2010 Indonesia Outlook
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2010 Indonesia Outlook, Faisal basri

2010 Indonesia Outlook, Faisal basri

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2010 Indonesia Outlook Presentation Transcript

  • 1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010 Faisal Basri 15 November 2009
  • 2. Bagian I Perkembangan Ekonomi Dunia Terkini
  • 3. Summary Perekonomian dunia sudah menunjukkan recovery, lebih cepa da pe aa eco e y, eb cepat dari perkiraan sebelumnya, kecuali AS yang masih rentan. Tulang punggung pemulihan adalah Emerging Markets EM), kh M k t EM) khususnya EM A i lebih khusus EM-Asia, l bih kh lagi Asia Timur. Bahkan kawasan ini pulih sangat cepat dan mendahului negara-negara negara negara maju (fenomena baru). Perlu diwaspadai: p • Tekanan inflasi • Volatilitas nilai tukar. • K ik h Kenaikan harga-harga komoditi, t t h k diti terutama minyak, i k karena kenaikan real demand
  • 4. The world economy is facing a deep downturn in 2009 In the most severe recession since WW II, the global economy is projected to shrink by 1.1 percent in 2009, with slow (sluggish) recovery next year. Description Jul 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 World GDP growth, % 3.9 3.0 2.2 0.5 -0.8 -1.3 -1.4 -1.1 -United States 0.8 0.1 -0.7 -1.6 -2.6 -2.8 -2.6 -2.7 -Euro Area 1.2 0.2 -0.5 -2.0 -3.2 -4.2 -4.8 -4.2 -Japan 1.5 0.5 -0.2 -2.6 -5.8 -6.2 -6.0 -5.4 -Developing economies 6.7 6.1 5.1 3.3 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.7 -China 9.8 9.3 8.5 6.7 - 6.5 7.5 8.5 -Asean-5 5.6 5.5 4.5 2.7 - 0.0 -0.3 0.7 World trade growth, % 6.0 4.1 2.0 -2.8 - -11.0 -12.2 -11.9 Not available. It’s been a lousy year for forecasters Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues. all over the world.)
  • 5. Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb. Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) December 2009 5:14 p.m. EDT US$76.54 =   Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118 Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134 j y $ Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145 Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150 • Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.
  • 6. Oil prices and stock market = 10,270.47 Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
  • 7. Euro Zone: green shoots The two largest economies of the 16-country euro zone, Germany and France, grew in the second quarter after falling for four quarters. a g o ou qua e s Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/08/14/business/14euro_graphic_ready.html
  • 8. Business confidence is surging across EU and BRIC –FT, 10 August 2009, p.1 Business confidence is surging across European manufacturing, with the UK and Italy taking the lead. Optimism b t d ti trends back t O ti i about production t d iis b k at llevels l seen before the intensification of the global slowdown late last year and points to a clear growth year, in manufacturing activity by the middle of 2010. The Th so-called “B i ” countries – B il R i I di ll d “Bric” ti Brazil, Russia, India and China – have also seen a strong rebound in manufacturing confidence, man fact ring confidence ..
  • 9. Emerging Asia: an astonishing rebound an The four emerging Asian economies which have reported GDP figures for the second quarter (China Indonesia, (China, Indonesia South Korea and Singapore) grew by an average annualised rate of more than 10% th 10%. Source: From The Economist print edition, Aug 13th 2009. Hong Kong joins Asia’s rapid climb out of recession Hong Asia s recession. Kong’s economy grew by a seasonally adjusted 3.3 percent in the second quarter from the first quarter, more than analysts had expected, adding to evidence that the recovery was solidifying in t d ddi t id th t th lidif i i much of Asia, according to data published Friday. China, Singapore and South Korea have reported rebounds during h A il J d i the April-to-June period. i d Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/business/global/15asiaecon.html?ref=global-business.
  • 10. Change in value of exports (year-over-year) (year-over- Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/08/14/business/20090815_CHARTS_GRAPHIC.html
  • 11. U.S.: The case for optimism Why It's Smart To Be Optimistic Sure, it has been a harrowing storm. And now is no time to discount the dangers that still exist. But opening your mind to optimism can help you seize the opportunities ahead .... t iti h d http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/toc/09_34/B4144optimism.htm?chan=magazine+channel_top+stories
  • 12. U.S. economic contraction slowed in quarter Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/01/business/economy/01econ.html?_r=1&th&emc=th
  • 13. Deepening the pain: job losses pile up Job losses since the recession began in December 2007. Unemployment rateshot up to 10.2% in October 2009, a 26-year high. 0 ‐1000 ‐2000 ‐3000 ‐4000 ‐5000 ‐6000 Cumulative (000) ‐7000 Montly job losses  (000) ‐8000 8000 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S Source: U.S. Labor Department.
  • 14. U.S. consumer confidence index Indeks kepercayaan konsumen adalah salah k d l h l h satu leading economic indicator bagi perekonomian. S t l h k i Setelah mengalami penurunan pada bulan Juni dan Juli, J li consumer Confidence Index naik tajam pada bulan Agustus A t menjadi 54 1 j di 54.1 dari 47.4 sebulan sebelumnya. Source: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm
  • 15. Bagian II Perekonomian Indonesia k
  • 16. Summary Perekonomian Indonesia ternyata bisa bertahan dari deraan krisis global dengan pertumbuhan masih di atas 4 persen. Kekuatan utama adalah pasar domestik yang cukup besar. Pertumbuhan belum berkualitas, sektor tradable masih berkualitas merana. Perlu pembenahan kebijakan moneter dan kebijakan fiskal. Peluang terbuka lebar bagi FDI untuk imbangi modal jangka pendek.
  • 17. The transmission of stress Sources: IMF, April 2009.
  • 18. Sumber daya tahan Perekonomian Indonesia dan sektor keuangannya tak terkait erat dengan sektor finansial AS. Sektor perbankan sudah cukup terkonsolidasi. Indikator kesehatan perbankan (ROA, ROE, NIM, CAR) di atas rata-rata negara tetangga, bahkan beberapa terbaik. Current account masih surplus. Peranan ekspor di dalam PDB relatif kecil. Porsi ekspor Indonesia ke AS Eropa dan Jepang sudah AS, Eropa, menunjukkan penurunan; bergeser ke EM dan Asean. Ruang gerak untuk stimulus fiskal cukup leluasa. Harga minyak sempat turun ke level di bawah $ per barrel. $50 Ketahanan pangan terjaga (a.l: komponen makanan dalam CPI mengalami deflasi berturut-turut dalam 4 bulan terakhir). g ) Bonus: situasi politik yang memburuk di Thailand dan kurang kondusif di Malaysia; dan daya saing meningkat tajam.
  • 19. East Asia entered the current crisis better prepared than it did the 1997 crisis (in percent of GDP unless indicated otherwise) Source: The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Update, East Asia: Navigating the Perfect Storm, December 2008.
  • 20. Countries more dependent on exports will likely be more vulnerable to the slowdown Source: Asian Development Bank, The AsiIa Economic Monitor (AEM), July 2009, p. 5.
  • 21. Direction of trade: Asean and Indonesia Ingat: Peran Singapura !!! From Asean Indonesia To 2000 2007 2000 2007 Developing Asia 37,4 41,2 33,1 37,1 China 3,7 8,9 4,2 8,1 Japan 12,6 9,4 22,1 18,1 United States United States 18,2 18 2 12,2 12 2 13,0 13 0 9,4 94 European Union 14,4 11,1 13,7 10,0 Others 13,7 17,2 13,7 17,3 Sources: ADB, March 2009
  • 22. Ruang gerak stimulus fiskal WSJ, March 21, 2009 Stimulus Dilemma for China Spending on Public p g Works Risks Making Production Glut Worse http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123759537916001075.html Pertumbuhan ekonomi Singapura tahun 2009 terjun bebas Pemerintah “pasrah ” Stimulus bebas. pasrah. jangka pendek sangat terbatas, karena hampir tak ada ruang gerak untuk pembenahan i f b h infrastruktur fisik. Segalanya t kt fi ik S l sudah tersedia dengan kualitas prima.
  • 23. The World competitiveness scoreboard Country 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 USA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Singapore 4 2 3 3 2 2 3 Hong Kong 10 6 2 2 3 3 2 Switzerland 9 14 8 8 6 4 4 Australia 7 4 9 6 12 7 7 China 27 22 29 18 15 17 20 Taiwan 17 12 11 17 18 13 23 Malaysia 21 16 26 22 23 19 18 India 42 30 33 27 27 29 30 Korea K 32 31 27 32 29 31 27 Thailand 28 26 25 29 33 27 26 Philippines 41 43 40 42 45 40 43 Indonesia 49 49 50 52 54 51 42 Venezuela 51 51 51 53 55 55 57 Source: International Institute for Management Development, World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2009.
  • 24. Economic temperature cooler .. Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, % 18.4 18 16 14.6 14 percent t 12 10 8 6 4 4.6 46 2 2.6 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0 Source: BPS.
  • 25. BI Rate bertahan di 6.5 persen 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 90 8.0 7.0 6.0 Source: Bank Indonesia.
  • 26. BI rate turun tapi SBI naik terus Rp Trn persen 300 12 280 11 260 240 10 220 200 9 180 8 160 140 7 120 100 6 2007 2008 2009 SBI Outstanding (sumbu kiri) BI Rate (sumbu kanan) SBI 1-bulan (sumbu kanan)
  • 27. Pertumbuhan suplai uang relatif rendah YoY% 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -10 M2 M1 M0 -20
  • 28. Belanja pemerintah masih seret Rp Trn percent 250 14 Rekening Pem erintah di BI Inter Bank Rate 12 200 BI Rate 10 150 8 6 100 4 50 2 0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
  • 29. 9,500 9,000 8,500 12,500 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 8-Apr 22-Jul 15-Oct 12-Jan 11-Apr Jul-05 27-Sep 23-Dec 17-Mar 14-Jun 7-Sep 6-Dec 1-Mar 28-May 20-Aug (Rupiah per US$) 16-Nov 20-Feb 16-May 8-Aug 6-Nov Feb-05 Heart beat has been appreciating ... May-04 Jul-28 23-Oct Source: Bank Indonesia
  • 30. W 30000.00 35000.00 40000.00 45000 00 45000.00 50000.00 55000.00 60000.00 65000.00 1- J W a 2- F W e 3- M W a 4- A Source: Bank Indonesia. W p 1- Jn W 2- W Jl 3 W -Ag 4- S W ep 1- N W ov 2- D W ec 3- J W an 4- F W eb 1- A W pr 2- M W ay 3- Ju SBY era W n 4- W Jul 1- S W ep 2- O W ct 3- N W ov 4- D W ec 2- A 31 pr -A u 31 g -J (US$ million) 29 an -J 31 un -A ug 5- O 15 c t -N 19 ov -D e 31 c -J a 6- n M a 15 r -A 23 pr -M 30 ay -J u 7- n A 15 ug -S e 24 p -O Fe ct b- 2 Ju 7 l- 3 1 Foreign reserves increased more than $7 bil. bil.
  • 31. JSX index recovered significantly Business Week 14-21 Maret 2007 hal.18. Week, 2007, hal 18
  • 32. Balance of payments (US$ million) 2008 Q3‐08 Q4‐08 Q1‐09 Q2‐09 H1‐09 I.   CURRENT ACCOUNT 285 ‐891 ‐684 2,885  3,104 5,989 A. Goods, net (Trade Balance) A G d t (T d B l ) 22,916 22 916 5,771 5 771 4,166 4 166 6,969 6 969 8,705 8 705 15,674 15 674 1. Exports, f.o.b. 139,606 38,081 29,768 24,205 27,509 51,714 2. Imports, f.o.b. ‐116,690 ‐32,309 ‐25,603 ‐17,236 ‐18,805 36,041 B. Services, net B S i ‐12,745 12 745 ‐3,195 3 195 ‐3,288 3 288 ‐2,535 2 535 ‐3,097 3 097 ‐5,632 5 632 C. Income, net ‐15,271 ‐4,803 ‐2,879 ‐2,672 ‐3,714 6,386 D. Current Transfers, net 5,385 1,336 1,317 1,122 1,210 2,332 II.  CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT ‐1,354 904 ‐3,340 1,750 ‐2,414 ‐664 A. Capital Account 294 187 29 19 29 48 B. Financial Account ‐1,648 717 ‐3,368 1,731 ‐2,443 ‐712 1. Direct investment 2,799 404 2,061 1,660 9 1,669 2. Portfolio investment 1,721 ‐74 ‐ 4,377 1,859 2,003 3,862 3. Other investment ‐6,167 387 ‐1,052 ‐1,788 ‐4,455 ‐6,243 III. ERRORS & OMISSIONS ‐876 ‐103 ‐188  ‐680 362 ‐318 IV. RESERVES &RELATED ITEMS 1,945 89 4,212  ‐3,955 ‐1,052 ‐5,007 Source: Bank Indonesia.
  • 33. The role of FDI in Asia & South America, 2006 FDI flows to GFCF FDI stocks to GDP Country Percent Country Percent Venezuela -2.1 Indonesia 5.2 Bangladesh 3.9 India 5.7 Sri Lanka 6.2 Bangladesh 6.3 Indonesia 6.4 Sri Lanka 10.9 China 8.0 China 11.1 India 8.7 Pakistan 11.4 Argentina 9.6 Taiwan 14.2 Taiwan 10.3 Philippines 14.6 Brazil 10.5 Peru 20.7 Vietnam 12.5 Brazil 20.8 Philippines 14.1 Venezuela 25.0 Thailand 16.5 Argentina 27.4 Peru 18.9 Thailand 33.0 Bolivia 19.5 Malaysia 36.0 Malaysia 20.1 Ecuador 39.9 Pakistan 24.1 Cambodia 41.6 Ecuador 24.8 Bolivia 44.6 Chile 28.3 Vietnam 54.8 Cambodia 38.9 Chile 55.4 Singapore 79.5 Singapore S 159.0 1 90 Asia 12.9 Asia 24.9 South America 13.1 South America 26.0 Notes: FDI = Foreign Direct Investment (inward); GFCF = Gross Fixed Capital Formation; GDP = Gross Domestic Product. Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.
  • 34. Indonesia’s post-crisis journey post- Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, % 6.6 6.4 5.2 7 4.2 4.0 5 4 3 1 -1 -3 -5 -7 -9 Gus Dur: -11 “Erratic/shaky” -13 Megawati: -15 Consolidation and -17 acceleration -19 SBY: Throws away -21 21 Momentum, Momentum and then made correction Crisis peak Source: BPS.
  • 35. Low quality — Sectoral growth rate (2000 base year year-on-year growth rate %) year, year-on- rate, 2007 2008 Q1-09 Q2-09 H1-09 H1-Share Tradable T d bl 3.9 39 3.4 34 2.6 26 1.93 1 93 2.3 23 48.4 48 4 Agriculture 3.4 4.8 5.2 2.4 3.7 14.0 Mining & Q y g g Quarrying 2.0 0.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 8.2 Manufacturing 4.7 3.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 26.2 Non-Tradable 8.8 8.7 6.1 6.2 6.0 51.7 Electricity, Gas & Water 10.3 10.9 11.4 15.4 13.4 0.8 Construction 8.6 7.3 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.3 Trade, Hotel & Rest. 8.4 7.2 0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.2 16.6 Transport & Comm. 14.0 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.3 8.7 Finance 8.0 8.2 6.3 5.3 5.8 9.7 Services 6.6 6.4 6.8 7.4 7.1 9.6 GDP 6.3 6.1 4.4 4.0 4.2 100.0 Source: BPS.
  • 36. Low quality growth, 2000-2009* (%) 2000-2009* 10 Non-tradable 8 6 GDP 4 Tradable 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 * January-June. Source: BPS.
  • 37. GDP growth by expenditure (y-o-y, %) (y- 2009 Description 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 H1 H1‐Share Private consumption p 3,2 , 5,0 , 5,3 , 6,0 , 4,8 , 5,4 , 57,1 , Government consumption 9,6 3,9 10,4 19,2 17,0 18,0 7,1 Fixed investment Fixed investment 2,6 9,4 11,7 3,4 2,7 3,0 23,2 Domestic demand 3,6 6,0 7,4 6,2 5,3 5,8 87,5 Exports 9,4 94 8,5 85 9,5 18,7 15,7 17,2 9 5 ‐18 7 ‐15 7 ‐17 2 23,7 23 7 Imports 8,6 9,0 10,0 ‐26,0 ‐23,9 ‐24,9 20,6 GDP 5,5 55 6,3 63 6,1 61 4,4 44 4,0 40 4,2 42 100,0 100 0 Source: BPS..
  • 38. Otomotif dan sepeda motor mulai naik..
  • 39. Konsumsi semen naik ke level tertinggi
  • 40. Indonesia: foreign visitors arrivals Visitors: Growth: Jan-Sep 2008 = 4,570,492 Sep 2009 (m-t-m) = -12.88% Jan-Sep 2009 = 4,619,483 Jan-Jul 2009 (y-o-y) = 1.07% 700000 2008 2009 600000 500000 400000 00000 May Mar May Mar Oct Jan Jan Feb Feb Sep Sep Dec Jun Jun Nov Jul Jul Apr Apr Aug Aug Sources: BPS
  • 41. Indeks tendensi konsumen 110 100 90 Q3-09 is prediction. Source: BPS.
  • 42. Indeks tendensi bisnis 120 110 100 90 Q3-09 is prediction. Source: BPS.
  • 43. Bagian III Liingkungan Politik
  • 44. Decoupling between politics and economic activities? Jakarta International Java Jazz Festival, held on 6-8 March 2009. The festival's 19 stages featured more than 300 performances. There isn't a jazz festival larger than Java Jazz Festival in this part of the world. Approximately 1500 delegates from 35 countries attended the 5th World Islamic Economic Forum, iin Jakarta, 1 4 M h 2009 J k t 1-4 March 2009. The 42th Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the  Asian Development Bank will be held in Bali, 4‐5 May 2009.  The Seminar Series and other ancillary meetings will  commence from 2 May 2009. World Ocean Conference, to be held in Manado on May 11-14, 2009.
  • 45. Major bombings since 2002 Place Date Bali I October 12, 2002 JW Marriot August 5, 2003 Australian Embassy September 9, 2004 Bali II a Octobe , 005 October 1, 2005 Ritz Carlton & JW Marriot July 17, 2009
  • 46. The impact of bombings to the economy bombings IDR/US$ index, days after terror attacts 0 = day of bomb blast Sou ce e Source: Helmi Armand, “Indonesia a d, do es a Economic Briefing –Jakarta Blasts: Possible market implication,“17 July 2009. Indonesia composite index, days after terror attacts 0 = day of bomb blast Source: Helmi Armand, “Indonesia Economic Briefing –Jakarta Blasts: g Possible market implication,” 17 July 2009.
  • 47. Kecenderungan umum Dua kali pemilu pascareformasi berlangsung sangat damai. g Masih ada euphoria demokrasi sejalan dengan proses konsolidasi demokrasi, utamanya penguatan k l b t kelembagaan. Tidak terjadi kristalisasi kutub-kutub ekstrem, baik kiri ki i maupun kanan k k konvergensi id l i atau, i ideologi t bahkan, non-ideologis. Praktis tak t j di P kti t k terjadi perubahan rezim. Y b h i Yang sekarang k bercokol adalah pentolan-pentolan Orde Baru: Presiden, Wapres, Ketua DPR, Ketua DPD, Menko Kesra kompromistik.
  • 48. Penciutan jumlah partai Jumlah partai di DPR akan menciut dengan pemberlakuan parliamentary threshold 2,5 persen. Berdasarkan hasil pemilu 2009 hanya ada 9 (sembilan) partai. Pengelompokan antara partai berkuasa dan partai oposisi akan lebih tegas tegas. Bisa menghasilkan pemerintahan dan checks & balances yang lebih efektif.
  • 49. Kian konvergen Partai “kiri” tak ada yang lolos. kiri Partai “kiri-tengah” merosot: PDIP Partai “kanan” melorot tajam (PPP), banyak pula yang tak lolos (PBB, PBR, PDS, PKNU, dll.) Partai “kanan-tengah” merosot (PKB dan PAN) Partai tengah menggelembung (PD Golkar, (PD, Golkar Gerindra, Hanura)
  • 50. Peluang jangan disia-siakan Tidak membutuhkan proses transisi yang panjang, k j karena iincumbent. b t Pilpres satu p p putaran memberikan waktu y g yang cukup leluasa untuk mempersiapkan segalanya dengan lebih baik. g Tim ekonomi pada KIB-II lebih kredibel, kompeten dan kompak kompak. RPJM realistik dan menukik atau fokus.
  • 51. Bagian IV Prospek 2010
  • 52. The world economic outlook 2009-2010 outlook, 2009 2010 Description 2009 2010 World GDP growth, % -1.1 3.1 -United States -2.7 -2 7 1.5 15 -Euro Area -4.2 0.3 -Japan Japan -5.4 54 1.7 17 -Developing economies 1.7 5.1 -China Chi 8.5 85 9.0 90 -Asean-5 0.7 4.0 World trade growth, % -11.9 2.5 Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2009..
  • 53. Indonesia upgraded!!! Despite the weakness of the global economy, the Economist Intelligence Unit has raised its forecast for Indonesian economic growth. We now expect real GDP to expand by 2.4% this year, compared with a contraction of 1.4% in our previous forecast. We expect growth to accelerate to 3.2% in 2010, up from 0.5% 0 5% previously. (Source: economist.com, May 22nd 2009 From the i l Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire.) IMF (June 5, 2009): Looking forward, we have raised 5 forward our projection of economic growth for 2009 to 3-4 p percent (from 2.5 ) with inflation expected to decline to ( 2.5%) p about 5 percent by the end of the year. . Source: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09201.htm
  • 54. Projections of GDP by several agencies No Agency Date 2009 2010 1 Bank Indonesia March 2009 3.5 5.0 2 IIF July 2009 4.5 5.5 3 Go t o do es a Gov’t of Indonesia Septe be 009 September 2009 4.5 5 55 5.5 4 ADB September 2009 4.3 5.4 5 World Bank September 2009 4.3 5.4 6 Economist October 2009 4.2 4.5 7 IMF October 2009 4.0 4.8
  • 55. EIU’s prediction on Indonesian economy GDP growth, percent Source: The Economist, various issues.
  • 56. Projections of GDP by expenditures 2008 2009* 2010* Description BI Bappenas FB FB Private consumption 5,3 3,7 3.5 5.1 4.8‐5.0 Gov’t consumption 10,4 9,9 7.7 13.2 7.6‐10.5 Investment 11,7 6,0 5.0 4.5 7.1‐7.6 Exports (goods &  services) 9,5 ‐4.6 4.6 ‐6.0 6.0 ‐16.2 16.2 6.3 6.4 6.3‐6.4 Imports (goods &  services 10,0 ‐4.8 ‐9.0 ‐21.8 8.0 Gross domestic product G d i d 6,1 61 4,0 40 4.0 40 4,7 47 5.4‐5.9 5459 * Projection
  • 57. Projections of GDP by sector Economic sector 2008 2009* 2010* 1. Agriculture 4.8 3.9 3.4-3.6 2. Mining 0.5 1.5 0.4-1.6 3. Manufacturing 3 M f t i 3.7 2.5 3.1-3.9 4. Utilities 10.9 11.1 10.7-11.2 5. 5 Construction 7.3 73 6.4 64 6.9-7.2 6972 6. Trade and hospitality 7.2 2.3 4.6-5.7 7. Transport and communications 16.7 15.5 15.2 16.6 15.2-16.6 8. Finance 8.2 6.2 6.5-6.9 9. Services 6.4 6.5 6.5 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 6.1 4.7 5.4-5.9 * Projection
  • 58. Projection of selected economic indicators 2008 2009 2010 GDP growth, % 6.1 4.7 5.4-5.9 Inflation, % 11.2 3.8 4.5-5.5 Current account, % of GDP 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.6-0.8 BI rate, year end, % 9.25 6.25 7.00 Rp/US$, period average 9,767 10,050 9,250-9,500 Fiscal balance, % of GDP -0.1 -2.0 -1.5 Open unemployment, % 8.4 8.1 8.0
  • 59. Rupiah cenderung menguat Sepanjang likuiditas yang melimpah di AS belum disedot The Fed, nilai US$ akan cenderung melemah. Dengan pasar domestik yang cukup besar, Indonesia semakin menarik bagi FDI. Beberapa sudah masuk. Akan cukup banyak yang menyusul, asalkan .. Moody s Moody’s sudah meningkatkan rating Indonesia. Jika tak Indonesia ada halangan mendasar, S & P pun diperkirakan bakal melakukan upgrade dari BB+ menjadi BBB-. Dengan pg j g begitu, institutional investors akan semakin tertarik masuk ke pasar modal kita. Namun volatilitas Rupiah harus tetap diwaspadai.
  • 60. External vulnerability: regional comparison – economic perception Too big, too high Bloomberg commodity price index Should be here Source: CITI’s Asia Macro Views, “Measuring Asia’s External Vulnerability,” 8 October 2008
  • 61. Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB menurut pengeluaran Versi Dasar dengan pertumbuhan PDB rata-rata 2010-14 = 6,3% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Konsumsi masyarakat K i k t 5,5 55 4,8 48 4,6 46 4,7 47 4,8 48 4,9 49 Konsumsi pemerintah 13,2 7,6 8,6 8,9 8,8 9,7 Investasi* 4,0 7,1 7,6 8,7 8,3 7,9 Ekspor barang & jasa -16,2 16 2 6,4 64 7,7 77 12,2 12 2 14,8 14 8 15,3 15 3 Impor barang & jasa -21,8 8,0 8,2 13,8 15,1 15,5 Produk Domestik Bruto 4,8 5,4 5,8 6,3 6,9 7,1 Versi Optimistik dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan PDB 2010-14 = 6,9% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Konsumsi masyarakat K i k t 5,1 51 5,0 50 4,7 47 4,8 48 4,6 46 5,0 50 Konsumsi pemerintah 13,2 10,5 8,6 8,9 9,2 9,7 Investasi* 5,0 7,6 9,0 11,6 11,1 7,9 Ekspor barang & jasa -16,2 6,4 9,8 12,2 14,2 15,7 Impor barang & jasa -21,8 8,0 10,2 13,5 14,8 15,5 Produk Domestik Bruto 4,8 5,9 6,5 7,2 7,4 7,4
  • 62. Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB menurut sektor Versi Dasar dengan pertumbuhan PDB rata-rata 2010-14 = 6,3% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1. Pertanian 3,3 3,4 3,4 3,3 3,4 3,5 2. 2 Pertambangan 0,4 0,4 0,3 03 0,4 04 1,1 11 0,9 09 3. Industri manufaktur 2,6 3,1 4,5 5,1 5,3 6,0 4. Utilitas 10,6 10,7 10,6 10,7 10,7 10,7 5. Konstruksi 7,2 7,3 7,0 7,1 7,1 7,1 6. Perdagangan & hospitalitas 2,4 4,6 5,3 6,7 7,0 7,1 7. Transport & komunikasi 16,1 15,2 14,3 14,5 16,7 16,3 8. Keuangan 8,0 7,9 7,4 7,5 7,4 7,5 9. 9 Jasa-jasa 6,6 66 6,5 65 6,6 66 6,6 66 6,6 66 6,3 63 Produk Domestik Bruto 4,8 5,4 5,8 6,3 6,8 7,1
  • 63. Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB menurut sektor Versi Optimistik dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan PDB 2010-14 = 6,9% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1. Pertanian 3,9 3,6 3,8 4,0 4,1 4,2 e a ba ga 2. Pertambangan 1,5 , 1,6 , 2,3 ,3 2,7 , 2,2 , 2,0 ,0 3. Industri manufaktur 2,6 3,9 4,8 5,5 6,3 6,5 4. Utilitas 11,2 11,2 11,5 11,7 11,7 11,4 5. Konstruksi 6,4 6,9 7,5 7,5 7,3 7,1 6. Perdagangan & hospitalitas 2,3 5,7 6,6 7,3 7,6 7,4 7. Transport & komunikasi 16,5 16,6 15,6 17,7 16,7 16,3 8. Keuangan 6,2 6,9 7,5 7,6 7,5 6,9 9. Jasa-jasa 9 Jasa jasa 6,6 66 6,5 65 6,6 66 6,6 66 6,6 66 6,3 63 Produk Domestik Bruto 4,8 5,9 6,5 7,2 7,4 7,4
  • 64. Kebutuhan investasi Skenario Indikator 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, %YoY , 6.1 4.8 5.4 5.8 6.3 6.9 7.1 PDB Nominal, Rp Tril 4954 5795 6791 8015 9479 11299 13548 Baseline Kebutuhan Investasi, Rp Tril 1370 1698 1967 2405 2885 3240 3776 Investasi/PDB, % 27.6 29.3 29.0 30.0 30.4 28.7 27.9 ICOR 3.7 5.0 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.8 Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, %YoY 6.1 4.8 5.9 6.5 7.2 7.4 7.4 PDB Nominal Rp Tril Nominal, 4954 5795 6823 8104 9661 11577 13916 Adjustment Kebutuhan Investasi, Rp Tril 1370 1698 1976 2432 2941 3320 3879 Investasi/PDB, % 27.6 29.3 29.0 30.0 30.4 28.7 27.9 ICOR 3.7 5.0 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.6
  • 65. Sumber dana investasi Skenario Sumber Unit 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F Nilai, Rp T 1179 1500 1700 2091 2517 2815 3286 Swasta Pangsa, Pangsa % 86.1 86 1 88.3 88 3 86.4 86 4 87.0 87 0 87.2 87 2 86.9 86 9 87.0 87 0 Nilai, Rp T 191 198 267 314 368 425 490 Pemerintah Baseline Pangsa, % 13.9 11.7 13.6 13.0 12.8 13.1 13.0 Nilai, Rp T 1370 1698 1967 2405 2885 3240 3776 Total Pangsa, % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Peningkatan PDB Rp T 1005 841 996 1224 1464 1820 2249 Nilai, Rp T 1179 1500 1708 2114 2565 2885 3376 Swasta Pangsa, % P 86.1 86 1 88.3 88 3 86.4 86 4 87.0 87 0 87.2 87 2 86.9 86 9 87.0 87 0 Nilai, Rp T 191 198 268 317 375 436 503 Pemerintah Adjustment Pangsa, % 13.9 11.7 13.6 13.0 12.8 13.1 13.0 Nilai, Rp T , p 1370 1698 1976 2432 2941 3320 3879 Total Pangsa, % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Peningkatan PDB Rp T 1005 841 1028 1280 1557 1916 2339 Catatan: - Investasi Pemerintah adalah Belanja Barang Modal Pemerintah Pusat + Pemerintah Dati I & II - Peningkatan PDB menggambarkan jumlah utang maksimum yang bisa dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah dengan menjaga rasio DEBT/GDP tetap konstan.
  • 66. Keunikan Indonesia
  • 67. Negara kepulauan Mewujudkan negara maritim yang  mampu mengintegrasikan  perekonomian domestik menuju  negara maju yang berkeadilan
  • 68. Kerangka Strategi Pembangunan VISI: Mewujudkan negara maritim yang mampu mengintegrasikan perekonomian domestik menuju negara maju yang berkeadilan M 1. Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi dan berkelanjutan; I S 2. Perluasan penyerapan tenaga kerja; I 3. Pengentasan kemiskinan dan pemerataan pembangunan. Melalui pencapaian 5 (lima) sasaran strategis: p p ( ) g Struktur Sumber Pemanfaatan Birokrasi yang ekonomi yang Sumber daya pembiayaan SDA secara kompeten, kokoh, mandiri manusia pembangunan optimal dan efektif dan dan berdaya produktif mencukupi dan lestari bersih saing efisien Fokus pada 7 area kebijakan: pada kebijakan: Infrastruktur Kualitas sumber Teknologi Pasar tenaga  Pasar modal  Pasar barang: Kebijakan • Penyediaan daya manusia • Peningkatan dan kerja: dan perbankan: • Sistem distribusi afirmatif: infrastruktur (fisik ( • Implementasi  l i efisiensi alokasi  fi i i l k i • P Penyempurnaan  • M bili i d Mobilisasi dana  yang efisien.  yang efisien • Active industrial  dan non fisik)  sistem pendanaan  anggaran negara UU  masyarakat:  • Perlindungan  policy: men‐ yang handal; kesehatan  untuk ketenagakerjaan; tabungan haji,  wajar bagi  dorong kegiatan penelitian; • Peningkatan  surplus dana produsen  usaha potensial • Skema pendanaan berkelanjutan dan  • Insentif kegiatan  penyerapan  masyarakat. domestik dari  dan strategis; • Kebijakan harga terencana; • Monetisasi asset  persaingan tidak  R&D oleh  tenaga kerja  • Penguatan infrastruktur. • Pembangunan  sektor formal; negara; adil dengan  swasta; struktur pelaku pendidikan  pendidikan • Implementasi Implementasi  • Peningkatan Peningkatan  produsen luar  produsen luar usaha; h mengacu pada  sistem jaminan  basis pajak.  negeri; • Persebaran  output. sosial bagi  spasial kegiatan  pekerja; ekonomi  Lingkungan sosial dan politik Kerangka kelembagaan Struktur pasar 68 SUPRASTRUKTUR
  • 69. Logistic cost in comparison
  • 70. Port efficiency Container handling cost per  Ship movement per hour  40 feet (US$) (unit) L. Chabang, Thailand 43 L. Chabang, Thailand 75 Chittagong, Bangladesh 60 Chittagong, Bangladesh g g g 10 Kwangyang, Korea 69 Kwangyang, Korea 80 Port Klang, Malaysia 70 Port Klang, Malaysia 50 Manila, Philippines 85 Minila, Philippines 20 Keohsiung,Taiwan 88 Keohsiung, Taiwan 75 T. Priok, Indonesia 130 T. Priok, Indonesia 35 Source: USAID-SENADA, 2008. Tanjung Priok is the biggest seaport in Indonesia, but the productivity is the lowest among neighbouring countris
  • 71. Waspada Recovery ekonomi dunia yang pesat tahun 2010 mendorong kenaikan real demand untuk commodities. Harga minyak bisa kembali menembus US$100 per barrel. Implementasi FTA dengan China bisa mengganggu pemulihan industri manufaktur. Skandal d Sk d l demii skandall akan t k k k d k terkuak, menyentuh lapisan elit.
  • 72. Terima Kasih Email: faisal basri@gmail com faisal.basri@gmail.com Blog: http://kompasiana.com/faisalbasri