Rising food prices and implications for information needs<br />Nicholas Minot (IFPRI)<br />Presented at the seminar<br />“...
Rising food prices on international markets<br />
Food prices in Ugandan markets: mixed trends<br />Matoka prices rising & higher than usual<br />Maize price rising but nor...
Food security – Definition <br />“Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to...
Food security - Conceptual framework<br />Labor, mgt<br />Land<br />Inputs<br />Weather<br />Population<br />Preferences<b...
Food security - Policy instruments<br />Research & extension<br />Research, irrigation,mkt info<br />Family planning<br />...
Food security – Sources of instability<br />Weather-related supply shocks<br />Price shocks from world markets<br />
Food security – Types of information needs<br />Monitoring of food security indicators<br />Analysis and interpretation of...
1. Monitoring food security indicators<br />Food security indicators (“boxes” in conceptual framework)<br />Issues in moni...
1. Monitoring food security indicators<br />Daily or weekly monitoring<br />Domestic and international food prices<br />We...
2. Analysis & interpretation of indicators<br />Why is analysis and interpretation important?<br />Policy response depends...
2. Analysis & interpretation of indicators<br />Why is analysis and interpretation important?<br />Policy response depends...
3. Relationship among food security indicators<br />Relationships among indicators (black arrows in the conceptual framewo...
3. Relationship among food security indicators<br />Sometimes findings go against conventional wisdom (CW)<br />CW:  “Worl...
4) Impact of food & nutrition policies & programs<br />Impact of policy & programs (blue arrows in the conceptual framewor...
Conclusions<br />Food security conceptual framework helps identify information needs<br />Data collection affected by cost...
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Rising food prices and implications for information needs

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Rising food prices and implications for information needs

  1. 1. Rising food prices and implications for information needs<br />Nicholas Minot (IFPRI)<br />Presented at the seminar<br />“Food security information systems”<br />31 January 2011 <br />Imperial Royale Hotel, Kampala<br />
  2. 2. Rising food prices on international markets<br />
  3. 3. Food prices in Ugandan markets: mixed trends<br />Matoka prices rising & higher than usual<br />Maize price rising but normal (as of November)<br />Cassava price stable and normal (as of November)<br />Source: FEWS-NET, 2011.<br />
  4. 4. Food security – Definition <br />“Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”.<br />Source: World Food Summit Plan of Action, Rome, 1996<br />
  5. 5. Food security - Conceptual framework<br />Labor, mgt<br />Land<br />Inputs<br />Weather<br />Population<br />Preferences<br />Income<br />Food production<br />Food demand<br />International markets & trade<br />Infrastructure and market efficiency<br />Food prices<br />Farm income<br />Purchasing power of consumers<br />Health<br />Food intake<br />Food utilization<br />Sanitation<br />Care practices & nutrition education<br />Nutrition status<br />
  6. 6. Food security - Policy instruments<br />Research & extension<br />Research, irrigation,mkt info<br />Family planning<br />Safety nets<br />Land policy<br />Roads, competition policy<br />Trade policy<br />Health, sanitation, & educ. spending<br />Food aid <br />Nutrition assistance<br />
  7. 7. Food security – Sources of instability<br />Weather-related supply shocks<br />Price shocks from world markets<br />
  8. 8. Food security – Types of information needs<br />Monitoring of food security indicators<br />Analysis and interpretation of food security indicators<br />Relationships among food security indicators<br />Impact of food & nutrition policy and programmes<br />
  9. 9. 1. Monitoring food security indicators<br />Food security indicators (“boxes” in conceptual framework)<br />Issues in monitoring<br />How frequent to monitor them?<br />How many commodities to cover?<br />How many locations to cover?<br />What level of accuracy to seek given trade-off of cost & accuracy<br />Decisions are often based on:<br />Importance of indicator as a measure of food security <br />Cost of collecting data<br />
  10. 10. 1. Monitoring food security indicators<br />Daily or weekly monitoring<br />Domestic and international food prices<br />Weather<br />Monthly monitoring<br />International trade<br />Semi-annual or annual<br />Food and agricultural production<br />Use of fertilizer and other inputs<br />Every 5-10 years<br />Food consumption, expenditure, and income<br />Nutrition status at national level<br />Population<br />
  11. 11. 2. Analysis & interpretation of indicators<br />Why is analysis and interpretation important?<br />Policy response depends on cause of the problem<br />Not enough to know the trend, must understand causes behind it<br />Example: Rising grain prices in Ethiopia 2006-08<br />Alternative hypotheses:<br />Part of inflationary trend<br />Rural households consuming more grain<br />Rural households storing more grain<br />Traders hoarding grain to drive up price<br />New safety net programme increasing demand for grain<br />Increase in cross-border exports of grain<br />Shortfall in production <br />Study methods<br />Farm survey, trader survey, cross-border trade study, ag sector model<br />
  12. 12. 2. Analysis & interpretation of indicators<br />Why is analysis and interpretation important?<br />Policy response depends on cause of the problem<br />Not enough to know the trend, must understand causes behind it<br />Example: Rising grain prices in Ethiopia 2006-08<br />Alternative hypotheses: Findings:<br />Part of inflationary trend Contributing factor<br />Rural households consuming more grain No evidence<br />Rural households storing more grain No evidence<br />Traders hoarding grain to drive up price No evidence<br />New safety net programme increasing demand for grain Too small to affect<br />Increase in cross-border exports of grain Too small to affect<br />Shortfall in production Contributing factor<br />Study determined that causes were:<br />Inflationary trend and shortfall in production<br />
  13. 13. 3. Relationship among food security indicators<br />Relationships among indicators (black arrows in the conceptual framework)<br />Examples: <br />What is the effect of changes in world maize prices on domestic maize prices?<br />If rains are 30% less than usual, how will this affect the rice output? <br />What is the effect of higher cassava prices on domestic production? <br />If matoke prices rise 50%, what will be the effect on food consumption and nutrition among different types of households?<br />Methods<br />Usually requires good data and statistical analysis<br />Example 1: Analysis of effect of world markets on domestic food prices requires 5-10 years of monthly data and time-series econometrics analysis<br />Example 2: Analysis of the effect of price changes on different types of households requires data from a national household income-expenditure survey<br />
  14. 14. 3. Relationship among food security indicators<br />Sometimes findings go against conventional wisdom (CW)<br />CW: “World markets affect African food prices” <br />Data: Monthly data on world grain prices & 62 African food prices <br />Method: Error-correction model<br />Results: <br />Only 13 of 62 prices linked to world markets of same commodity<br />About half of rice prices linked to international markets<br />Only 10% of maize prices linked to international markets<br />Explanation: Most African countries are almost self-sufficient in maize but much of rice comes from world markets<br />CW: “Farmers benefit from higher grain prices” <br />Data: Household survey data from numerous African countries<br />Method: Simulate impact of price change on rural households<br />Results: <br />40-60% of households are net buyers of grain & lose from higher prices <br />Benefits concentrated among larger farmers<br />
  15. 15. 4) Impact of food & nutrition policies & programs<br />Impact of policy & programs (blue arrows in the conceptual framework)<br />Examples: <br />What is the effect of the current import tariff on maize? <br />What is the effect WFP purchases of Ugandan maize?<br />What is the effect of school feeding programs in Uganda?<br />Methods<br />Good: Analysis of data from one household survey<br />Can establish correlation but not causation<br />Better: Analysis of panel data (2+ surveys covering same households)<br />Gives strong indication of causation, but selection bias: participants in programme may be different than non-participants. <br />Best: Randomized control trials<br />Randomization ensures similarity of programme participants and non-participants so outcomes can be compared<br />
  16. 16. Conclusions<br />Food security conceptual framework helps identify information needs<br />Data collection affected by cost of collecting indicators<br />Four types of food security information<br />Food security indicators<br />Analysis and interpretation of indicators<br />Relationship among indicators<br />Impact of food & nutrition policies on indicators<br />Trade-off between accuracy and cost<br />Information needs depend on policy issues facing government<br />

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