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Are you going to sell your home...Yikes...

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Are you going to sell your home...Yikes... Presentation Transcript

  • 1. “ If you don’t own a home, buy one. If you own one home, buy another one. If you own two homes, buy a third. And, lend your relatives the money to buy a home.” – John Paulson 9/27/2010
  • 2. Mortgage Rates – 30 year fixed Federal Reserve
  • 3.
    • NAR Projections
    • MBA Projections
    Mortgage Rates – 30 year fixed 5.4% 5.8% National Association of Realtors, Mortgage Bankers Association 10/2010
  • 4. DS News 9/28/2010 Shadow Inventory S&P’s assessment of the stretch it will take the industry to clear the current volume of distressed properties in the shadows is about 41 months. That’s up from the 33-month timeline projected by the agency’s analysts earlier this year. According to the agency’s report, the growth in the shadow inventory is having three primary effects in the housing market:
    • low liquidation rates artificially skew the visible supply of distressed homes available for sale
    • the growing inventory negatively pressures existing home prices
    • only when the backlog clears, will market home prices fully correct.
  • 5. Clear Capital - Special Release Clear Capital 10/22/2010 two-month 5.9% price decline
  • 6. Case Shiller Home Price Index Standard & Poors Index 10/26/2010
  • 7. "We are at a flex point in housing valuation," said Michael Feder, President and CEO of Radar Logic. "With record supply, already paltry demand and systemic threats to a possible correction, we remain terribly concerned about forward home prices." RPX Monthly Housing Market Report 10/21/2010 Prices
  • 8. Morgan Stanley expects 2011 home prices to fall 5% to 10% from this year with four years of flat prices after that, although "the risk of slight additional downside in prices, and extension of the trough to 2012, has increased." Morgan Stanley Housing Wire 10/01/2010
  • 9. MacroMarkets 10/2010 Survey Source: KCM 11/2010 Home Price Expectation Survey The percentage of experts who saw no price growth for the rest of 2010.
  • 10. Macro Market TODAY 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Home Price Expectation Survey Source: KCM 11/2010
  • 11. Macro Market Home Price Expectations Survey 10/2010 Home Price Expectation Survey
  • 12. Macro Market Home Price Expectation Survey Source: KCM 11/2010 Projected Cumulative Price Changes vs. Year-end 2009 by Year
  • 13. FHFA Projections 10/21/2010
  • 14. Explanation of previous slide
  • 15. The Wall Street Journal “ Enough with the doom and gloom about homeownership.” – WSJ 9/16/2010
    • You can get a good deal.
    • Mortgages are cheap.
    • You can save on taxes.
    • It will be yours.
    • You’ll get a better home.
    • It offers some inflation protection.
    • It’s risk capital.
    • It’s forced savings.
    • There is a lot to choose from.
    • Sooner or later, the market will clear .
    Wall Street Journal 9/16/2010
  • 16. A Dream House After All Karl Case of Case Shiller “ It means having a solid and fairly safe long-term investment that is coupled with the satisfaction of owning the house they live in. That dream is still alive … For people with a realistic version of the American Dream, buying a house now can make a lot of sense.” New York Times 9/1/2010
  • 17. “ If you don’t own a home, buy one. If you own one home, buy another one. If you own two homes, buy a third. And, lend your relatives the money to buy a home.” – John Paulson 9/27/2010
  • 18. Fannie Mae: National Housing Survey 70% Say Time to Buy is Now Fannie Mae 9/2010 70% of respondents think it is a good time to buy a house (of which 36% think it is a very good time to buy), up six points from January. This is also four points higher than the 2003 survey – well before home prices peaked – when 66 % said it was a good time.