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Smartphones were pressed into 
bacteriological growth media. 
“We didn’t have to wait long…” 
University of Surrey, 2014.
Supertyphoon Haiyan 
08 November 2013 
196 mph at landfall 
11 million affected 
27,400 injured 
1,700 missing 
6,000 dead
Things Not Digital 
in Global Public Health
Demographics
As of 2007, 
we’re more 
urban than 
rural for the 
first time in 
human history. 
About a billion 
of us live in 
slums like this. 
Islamabad 
Image: National Geographic
95% of the increase in population by 2050 will be 
in the cities of the developing world. 
UN Habitat-2010 
~9.31 Billion 
in 2050
William Gibson’s “uneven distribution” 
Caracas, Venezuela 
Image: CDKN.org
Megacity 
Growth 
Doubling time: 
0.2% = 350 years 
0.6% = 116 years 
1.5% = 47 years 
2.5% = 28 years 
4.0% = 18 years 
5.0% = 14 years 
✔ 
✔ 
✔ 
✔ 
✔ 
✔ 
✔ 
✔ 
✔ 
✔ 
✔ 
✔ 
✔ = developing 
world
Infant mortality 
per 1,000 live births 
Best Worst 
For reference, 
The US infant mortality 
rate is 5.20. 
We rank 47th, between 
Greece and New Caledonia 
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
But efforts like the Millennium Development Goals 
have shown what’s possible with infant mortality: 
> = mortality dropped by roughly half 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>> 
> 
= war variance
In the 
United States, 
stunning 
achievements 
in public health 
and civic 
responsibility
Disasters: 
Fast and Slow
Just over the past 48 months… 
• Sendai earthquake and tsunami 
• Fukushima nuclear disaster 
• Christchurch earthquake 
• Supertyphoon Haiyan 
• US tornado swarms 
• Russian wheat fires 
• Russian heat wave 
• Queensland floods 
• Hurricane Sandy 
• Pakistan floods
Nine Planetary Boundaries 
Planetary boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2):32, 2009
About 25% of global agriculture is grown in water-stressed areas 
World Resources Institute – May 2014 
http://www.wri.org/applications/maps/agriculturemap/#x=142.03&y=12.23&l=2&v=home&d=gmia
About 
15.4 
million 
all-cause 
refugees 
globally.
Just in syndromic surveillance 
alone, ISDS predicts in 2030 
we’ll be about 4 million 
healthcare workers short. 
Not like you. Like her.
Not such good news elsewhere… 
Seem to be new Very different / Don’t belong 
• HIV 
• SARS 
• West Nile 
• Hantavirus 
• H5N1 Avian 
• H1N1 Swine 
• MERS 
• Lassa fever 
• Nipah 
• Ebola and Marburg 
• Legionnaires 
• Hendra 
• Enterovirus 71 
• Cyclosporiasis 
• Human Monkeypox 
• Malaria (DR) 
• Diphtheria 
• Dengue 
• Tuberculosis (MDR, XDR, TDR) 
• Chikungunya 
• Cholera 
• Plague 
• Rift Valley Fever 
• Typhoid Fever 
• Resistance… 
– MRSA 
– VRSA 
– NDM-1 
• Zoonoses (75%...) 
• Agricultural and Livestock pathogens
24 
Of more than 30 “new” infectious 
diseases since 1970, about 75% 
have been zoonotic
Point of Care 
diagnostics? 
• Language 
• Culture 
• Experience 
• Cosmology 
• Myth 
Turkana…refugees? 
Northern Kenya, 2012
26 
Bad water, food, medical care…persistent struggle. 
Image: Crystal Davis, WRI
27 
Dhaka, Bangladesh: 
On any given day 1/3 of the population is sick. 
Grameen Kalyan, 2013 
Image: InSTEDD
28 
Hard-working, ambitious, and eager to learn 
Image: Eric Rasmussen
But without a functioning State… 
Janjaweed raid, Darfur, 2009 
Photo: Reuters
30 
Dadaab Refugee Camp, eastern Kenya, 2013
Natural disasters 
Industrial disasters 
Climate change 
Conflict 
Trafficking 
Religious extremism 
Economic recession 
Post-colonial disintegration 
Demographic migration 
Poverty / Brain Drain 
Emerging infections 
Compound Crises
Ecosystem 
Services 
Energy 
Security 
Food 
Security 
Humanitarian 
Assistance and 
Disaster Relief 
National 
Recovery and 
Reconstruction 
Water 
Security 
Disaster 
Risk 
Reduction 
Political 
Stability 
Hazard 
Preparedness 
Infrastructure 
Security 
and 
Response 
Transportation 
Security 
Job 
creation 
Public 
Health 
Communications 
Security 
Capacity 
Building 
Emerging 
Disease 
Detection 
Economic 
Resilience 
Human 
Security 
32
Data 
for 
Decisions
Crowd-sourced data – 
open and free, 
to pretty rigorous standards
WWHGD.org 
Data Preparedness 
for 
Human Security 
Human Security Taxonomy ANTz 
Image: MindTel 
ANTz – Village health resources
UN effort 
Big Data. Huge. 
For knee-of-the-curve 
warning of: 
• Emerging infections 
• Developing famine 
• Economic disruption 
• Social unrest
11 May 2014
Food and 
Water
Aquaponics 
10% of the water. 
8x yield / unit area / time.
Water
Fresh water 
reclamation 
seems a 
desirable goal 
Photos by Lorenzo Moscia 
National Geographic
Puralytics.com
Puralytics Shield 
• 500 gallons per day 
• 24 inches high, and 60 pounds 
• LED-driven photocatalytic reactions 
• Nanomembrane flow system 
• 570 watts 
• Replaceable cartridge 
• Zero water waste 
• Routine maintenance annually
First water production in the field 
11 May 2014
Things we can’t do well yet 
in low-resource environments… 
• Communicate between languages and cultures 
• Analyze water 
• Clean water 
• Diagnose viral diseases 
• Provide diagnostic tools to CHWs 
• Evaluate medication legitimacy 
• Predict zoonotic transmission risk 
• Provide power 
• Determine medication delivery 
• Manage cold-chains 
• Educate women
Take-Home messages: 
• Human security is a desirable goal. 
• Health is one security component, 
driven by foundational needs. 
• Exploring those mathematically 
inarguable needs is good business. 
• It’s a market full of science, 
engineering, art and design. 
• It’s also a market of systems: 
interesting, profitable, and fair.
Eric Rasmussen, MD, MDM, FACP 
RasmussenE @ ihs-i.com 
360-621-3592

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The Future of Global Health

  • 1.
  • 2. Smartphones were pressed into bacteriological growth media. “We didn’t have to wait long…” University of Surrey, 2014.
  • 3.
  • 4. Supertyphoon Haiyan 08 November 2013 196 mph at landfall 11 million affected 27,400 injured 1,700 missing 6,000 dead
  • 5. Things Not Digital in Global Public Health
  • 7.
  • 8. As of 2007, we’re more urban than rural for the first time in human history. About a billion of us live in slums like this. Islamabad Image: National Geographic
  • 9. 95% of the increase in population by 2050 will be in the cities of the developing world. UN Habitat-2010 ~9.31 Billion in 2050
  • 10. William Gibson’s “uneven distribution” Caracas, Venezuela Image: CDKN.org
  • 11. Megacity Growth Doubling time: 0.2% = 350 years 0.6% = 116 years 1.5% = 47 years 2.5% = 28 years 4.0% = 18 years 5.0% = 14 years ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ = developing world
  • 12. Infant mortality per 1,000 live births Best Worst For reference, The US infant mortality rate is 5.20. We rank 47th, between Greece and New Caledonia https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
  • 13. But efforts like the Millennium Development Goals have shown what’s possible with infant mortality: > = mortality dropped by roughly half > > > > >> > = war variance
  • 14. In the United States, stunning achievements in public health and civic responsibility
  • 16. Just over the past 48 months… • Sendai earthquake and tsunami • Fukushima nuclear disaster • Christchurch earthquake • Supertyphoon Haiyan • US tornado swarms • Russian wheat fires • Russian heat wave • Queensland floods • Hurricane Sandy • Pakistan floods
  • 17. Nine Planetary Boundaries Planetary boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2):32, 2009
  • 18.
  • 19. About 25% of global agriculture is grown in water-stressed areas World Resources Institute – May 2014 http://www.wri.org/applications/maps/agriculturemap/#x=142.03&y=12.23&l=2&v=home&d=gmia
  • 20. About 15.4 million all-cause refugees globally.
  • 21. Just in syndromic surveillance alone, ISDS predicts in 2030 we’ll be about 4 million healthcare workers short. Not like you. Like her.
  • 22.
  • 23. Not such good news elsewhere… Seem to be new Very different / Don’t belong • HIV • SARS • West Nile • Hantavirus • H5N1 Avian • H1N1 Swine • MERS • Lassa fever • Nipah • Ebola and Marburg • Legionnaires • Hendra • Enterovirus 71 • Cyclosporiasis • Human Monkeypox • Malaria (DR) • Diphtheria • Dengue • Tuberculosis (MDR, XDR, TDR) • Chikungunya • Cholera • Plague • Rift Valley Fever • Typhoid Fever • Resistance… – MRSA – VRSA – NDM-1 • Zoonoses (75%...) • Agricultural and Livestock pathogens
  • 24. 24 Of more than 30 “new” infectious diseases since 1970, about 75% have been zoonotic
  • 25. Point of Care diagnostics? • Language • Culture • Experience • Cosmology • Myth Turkana…refugees? Northern Kenya, 2012
  • 26. 26 Bad water, food, medical care…persistent struggle. Image: Crystal Davis, WRI
  • 27. 27 Dhaka, Bangladesh: On any given day 1/3 of the population is sick. Grameen Kalyan, 2013 Image: InSTEDD
  • 28. 28 Hard-working, ambitious, and eager to learn Image: Eric Rasmussen
  • 29. But without a functioning State… Janjaweed raid, Darfur, 2009 Photo: Reuters
  • 30. 30 Dadaab Refugee Camp, eastern Kenya, 2013
  • 31. Natural disasters Industrial disasters Climate change Conflict Trafficking Religious extremism Economic recession Post-colonial disintegration Demographic migration Poverty / Brain Drain Emerging infections Compound Crises
  • 32. Ecosystem Services Energy Security Food Security Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief National Recovery and Reconstruction Water Security Disaster Risk Reduction Political Stability Hazard Preparedness Infrastructure Security and Response Transportation Security Job creation Public Health Communications Security Capacity Building Emerging Disease Detection Economic Resilience Human Security 32
  • 34. Crowd-sourced data – open and free, to pretty rigorous standards
  • 35. WWHGD.org Data Preparedness for Human Security Human Security Taxonomy ANTz Image: MindTel ANTz – Village health resources
  • 36.
  • 37. UN effort Big Data. Huge. For knee-of-the-curve warning of: • Emerging infections • Developing famine • Economic disruption • Social unrest
  • 40. Aquaponics 10% of the water. 8x yield / unit area / time.
  • 41. Water
  • 42. Fresh water reclamation seems a desirable goal Photos by Lorenzo Moscia National Geographic
  • 44. Puralytics Shield • 500 gallons per day • 24 inches high, and 60 pounds • LED-driven photocatalytic reactions • Nanomembrane flow system • 570 watts • Replaceable cartridge • Zero water waste • Routine maintenance annually
  • 45. First water production in the field 11 May 2014
  • 46. Things we can’t do well yet in low-resource environments… • Communicate between languages and cultures • Analyze water • Clean water • Diagnose viral diseases • Provide diagnostic tools to CHWs • Evaluate medication legitimacy • Predict zoonotic transmission risk • Provide power • Determine medication delivery • Manage cold-chains • Educate women
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50. Take-Home messages: • Human security is a desirable goal. • Health is one security component, driven by foundational needs. • Exploring those mathematically inarguable needs is good business. • It’s a market full of science, engineering, art and design. • It’s also a market of systems: interesting, profitable, and fair.
  • 51. Eric Rasmussen, MD, MDM, FACP RasmussenE @ ihs-i.com 360-621-3592