What Happened to the Commodity         Bull Market?   California Resource Investment Conference                February 11...
Rogers Commodity Index
Great News!
Outline● Where are we in the cycle?● Mining cycle● Hype cycle● Prediction
2004...
TIMING?
2004...
Rogers Commodity Index
Commodity Bull Market● Started in 1998/1999● 17 Year Cycle on Average● Ending in 2016???
Rogers Agriculture
Rogers Agriculture
Rogers Energy
Rogers Energy
Oil
Natural Gas
Rogers Metals
Rogers Metals
Copper
Mine Cycle
RISK vs Project Value
History of Hype CurvesDeveloped by Gartner Researchin 1995 and refined continuoslysince.
Hype Cycles provide a graphicrepresentation of the maturityand adoption of technologiesand applications, and how theyare p...
5 Key Points● Technology Trigger● Peak of Inflated Expectations● Trough of Disillusionment● Slope of Enlightenment● Platea...
Uranium Spot Price
UEX.TO
UEX
WEE.V
RVX.TO
2 Parts
Remember!Pigs feeding at thetroughof disillusionment will notbe slaughtered
NASDAQ
GOLD
1966
2012
Commodity Bull Market● Started in 1998/1999● 17 Year Cycle on Average● Ending in 2016???
Commodity Bull Market● Started in 1998/1999● 17 Year Cycle on Average● Ending in 2016???
www.JimLetourneau.com    Jim Letourneau, P.Geol.    Big Picture Guy
What Happened to the Commodity Bull Market
What Happened to the Commodity Bull Market
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What Happened to the Commodity Bull Market

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Where are we in the long term commodity cycle?

While some commodities are decidedly NOT in a bull market (natural gas) most look horrible on a 3 year chart but pretty nice on a 15 year chart.

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
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What Happened to the Commodity Bull Market

  1. 1. What Happened to the Commodity Bull Market? California Resource Investment Conference February 11, 2012 Jim Letourneau, P.Geol. Big Picture Guy www.JimLetourneau.com
  2. 2. Rogers Commodity Index
  3. 3. Great News!
  4. 4. Outline● Where are we in the cycle?● Mining cycle● Hype cycle● Prediction
  5. 5. 2004...
  6. 6. TIMING?
  7. 7. 2004...
  8. 8. Rogers Commodity Index
  9. 9. Commodity Bull Market● Started in 1998/1999● 17 Year Cycle on Average● Ending in 2016???
  10. 10. Rogers Agriculture
  11. 11. Rogers Agriculture
  12. 12. Rogers Energy
  13. 13. Rogers Energy
  14. 14. Oil
  15. 15. Natural Gas
  16. 16. Rogers Metals
  17. 17. Rogers Metals
  18. 18. Copper
  19. 19. Mine Cycle
  20. 20. RISK vs Project Value
  21. 21. History of Hype CurvesDeveloped by Gartner Researchin 1995 and refined continuoslysince.
  22. 22. Hype Cycles provide a graphicrepresentation of the maturityand adoption of technologiesand applications, and how theyare potentially relevant tosolving real business problemsand exploiting newopportunities.
  23. 23. 5 Key Points● Technology Trigger● Peak of Inflated Expectations● Trough of Disillusionment● Slope of Enlightenment● Plateau of Productivity
  24. 24. Uranium Spot Price
  25. 25. UEX.TO
  26. 26. UEX
  27. 27. WEE.V
  28. 28. RVX.TO
  29. 29. 2 Parts
  30. 30. Remember!Pigs feeding at thetroughof disillusionment will notbe slaughtered
  31. 31. NASDAQ
  32. 32. GOLD
  33. 33. 1966
  34. 34. 2012
  35. 35. Commodity Bull Market● Started in 1998/1999● 17 Year Cycle on Average● Ending in 2016???
  36. 36. Commodity Bull Market● Started in 1998/1999● 17 Year Cycle on Average● Ending in 2016???
  37. 37. www.JimLetourneau.com Jim Letourneau, P.Geol. Big Picture Guy
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