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Electrical Energy: Sound Scientific Solutions Electrical Energy: Sound Scientific Solutions Presentation Transcript

  • Our Energy Policy: From Science, or Lobbyists? John Droz, jr. Physicist & Environmental Advocate - 9/1/13 - © john droz, jr.
  • Make SURE to View This Presentation in the FULL SCREEN Mode! Click the “FULL” icon in the lower right hand corner.
  • Do NOT click on the Triangle below to run this presentation! Instead, use your keyboard arrow keys to navigate. This will allow you to proceed at your own pace.
  • Our Energy Policies — from Lobbyists or Science The purpose of this material is to educate citizens about various key aspects of the US electricity grid, and the electrical power source choices we have. This is a complicated matter, so I have tried to strike a balance between being too technical and too simplified. Note also that the phrase “wind energy” is more technically accurate than the more commonly used “wind power”. The underlying message is that our energy decisions should be made on the basis of sound SCIENCE — not on what lobbyists say. Hopefully you have already been to my website: “WindPowerFacts.Info”. If you have looked over what’s there you’ll see that my several articles about our energy choices have two objectives. The first (as in this presentation) is to fill a niche not addressed elsewhere. The second purpose of my communications is to target the average citizen as my audience. I believe that the future of this issue lies in whether or not citizens are properly educated about basic energy matters. After getting more up-to-speed, they need to do some Critical Thinking about this matter. Unfortunately, Critical Thinking has become somewhat of a lost art — and that has led to serious consequences to our society as a whole. My expectation is that after citizens get more informed — and do some Critical Thinking — that they will be in a much better position to express their more informed wishes to their local, state and federal representatives. After I began giving free talks to community groups (e.g. in NY, ME, MA, PA, VA, WV, MD, NC), I started getting requests to put on presentations elsewhere. To save other groups the cost of my coming to other parts of the world, I decided to put the presentation online. One downside of this alternative is that in the live presentation there is commentary that accompanies each slide, and this is not included here. Since I don’t have the space to include all of those, I identified the slides where the remarks were most important, and added them after those slides. [These “elaborated on” slides are identified with an asterisk in the upper right hand corner. On a few other slides I added short comments between the {...} brackets directly on the slides.] Another liability of this internet version is that it skips all the interesting slide transitions, doesn’t play the embedded movie, is longer, etc. Seeing it live is still the best! Although I would rather be there to help you out in person, I can only be in one place at a time anyway. In any case after you go through this, I will be glad to personally respond to any emails you send me: “aaprjohn@northnet.org”. Please see my brief “resume,” the copyright notice, disclaimer, and contact information on the last slide. References and credits are on the three slides prior to the end. [Note that I will indicate updates on the material by a new date on the first slide.] If you like what you see, please pass it on to other open-minded people, plus your federal, state and local representatives. — ENJOY! john droz, jr. © john droz, jr.
  • “HE WHO DARES NOT OFFEND CANNOT BE HONEST.” — Thomas Paine
  • © john droz, jr. This isn’t m e... This is m e... {Please remember that I’m just a backwoods scientist — not a professional communicator.}
  • & KISS The observer’s question: “are these objects the same?” PERSPECTIVE © john droz, jr. {I’ve tried to incorporate two of my basic beliefs here: the first is Perspective. As a senior now looking back I’ve found that the single most successful strategy in solving almost ANY problem, is to change how you look at it. So I am strongly encouraging you to look at Wind Energy differently from what you’ve mostly seen in the media. I’ve used analogies throughout to help with this change in Perspective... The KISS philosophy is the second, and is about Keeping It Simple. I’ve tried to do that here too.}
  • Galileo: “I do not feel obliged to believe, that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason and intellect, has intended us to forgo their use.” ~1600 © john droz, jr. {Galileo is one of several historical people I really admire. One reason is that he stood up for the Truth when essentially everyone else in the world, was wrong. Think about that. How would you like to take a very public position that was contrary to what everyone else in the world believed? His famous saying here is a key theme in this presentation.}
  • What Is Critical Thinking? A thorough, open-minded, logical effort to examine a claim, in the light of applicable evidence. One of the key ingredients of true science — and critical thinking — is SKEPTICISM © john droz, jr.
  • vs GroupThink © john droz, jr. {When it comes to electrical energy solutions, most environmental groups fall into this category.}
  • “WHEN MEN GIVE UP THE PRIVILEGE OF THINKING, THE LAST SHADOW OF LIBERTY LEAVES THE HORIZON.” — Thomas Paine
  • — Some Environmental Organizations I Belong to — The Sierra Club Adirondack Council © john droz, jr.
  • My Three Hats Here: #1 - Physicist #2 - Economist #3 - Environmentalist © john droz, jr.
  • Water is another resource that we usually take for granted. This is the city of Utica’s (NY) main reservoir, half empty. This view is looking across the lake (about one mile). © john droz, jr.
  • This is the city of Utica’s main reservoir in 2007. (This view is from about the same spot shown in the prior photo.) {This is a real world, local example of what happens when we neglect our environment. Wind energy is such an abandonment.} © john droz, jr.
  • A Few Turbines in Upstate NY © john droz, jr. {The energy example we are going to review here is Industrial Wind Energy. When I first heard about wind energy, I was a supporter. Quite frankly, I never liked the looks of turbines, but felt that we would have to live with the unsightliness as a trade-off for the good I initially assumed they were doing. Then I did some research, and Critical Thinking. My conclusion now (as a scientist, economist, and environmentalist) is that Industrial Wind Energy is not based on scientific proof.}
  • There are no Wind Energy projects being proposed for my community, so Wind Energy is NOT a NIMBY* issue for me. © john droz, jr. Let’s get one thing out of the way right off... *NIMBY = Not In My Backyard
  • By this I mean that: 1) wind energy is not a technically sound solution to provide us power, or to meaningfully reduce global warming, and Wind Energy Fails to Deliver the Goods 2) wind energy is not an economically viable source of power on its own, and 3) wind energy is not environmentally responsible. © john droz, jr. The bottom line is that {These three basic criteria haven’t been selected to make wind energy look bad, but are what should be used to evaluate the legitimacy of ANY proposed new alternative source of energy.}
  • In the case of Wind Energy, this has never been done. © john droz, jr. Science is a PROCESS that Works Like This: When a new idea (hypothesis) is proposed as a potential solution to a problem, it is up to the advocates to provide the scientific evidence that verifies its efficacy. (It’s not our obligation to disprove it.)
  • What Wind Energy Is Really All About © john droz, jr.
  • Most Communities Have a Sign Ordinance Why? Because commercialization is recognized as an undermining of the nature of the community. Its Purpose: to minimize visual pollution © john droz, jr. *
  • © john droz, jr. *
  • * An Explanation of the Prior Two “Billboard” Slides (some of the words given at the live presentation) Let’s say a big foreign company comes to your community and says: “We have a great new business opportunity! We want to lease some local land for a new type of attractive billboard. It’s called a ‘mega-board.’ They’re about 450 feet high, and we’d like to put up a hundred or so in this area.” “We’ll pay some local landowners to rent their land, and will also arrange it so that your town will make good money off these through tax and other contributions.” Now, would your community rush out to change their sign ordinance to get this money? Even though there’d be profits made by people leasing land to these advertisers, and money going to the town, I’d like to believe that the majority of people would be against such blatant commercialization of their community. There’s no difference with wind energy. © john droz, jr.
  • Our Quality of Life Should Not Be For Sale © john droz, jr. (My photo is of the St. Lawrence River) Yes, I confess that I DO have a bias here! One of the things I believe is that...
  • The Question I Asked — (the author of a pro-wind article that appeared in Mother Earth News) “What independent, scientific proof do you have that wind energy does what it’s supposed to do?” © john droz, jr.
  • The Answer I Got: “I have no independent, scientific proof — and none is needed.” (!) © john droz, jr.
  • * An Explanation of the Following “Ann Rice” Slide (some of the words given at the live presentation) Before I move on I’ve really got to touch on Psychology for a minute, because the energy issue — and its proposed solutions — seem to be a magnet for some interesting psychological characters. (Witness the incomprehensible assertion on the prior slide — from a reportedly competent individual at that.) In my 25+ years as an environmental activist, I’ve communicated with literally tens of thousands of people about a variety of environmental issues. It always seemed to me that the facts would win the day — but that’s the scientist in me talking. I find it fascinating to see people’s reaction when they’re presented with facts that run contrary to their beliefs. When I saw this Ann Rice quote, I immediately said “bingo!” — she really phrases it in a very good way. John Kenneth Galbraith said essentially the same thing with slightly different words: “The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful job of thinking.” © john droz, jr.
  • π When it comes to discussing industrial Wind Energy with most environmentalists, politicians, and the media, this says it all: “Very few really seek knowledge in this world. “On the contrary, they try to justify their entrenched, unscientific opinions, by selectively wringing from the unknown, answers to console themselves. “To really ask for the Truth is to open the door to the whirlwind — which may annihilate the questioner.” — Ann Rice © john droz, jr. *
  • This has a well-known psychological explanation... Cognitive Dissonance is the tendency to resist information that we don't want to think about, because if we did it would conflict with an illusion we have bought into — and perhaps require us to act in ways that are out of our comfort zone. — Leon Festinger © john droz, jr.
  • * An Explanation of the Prior “Cognitive Dissonance” Slide (some of the words given at the live presentation) In laymen’s terms, Cognitive Dissonance says that there appears to be a genetic predisposition that after we buy into something — i.e. get into a mindset — that it becomes extremely difficult for most people to change their position. Interestingly, this was first officially identified in a study of UFOs. In 1956 a woman claimed that she had received a message from aliens that within the year the planet would be destroyed. Since she was very convincing, she soon had a group of followers who had bought into her story — and they sold everything they owned... But then her prediction didn’t come about. In an attempt to rationalize away their obvious mistake — yet not wanting to admit that they were wrong — most members of the cult then adopted a new prophecy: that the aliens had instead spared the planet for their sake. This is Cognitive Dissonance. We look back on those people and wonder how they could be so gullible — yet here we are willing to make enormous financial and personal freedom sacrifices, based on predictions of the planet’s destruction. We’re too smart to buy the aliens threat again, so this time the boogeyman is Global Warming. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it comes to mind. But isn’t Global Warming a scientific threat? Uh, not really. We need to carefully distinguish between reports by scientists, and scientific reports. Consider the following four slides... © john droz, jr.
  • Is every priest a holy person? Is every lawyer a law-abiding citizen? Is every scientist a promoter of science? © john droz, jr.
  • NO! © john droz, jr.
  • Just because a scientist makes an assertion, does not make that claim scientific. There are thousands of scientists who are promoting personal or political agendas! What makes a claim “scientific” is that it has been subjected to the Scientific Method. © john droz, jr.
  • The Scientific Method consists of a — 1) comprehensive, and 2) independent (i.e. objective), and 3) transparent, and 4) empirically based assessment of claims made by proponents. Anything less is NOT real science. © john droz, jr.
  • “THESE ARE THE TIMES THAT TRY MEN’S SOULS.” — Thomas Paine
  • Edison Electric Company - 1882 {Let’s go back into history to see how we ended up with the electric grid system we have today... The first practical use of electricity, in the late 1800s, is generally attributed to Thomas Edison (a founder of General Electric). Of course there were actually dozens of other people who contributed to making commercial electricity a reality. And there were a LOT of formidable hurdles to overcome.} © john droz, jr.
  • The Six Principle Requirements for Commercial Electricity Generating Sources are that: 1 - they provide large amounts of electricity; 2 - they provide reliable and predictable electricity; 3 - they provide dispatchable* electricity; 4 - they service one or more grid demand elements**; 5 - their facility is compact***; 6 - they provide economical electricity. * Dispatchable = can generate higher or lower amounts of power on-demand. ** Grid Demand Elements = Base Load, Load Following, and Peak Load. *** Compact is the ability to site an electrical facility on a relatively small and well-defined footprint, preferably near high demand, e.g. cities. © john droz, jr.
  • It’s All About Creating Capacity, Particularly “Capacity Value” Capacity Value: “The ability to rapidly convert a set amount of energy at specified, needed times.” [E.g. with a nuclear facility, a grid operator has near 100% confidence that full power will be available from that facility at times of greatest demand.] © john droz, jr. {Note: Capacity VALUE is not the same as Capacity FACTOR. See reference and next page for more explanation.}
  • * An Explanation of the Prior “Capacity Value” Slide Capacity Value is really a very simple idea. You don't drive your car all the time, with the result that its utilization [Capacity Factor] is probably 10-20%. However, when you do wish to drive your vehicle, it works 99.9% of the time, getting you from one place to another and on your own schedule. Thus 99.9% is its Capacity Value (also known as Effective Capacity). Ditto with your chain saw, or television, or most any modern appliance we all take for granted: they work when we want it to work. Appliances that are not dependable are quickly discarded. In the last hundred years or so we in developed countries have come to rely on machines with this standard. In fact, this “performance on demand” is the basis of our modernity. Our conventional energy sources have very high Capacity Values, as system operators can depend (e.g. have 99% confidence) on their power being available at any time, 24/7/365. Since it is impossible to have such confidence in it, wind energy has a very low Capacity Value. [Please also see slides 53-55 for another example of Capacity Value.] © john droz, jr.
  • Fuel Sources for US Electricity Generation in 2010 EIA Report (2011) The next time you hear an ad about how wind energy will help with our dependence on oil, remember that less than 1% of our electricity comes from oil.
  • Each of the current conventional sources meet ALL of the prior six essential criteria As a result, Today — and a Hundred Years from now — these conventional sources can provide ALL of the electrical needs of our society, while continuing to meet all six criteria. Note: We Have ALWAYS Been Energy Independent Here! © john droz, jr.
  • SO WHAT’S THE PROBLEM? © john droz, jr.
  • A NEW element has been added: environmental impact (especially emissions, like CO2) © john droz, jr.
  • Climate Change = significant, long-term changes in average weather. Global Warming = a hypothesis that offers an explanation for Climate Change: that man-made emissions (CO2) are the primary cause. Climate Change ≠ Global Warming © john droz, jr.
  • Is Being “Safe” the Wisest Strategy? — Not Necessarily! * © john droz, jr.
  • * An Explanation of the Prior “Being Safe” Slide (some of the words given at the live presentation) What about the argument that “we should always err on the side of being cautious”? Well, like many things in this complex area, there’s a lot more to it than what appears on the surface. If “being safe” is our over-riding criterion, let’s look at another example — one that is literally a life and death matter — to explain what I mean. It’s a fact that the higher the highway speed limit is, the more fatalities and injuries there are. In the US there are some 40,000 people killed each year in motor vehicle accidents. So, if our policy is first and foremost to be safe, then all highways should have a speed limit of no more than 30 MPH: which would likely save 20,000± lives annually. As good as that seems, stop and consider the implications of that change for a minute... The point is that being cautious sounds fine, but we should be aware that there are often enormous consequences to such a strategy — just like there are with wind energy. And, by the way, if we are really concerned about being safe, then that’s all the more reason we should want independent, scientific proof that our money, efforts & sacrifices are producing cost-effective, consequential benefits. No such proof exists for industrial wind energy. © john droz, jr.
  • Concerns About This New Requirement: 1 - Having the government step into the utility business and mandate that utilities change the principles that have been the foundation of our electrical grid system since the 1800s. 2 - Transforming a system that has worked successfully for some 125 years, based on a scientifically unresolved hypothesis. 3 - The new Environmental Impact standard has taken priority over all the other six time-tested ones. 4 - This new Environmental Impact standard has, in reality, become the ONLY benchmark of importance. — AND — © john droz, jr.
  • 5 - Alternative sources of commercial electricity that just claim to be Environmentally Beneficial don’t even have to prove that they actually are! This is what happens when energy policies are lobbyist driven instead of being Science-based. © john droz, jr.
  • “A LONG HABIT OF NOT THINKING A THING WRONG, GIVES IT A SUPERFICIAL APPEARANCE OF BEING RIGHT.” — Thomas Paine
  • © john droz, jr. How does Industrial Wind Energy stack up against the power generation Six Historical Criteria, and how Environmentally Beneficial is it?
  • #1 - Does wind energy provide large amounts of electricity ? Yes, it could. However, its effectiveness from most perspectives is inferior. For instance, because of the wide fluctuations of wind, it only produces, on average, about 30% of its rated maximum power. This issue is compounded by the fact that there is no way to economically store what is produced for later use. Another example of its dilutedness is that it takes over one thousand times the amount of land for wind energy to produce a roughly equivalent amount of power as does a nuclear facility. © john droz, jr.
  • 100 acres of this = 100,000+ acres of this © john droz, jr.
  • 2 - Does wind energy provide reliable & predictable electricity ? NO. Despite the wind industry’s absolute best efforts it is not reliable or predictable compared to the standards set by our conventional electrical sources. A wind turbine’s output varies continuously between zero and 100% of its rated capacity, extremely sensitive to small changes in wind speed — and it only operates in a limited range of wind speed. Additionally, wind energy is often not available when power is needed most. © john droz, jr.
  • Sample Data from German utility Eon Netz, which manages the largest collection of wind turbines in the world... Note Predictability and Variability during six hours on a recent representative day Note weekly Variability throughout the year © john droz, jr.
  • Sample Data from Ontario Power Authority Observe wide variability across this one month time period. Note: Average Output was only 13.5% of Rated Capacity. © john droz, jr.
  • Sample Demand vs Wind Energy Data (BPA) Note how wind output is not in sync with demand. © john droz, jr. [Note extended periods of zero wind output]
  • A Sample Windmobile [Note that it requires the backup of a conventional power source.] © john droz, jr.
  • * An Explanation of the Prior “Windmobile” Slide I was asked whether the windmobile was serious. Yes — if you do some Critical Thinking about it there is some worthwhile comparative instruction value to this analogy.  For instance, on the one hand there would be a few (relatively rare) cases where the car’s gas engine would not have to be turned on at all, and one would save fossil fuel. HOWEVER — a) there is an extra $10,000 cost for the wind power addition to the vehicle; b) the normal gas mileage for that vehicle is decreased by 20% due to the mounted blades. This amounts to extra cost AND an increase in emissions when the gas engine is used; c) the additional parts and connections of the wind machine would increase the maintenance cost to the user; d) the resale value of this vehicle would be less than the same conventional vehicle, so there would be still another hidden cost to the user; e) the user would have to receive special training on how to operate this type of vehicle.  This amounts to lost time, and lost productivity. What is the cost of their time to do that? — continued on next page — © john droz, jr.
  • * An Explanation of the Prior “Windmobile” Slide — Part 2 f) the attempts by the user to utilize the wind aspect (continuously checking the weather forecast for instance) would amount to lost time, and lost productivity. What is the cost of their time to do that? g) despite this there would be other negative consequences, like more accidents due to loss of power or control. More cost and lost time again. h) most of the time the car would operate on a combination of some wind and some gas. But the wind would continually be changing so the gas engine would have to be continually accelerated, and then the vehicle braked, etc. This would result in speed overagages (tickets, accidents), plus inefficiency on the part of the gas engine (more fossil fuel used), plus premature wearout of some parts (e.g. brakes, transmission, engine). Etc., etc. The bottom line is that such a vehicle would be an absurd "solution" to partially reduce CO2 emissions, as the REAL COSTS would be very high and the CO2 savings very low. Such it is with industrial wind energy. [The wind availability for such a vehicle also gives another good idea about the concept of Capacity Value: very low.] © john droz, jr.
  • 3 - Does wind energy provide dispatchable electricity ? NO. Due to its unpredictability, wind can not be counted on to provide power on-demand — in other words, on a human-defined schedule of need. © john droz, jr.
  • Big Brother Strikes Again Logic would say that this lack of human control is yet another reason to discard this inferior electrical supply source — but no! We now have the specter of a new “remedy” to the problem of wind's uncontrollability: Since we can't control the wind, let's control demand (so that it conforms to wind's whims). This is a key part of what’s behind the “solution” called the Smart Grid. © john droz, jr.
  • Think Not? Then look closely at this recent article about an interview with the head person of a large, multi-national utility company. The British newspaper concludes that when his statement is decoded, he is actually saying that consumers need to change their habits to conform to the unpredictability of wind energy. In the past, energy sources were chosen to conform to the needs of users. This is a radical change. © john droz, jr.
  • 4 - Does wind energy dependably provide one or more of the grid demand elements ? NO. 1 - All electricity produced must be used immediately, as currently there is no way to economically store electricity (and nothing is on the horizon either), 2 - The primary job of Grid operators is to provide a SUPPLY that exactly meets DEMAND on a second by second basis, 3 - The three types of DEMAND are: a) Base Load (what is needed 24/7) b) Load Following (normal usage daily changes) c) Peak Load (unexpected surges) (The next five slides include a basic pictorial representation of these demands.) © john droz, jr.
  • What is “Base Load” Demand? © john droz, jr. Base Load: what is needed 24/7 (about 50% of the total) [This is a predictable underlying demand that is quite consistent throughout the year.] 0 1000 2000 3000 Monday Tuesday Wednesday MWofElectricity Base Load Can Wind Energy Supply “Base Load” Power? NO.
  • More on “Base Load” Demand... The principle Base Load sources of electrical power are Nuclear and Coal facilities. Since Wind Energy can not provide Base Load power it will not replace any Coal Base Load facilities.  Coal facilities emit 85%± of the electrical sector’s CO2.  [Additional Nuclear (or Geothermal) facilities will provide Base Load, so they can replace high emitting Coal facilities.] Just remember: 85%± of the electrical CO2 emissions will hardly be touched by wind energy! © john droz, jr.
  • What is “Load Following” Demand? 0 1000 2000 3000 Monday Tuesday Wednesday MWofElectricity © john droz, jr. Load Following: normal usage daily changes [These are fairly predictable 24 hour cyclic changes, with higher demand before & after work.] Can Wind Energy Supply “Load Following” Power? NO. Base Load Load Following
  • What is “Peak Load” Demand? 0 1000 2000 3000 Monday Tuesday Wednesday MWofElectricity © john droz, jr. Peak Load: unusual surges [These may be due to a heat wave where a lot of air conditioners are used at 5 PM.] Base Load Load Following Peak Load Can Wind Energy Supply “Peak Load” Power? NO.
  • More on “Load Following” & “Peak Load” Demands... The principle Load Following & Peak Load sources of electrical power are Hydro, Gas, and select small Coal facilities. Although Wind Energy can’t really provide either of these types of power it is used to reduce the need for Hydro, Gas and small Coal units.  Gas facilities emit only 15%± of the electrical sector’s CO2.  Just remember: when wind replaces Hydro, there are zero CO2 savings; when wind replaces Gas or small Coal, there are miniscule CO2 savings. [The latter is due to “thermal inefficiencies,” which means that the Gas or small Coal units are operating inefficiently ramping up and down, just like your car does in stop-and-go traffic.] © john droz, jr.
  • A Real Life Demand Curve © john droz, jr. The top (red) line shows varying demand, the bottom shows wind energy available [Note how wind energy does not provide ANY of the grid demand elements!]
  • What if Many Wind Projects (Over a Wide Area) Are Connected Together? Will this then result is a reliable, dispatchable Base Load, Load Following, or Peak Load source of electrical energy? “Yes it will” is the claim of promoters (based on favorable computer projections). But what does real world experience show?
  • This is the most geographically dispersed collection of wind projects on a single grid, in the world. South East Australia has 18 wind projects connected together, spanning over a 1000 miles. © john droz, jr.
  • Cathedral Rock One of the 18 wind projects in the South East Australia grid. © john droz, jr.
  • The Results Despite enormous diversity, wind energy is still wildly variable ! "!!! #!!!! #"!!! $!!!! $"!!! %!!!! %"!!! !& #!& $!& %!& '!& "!& (!& )!& *!& +!& #!!& # $ % ' " ( ) * + #! ## #$ #% #' #" #( #) #* #+ $! $# $$ $% $' $" $( $) $* $+ %! %# !"#$%&'()*&+"$*&,-./ 0$1$2)#3&4$2#"(&,5/ .)6*&4$(7&0$1$2)#3&4$2#"(&89&'()*&+"$* -$3&:;<;&= >"?#@&A$9#&B?9#($%)$ ,-./ 0123./ TotalGridLoad(MW) WindCapacityFactor(%) © john droz, jr.
  • * Some Comments about the “Interconnecting Multiple Projects” idea The simplistic theory behind this geographically dispersed idea is: “the wind is always blowing someplace — so if wind projects are sufficiently spread out, they will always be producing reliable predictable power, equivalent to our conventional sources.” This is typical of the unscientific ideas promulgated by promoters. Despite having real world data available, they eschew that in favor of a computer projection. Their “proof” is a computer model they concoct — which is loaded with carefully selected assumptions to support their pre- determined agenda. This is not science, which is based on independent, empirical evidence. I am showing real data from actual sources — in this case the most geographically dispersed collection of wind projects on a single grid, in the world. These results show a huge disparity between such fabricated computer “models” and real world reality. Clearly the graph demonstrates that even this enormously spread out collection of wind projects is NOT a reliable or dispatchable source of energy, and it is NOT in any way a source of Base Load, Load Following, or Peak Load power. [Also note that there are different scales on the prior slide for the red and blue lines.] © john droz, jr.
  • 5 - Is wind energy compact ? NO. To even approximate the nameplate power of a conventional facility, like nuclear, takes something like a thousand times the amount of area. “Connecting” multiple wind projects spread over vast areas is a Tinkertoy “solution” which also completely undermines the objective to be a concentrated power source. Another “feature” of wind energy is that most of the windiest sites (and available land) are a LONG way from where the electricity is needed. This will result in thousands of miles of huge unsightly transmission towers and cables, at an enormous expense to citizens — much of it completely unnecessary. © john droz, jr.
  • * More Comments about the “Interconnecting Multiple Projects” idea This is another version of "just do something, no matter how foolish or inefficient or expensive" to enable renewables like wind energy. The whole concept of gaining some small degree of reliability by having massive redundancy is absurd. This should be compared to buying ten unreliable cars so that the odds are improved that one will work on any given day. The intelligent option, of course, is to buy just one reliable vehicle. The same goes for the Grid changes that are carefully being marketed as “Smart”. Redundancy and new transmission add enormous costs — and are directly attributable to wind energy. As such these expenditures should be added to the real cost of wind energy. The lobbyists don’t want these costs to be connected to their pet projects, so they are busily trying to convince politicians that we needed to spend this money anyway. Most of it is a waste. Remember the warning given a few slides ago: another hidden agenda in the “Smart” grid idea is to force a change as to how users (you) utilize electricity. Beware! None of these proposals are truly about benefitting citizens or our society, but are rather to increase the profits of multi-national corporations. That is what lobbyists are paid to do. © john droz, jr.
  • © john droz, jr.
  • Some Consequences of the Thousands of Miles of New Transmission Lines Required by Wind Energy: 1 - Significant Construction Cost (materials, land, etc.)* 2 - Major Environmental Impact (visually, herbicides, etc.) 3 - Considerable Loss of Efficiency (10%± for every 60 miles) 4 - Potentially Adverse Health Effects (e.g. with EMFs) 5 - Involuntary property loss (eminent domain) *Note that due to some technical factors, the cost of transmitting wind energy is 2 to 3 times the cost for transmitting conventional power. In Eastern states the cost has been from $2 million to $10 million per mile. Note also that the “Smart Grid” is NOT the same thing as additional transmission lines. See reference for a more accurate story behind the “Smart Grid.” © john droz, jr.
  • 6 - Does wind energy provide economical electricity ? NO, not compared to conventional sources. We will look at the economics from three (3) perspectives — a) Total Costs (Capital + Operation/Maintenance + Fuel) b) Taxpayer funded incentives c) Ratepayer costs Note that in addition to these there are still more wind energy necessitated expenses (like the cost of a backup power source, the extra transmission lines needed, etc.). © john droz, jr.
  • Financial Comparison #1 Total Costs (Capital + Operation + Fuel) © john droz, jr.
  • Power Sources Total Costs Nuclear Geothermal Gas w CCS Coal w CSS Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Capital Operation Fuel Transmission EIA’s 2009 Estimated Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources, 2016 {Wind costs do NOT take into account any of the extra wind costs imposed on the system, ratepayers or taxpayers, like: for augmenting generation, for extra transmission lines needed, for other ancillary grid requirements, for decommissioning, etc.} © john droz, jr.
  • Financial Comparison #2 Taxpayer Costs © john droz, jr.
  • $0.44 $1.59 $0.25 $0.67 $23.37 Coal Nuclear Nat Gas Hydro Wind Some Annual Federal Subsidies of Electrical Energy Sources: per MWH 2007 US Energy Information Administration Subsidy Report: April 2008 $23.37
  • $0.64 $2.78 $0.63 $0.84 $52.43 Coal Nuclear Nat Gas Hydro Wind Some Annual Federal Subsidies of Electrical Energy Sources: per MWH 2010 US Energy Information Administration Subsidy Report: July 2011 [Direct + Tax + R&D +Electricity Support] $52.43 How has this changed three years later?
  • $1,189 M $2,234 M $654 M $215 M $4,981 M Coal Nuclear Nat Gas Hydro Wind Some Annual Federal Subsidies of Electrical Energy Sources: Totals 2010 US Energy Information Administration Subsidy Report: July 2011 [Direct + Tax + R&D +Electricity Support] $4,981 M Note that the total 2010 subsidies for wind energy exceed the totals for all the other conventional sources COMBINED! How about looking at it from a Totals perspective...
  • In ADDITION to the generous Federal subsidies, many states offer financial incentives for wind energy, like: 1. Personal Tax Incentives 2. Corporate Tax Incentives 3. Sales Tax Incentives 4. Property Tax Incentives 5. Rebates 6. Grants 7. Loans 8. Industry Support 9. Bonds, and 10. Production Incentives. On top of these financial incentives, state and local governments have established rules, regulations and policies (like RPS [see slide #135]), with the purpose of encouraging or mandating the development and increased sale and consumption of energy from renewable sources. © john droz, jr.
  • And More To Come! IN ADDITION TO THE FOREGOING: on 12/08 some 200 (!) bills were pending before the U.S. Congress that include even more incentives for various types of alternative energy, mostly wind energy... The bottom line of this unprecedented giveaway is that — 1 - wind energy developers make 25%±/year profit, 2 - oil and other multi-national companies “invest” in wind energy to avoid most taxes (and for public relations). © john droz, jr.
  • Financial Comparison #3 Utility Ratepayer Costs © john droz, jr. {For five representative countries.}
  • Germany Spain US Canada Denmark 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Bad Renewables % ¢/KWH (2007 Data) What’s the Correlation with Higher Wind Energy Usage and Residential Electricity Rates? © john droz, jr.
  • N Denmark Germany Spain US Canada 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Good Renewables % ¢/KWH (2007 Data) What’s the Correlation with Higher GOOD Renewables Usage and Residential Electricity Rates? © john droz, jr. Note: the scale of the right Y axis (green) is 4x the left Y axis.
  • As we raise the cost of electricity, remember that Quality of Life STRONGLY Correlates to Electricity Consumption CIA World Factbook 2007 © john droz, jr.
  • 7 - Does wind energy make a consequential reduction of CO2 ? NO! No independent scientific study has ever proven that wind energy saves a meaningful amount of CO2. In fact, the most independent scientific study done (by the National Academy of Sciences) says the U.S. CO2 savings by 2020 will amount to only 1.8%. [An EIA report for the US Congress concluded that CO2 savings would be about 1.3%.] These are trivial quantities! [The Bentek study concluded that CO2 emissions would actually increase in many cases.] © john droz, jr.
  • Consider This... The country with the lowest CO2 per KWH is: — FRANCE — the country with the most Nuclear Power. CO2 in Perspective — © john droz, jr.
  • Consider This... The country with the highest CO2 per KWH is: — DENMARK — the country with the most Wind Energy. CO2 in Perspective — © john droz, jr.
  • How High Is The Sky? CO2 in Perspective — © john droz, jr. Mt Everest
  • Nitrogen 78% Oxygen 21% What’s In The Atmosphere? (Note that the CO2 part is so small it doesn’t show up.) Argon 1% CO2 in Perspective — © john droz, jr.
  • This graph shows the world-wide major sources of CO2. [There are also sinks, but these are much harder to quantify.] Let’s Look at Just the Tiny CO2 Part 4% 1% 38% 57% Surface Ocean Respiration Man-Made —> Deforestation —> CO2 in Perspective — © john droz, jr.
  • Let’s say that all the air in the earth’s atmosphere is stacked up in a cylinder, which extends one mile high. Worldwide, citizens are being asked to spend $75± Trillion Dollars on Global Warming solutions. If successful, how much of this air will we change (i.e. some of the man-made CO2 part)? 1 Mile CO2 in Perspective — © john droz, jr.
  • 1 Mile Only About a Quarter of an Inch! CO2 in Perspective — © john droz, jr.
  • Here is Something to Ponder CO2 in Perspective — Insects may produce 10± TIMES the amount of CO2 generated by human activity. © john droz, jr.
  • 0 25 50 75 100 Renewables Generation Transmission Nuclear Power Worldwide Contribution to CO2 Reductions Since 1973 CO2 in Perspective — © john droz, jr.
  • Consider This... Wind is 13 times the cost of Nuclear! © john droz, jr. And this does NOT take into account ALL the wind costs, so it is actually much worse than this.
  • Question! Looking at the two largest man-made sources of CO2 in the U.S. (transportation & electricity) since 1950 (60± years): 1-the number of transportation miles driven has increased by 6.5x, & 2-the amount of annual electricity generated has increased by 12.5x. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on what you’ve read and heard, how much do you think that the annual amount of man-made CO2 produced in the U.S (over this same 59 year time period) would have increased by: no increase, 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x, 6x, 7x, 8x, 9x, or 10x? © john droz, jr. CO2 in Perspective —
  • 2600 5200 7800 10400 13000 1950 1980 2007 BMTCarbon 58 Year History of Man-made CO2 Emissions Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) & Global Carbon Project (9/26/08) USA Global 43% 19% Point at which 350 ppm of CO2 was reached (Hansen, Gore, McKibben: disaster level) Global Implementation of Industrial Wind Power Started About Here © john droz, jr. CO2 in Perspective —
  • 2600 5200 7800 10400 13000 1950 1980 2010 BMTCarbon 15% 80 Year Overview of Man-made CO2 Emissions CDIAC + Global Carbon Project (9/26/08) + EIA Projections (dashed) to 2030 With Wind Power Without Wind Power 43% 19% Global USA © john droz, jr. 2030 CO2 in Perspective — Point at which 350 ppm of CO2 was reached (Hansen, Gore, McKibben: disaster level) Global Implementation of Industrial Wind Power Started About Here
  • 2600 5200 7800 10400 13000 1950 1980 2010 BMTCarbon 12% 80 Year Overview of Man-made CO2 Emissions II CDIAC + Global Carbon Project (9/26/08) + EIA Projections (dashed) to 2030 Current Plan: W/WO Wind Power Radical 25% Plan 43% 19% What would be the global impact if the US embarked on a radical program that was able to reduce its CO2 by the extraordinary amount of 25% by 2030? Global USA Global Implementation of Industrial Wind Power Started About Here © john droz, jr. 2030 CO2 in Perspective — Point at which 350 ppm of CO2 was reached (Hansen, Gore, McKibben: disaster level)
  • * An Explanation of the Prior Three “Global Warming” Slides (some of the words given at the live presentation) These three slides may be the most important ones in this presentation. This first one shows the answer to the question I just asked: 2x. Note that how over an almost 60 year period, that the US’s CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) emissions have gone up very slowly – particularly if you consider our much higher population, huge escalation in annual electricity use, big increase in annual mileage driven, etc. Also compare the US CO2 emissions line to the rapidly increasing global CO2 line. Big difference! In 1950 we were a large portion of the problem (43%± of the global amount). Today, not so much (only 19%±, and declining). Two conclusions come from this: #1- the US is not the main problem, and #2- what the US has been doing for the last 50+ years has been reasonably prudent. That’s not to say that we can’t — and shouldn’t — try to do better. As a point of reference I’ve added one more relevant piece of data. Recently the primary Global Warming advocates have been pushing a new number that their evangelist, Dr. James Hansen, came up with: “the safe upper limit for atmospheric CO2 is no more than 350 ppm.” He predicts a series of disasters if this isn’t fixed very soon. [Note that we went past this concentration in 1988.] The second slide in this group shows the future, as projected by the government and CO2 experts. Note again the US line, and then compare it to the total worldwide line. It still seems to me that the US is not the real problem, AND that the US’s path into the future (without wind energy) is quite reasonable. [Note: when I mention “Global Warming” in this presentation, I am referring to the anthropogenic (man-made) global warming (AGW) hypothesis.] — continued — © john droz, jr.
  • * An Explanation of the Prior Three “Global Warming” Slides (continued) Another conclusion from this data (considering the magnitude of the global CO2 problem) is that NO renewable source of electrical power can possibly make more than a tiny impact on global CO2. For example, the US "with wind energy" and "without wind energy" projection part (2008 to 2030) are actually two lines, but there is so little difference that they are indistinguishable on the graph, and it looks like one line. Note also the point where wind energy started to be used worldwide. Do you see any improvement in the graph’s slope from that time? In other words, where is the CO2 saved by the 100,000± turbines operating today? Another conclusion is that the government could to try to force (e.g. via a “Renewable Portfolio Standard”) an enormous reduction of our CO2 emissions (let’s say 25%). This would be extraordinarily expensive (literally over a trillion dollars) and cause substantial environmental harm (e.g. by requiring a million+ turbines). But even this huge amount of savings would have a negligible affect on the global CO2 situation, and could be immediately swamped by several natural or man-made CO2 sources. And look closely at the Hansen/Gore disaster line. It should be abundantly clear that nothing we do in this country will have any meaningful impact on global CO2. So what would we have accomplished for such a huge expenditure and sacrifice? Very little. These graphs tell us that concepts of “carbon-neutral,” and “clean, green, renewable energy” sound PC (politically correct), but the reality is that they do not make sense from scientific, economic, or environmental perspectives. In other words we need to adopt environmental improvement policies that are SC (Scientifically Correct). — continued — © john droz, jr.
  • * Still More Explanation of the Prior Three “Global Warming” Slides (continued) A trump card that promoters of drastic Global Warming action frequently pull out, is the fact that the US has high CO2 emissions per capita. Although that is true, it is not an accurate representation of the whole picture. What is missing is the fact that the US (until recently) enjoyed what can best be summarized as a “free market,” and has one of, if not the most, carbon efficient (productive) economies in the world as measured by CO2/$GDP. We’re often accused of having less than 5% world population but 20%± of GHG emissions — yet we SELDOM hear the other fact that we’re responsible for 30%+ of world GDP and 35%± of the world’s food. We feed, clothe, house and protect the world which is now being turned against us. The agenda is to get us to handicap ourselves and to pay third world countries for our success. The major beneficiary here will be China. You can be sure that they will not be handicapping their economy. Other evidence of our efficiency (and already reasonable efforts) is to look at US CO2 over the last 60 years — which is on these slides. Despite massive increase in transportation mileage, electricity generation, concrete usage, etc., our CO2 emissions have gone up relatively little. [Re transportation: "The average new car on the road today runs 97% cleaner than the average car built in 1970, thanks to a combination of cleaner gasoline and more efficient engines." Re electricity: A large part of this is due to nuclear energy. Don't forget that there were no nuclear energy facilities in 1950.] Additionally I see few analysts assessing the negative global impact attributable to our wearing a hair shirt and voluntarily handicapping our economy. China and India will not be doing the same. What needs to be done is to start with a comprehensive list of ALL of the benefits the US provides the rest of the planet. Then analyze the significant global costs for when these will be cut back. Let’s keep things in perspective. © john droz, jr.
  • * A Postscript about the “Global Warming” Issue How does an individual’s position on Global Warming affect their support of Industrial Wind Energy? Well, let’s look at the two extremes: 1 - If someone was a strong advocate of the Global Warming theory, they would also accept the dire imminent consequences postulated by its lead proponents (e.g. Hansen, Gore, Romm). As such they would be very committed to taking measures that were guaranteed to result in a large reduction of CO2, in short order. But all independent scientific evidence to date says that wind energy only makes a trivial reduction of CO2, and well into the future at that. As such they would be against wind energy as an inefficient use of time and money. 2 - If, on the other hand, a person was a skeptic of the Global Warming theory, then they would likewise not believe that man-made CO2 is a major cause of concern. Since the main reason for wind energy’s existence is its promise to meaningfully reduce CO2, that result would be of little value to them. As such they would be against wind energy as a waste of time and money. So it seems to me that no matter which side of the Global Warming debate a person falls on, wind energy is not any part of the answer. [Note: for the purpose of this presentation, we will make the assumption that the viewer is an advocate of the Global Warming Theory.] © john droz, jr.
  • Let’s Look at Some Facts about Greenhouse Gases CO2 in Perspective — © john droz, jr.
  • CO2 3.6% NO2 .9% Methane .4% Misc .1%Water Vapor 95% What Are The Greenhouse Gases? CO2 in Perspective — © john droz, jr.
  • * An Explanation of the Prior “Greenhouse Gas” Slide (some of the words given at the live presentation) According to the US government, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): “The feedback loop in which water is involved is critically important to projecting future climate change, but as yet is still fairly poorly measured and understood… huge scientific uncertainty exists in defining the extent and importance of the water vapor/climate affect feedback loop… The future monitoring of atmospheric processes involving water vapor will be critical to fully understand the feedbacks in the climate system leading to global climate change. As yet (though the basics of the hydrological cycle are fairly well understood), we have very little comprehension of the complexity of the feedback loops. Also, while we have good atmospheric measurements of other key greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, we have poor measurements of global water vapor, so it is not certain by how much atmospheric concentrations have changed in recent decades or centuries…” In other words, VERY LITTLE IS KNOWN ABOUT WATER VAPOR — which is BY FAR the most common greenhouse gas… Because of its large volume, SMALL changes in water vapor would have enormously higher effects than LARGE changes in CO2. So what are we doing about reducing water vapor. Oh, nothing. And there’s more... © john droz, jr.
  • What % of Greenhouse Gases are Man-Made? CO2 in Perspective — © john droz, jr. water vapor — 0% carbon dioxide — 4% nitrous oxide — 5% methane — 18% misc — 66% TOTAL — .28% In other words: if humans were eliminated from the planet, there would be only a .28% reduction in greenhouse gas concentrations! PPB’s adjusted for heat retention characteristics
  • “IT IS ERROR ONLY, AND NOT TRUTH, THAT SHRINKS FROM INQUIRY.” — Thomas Paine
  • What about the critical factor of Capacity Value? The result of its inherent deficiencies (including the fact that wind energy is proportional to the cube of the wind speed), is that wind energy has a Capacity Value of near zero. Compare this to the conventional sources, where essentially all of them have a Capacity Value near 100%. This is a simply stunning disparity. © john droz, jr.
  • Yes, you heard this right: The U.S. is now on the path to spend s-e-v-e-r-a-l TRILLION dollars on an electrical source that FAILS five out of six of our historically important power generation criteria, AND has no scientific proof that it meets the new emissions criterion, AND has very little Capacity Value! © john droz, jr.
  • So how did we get into the Energy Ditch? Same answer as to how Wall Street got into the Financial Ditch: GREED & IGNORANCE © john droz, jr.
  • How Much is a Trillion Dollars? ???
  • For our demonstration, let’s use the largest bill in general circulation ($100): How Much is a Trillion Dollars?
  • A packet of one hundred $100 bills is 1/2"± thick and contains $10,000: How Much is a Trillion Dollars?
  • This is $1 Million (100 packets): How Much is a Trillion Dollars?
  • This is a $100 Million (on a shipping pallet): How Much is a Trillion Dollars?
  • This is $1 Billion (10 pallets): How Much is a Trillion Dollars?
  • This is $1 Trillion... How Much is a Trillion Dollars? Note the man!
  • The Most Important Equation To Remember: 1 MW ≠ 1 MW © john droz, jr. *
  • Just Like: © john droz, jr. * ≠
  • Both power sources produce an average of 1 MW. Are they equal? © john droz, jr. * 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 MW Power Source #1 Power Source #2
  • If you understand this, you’ll know more than 90% of the “experts”: 1 MW ≠ 1 MW © john droz, jr. *
  • * An Explanation of the Prior Four “Equation” Slides (some of the words given at the live presentation) A second important reason we’ve lost our way (in addition to greed) is that most politicians, environmentalists and even many scientists don’t understand this profoundly important equation: that 1 MW (Megawatt) of one type of electricity is NOT the same as any another 1 MW of electricity. Consider an analogy to understand what may seem to be a contradiction. It’s clear what the second slide says, right? Let’s say a company wants to hire someone to get some work done. Is any one person the same as any other person to do that job? Of course not! They would differ in the amount of work they could perform, their reliability, dependability, skill, cooperativeness, cost, etc. So 1 Person ≠ 1 Person. The third (graph) slide says this in a different way. Even though the average output of two power sources can be the same, that obviously does not mean that they are equal. So it is with electricity sources, and that’s the message of the six grid characteristics just reviewed: there are BIG differences. That’s an underlying flaw in government policies pushing wind energy, as one of the assumptions is that all electrical power sources are basically equal. Hopefully you can now see that they are not, and that 1 MW of nuclear power (for instance) does not equal 1 MW of wind energy (they differ in reliability, dispatchability, cost, etc.). In other words: 1 MW ≠ 1 MW! © john droz, jr.
  • In addition to grid deficiencies, there are numerous other legitimate concerns about industrial wind energy, like: —> bird and bat mortality, —> adverse agricultural impacts, —> noise intrusions, —> flicker effect, —> other human health issues, —> farm animal health matters, —> visual pollution, —> property devaluation, —> ice throws, —> environmental destruction, —> decommissioning, etc., etc. But what if they were “fixed”? Would Industrial Wind Energy then be OK? © john droz, jr.
  • Let’s assume that the number one concern of your town is the health and welfare of all of its citizens. To address some of the Wind Energy problems just mentioned (noise intrusion, flicker effect, health issues, etc.), your town requires that all turbines be at least one mile from any home (developers typically propose a separation of 1000 feet). Would Industrial Wind Energy then be OK? © john droz, jr.
  • NO! Industrial Wind Energy will not be an acceptable source until all seven requirements are met. As of now, Wind Energy is not a legitimate part of any serious energy solution. Power Pole Typical Tree Transmission Line Large Wind Turbine © john droz, jr.(2.5 MW size)
  • When Wind Energy proponents say: mañana, the appropriate response is: “Then come back mañana when everything is worked out.” © john droz, jr. {To try to diffuse its numerous limitations, wind energy proponents usually say that these problems will be “fixed” in the future.}
  • A good example of getting away from the Science is the Renewable Portfolio Standard: RPS In effect, this arbitrary and artificial Political mandate forces utilities to use wind energy — even though it does not materially benefit: 1) the Electrical Grid, 2) the Environment, or 3) Tax & Rate Payers. It does however, materially benefit lobbyists and the multi-national companies that employ them. © john droz, jr.
  • The Claimed Financial Benefits from an RPS: 1 - Economic Development — very little 2 - Price (Rate) Suppression — zero 3 - Environmental — tiny These conclusions are based on NY state’s own analysis! To get these “Benefits” NYS is spending something like Two Billion Dollars...
  • * An Explanation of the Prior “RPS Benefits” Slide (Part 1) We will use NYS as an example, as their experiences are fairly typical. In late 2008 two consulting firms (Summit Blue and KEMA) were hired to analyze different aspects of the NYS RPS program. Both of these firms are closely aligned with the renewable industry, so their ability (and interest) to perform a critical analysis of the RPS program immediately comes into question, so keep that in mind. (To read these lengthy reports see the PDF versions at <<http://tinyurl.com/pmynab>> and <<http://tinyurl.com/qxp9yv>.) Despite the almost 700 pages of technical jargon, for all practical purposes the bottom line is found on page 52 (5-19), Table 16 of the KEMA report. This summarizes both reports’ conclusions, that it is their contention that the RPS results in three economic returns to NYS (over a 24 year period): 1) general economic benefits [e.g. employment related; they call this NYS Gross State Product (GSP)], 2) “price suppression” of electricity costs, and 3) environmental [e.g. CO2 reductions]. Remember that the number one reason for imposing the RPS on the citizens of NYS is item #3 in the reports above: Environmental. So what do these reports say about the environmental value of the NYS RPS? When adding up all the projected benefits to NYS citizens (see Table 16), the environmental part amounts to about .00005 of the total! That’s 1/20,000… [This is consistent with independent analyses of low emission savings: <<http://tinyurl.com/n3cdx9>>.] So carefully think about this key conclusion of the pro-wind consultants hired to assess the financial benefits of NYS’s RPS program: the main reason for doing the RPS will result in a projected benefit of $129,000± — at a NYS cost of $500,000,000±. Continuing on, item 2 (“price suppression”) was reported to account for 72% (over 2 billion dollars) of the economic benefits of the NYS RPS. But how valid is that? Here’s a key thought: to assess the benefits of forcing renewable energies on NYS citizens, an accurate calculation should be based on comparing the cost and benefits of: 1) adding a certain amount of renewable energy sources vs 2) adding equivalent generation of the best conventional energy sources. That is NOT what was done in these reports! So if we wade through the data used to come up with the “price suppression” amounts, and this time add an equivalent amount of nuclear power generation (instead of the renewables generation used in the report), what “price suppression” is there from the “renewables” option? The answer is ZERO! (See our slides 140 through 142 for a more detailed explanation of this.) — continued — © john droz, jr.
  • * An Explanation of the “RPS Benefits” Slide (Part 2) We are working up the ladder, so we can now look at item #1: general economic benefits. These are reported to account for about 28% of the total supposed NYS RPS financial returns. The primary basis for this calculation is a computer model called JEDI. This software program came about as a way to quantify the benefits of adding wind power. This was never intended to be a comprehensive, independent tool to objectively look at real economic effects for adding new energy sources. It’s more about justifying wind power promotion. This computer model has several favorable assumptions built into it, plus it ignores many negative economic consequences of renewable implementation. To get a good idea of JEDI’s limitations and omissions read this critique by an independent energy expert: <<http://tinyurl.com/mwdfse>>. And there are additional JEDI limitations that have come to the surface since his report was released! As an example, there have been numerous independent studies that have challenged the “green jobs” political assertions made by promoters of renewable energies. (None of these considerations are adequately dealt with by JEDI.) Here is a small sample: 1 -<<http://tinyurl.com/cpmwrj>> 2 -<<http://tinyurl.com/34q66kj>> 3 -<<http://tinyurl.com/dhlvm5>> 4 -<<http://tinyurl.com/lt9ero>> 5 -<<http://tinyurl.com/3y5nggk>> 6 -<<http://tinyurl.com/cl2hpf”>> When taking this all into account, the general economic benefits to NYS citizens is likely to be ZERO. (Some contend that it is negative.) This is a citizen-based presentation, so we have purposely done a quick overview here. Our basic premise is that to accurately assess a complicated program like the NYS RPS, only competent consultants who have no financial stake in the outcome should be hired to evaluate it — and they should be instructed to use conservative assumptions. That is not the case with Summit Blue and KEMA, as they both have a stake in the success of renewable energies, and do not appear to have been given instructions to be conservative. So the observations we made above should come as no surprise. It appears these reports have been initiated with the intent of justifying the RPS — not to do a conservatively critical examination of its true costs and benefits. {Note: Due to the several links on this and the prior slide, they are only found here, on these pages, not in the References at the end.} © john droz, jr.
  • * An Explanation of the “RPS Benefits” Slide (Part 3) World famous economist Milton Friedman once was an advisor to a foreign government. One day he was taken to a job site where men were hard at work, but just using shovels. He asked where the earth-moving equipment was? The response of his host was that there wasn’t any, as using such equipment would cost jobs. Friedman pondered this a moment, then asked: "So why don't you give them spoons then?" ------------ “This was quintessential Friedman: Employment doesn’t make us wealthy - production does. It’s not the job that matters, it’s producing something of value that does. Some people see the job as the means to the end, but it is not. Free men own property, slaves work jobs.” ------------ Most high paying wind “jobs” go to specialized personnel that travel site to site. Local employment is minimal and mostly temporary. The developers are typically multi-national foreign corporations, so US benefits are low. We would be much further ahead if subsidies were applied to real sources of quality power — like nuclear and geothermal. <<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124355131075164361.html>> <<http://tarpon.wordpress.com/2009/05/27/milton-friedman-shovels-vs-spoons/>> © john droz, jr.
  • With the NYS RPS, 72% of the benefits are supposed to be due to “price suppression,” so let’s look closer at that... Here is figure 44 from the Summit report © john droz, jr. The first non-intuitive fact you have to grasp is this: the suppliers of electricity each submit a bid (their cost + profit) for providing a certain amount of electricity (MW), over a defined time period. [See graph for those typical amounts.] What happens, though, is that THEY ALL GET PAID THE AMOUNT OF THE HIGHEST BID UTILIZED! (In this example it is $80/MWh.) This is yet another reason why wind power is exceptionally profitable.
  • More on “price suppression” #2... Here is figure 45 from the Summit report © john droz, jr. The savings calculation is based on an assumption: if there is 500 MW of added wind power, then that would shift the lower part of the supply curve to the right (see graph), and maybe result in a lower cost across the board. In this example it does change the cost from $80/MWh to $60/MWh. So is this a true savings from adding wind power?
  • More on “price suppression” #3... Here is figure 45 from the Summit report © john droz, jr. Their chart also demonstrates another fact: ANY NEW LOW COST SUPPLY THAT PROVIDES AN EXTRA 500 MW WOULD ALSO SHIFT THE CURVE TO THE RIGHT! (See graph.) Go back to Summit figure 44 and you’ll see that adding 500 MW of Nuclear will provide the exact same price suppression. So the REAL question is this: does wind energy provide price suppression compared to Nuclear power? The answer is NO.
  • — Summary — The Financial Benefits from an RPS: 1 - Economic Development — very little 2 - Price (Rate) Suppression — zero 3 - Environmental — tiny These conclusions are based on NY state’s own analysis! To get these “Benefits” NYS is spending something like Two Billion Dollars... © john droz, jr.
  • “I CARE NOT A STRAW FOR THE OPINIONS OF THE WORLD.” — Thomas Paine
  • What IS a “Renewable” Anyway? “An energy resource that is replaced in a reasonable amount of time.” Some experts believe that we have 2500 years of nuclear fuel available. Who is to say what is a “reasonable amount of time”? 10 years? 100 years? 1000 years? Yet most politicians and environmentalists arbitrarily choose not to call nuclear a renewable... © john droz, jr.
  • On The Other Hand Consider This (part 1): Large amounts of Rare Earth elements are necessary for industrial wind energy generation. PS — Currently the sole source of these elements is China, so that invalidates the “energy independence” claim too! But Rare Earth elements are NOT replaced in “a reasonable amount of time.” © john droz, jr. In some cases: “two tons of rare earth magnets are required in the permanent magnet generator that goes on top of each turbine.”
  • On The Other Hand Consider This (part 2): Large amounts of LAND are a necessary element of industrial wind energy generation. In the US we will run out of suitable land for industrial wind energy before we run out of any fossil fuels used for electricity! Shouldn’t the whole package qualify before a source is labelled as “renewable”? But land is NOT replaced in “a reasonable amount of time.” © john droz, jr.
  • So Which is the True Renewable: Wind Energy or Nuclear Power? © john droz, jr.
  • Two Nineteenth Century Technologies © john droz, jr.Ref http://tinyurl.com/lfw32c *
  • RPS is Like Forcing 20% of our Cargo Ships to Revert to Being Wind Powered Ships © john droz, jr. *
  • *RPS is Like Forcing 20% of our Automobiles to Revert to Being Horse Drawn Vehicles © john droz, jr.
  • * An Explanation of the Prior three “RPS Analogy” Slides (some of the words given at the live presentation) An electrical energy RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standard) makes about as much sense as would an edict mandating that a large percentage of our commercial shipping fleet must be operated by wind energy in a few years. Consider the enormous consequences of that. For instance, it might take a 1000 clipper ships to carry the same load as a modern cargo vessel. (Interestingly this is quite similar to the relationship between wind turbines and nuclear power — so you might look at the modern cargo ship as a nuclear power facility.) Because of the unattractive implications wind energy would have on the shipping business, many customers would take their business elsewhere. The result of this would be that airlines, railroads and trucking would ramp up their operations to account for increased traffic. All that would mean much more fossil fuel used by those sources. Etc., etc. So shipping costs would go up significantly, efficiency would go down, and there’d be little if any environmental benefit. The exact same thing can be said of the electrical RPS: high cost, miniscule benefit, and numerous other problems caused. The same analogy applies for mandating that some cars be replaced by horse drawn vehicles. © john droz, jr.
  • Our Electrical Power Choices are — 1: a 1 GW Nuclear Facility 2: a 1 GW Wind Energy Project + a 1 GW Gas (low efficiency) Facility — OR — Lowest Total Cost = #1 Lowest KWH Rate = #1 Lowest CO2 Emissions = #1 Least Transmission Lines = #1 Least Environmental Harm = #1 Least Human Harm = #1 Most Compact = #1 Most Renewable = #1 Fastest Online = #2 SCORECARD: © john droz, jr.
  • Our Electrical Power Choices are — 1: a 1 GW Gas (high efficiency) Facility 2: a 1 GW Wind Energy Project + a 1 GW Gas (low efficiency) Facility — OR — Lowest Total Cost = #1 Lowest KWH Rate = #1 Lowest CO2 Emissions = #1 Least Transmission Lines = #1 Least Environmental Harm = #1 Least Human Harm = #1 Most Compact = #1 Most Renewable = #1 Fastest Online = #1 SCORECARD: © john droz, jr.
  • Does this sound like a Wise National Electrical Energy Policy? 1 - Spend something like a Trillion dollars, 2 - Increase utility rates substantially, 3 - Cover hundreds of thousands of acres of land with wind turbines, 4 - Have a thousand+ miles of new transmission lines, and 5 - Cause numerous hardships to humans and the environment. Net Benefit: Save 2%± CO2 By promoting Wind Energy, this is the path we are currently on... © john droz, jr.
  • In “a picture is worth a thousand words department”: All you want to know about “Cap & Trade”A “Solution” for Every Problem — NOT! 1-Wind is unreliable 2-Wind is unpredictable 3-Wind is uncontrollable 4-Wind is very expensive 5-Wind doesn’t save very much CO2 6-Wind causes human health problems 7-Wind is not a renewable 8-No utility wants wind etc., etc. 1-Back it up with fossil fuel sources 2-Have massive redundancy 3-Change demand to accommodate the wind 4-Make conventional sources more costly 5-Sell wind instead as a source of “economic development” 6-Who cares? It’s just a few complainers in some rural areas 7-Redefine the term “renewable” 8-Mandate wind with a RPS etc., etc. This is what happens when politicians support lobbyist driven solutions — rather than scientific ones. © john droz, jr.
  • © john droz, jr. {New York is used as an example here but similar results are happening in many other states and provinces...} Wind Energy is NOT inevitable! Taking NYS as an example, quite a few communities there have been successful at fighting this assault. To name some: Albion Allegheny Andes Beekmantown Bethany Bovina Brandon Bristol Canadice Castile Centerville Cherry Valley Ellenburg Gaines Gainesville Gorham Hartsville Henderson Howard Irondequoit Italy Lyme Malone Meredith Naples Oakfield Pavilion Perry Plattsburgh Prattsburgh Rensselaerville Sardinia Sheldon Skaneateles South Bristol Springwater Stafford Stamford Stark Tioga Warren Warsaw Westfield Yorkshire ...
  • Ralph Nader coined a famous phrase: that Corvairs were Unsafe at ANY Speed. © john droz, jr.
  • The Scientific Evidence says that Industrial Wind Energy is Unsatisfactory in ANY setting. © john droz, jr.
  • Does wind energy’s abysmal failure mean that all “renewables” are similarly poor? NO! Each new alternative power source needs to be objectively evaluated, independently — i.e. using Scientific Methodology. From scientific literature (e.g. MIT’s 2007 report) industrial Geothermal holds significant promise. © john droz, jr.
  • Fact: The earth’s magma is hotter than the surface of the Sun! Fact: Industrial Geothermal can be located almost anywhere. Fact: In 2007, Industrial Geothermal produced as much U.S. electricity as Wind Energy did![Ref EIA 2009 Annual Energy Review.] A working Industrial Geothermal generator. An example of how Industrial Geothermal works. © john droz, jr.
  • In “a picture is worth a thousand words department”: All you want to know about “Cap & Trade” © john droz, jr.
  • The Basics of a Solution... 1 - Set up an Energy FDA. (See EEA article at WindPowerFacts.Info) [This would assure that for any alternative power source to be an acceptable new option, it would need independent & objective scientific testing to verify that it was technologically, economically and environmentally sound — and at least equal to conventional sources.] 2 - Give Federal & State subsidies only to technologies that pass the Energy FDA. (We would save about 75% of what is scheduled now.) 3 - Use 90%± of our expenditures on improving the conventional sources that already work (e.g. by reducing their pollutants). This would include promoting nuclear power, worldwide. 4 - Use the rest to explore new options — like increasing delivered efficiency, improving motor efficiencies, etc. Citizens, businesses & the utility industry must get serious about minimizing waste. © john droz, jr.
  • 2007 U.S. Electricity Flow — Showing Delivered Efficiency — (Quadrillion Btu/Year) (which includes Hydro) *
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  • * An Explanation of the Prior Three “Delivered Efficiency” Slides (some of the words given at the live presentation) One example of these ideas is to look closer at what’s called delivered efficiency. The fact is that in the US only about a third of the original energy at a power plant makes it to the end user. That’s a lot of waste! What that says is that this area has the potential for substantial improvements. It also says that meaningful reductions of these losses could not only save us the huge cost of building new facilities, but actually allow us to close coal facilities — something that wind energy does not do. The second slide is another representation of delivered efficiency. (Slides two and three in this set are courtesy of Tom Casten.) A very interesting fact that Mr. Casten shows in the third slide is that this relatively low efficiency rate of delivered electricity has not improved in over fifty years! Considering all the technological advances that have occurred during this time, this is indeed surprising. He has several ideas about improving efficiency, like doing such things as recycling waste heat, and changing archaic regulations. You’ll have to read his reports to see the details, but his calculations show that by doing these the US could reduce its CO2 emissions by some 20%. This is 10 times the amount that wind energy will do! © john droz, jr.
  • Some Advantages: — Reliable — Dispatchable — 24/7 Base Load — Compact — Economical — Very Safe — No CO2 Emissions — 1 unit = 20,000 homes — No Transmission Lines {e.g. NuScale, Toshiba} An Example of a Creative Solution: Mini-Nuclear © john droz, jr.
  •  65±% of all electricity used in the US is by motors  Typical electric motors are only 50-60% efficient  Making these motors more efficient would save enormous amounts of electricity Example: Trezium • Costs more to begin with, but • Reduces electricity loss by up to half • Weighs half as much for the same output • Is more reliable and more durable • Runs safer and quieter • Has less lifetime maintenance Another Potential Solution: © john droz, jr.
  • Energy Sources should be matched to Energy Tasks We Need To Understand & Apply EXERGY (Absolute Energy Efficiency) in most cases today “we are using a chainsaw to cut butter” © john droz, jr.
  • Still More Examples of Potential Solutions: © john droz, jr. Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor (LFTR) (“An unlimited supply of economic fuel.”) High Temp Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGR) (MIT: “Safest nuclear plant ever built.”) Hydro-Thermal Power (Marshall: “A single vent has 5x the power of a nuclear plant.”) Fuel Cell (E.g. BloomBox is being used by several major companies.) Magnetic Power (MPI: “Self-contained, pollution free, electric power generation technologies that operate continuously without fuel.”)
  • Critical Thinking Non-Science = Non-Sense © john droz, jr.
  • * An Explanation of the Following “Marketing” Slides (some of the words given at the live presentation) As I stated in the beginning, one of my main purposes here is to encourage you to do Critical Thinking on this very important technical, financial and environmental matter. Once you start such thinking you’ll soon realize that non-Scientific solutions (for example, political solutions like RPS) are non-Sense. So we are going to end on that theme. Because of the enormous amounts of money involved, citizens are arrayed against some very formidable forces — and the last thing they want you to do, is Critical Thinking. To sell wind energy to you, they’ve hired Madison Ave marketers to pull out all the stops. And indeed they are doing just that. At last count profiteers have employed no less than EIGHT different marketing techniques against us. The message here is that the best defense against these is to use Critical Thinking. On the following slides I’ll reveal some of the more frequently utilized marketing tactics. Knowledge is power! © john droz, jr.
  • * Their Sales Strategy #1: Focus on the $$$ (to appeal to that woefully widespread weakness: greed) e.g. wind projects will bring jobs & economic development. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Our Defense: Critical Thinking. If you do some reflection you’ll realize that energy expenditures are to bring us reliable and economic power — and that ALL energy expenditures result in jobs, etc. © john droz, jr.
  • Their Sales Strategy #2: Religious Zealotry (to convert this issue into a matter of right and wrong) e.g. “support for all things green is a moral imperative”. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Our Defense: Critical Thinking. After you think this through you’ll see that there is nothing “moral” about supporting unscientific ideas. * © john droz, jr.
  • Their Sales Strategy #3: Social Marketing (to make us think that their product is good for society) e.g. “Industrial Wind Energy is Free, Clean, & Green”. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Our Defense: Critical Thinking. After you check it out you’ll see that Wind Energy electricity is not really Free, Clean, or Green. © john droz, jr. *
  • Their Sales Strategy #4: Greenwashing (a business tries to make itself look more environmentally friendly than is really is) e.g. “Wind Power helps the environment”. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Our Defense: Critical Thinking. After you check it out you’ll see that Wind Energy is a blight on the environment. © john droz, jr. *
  • The manufacture and delivery of the concrete in EACH wind turbine base produces over 250,000 pounds of CO2. That’s the weight of over nine empty 18-wheelers... © john droz, jr. *
  • Their Sales Strategy #5: Confuse Us (to take advantage of our lack of knowledge about their product by connecting it with current prevalent public concerns) e.g. “Industrial Wind Energy reduces our dependence on foreign oil”. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Our Defense: Critical Thinking. After you check it out you’ll see that there is no real connection between Wind Energy and foreign oil. © john droz, jr. *
  • Their Sales Strategy #6: Sleight of Hand (To take advantage of our belief that something should be done, they morph this into a position that anything should be done. A variation of this is “every little bit helps”.) e.g. “Industrial Wind Energy should be part of our energy strategy”. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Our Defense: Critical Thinking. After you investigate the situation you’ll be asking why should something with trivial benefits, high cost, and is environmentally destructive, be part of any solution? © john droz, jr. *
  • While your house is burning down, a helpful profiteer arrives with some cases of bottled water. He offers to sell bottles to you, as a “partial” solution, at $50 each. Since the water came from a local retailer, he says it’s promoting economic development! © john droz, jr. *
  • While the planet is reportedly burning up, helpful profiteers arrive with a portfolio of wind turbines. They offer to sell these to us, as a “partial” solution, at Trillions of $. Since a tiny amount of this will stay in the community, they say it’s promoting economic development! © john droz, jr. *
  • © john droz, jr. Since we have limited resources, the money wasted on low-benefit wind energy could have been spent with much greater returns elsewhere (e.g. nuclear).   Anyone who really is a believer in the "every little bit helps, no matter what the cost" theory, would also support the government MANDATING that 20% of our commercial ships revert to sailing vessels, and that 20% of our cars become horse-drawn vehicles — as these would actually save a LOT of fossil fuel. (Reference earlier RPS slides.) Why aren’t wind promoters advocating that? More About Putting “Every Little Bit Helps” Into Perspective Does it really makes sense to be paying $1000 per pound of CO2 saved? *
  • Their Sales Strategy #7: Reality Distortion (to phrase matters in an inaccurate perspective) e.g. “Nuclear power plants could be targets of terrorists.” ------------------------------------------------------------------ Our Defense: Critical Thinking. After you check it out you’ll see that this is an extraordinarily low possibility. © john droz, jr. *
  • Their Sales Strategy #8: Make You AFRAID (to push some hot button that instills in you some fear) e.g. “Transporting nuclear power waste is extremely dangerous.” ------------------------------------------------------------------ Our Defense: Critical Thinking. After you look into it out you’ll see that this transportation is very safe. © john droz, jr. *
  • Head on Crash Test of Truck with Nuclear Fuel Container (Part of a series of extensive tests performed by Sandia Labs) © john droz, jr. *
  • Side on Crash Test of Truck with Nuclear Fuel Container (Part of a series of extensive tests performed by Sandia Labs) © john droz, jr. *
  • Another case of manufacturing Fear. Which item gives off more radioactivity: A truckload of bananas, or a truck carrying nuclear waste? © john droz, jr.
  • Their Sales Strategy #9: Sell The Sizzle (to take the focus off their lack of substance) e.g. “wind power is an energy resource”. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Our Defense: Critical Thinking. After you consider this, you’ll say so what? Modern power needs capacity resources. * © john droz, jr.
  • Their Sales Strategy #10: Manufacture “Science” (to create the impression there is credibility to their claims) e.g. “DOE report about 20% wind power in 2030.” ------------------------------------------------------------------ Our Defense: Critical Thinking. After you check it out you’ll recall that we don’t want studies by scientists, but rather scientific studies (this “DOE” document is nothing more than AWEA propaganda). © john droz, jr. *
  • * An Explanation of the Prior “Manufactured Science” Slide (some of the words given at the live presentation) The very essence of science is under a frontal assault by these profiteers, who realize that their scheme needs the appearance of scientific support. Since it isn’t there legitimately, they simply make it up. The key ingredient of their campaign is a disavowal of the scientific method and a substitution of “scientific consensus.” Consensus science does not simply refer to a theory which has the endorsement of the majority of scientists (e.g. the sun is the center of the solar system), but rather to a theory in which the consensus of scientists is given as the primary evidence of the argument. [Of course no legitimate poll has ever been taken of all qualified scientists, so even the idea of a consensus is speculative. In any case, science is never determined by a vote.] [One who believes that a theory is supported by both: 1) scientific consensus and 2) conclusive empirical evidence, would not consider it "consensus science," because this would be the far inferior confirmation.] “I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels. It is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear ‘the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other,’ reach for your wallet, because you’re being had.” “Let’s be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. Consensus is irrelevant: what is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.” — Michael Crichton January 17, 2003: speech at the California Institute of Technology © john droz, jr. *
  • How Come? Note that the CONSENSUS of qualified scientists is that: 1) Nuclear fuel reprocessing is the best way to substantially reduce nuclear waste [every other country but the US does this], — and — 2) Yucca Mountain is a scientifically satisfactory solution to store the remaining nuclear waste. How come the same people who buy the Global Warming theory based on a supposed scientific consensus, don’t accept this real scientific consensus??? * © john droz, jr.
  • © john droz, jr. in the live presentation i then show the Repower America ad from “WeCanSolveIt.com”. In the live Q&A we go over how EVERYTHING in the ad is false or misleading. *
  • As a LONG TIME Environmental Advocate, I can say that this “environmentalism” has simply gotten out of control... © john droz, jr.
  • "A man is more likely to mind his own business when it is worth minding. When it is not, he takes his mind off his own meaningless affairs by minding other people's business." — Eric Hoffer © john droz, jr.
  • This is the logical next step for this scandalous situation... © john droz, jr.
  • Be very wary of Pied Piper Profiteer$ © john droz, jr.
  • The Wind Project Developer has ONE Objective: to squeeze the Town & the Leaseholders for EVERYTHING he can get out of them. © john droz, jr.
  • You can be 100% sure of one thing: he is not your partner, or your friend! © john droz, jr.
  • Remember What Your Dad Said: There’s No Free Lunch!
  • Don’t Take The Bait © john droz, jr.
  • ElectricalEnergy Science Informed Citizens © john droz, jr. {The message here is that we have two choices to solve our serious energy issues: #1-get educated and apply science...}
  • © john droz, jr. {or #2-...}
  • © john droz, jr. Relevant Carl Sagan Quotes To Ponder — 1 - We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology. 2 - I am often amazed at how much more capability and enthusiasm for science there is among elementary school youngsters than among college students. 3 - We have arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get away with it for a while, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces.
  • In short, I believe that — 1) we do have environmental and energy issues, and 2) these matters should be solved scientifically (that means using the Scientific Method). © john droz, jr.
  • © john droz, jr. Sound Scientific Solutions is the Umbrella position that covers ALL important concerns: ECONOMIC (e.g. taxpayer cost, ratepayer costs, agricultural impact, property values, net jobs, etc.) ENVIRONMENTAL (e.g. CO2 savings, noise, flicker, birds & bats, other health effects, raw material extraction and processing, etc.) TECHNICAL (e.g. reliability, dispatchability, transmission, grid limitations, military impact, etc.)
  • The Alternative Energy Plan (for those not inclined to accept a science-based energy policy) 1 - Have taxpayers who support wind check a box on their state tax return. (This will commit them to paying $1000 per family for the next 20 years.) 2 - Have ratepayers who support wind sign a contract with their utility company. (This will commit them to paying an extra 10¢/KWH for the next 20 years.) 3 - These monies would go into a statewide fund to pay for wind projects. (No other taxpayer or ratepayer money would be usable for wind projects.) 4 - Wind power projects could be located only in communities where over 50% of the taxpayers and ratepayers have made these commitments. © john droz, jr.
  • Mainly due to the fact that Wind Energy has bypassed a Scientific assessment... we are left with an electrical power supply that is High Cost and Low Benefit © john droz, jr.
  • © john droz, jr. Epilogue “When we are confronted with questions of science we often have neither the tenacity nor intellectual rigor to properly do our homework. In our ignorance and impatience, we have a habit of bestowing quasi-mystical properties on our own creations in much the same way as the faithful can be moved and inspired by majestic architecture or pious icons. Our instincts suggest that the moral correctness of the enterprise (plus the weight of our investments in hope and good intentions), must surely be sufficient to earn us a lasting reward. “The tempting conclusion is that we wouldn’t have gone so far down this path of canonization if the promised technology hadn’t produced verifiable good deeds. We take it as a given that somebody — our scientists, our politicians, our priests or our parents — has done the intellectual heavy lifting already. Alas, this is seldom the case, and definitely not so with wind energy. “In truth, in the realm of politics quite often expedience is the order of the day, and obfuscation, misdirection and white lies are the implementing tools. Continued...
  • © john droz, jr. Epilogue (cont…) “In a world currently focused on the gospel of green, it is perceived to be politically irresponsible to be circumspect, behind the curve, or simply not in the right pew. ‘We have to do something’ — or a variation ‘Every little bit helps’ has now become the mantra monotonously chanted by the choir. “The ‘something’ our preachers are promoting is for us to pay exorbitant premiums to people who have no more background in power production than does the altar boy. “The ‘little bit’ is actually more representative of the results. Does it make sense to fund an energy source whose primary reason for existence is to provide salvation from Global Warming — yet the cost of every pound of CO2 saved may be $1000? It’s akin to trying to heat the church with candles and incense. “Yet the procession marches relentlessly forward as we fill the developers’ coffers with unrequited subsidies, incentives and other indulgences, despite the fact that green energy solutions on the production side of the equation have been shown, the world over, to be pipe dreams, window dressings, and canards. Continued...
  • © john droz, jr. Epilogue (cont…) “In contributing to this illusion we will waste wealth, time and attention, diverting it away from more righteous solutions, and from programs like conservation and recycling — options that we know reduce our impact on the environment. “Instead, we will tithe our progeny’s future, building bigger more imposing industrial monuments and blindly putting our faith in the promises of shamans — despite all the empirical science to the contrary. We delude ourselves that good intentions plus the size, scope and cost of the effort is evidence enough of its merit. “In short we are being seduced by the splendor of the temple without taking the time to see the emptiness of the catechism. “Frankly, I’d rather just pray. It costs less, holds equal promise, and is not a blight on the landscape. “Amen.”
  • “THE HARDER THE CONFLICT THE MORE GLORIOUS THE VICTORY.” — Thomas Paine
  • © john droz, jr.
  • WindPowerFacts.Info Thank You! NOT! © john droz, jr.
  • Slide 8: Galileo quote - Galileo Scientific (www.quotationspage.com/quote/310.html) Slide 9: Critical Thinking - several sources, e.g. (www.criticalthinking.org/about/mission.cfm) Slide 10: GroupThink - several sources, e.g. (www.cedu.niu.edu/~fulmer/groupthink.htm) Slide 19: Scientific Methodology - several sources, e.g. (teacher.pas.rochester.edu/phy_labs/appendixe/appendixe.html) Slide 27: John Kenneth Galbraith - (www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/j/johnkennet125404.html) Slide 28: Ann Rice - (www.annerice.com/Bookshelf-VampireLestat.html) Slide 29: Cognitive Dissonance - (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance) Slide 38: Discussion of various capacities (www.peakoilandhumanity.com/Further_reading_folder/why_wind_wont_work.htm) Slide 40: Fuel Sources - DOE/EIA Report: Table 7d (tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/STEO_Query/steotables.cfm) Slide 44: AGW vs Climate Change (www.epa.gov/climatechange/basicinfo.html) Slide 46: US Highway death statistics (www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx) Slide 52: Land use comparison - several sources, e.g. Ausubel (phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/appeaausubel12april.pdf) Slide 53: Reliability - several sources, e.g. (ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v36y2008i8p3202-3215.html) Slide 54: EonNetz: daily production (12/17/08) - (tinyurl.com/9zcl4x) Slide 54: EonNetz: wind energy weekly output for a Year (tinyurl.com/9b7qbg) Slide 55: Ontario Wind Output for sample month (www.northnet.org/brvmug/WindPower/EPReview.pdf) Slides 56 & 69: BPA Live Data (www.transmission.bpa.gov/business/operations/Wind/baltwg.aspx) Slide 61: Smart Grid (www.ceage.vt.edu/ceage_presentations?q=node/289) Slide 62: National Grid article (wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/04/the-empire-strikes-out/) Slide 70: Claim of interconnected wind projects (www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/winds/aj07_jamc.pdf) Slide 71: Southeast Australia wind projects (ramblingsdc.net/Australia/WindSA.html#Operating_SA_wind_farms-Graph) Slide 73: Wind Capacity factor vs Demand (windfarmperformance.info/documents/analysis/monthly/aemo_wind_201005_hhour.pdf) Slide 78 Transmission Lines (www.powermag.com/issues/cover_stories/168_p3.html) & (nytimes.com/2009/03/07/opinion/07bowles.html?_r=1) Slide 78: EMFs - several sources, e.g. (infoventures.com/emf/federal/dot/wh-pap95.html) Slide 78: Outsmarting the Smart Grid (theenergycollective.com/williamtucker/34113/outsmarting-smart-grid) Slide 81: Power Sources Total Cost (www.northnet.org/brvmug/WindPower/EIA2016LevelizedCosts.doc) Slide 83: Federal Subsidies - EIA 2007 Report (table 35) (www.eia.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/subsidy2/pdf/chap5.pdf) Slide 84 & 85: Federal Subsidies - EIA 2010 Report (www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/subsidy/) Slide 86 & 87: State Wind Energy Subsidies, etc. (www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=1837) Slide 87: Developer Profit & Oil Company Tax Shelter (PDF) (www.fastcompany.com/node/849689/print) & (tinyurl.com/alfm8x) Slides 89 & 90: IEA 2007 World Energy Statistics (tinyurl.com/bwx9pl) + data sent from IEA — continued — References (for main data, quotes, etc.) — © john droz, jr.
  • Slide 91: CIA World Factbook 2007 (www.gelib.com/cia-factbook.htm) Slide 92: NAS Wind Energy Study - 2007 (www.nap.edu/nap-cgi/report.cgi?record_id=11935&type=pdfxsum) Slide 92: EIA Congressional Report - 2002 (tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/service/sroiaf(2002)03.pdf) Slide 93: EIA Congressional Report - 2007 (tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/service/sroiaf(2007)03.pdf) Slide 93: Bentek Report discussion (www.masterresource.org/2010/05/wind-integration-realities-the-bentek-study-for-colorado-part-iii/) Slide 94: CO2/KWH for France (engineering.electrical-equipment.org/energy-efficiency-news/c02-emission-by-countries.html) Slide 95: CO2/KWH for Denmark (engineering.electrical-equipment.org/energy-efficiency-news/c02-emission-by-countries.html) Slide 96: Atmospheric concentration (www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/9-12/features/912_liftoff_atm.html) Slide 97: Global CO2 Sources - several sources, e.g. (tinyurl.com/m3zxs) & (tinyurl.com/gtp6z); CO2 Sinks (www.whrc.org/carbon/missingc.htm). Slide 98: UN’s projection for AGW costs (tinyurl.com/62easf6) Slide 100: Insects and CO2 (www.clepair.net/climate%20change.html) Slide 101: Worldwide CO2 Reductions since 1973 (www.umich.edu/~gs265/society/nuclear.htm) Slide 102: Cost of Cleaner Energy (www.theothersideonline.net/2010/10/whats-another-million/engish-version-grafik-der-spiegel-502009-seite-56-5/) Slide 103: US Historical Transportation Mileage - DOT (www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/summary95/vm201.pdf) Slide 103: US Historical Electricity Usage - EIA (www.eia.doe.gov/aer/pdf/pages/sec8_5.pdf) Slide 104-106: Global & US Past CO2 Emissions - CDIAC (cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html) Slide 104-106: Hansen Predictions about CO2 - (www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/) Slide 104-106: Global & US Projected CO2 Emissions - EIA (www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/emissions.html) Slide 107: Dr. James Hansen quote (www.grist.org/article/parting-company-with-mckibben-and-maybe-hansen) Slide 109: US portion of world GDP (mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/11/us-share-of-world-gdp-remarkably.html) Slide 109: US rank in world food production (tinyurl.com/3j867qk) Slide 109: For example, see EIA data (www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/flash/flash.html); www.factsonfuel.org/gasoline/index.html) Slide 112: Greenhouse Gas percentages (www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html) Slide 113: NOAA re Greenhouse Gases (lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/gases.html#wv); Woods Hole re carbon sinks (tinyurl.com/286emcq). Slide 114: Greenhouse Gases: man-made (www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html) Slide 115: Capacity Values - several sources, e.g. (tinyurl.com/847x9k) Slide 117: Wind Energy cost - several sources, e.g. (tinyurl.com/9lyukv) Slide 119-125: How much is a Trillion (www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html) Slide 135: States with RPS (apps1.eere.energy.gov/states/maps/renewable_portfolio_states.cfm) Slide 136±: RPS critique (www.eba-net.org/docs/elj291/national_renewable_portfolio_standard.pdf) Slide 140-143: Summit Report (www.nyserda.org/Energy_Information/Market%20Conditions%20Final%20Report.pdf) — continued — References (for main data, quotes, etc.) — © john droz, jr.
  • Slide 145: Nuclear as Renewable (www.nei.org/howitworks/nuclearpowerplantfuel/) & (www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/cohen.html) Slide 146: Rare Earth elements in a Turbine (www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72102?oid=83419&sn=Detail) Slide 148: Is Wind Energy Renewable? (www.newscientist.com/article/mg21028063.300-wind-and-wave-energies-are-not-renewable-after-all.html) Slide 160 & 161: MIT Geothermal Report (web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2007/geothermal.html) Slide 163: Open letter to Congress (www.ntu.org/main/letters_detail.php?letter_id=538) Slide 163: American Society of Physicists (APS) - Future Energy Report (aps.org/energyefficiencyreport/index.cfm) Slide 164: Dr. Charles Wyman "Energy Use and Options for a Sustainable Future" (1/07/09) Slides 165 & 166: Tom Casten/RED (www.chpcenterpr.org/wasteheat2power07/PDF/TCasten%20presentation.pdf) Slide 168: Mini-nuclear - several sources, e.g. (www.hyperionpowergeneration.com/); (www.nuscalepower.com/) Slide 169: Trezium motors - Thor Power (www.thor-power.com/technique/trezium-system/) Slide 170: Discussion of Exergy (tinyurl.com/96vbl2) Slide 171: Liquid Floride Thorium Reactor - LFTR (www.energyfromthorium.com/) Slide 171 High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors - HTGR (nextbigfuture.com/2008/06/worlds-first-commercial-high.html) Slide 171: HydroThermal (www.marshallsystem.com/index.htm) Slide 171: Magnetic Power (www.magneticpowerinc.com/summary.html) Slide 175: Religious zealotry (www.helium.com/items/1791794-going-green-should-be-a-moral-imperitive) Slide 176: Social Marketing - several sources, e.g. (www.social-marketing.org/sm.html) Slide 177: Greenwashing - several sources, e.g. (www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Greenwashing) Slide 178: CO2 of Turbine base - data based calculation, e.g. (www.p2pays.org/ref/22/21845.pdf) & (http://tinyurl.com/cpp33t) Slide 179: Wind energy reduces our dependence on foreign oil (ecocompass.com/blog/?p=287) Slide 185: Nuclear Power and Terrorism - Science Magazine (tinyurl.com/7awpfn) Slide 186-188: Transporting Nuclear waste (cqresearcherblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/is-transporting-radioactive-waste.html) Slide 188: Which item gives off more radioactivity (www.physics.isu.edu/radinf/natural.htm) Slide 189: Wind is an energy resource (adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010PhDT.......100D) Slide 190: Manufactured Science - DOE + AWEA = DOA (www.northnet.org/brvmug/WindPower/DOECritique.pdf) Slide 191: Crichton speech on Consensus Science (aristotlethegeek.wordpress.com/2008/09/12/crichton-on-consensus-science/) Slide 195: Eric Hoffer quote (townhall.com/columnists/thomassowell/2003/06/18/the_legacy_of_eric_hoffer) Slide 204: Carl Sagan quotes (www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/c/carl_sagan.html) Slides 209-211: Modification of Gord McDonald’s letter to the editor (wellingtontimes.ca/?p=1025) Misc Slides: Thomas Paine quotes (www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/t/thomas_paine.html) Other unattributed observations are the result of private research. — continued — References (for main data, quotes, etc.) — © john droz, jr.
  • Slide 1: Philip Epp painting - Wild Horses (www.kgs.ku.edu/Publications/OFR/2006/OFR06_11/index.html) Slide 6: Scientist drawing - GlobalMoxie (globalmoxie.com/index.shtml) Slide 8: Galileo picture - Galileo Scientific (www.galileoscientific.com) Slide 9: Rodin “The Thinker” - (upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d2/The_Thinker_Musee_Rodin.jpg) Slide 10: Josh Neuman painting - Lemmings (www.SurrealArt.com) Slide 19: Science Lab - (teacherweb.craven.k12.nc.us/TPE/specials/images/7A6FFA731C634321AE6594D79F5B9D2F.jpg) Slide 22: Mega Signs painting - Mike Ringer (www.michaelringer.com/) Slides 25 & 26: Field and Believe slides - “Lebensweisheiten” PowerPoint slides Slide 29: UFO - (www.calvinbeck.com/pictures/ufo.jpg) Slide 36: Edison Utility photo - Open Learn (openlearn.open.ac.uk/mod/resource/view.php?id=209153) Slide 42: Magnifying Glass - Keynote Jam (www.jumsoft.com/jam/) Slide 43: Continent Clouds - (fennerschool.anu.edu.au/studying/postgrad/environment/fenner_clouds.jpg) Slide 44: Tornado - (tinyurl.com/87s9sgg) Slide 45: NYS Interstate 87 - (www.interstate-guide.com/images501/i-587_ny_wt_10.jpg) Slide 52: Nuclear Power photo - Diablo Canyon (www.zimfamilycockers.com/DiabloCanyon.html) Slide 58: Windmobile photo - (www.camdev.org/images/Wind%20Pix/P5010046.jpg) Slide 72: Castle Rock Wind project (farm1.static.flickr.com/106/292805607_f96b0d0fca.jpg) Slide 77: Transmission Towers photo - VNF (www.vnf.com/assets/htmlimages/Electric_transmission_lines.resize.jpg) Slide 126-129: Blackboard - (www.koolman.com/images/blackboard.jpg) Slide 133: Wind Turbines in perspective photo - (www.ckwag.org/photos/issues/TurbineSize.jpg) Slide 161: How Geothermal Works - REUK (www.reuk.co.uk/OtherImages/geothermalIllust.gif) Slide 161: Sample Geothermal Utility - NREL (www.sdrafvc.org/IMAGES/photos/geothermal.jpg) Slide 168: Mini-Nuclear - Hyperion (www.hyperionpowergeneration.com/) Slide 172: Stick Figure w Question Mark - (www.dailygalaxy.com/photos/uncategorized/shutterstock_2057058.jpg) Slide 181: House Fire - (www.ihs.gov/MedicalPrograms/PortlandInjury/otherimages/indexpic/flash/HouseFire_2.jpg) Slide 181: Bottled Water - (www.healthline.com/blogs/diet_nutrition/uploaded_images/bottled-water-760612.jpg) Slide 182: Global Warming Globe - (globalwarmingcause.files.wordpress.com/2007/12/fire_globe.jpg) Slides 186 & 187: Crash Tests - Sandia Labs (Sandia.Gov/TP/Safe_Ram/Severity.htm) — continued — © john droz, jr. Credits (for graphics, photos & videos) —
  • Slide 193: Theater - (oygirl.files.wordpress.com/2007/03/movie-theater.jpg) Slide 196: “Save the Planet” (flickr.com/photos/ mrssloop/1176944724/) Slide 200: “He Has Your Wallet” (www.floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/he-has-your-wallet.jpg) Slide 202: Triangle - (ocw.mit.edu/NR/rdonlyres/A166EB14-E7FD-473F-98FB-741A9817540C/0/chp_triangle.jpg) Slide 202: Sun - (www.swpc.noaa.gov/primer/primer_graphics/Sun.png) Slide 203: Three Monkees - (johnfenzel.typepad.com/john_fenzels_blog/images/2007/03/14/the3monkeys.jpg) John Terry cartoons (www.windtoons.com/) [my ideas]: Slides #78, #117, #133, #197, #213. Stock Photos: Slides #7, #20 & 21, #50, #60, #94, #136, #140, #149-151, #158, #159, #177, and #214. Other unidentified graphics & photos are mine. Credits (for graphics, photos & videos) — © john droz, jr.
  • John Droz, jr. is a physicist and has been an environmental activist for over 30 years. He has been a leading individual on four NY statewide issues (electrical energy, water extraction, water quality, and property taxes) and is also working on NC issues (like electrical energy and sea level rise). He received undergraduate degrees in physics and mathematics from Boston College, and a graduate degree in physics from Syracuse University. He has been a participating member of several environmental organizations (like the Adirondack Council, Adirondack Wild, Protect, and Sierra Club). [The science oriented views expressed in this presentation may not necessarily reflect the political agenda of these organizations.] Due to his love of nature, he has a Summer lakefront cottage in the Adirondacks (NY). These areas of interest and expertise (science & environmentalism) have merged with his focus on energy matters, especially wind energy. John’s basic position is that we should be taking aggressive measures to solve our energy and pollution issues, but should not be wasting time and money on illusionary solutions — which are primarily promoted by those with vested financial interests in them. This slide presentation is copyrighted and is for personal use only. Any reproduction, quoting, referencing, or other use of this material is prohibited without the author’s express written consent. Such consent will usually be granted for the purpose of putting on an educational community presentation. Substantial time and effort was exerted to ascertain the veracity of the material in this presentation. As such, all information is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. If errors are noted, please email John the scientific evidence of same and a correction will be made. For questions, comments or permission to use any material in this presentation, please email John at: aaprjohn@northnet.org © john droz, jr.