Calgary Thriving
On Growth

2014 Economic Outlook &
Regional Housing Forecast
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

contents
Introduction .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  ...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

introduction
The year 2013 turned out to be stronger than foreca...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

global economy
europe

In the second quarter of 2013, the Euro a...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

global economy
china & emerging markets

China’s economic growth...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

global economy
united states

The year 2013 saw disappointing ec...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

global economy
Note: U.S. yields
The Federal Reserve has
been pr...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

domestic economic
environment
canada

The 2013 forecast for GDP ...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

domestic economic
environment
alberta

Alberta is one of the top...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

domestic economic
environment
energy | crude oil

Investment in ...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

domestic economic
environment
energy | crude oil

continued

201...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

domestic economic
environment
energy | natural gas

An abundance...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

calgary economy
GDp

Following two years of growth in Calgary’s ...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

calgary economy
employment

Calgary has benefited from strong em...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

calgary economy
employment

continued

The energy sector represe...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

calgary economy
net migration

The city of Calgary population gr...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

calgary housing
rental

Strong net migration has resulted in a s...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

calgary housing
new home

Total housing starts are on pace to de...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

calgary housing
resale market summary

For the second year in a ...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

calgary housing
resale market summary

continued

CITY OF CALGAR...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

calgary housing
resale market summary

continued

Easing net mig...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

calgary housing
single family

Single family sales activity pick...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

calgary housing
single family

continued

CALGARY SINGLE FAMILY ...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

calgary housing
condominium

Rising prices and tightening supply...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

calgary housing
condominium

continued

Both condominium apartme...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

calgary housing
surrounding areas

While not all surrounding com...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

forecast risks
Several factors can affect economic conditions in...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

forecast summary
Economic Indicators

2011

2012

2013 (F)

2014...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

references
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, ...
Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842

CREB® is a professional body of more than 5,000 licensed brokers...
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2014 Creb Calgary Housing Forecast Report

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Every year the Calgary Real Estate Board comes out with their forecast on the regional housing market. This is for 2014 and includes previous years for those that like to look back a few years as well.

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Transcript of "2014 Creb Calgary Housing Forecast Report"

  1. 1. Calgary Thriving On Growth 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Forecast
  2. 2. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 contents Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Global Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 China and Emerging Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Domestic Economic Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Alberta . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Energy | Crude Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Energy | Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 10 11 13 Calgary Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Net Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Calgary Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Rental . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 New Home. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Resale Market Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Single Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Condominium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Surrounding Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Forecast Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Forecast Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast 3
  3. 3. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 introduction The year 2013 turned out to be stronger than forecast, with growth in sales volume in the city of Calgary of 11 per cent and an average annual benchmark price increase of 7.9 per cent over the previous year. The strong performance was driven by two consecutive years of net migration, combined with an improving job outlook and confidence over long-term economic prospects. Market conditions also favoured the seller for much of the year. Overall, the market is positioned well going into this year. The 2014 CREB® forecast is based on the most current data available from a broad array of sources. Among other things, it weighs the health of macro and local economies, net migration, employment and numerous other factors to project how the resale housing market will perform this year. It concludes with an inventory of risks, both upside and downside, which could affect the forecast trends. global economy summary Global economic conditions often influence commodity prices and economic growth for commodity-rich countries, such as Canada. In 2013, global economic growth was expected to reach 2.8 per cent (Bank of Canada), which is lower than levels recorded in 2012 and below expectations formulated in 2013. Although there is some disappointment in the rate of growth, the downside risk has eased. While emerging markets remain the main contributor to growth, advanced economies have recently been gaining speed while emerging market economies have slowed under tightening financial conditions. This year, economists expect global growth will gain momentum to an annual rate of more than three per cent. The acceleration is based on improvements in the advanced economies, led by the economic recovery in the United States. REAL GDP GROWTH 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2006 2007 2008 2009 Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies 4 2010 World 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013 CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast
  4. 4. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 global economy europe In the second quarter of 2013, the Euro area posted real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 1.1 per cent, marking an end to six quarters of recession (International Monetary Fund). While growth prospects remain weak at best, the GDP growth could represent some stabilization in the region. Challenges remain in the Euro area, including differences in economic health between the core Euro area and periphery countries. Many of the peripheral areas remain in recessionary territory, with high unemployment rates. Overall, economic growth is expected to be extremely slow for an extended period of time, as fiscal consolidation continues amidst tight credit conditions and depressed labour markets (IMF). Downside risk persists as the area’s financial system remains vulnerable to any economic shock. Furthermore, substantial recovery will require progress in both fiscal and banking reforms. On the upside, the level of risk has eased somewhat, as there is less fear of a Euro area crisis (Toronto Dominion). GDP GROWTH EUROPE % 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 France 2012 2013(F) Germany Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain United Kingdom Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013 2014(F) UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 France 2012 2013(F) Germany 2014(F) Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain United Kingdom Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013 CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast 5
  5. 5. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 global economy china & emerging markets China’s economic growth has been slowing since the double-digit pace of 2010, in line with targets set by authorities there. Policymakers have refrained from stimulating growth, preferring to ensure financial stability and move the economy to a more balanced and sustainable growth path. China’s growth has been affected by weaker demand for its exports from weakened economies, particularly Europe. In 2013, economic growth was estimated at 7.6 per cent with further easing this year to 7.3 per cent (IMF). REAL GDP GROWTH 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 2007 Brazil China 2008 India 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013 Slower growth in China and advanced economies is having ripple effects across emerging markets, particularly those in developing Asia. In addition, it is placing downward pressure on commodity prices as demand eases. Despite the near-term challenges, 2014-2015 growth is expected to pick up modestly as credit conditions stabilize, progress is reached on structural reports and demand strengthens from advanced economies (Bank of Canada). 6 CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast
  6. 6. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 global economy united states The year 2013 saw disappointing economic growth in the United States. While government cuts were expected to place a drag on growth, wage and employment growth were slower than expected in the first half of the year. In addition, speculation over the U.S. Federal Reserve tapering its stimulative policy pushed mortgage rates up by 95 basis points, slowing housing activity. The weaker domestic demand resulted in slower-thanexpected business investment growth. Combined with political infighting, a government shutdown and shaken confidence, 2013 growth is estimated to total 1.5 per cent, well below the two-plus per cent expansion expected (Bank of Canada). US GROWTH 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F Source: Conference Board of Canada Forecast Market Prices US GDP Growth Despite turbulence in 2013, fundamentals in the U.S. economy are far better today than what they were one year ago. Excess supply in the housing market has been declining, consumers and businesses are in better financial shape, the federal government has reduced its deficit, financial companies are willing to loan again and the delinquency rate is declining. US EMPLOYMENT 4% 140,000,000 3% 138,000,000 2% 136,000,000 1% 0% 134,000,000 -1% 132,000,000 -2% 130,000,000 -3% 128,000,000 -4% 126,000,000 -5% -6% 124,000,000 Jan ‘07 Jan ‘08 Employment Growth Y/Y Jan ‘09 Employed Jan ‘10 Jan ‘11 Jan ‘12 Jan ‘13 US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board of Canada CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast 7
  7. 7. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 global economy Note: U.S. yields The Federal Reserve has been providing monetary stimulus to the U.S. economy through its asset-purchase program (quantitative easing) to place downward pressure on long-term yields or interest rates. This has been a successful strategy. However, with improving economic indicators, the U.S. Fed indicated it would begin reducing the stimulus. In anticipation of this move, longer-term interest rates have risen. The Federal Reserve backed away from its decision, indicating it would delay the tapering of the stimulus until further evidence of economic improvement is found. This reversal came as a surprise, but did not result in a full retraction of the earlier rise in the yields. Markets expect higher future yields as the economy improves and quantitative easing comes to an end. Note: Growth hinging on the U.S. and Europe Global economic growth is expected to pick up this year and in 2015, as the world’s largest economy –the U.S. – gains momentum, and the Euro zone recession ends. As advanced markets improve, this should also support export markets in emerging economies, including China. While economic conditions are far from what was recorded before the recent recession, the momentum shift is movement in the right direction. However, growth in Europe and the U.S. could falter if there is deterioration of financial conditions and/or renewed political uncertainty. 8 united states continued U.S. economic growth is expected to accelerate to 2.5 per cent this year and 3.3 per cent in 2015. With consumers in better shape, increased consumption should boost business investment and labour market conditions. Further, household formation is expected to rebound, supporting continued growth in housing. The U.S. export market is supported by improved competiveness brought about by sustained gains in productivity and lower energy costs. Overseas oil imports are expected to fall, reflecting the expansion in domestic supply. Non-oil imports are expected to increase steadily, driven by stronger domestic demand (Bank of Canada). US TREASURY YIELD CURVE 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Jan ‘13 Feb ‘13 1 yr Mar ‘13 Apr ‘13 May ‘13 Jun ‘13 Jul ‘13 Aug ‘13 Sep ‘13 5 yr Oct ‘13 Nov ‘13 Dec ‘13 Source: US Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH GDP Growth % 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 2006 United States 2007 2008 Euro area 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013 CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast
  8. 8. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 domestic economic environment canada The 2013 forecast for GDP growth of 1.7 per cent (TD) in the Canadian economy fell short of expectations, due to lacklustre performance in business investment and exports. Weaker-than-expected performance and demand from the U.S. market limited growth on most of our exports and curbed business investment. Flooding in Alberta and a labour strike in Quebec temporarily weakened second-quarter growth. Exports may also have been hurt by shifts in trade linkages that have been difficult to capture and by ongoing competiveness challenges. There appears to be a gap between the historical relationship between growth rates of exports and foreign demand. Many believe this historical relationship will reassert itself, but the current gap is a risk to the Canadian economy. Firms are addressing this by improving their performance and expanding their markets, but many firms are waiting to see sustained increase in demand before they commit to investment expansion (Royal Bank). Anticipated growth in the U.S. economy over the next two years is expected to fuel a rise in Canadian export growth. This year, export growth is expected to be driven by crude oil exports and other non-energy commodities, such as metals and forestry products. Meanwhile, non-commodity exports, such as machinery and equipment, will gradually strengthen, but at a slower pace (Bank of Canada). With housing and consumption growth expected to remain at similar levels this year compared to 2013, the pickup in Canadian GDP growth hinges on growth in exports and business investment. GDP growth is forecast to rise to 2.4 per cent this year and 2.6 per cent in 2015 (Conference Board of Canada). 1.7% Canada Price Edward Island Newfoundland and Labrador Quebec Ontario 5.1% 0.5% 1.1% Nova Scotia New Brunswick 2.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.9% 0.4% 1.8% 1.4% 2% 1.5% 2.3% 1.9% 2% Manitoba 2.4% Saskatchewan British Columbia 2013 2014(F) 3.1% 2.8% Alberta 1.4% 3.6% 2.2% Source: Forecast by TD Economics as at October, 2013 CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast Note: interest rates Overall unemployment remains high, with oversupply of workers preventing a significant push on incomes and wages. This limits inflationary pressures. With inflation below target and expected to remain so until at least 2015, it is likely the Bank of Canada will maintain stimulative monetary policy. Tightening in monetary policy on both sides of the border is expected in the future, as economic conditions improve. This will drive up long-term yields, translating into some upward push in long-term lending rates. In 2013, markets reacted to discussion of future tightening in policy and the five-year rate climbed. Despite the simulative monetary policy in place, it is estimated that Canadian five-year bond yields could rise by another 50 basis points by the end of this year and another 70 basis points through 2015. (TD Bank). 9
  9. 9. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 domestic economic environment alberta Alberta is one of the top performing provinces in terms of economic growth, employment opportunities, income and population growth. Much of this prosperity is rooted in energy investment, which spills over into other sectors. While the June floods is expected to affect 2013 GDP growth figures, it is expected to quickly rebound as a result of rebuilding efforts. Furthermore, investment in the energy sector and rising energy exports should remain a source of economic growth (Conference Board of Canada). The abundance of jobs and strong economy has attracted a large influx of people to the province in 2013. Alberta’s population reached more than four million by the third quarter of 2013, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 3.5 per cent. That made it the fastest growing population in Canada (Statistics Canada). This rise in population, combined with the rebuilding effort, will keep the construction industry busy well into this year, boosting Alberta’s housing market. While solid growth is expected to continue, Alberta’ economy also faces significant risks. In its forecast, the Conference Board of Canada assumes the necessary infrastructure will be in place to accommodate production as it comes online. It also assumes real non-residential investment will increase by nearly five per cent annually between 2013 and 2017. Oil production could be slowed by limits in pipeline capacity, and that could deter investment activity and employment growth. Rail has helped get oil to market, and longer term several pipeline projects have been proposed. The recent National Energy Board approval of the Northern Gateway Pipeline does not guarantee it will be constructed, as it still faces several political hurdles and social opposition. NOMINAL INVESTMENT SPENDING ENERGY ALBERTA (ANNUAL) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F) 2015(F) Source: Conference Board of Canada 10 CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast
  10. 10. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 domestic economic environment energy | crude oil Investment in oil sands mining, upgrading and in-situ bitumen projects have been driving growth in Albert’s energy production, export growth and the overall Alberta economy. The larger spread between the North American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price and the heavy oil price (what Alberta producers receive) has been volatile. While that volatility will continue, ongoing refinery conversions, increased transportation through crude and a number of pipeline capacity improvements and expansion projects should help narrow the spread this year (Baytex Energy Corp). CRUDE OIL PRICE (MONTHLY) US $ / BBL 160.00 140.00 120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 - Jan ‘05 Jul ‘05 Jan ‘06 Brent Crude Oil Price Jul ‘06 Jan ‘07 Jul ‘07 Jan ‘08 WTI Crude Oil Price Jul ‘08 Jan ‘09 Jul ‘09 Jan ‘10 Jul ‘10 Western Canadian Select Jan ‘11 Jul ‘11 Jan ‘12 Jul ‘12 Jan ‘13 Jul ‘13 Source: Alberta Oil Sands BVM, PEMEX, Statistics Canada With production expected to grow, it is increasingly important to have the infrastructure in place to ensure Canadian product can reach diversified markets, including Eastern Canada, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Asian markets. Enhanced drilling programs have resulted in a substantial increase in U.S. production, displacing foreign imports of light crude oil. However, Canada mostly exports heavy crude oil to the U.S., not competing with domestic U.S. production. The U.S. Midwest is Canada’s largest export market, and refinery conversion projects are anticipated to increase demand in the region. However, there is potential for significant growth if access to the U.S. gulf coast refineries could be achieved. The Keystone XL pipeline would increase the ability to process heavy crude and give Canadian producers access to a large market. Crude oil demand in the U.S. Gulf Coast is almost eight million barrels per day. However, Canada only supplies 100,000 barrels per day to this market. By 2020, Canadian producers could supply 1.1 million barrels per day to this market, displacing some of the volume from sources such as Venezuela (CAPP). Producers are also looking to eastern Canada. Refineries in Quebec and Atlantic Canada import 86 per cent of their requirements, providing potential domestic growth of 700,000 b/d (CAPP). CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast 11
  11. 11. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 domestic economic environment energy | crude oil continued 2012 CANADA AND US CRUDE OIL DEMAND BY MARKET REGION AB, BC, SK (589) PADD V - excl CA (712) CA (1,619) ON (331) PADD IV (568) 12 Atlantic Canada (458) PADD II - North (ND, SD, MN, WI) (450) PADD I - East Coast (941) Note: energy prices The increase in crude oil production in North America has contributed to the discount in price the North American WTI experiences compared to the World (Brent) price. Multistage fracturing technology is being used to access crude oil in reservoirs previously considered uneconomic, resulting in a substantial increase in U.S. production. Heavy oil prices are further discounted because the product requires dillutants so it can be transported. Recent restricted capacity in pipelines feeding refineries and unscheduled maintenance also widened the price spreads (Energy Resources Conservation Board). Increased supply, combined with easing geopolitical tensions, will dampen prices this year. This year, prices are expected to average $95 per barrel (U.S. Energy Information Administration). QC (350) PADD II - South (KS, OK) (782) PADD II - East (MI, IL, IN, OH, KY, TN) (2,206) US - Alaska only US (excl Alaska) Other imports A. Canada 2012 total refinery demand in 000s b/d PADD III - Gulf Coast (7,727) W. Canada Source: CAPP, CA Energy Commission, EIA, Statistics Canada Most global energy producers are focusing on the fastest growth demand countries in Asia. Without access to tidewater, Western Canadian oil producers have limited access to these markets. If proposed pipelines proceed, 2017 is the earliest we could reach these markets. Continued delays, however, could result in lost opportunities. Most growth forecasts for Alberta and Calgary assume there are no infrastructure constraints in the oil sector. While pipeline expansion is possible, the current state remains the main downside risk for our outlook. CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast
  12. 12. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 domestic economic environment energy | natural gas An abundance of natural gas is expected to keep prices low this year. Low North American prices relative to the world price provides an opportunity for liquid natural gas (LNG) exports to Asian markets. New LNG export terminals have been proposed in both the U.S. and Canada. While domestic demand is expected to be driven by oil sands growth and conversion from coal to gas-fired electrical generation, supply growth is expected to outpace demand, keeping Henry Hub prices below $4 per MMBtu this year. HENRY HUB NAT GAS PRICE $/MMBTU 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May ‘00 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘12 ‘13 Source: US Energy Information Administration CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast 13
  13. 13. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 calgary economy GDp Following two years of growth in Calgary’s census metropolitan area (CMA) that was double nationwide figures (Conference Board of Canada), the city’s economic growth was estimated to fall 3.4 per cent in 2013 and rise to 3.7 per cent this year. Weaker-than-expected global growth affected investment as well, as did the temporary shutdown caused by severe flooding in southern Alberta. CALGARY CMA GDP GROWTH Milliions ($2002) 8% 140,000 6% 120,000 4% 100,000 2% 80,000 0% 60,000 -2% 40,000 -4% 20,000 -6% 0 2000 2001 Annual Growth 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total GDP 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F Source: Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada Forecast As the city recovers from that natural disaster, this year’s GDP growth will be boosted through additional construction and retail trade activity. Most of the growth, however, is the result of robust underlying economic conditions. Stronger global growth is expected to support energy sector investment and ultimately boost manufacturing and growth in the business service sector. In addition, strong gains in population and incomes will support demand growth for consumer goods – including residential housing and personal services – this year. 14 CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast
  14. 14. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 calgary economy employment Calgary has benefited from strong employment growth since 2011. We have had significant gains in full-time positions and have witnessed a decline in unemployment rates. The employment growth has supported gains in migration, driving our vibrant housing market. CALGARY CMA FULL AND PART TIME EMPLOYMENT Number of Jobs Unemployment Rate 80,000 8% 7% 60,000 6% 40,000 5% 4% 20,000 3% - 2% (20,000) 1% (40,000) Jan ‘04 0% Jan ‘05 Jan ‘06 Jan ‘07 Jan ‘08 Jan ‘09 Jan ‘10 Jan ‘11 Jan ‘12 Jan ‘13 Full-Time Employment Growth (Y/Y) Part-Time Employment Growth (Y/Y) Unemployment Rate Source: Statistics Canada Employment growth eased from 3.73 per cent in 2012 to 2.8 per cent in 2013 – a result of work disruption caused by the flood and reduced investment spending in the Alberta economy (City of Calgary). However, employment and wage growth levels remain the envy of many other cities. In 2013, it is estimated the majority of gains were in the business services sector and non-commercial service employment growth (including health care and education). EMPLOYMENT SHARE BY INDUSTRY CALGARY CMA 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% n d d g ce on nd an s an tio rin cti ran te n a es tu le de orta sing ary litie stru su sta tio stri sa ra fac u , In al E rim Uti ma ndu oletial T ansp eho on nu P h C ce or I Ma W Re Tr ar an Re Inf ural Fin and dW lt an Cu 2013(F) l s es cia er es sin es Bu rvic omm rvic Se n-c Se No l c na bli rso es Pu tion Pe rvic a e str S ni mi Ad Source: Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast 15
  15. 15. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 calgary economy employment continued The energy sector represents a large source of employment in the city. Energy companies have faced more difficulty raising capital and this challenge has limited their growth. Easing investment growth in the energy sector will also limit employment growth. One leading indicator of this is the office vacancy rate in the city, which has been pushing up in 2013 and is expected to rise this year. However, this trend is not a full reversal of previous gains. Forecasters anticipate the existing investment in the oil patch will support moderate expansion (Conference Board of Canada). This year, more than 24,000 additional positions are expected to be generated, for an annual increase of three per cent. More migrants moving into the city has resulted in a greater need for personal services, consumer goods and housing. Given the rising needs associated with a growing population and the reconstruction needs caused by flooding, it is not a surprise that much of the employment gains this year will be centered in industries such as personal services, wholesale and retail trade and construction. CALGARY CMA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Y/Y % Change Average Annual Employed 10% 900,000 850,000 8% 800,000 6% 750,000 3.73% 4% 2.80% 3.12% 700,000 650,000 2% 600,000 0% -2% 550,000 2003 2004 % Change (Y/Y) 16 2005 2006 Total Employment 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 500,000 Source: Seasonally adjusted data, Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast
  16. 16. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 calgary economy net migration The city of Calgary population grew by nearly 30,000 people by April 2013 versus the same month in 2012, reaching a total population of nearly 1.15 million (City of Calgary census). The majority of the growth was from over 19,000 migrants coming to the city. While it is no surprise that the surge of migrants for the past two years have contributed to the rise in demand for residential housing, the number of people entering the city this year far exceeded expectations. Previous estimates called for 4,000 fewer migrants than the number recorded in the city census. These people are drawn by the robust economic and employment growth, combined with relatively weak economic conditions in other centres in Canada and internationally. CITY OF CALGARY NET MIGRATION 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Note: demographic shifts 5,000 0 -5,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F Source: City of Calgary Census, City of Calgary Forecast This year, improving global economic conditions are expected to make it harder to attract the same number of people to the city; migration levels are expected to decline to 15,000 (City of Calgary). Despite the slower population growth, the rise in net migration is strong enough to support housing sector growth. CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast An aging population has the potential to significantly affect housing requirements. While Calgary remains a relatively young city, the age distribution of Calgary’s population is expected to shift by 2018. The largest population increase will be in the age 60-64 and 35-39 cohorts. The increase in the 60-64 group represents aging of the Baby Boomers, while growth in the 35-39 category comes from migrants to the city (City of Calgary). Overall, the number of households will increase, driving up demand for additional housing units and the need for services. However, as the working age population growth rate eases over the next decade, we may see a shift in the type of housing demanded. 17
  17. 17. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 calgary housing rental Strong net migration has resulted in a short supply of rental product. Based on the CMHC survey, apartment vacancy rates in October 2013 fell to 1.0 per cent. Vacancy rates were falling well before the June floods, and the situation became even more difficult for renters following that event. The undersupplied rental market has placed upward pressure on rental rates. Two-bedroom apartment rents average $1,224 per month in October 2013, a six per cent increase over the previous year. Tight rental market conditions have encouraged some growth in purpose-built rental starts. This should help add to supply this year. As rental rates increase, so does supply from the smaller investor market. Investors may find it more enticing to purchase or reposition current assets as rental product, adding to the supply in the market. While supply additions are expected to place some upward pressure on vacancy levels this year, it will likely not be high enough to prevent further gains in rental prices. Concerns over rising rental rates and limited choice in the rental market, combined with a still relatively affordable housing market, can encourage consumers who qualify to consider home ownership, supporting additional growth in housing demand. CALGARY CMA RENTAL MARKET 6% 1,400 5% 1,200 1,000 4% 800 3% 600 2% 400 1% 200 0% - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F Vacancy Rates, Row and Apartment three units and over - Calgary Calgary Average Rent Apartment three units and over - two bedroom 18 Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast
  18. 18. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 calgary housing new home Total housing starts are on pace to decline in 2013, due to a decline in multiple-family starts. Meanwhile, single-family starts are expected to increase by eight per cent by the end of 2013 (Conference Board of Canada). Dwindling single-family supply in the resale market encourage consumers to consider new home options. Multiple-family starts were projected to decline by 18 per cent in 2013 as construction in the apartment sector eased. However, new starts in 2012 were the second highest on record. Even with the decline in 2013, multiple-family starts remain relatively strong. This year, starts activity is forecast to improve in both the single-family and multifamily sectors. Population gains and improving economic conditions will support demand growth in the entire housing market. However, this may have a larger impact on the new home sector. As resale home prices rise, there will be more opportunities for move-up buyers, many of whom will consider a new single-family home. Alternatively, tight rental market conditions and rising rents will increase demand for more affordable multiplefamily product. Overall housing starts are expected to increase by nine per cent over 2013 levels (Conference Board of Canada). CALGARY CMA HOUSING STARTS SINGLE FAMILY 12,000 10,000 8,000 8% 3% 6,000 4,000 2,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F Source: CMHC, Conference Board of Canada Forecast CALGARY CMA HOUSING STARTS MULTI FAMILY Note: increase costs 8,000 7,000 17% -18% 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F Population increases have pushed up demand for both residential and nonresidential construction projects. Meanwhile, demand from the post flood reconstruction efforts is expected to place additional strain on Calgary’s labour market. Higher demand for labour is expected to push up costs, causing increases in new home prices. Source: CMHC, Conference Board of Canada Forecast CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast 19
  19. 19. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 calgary housing resale market summary For the second year in a row, city of Calgary sales growth reached double digits. However, 2013 is the first time since the recession of 2008 that sales activity rose above longterm trends. A bustling energy sector supported employment growth and ultimately attracted more people to the city. Migration levels were far stronger than anticipated and this contributed to the higher-than-expected rise in housing demand. Meanwhile, strained rental markets faced added pressure following the floods in June. Limited options in the rental market, combined with population gains and favourable ownership conditions, supported growth in demand for ownership properties. Following three consecutive years of improved sales and mostly declining new listings, excess supply in the housing stock depleted. With moderate additions in the new home sector, resale housing market conditions tightened and that pushed the market into sellers’ territory. CITY OF CALGARY MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND PRICE GROWTH 9 70% 8 60% 7 50% 6 40% 5 30% 4 20% 3 10% 2 0% 1 -10% Jan ‘01 Oct ‘01 Jul ‘02 Apr ‘03 Jan ‘04 Y/Y Benchmark Price Growth Oct ‘04 Jul ‘05 Apr ‘06 Jan ‘07 Oct ‘07 Jul ‘08 Apr ‘09 Jan ‘10 Oct ‘10 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Estimated months of inventory) Jul ‘11 Apr ‘12 Jan ‘13 Oct ‘13 -20% Source: CREB® Sales activity was far stronger in the second half of 2013 than the first. Adding to the boost in sales was the psychological effect from increasing longer term rates. Those who had pre-approvals at lower rates likely moved more quickly to complete their transactions. Others were motivated by concerns over impending increases in rates and prices to speed up their decisions. The other factor supporting sales growth, particularly in the second half of the year, was the rise in new listings. The number of listing had been mostly declining over the past three years and that has limited choice for potential buyers. However, as prices improved, existing homeowners were motivated to upgrade and that pushed up the level of new listings in the market. 20 CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast
  20. 20. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 calgary housing resale market summary continued CITY OF CALGARY YEAR OVER YEAR SALES AND NEW LISTINGS GROWTH 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Jan ‘13 Feb ‘13 Total Sales Change Mar ‘13 Apr ‘13 May ‘13 Jun ‘13 Jul ‘13 Aug ‘13 Sep ‘13 Oct ‘13 New Listings Growth Nov ‘13 Dec ‘13 Source: CREB® With market conditions tight for most of 2013, prices were on the rise all year. The benchmark price averaged $411,417 for the entire year, nearly eight per cent higher than last year. Meanwhile, the average and median prices totaled $456,703 and $401,000 respectively. When considering annual averages, the unadjusted benchmark price (i.e. unadjusted for inflation and seasonal factors) has risen above the 2007 highs, driven by the gains in the single family sector. Note: national housing correction? CALGARY RESIDENTIAL PRICES 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 Jan ‘05 Average Price Oct ‘05 Jul ‘06 Median Price Apr ‘07 Jan ‘08 Oct ‘08 Jul ‘09 Apr ‘10 Jan ‘11 Oct ‘11 Jul ‘12 Benchmark Price CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast Apr ‘13 Source: CREB® There has been much speculation on a soft landing for the national housing market. Certain analysts predict sales activity is expected to decline modestly and condominium prices decline as construction exceeds market demand. Most of the adjustment is expected to occur in 2015. National figures are heavily influenced by the housing markets of Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. Regardless of this speculation, this same group of analysts consistently do not see any softening in the Alberta housing market. Alberta is among the healthiest housing markets in Canada, with growth supported by economic fundamentals. 21
  21. 21. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 calgary housing resale market summary continued Easing net migration this year should help ease some of the housing demand pressure. Despite this trend, stability in the employment sector and economic growth that is a spinoff of a growing population will likely support moderate demand growth in the housing sector. Overall city sales are forecast to total 24,335 units this year, for an annual increase of 3.6 per cent. In terms of supply, it is clear that levels in the city have been on the decline in the resale market, reducing stockpiles of inventory. As the variance between household formation and new home starts narrow, this should help alleviate the decline in total housing supply in the city. Additional new home supply, an expected rise in resale listings and slower demand growth should push the market towards more balanced conditions. This will place less upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, rising wages will help offset the impact of any potential increases in long-term lending rates. Higher rates will likely also have a dampening effect of the price growth. Overall, the pace of resale price growth in the city of Calgary is forecast to ease to 4.3 per cent this year. Note: affordability Changes in affordability in the market are ultimately dependent on price growth, mortgage rates and income gains. Our market had one of the worst affordability levels in the country back in 2007. However, the recession resulted in declining prices and mortgage rates that outstripped declines in income. This resulted in our market being more affordable today than then. Rising mortgage rates will start to affect affordability, but our expected wage growth will help cushion the rate impact. CALGARY TOTAL SALES AND PRICE GROWTH 30,000 50% 46% 40% 25,000 30% 20,000 20% 15,000 10,000 21% 6% -5% 2003 2004 5% 4% 4% 5,000 - 10% 9% 2005 2006 2007 Single Family Sales Apartment Sales 10 yr Average City of Calgary Price Growth 2008 8% 4% -1% -10% -8% 2009 2010 2011 0% 2012 2013 2014F -20% Townhouse Sales Source: CREB® While mortgages will become more expensive than in the past few years, the increases in rates will not be significant enough to cause a sharp housing downturn. What may change is the composition of demand, as single-family homes rise out of reach for some, particularly in markets like Toronto and Vancouver (TD Bank). 22 CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast
  22. 22. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 calgary housing single family Single family sales activity picked up speed throughout 2013, as the level of new listings started to rise. The lack of choice in the single-family market in the first half of the year resulted in sales activity similar to the previous year. However, as the number of listings increased so did the sales activity. There were double-digit improvements throughout the second half of 2013. Overall, there were 16,302 single family sales transactions in the city of Calgary in 2013, an eight per cent increase over the previous year. The typical single family home price in 2013 averaged $458,017, up more than seven per cent from 2012. Price gains in the single family sector were strong enough to push it above 2007 peak pricing, on an unadjusted basis. Notably, there was also movement in the distribution of sales. Following the recession and associated price correction, there was a rise in the number of single-family homes available for less than $300,000. They amounted to nearly 12 per cent of the total new listings in the market in 2011. Availability in this price range has since dropped to six per cent. CALGARY SINGLE FAMILY NEW LISTINGS BY PRICE 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% <$200,000 2011 $200,000 – $299,999 $300,000 – $399,999 $400,000 – $499,999 $500,000 – $599,999 $600,000 – $699,999 $700,000 – 999,999 2013 $1,000,000+ Source: CREB® While the majority of homes available are priced between $300,000 and $500,000, there has also been a significant rise in the number of higher-priced homes available for purchase. With more choice in the higher end, it is not a surprise that sales activity has been on the rise for higher-priced property, pushing up aggregate prices. While levels of activity vary by community, citywide single-family homes that were priced below $500,000 sold quicker – and at a price closer to their list – than homes priced over $500,000. Moreover, price gains have been higher in the lower end of the market than the higher end, providing opportunity for those looking to upgrade. We anticipated that lower priced single-family homes will remain in short supply, leaving consumers looking for more affordable ownership options to consider condominiums or homes in surrounding towns. CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast 23
  23. 23. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 calgary housing single family continued CALGARY SINGLE FAMILY BENCHMARK PRICE 500,000 70% 450,000 60% 400,000 50% 350,000 40% 300,000 30% 250,000 20% 200,000 10% 150,000 0% 100,000 -10% 50,000 0 Jan ‘03 Nov ‘03 Sep ‘04 Jul ‘05 May ‘06 Mar ‘07 Jan ‘08 Nov ‘08 Sep ‘09 Jul ‘10 May ‘11 Mar ‘12 Jan ‘13 Single Family Benchmark Price Single Family Benchmark Price Change Nov ‘13 -20% Source: CREB® Sales activity in the single-family sector is expected to grow this year at a rate of 2.4 per cent, slower than the 2013 growth of eight per cent. While the pace of growth is expected to be slower in line with easing demand conditions, it is important to note the number of resale transactions will remain relatively high. In addition, increasing affordability pressures may cause many buyers to turn to condominiums and surrounding towns for their housing needs. Price gains will continue to encourage new listings growth. With less lower-priced single family product available and new stock coming in at higher prices, we can expect to see price gains in the single family market. However, easing in market tightness will place less upward pressure on prices this year compared to 2013. Overall, single-family price growth is expected to ease from nearly eight per cent growth in 2013 to 3.8 per cent this year. CALGARY SINGLE FAMILY SALES 20,000 50% 44.7% 18,000 40% 16,000 30% 14,000 20% 12,000 6.2% 19% 3.6% 9.1% 10,000 6.7% 3.9% -4.5% -7.1% 7.8% 3.8% 0% -0.7% 8,000 -10% 2003 2004 Single Family Sales 24 10% 2005 2006 10 yr Average 2007 2008 2009 Y/Y Price Change 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F Source: CREB®, CREB® Forecast CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast
  24. 24. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 calgary housing condominium Rising prices and tightening supply in affordable single-family homes increased the demand for affordable townhouse and apartment style condominiums. The rising demand helped reduce the excess inventory in the condominium market over the past two years. As a result, prices have improved for the second consecutive year. The growth was still not enough to compensate for the significant price declines that occurred in the recession, at a time when weak demand and new construction led to oversupply. As of December 2013, benchmark condominium apartment and townhouse prices remained six per cent below peak levels. CALGARY CONDOMINIUM INVENTORY 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Jan ‘08 Jan ‘09 Condo Apartment Jan ‘10 Jan ‘11 Jan ‘12 Jan ‘13 Condo Townhouse Source: CREB® CALGARY 10 YEAR APARTMENT PRICES 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Jan ‘03 Dec ‘03 Nov ‘04 Oct ‘05 Sep ‘06 Aug ‘07 Apartment Median Price Apartment Average Price Jul ‘08 Jun ‘09 May ‘10 Apr ‘11 Mar ‘12 Apartment Benchmark Price Feb ‘13 Source: CREB® CALGARY 10 YEAR TOWNHOUSE PRICES 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Jan ‘03 Dec ‘03 Nov ‘04 Townhouse Average Price Oct ‘05 Sep ‘06 Aug ‘07 Townhouse Median Price Jul ‘08 Jun ‘09 May ‘10 Apr ‘11 Townhouse Benchmark Price CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast Mar ‘12 Feb ‘13 Source: CREB® 25
  25. 25. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 calgary housing condominium continued Both condominium apartment and townhouse sales have been recording year-over-year gains throughout most of 2013. Stronger sales activity in the second half of 2013 can in part be attributed to rising lending costs motivating some to buy sooner than they had planned. In addition, the flood placed added strain on an already undersupplied rental market. As a result, many people moved into ownership sooner. In addition to lifestyle preferences, condominiums appeal to those looking for more affordable ownership options. Some consumers look to low vacancy rates, rising rents and low returns in alternative investments and opt to use condominiums as an investment opportunity. Overall, condominium sales activity total 7,187 units in 2013, an 18 per cent increase over the previous year. Condominium sales growth was strongest in townhouses, mostly because new listings growth has been positive for most of the year. Both the single-family and condominium apartment markets only started to record year-over-year new listings growth in the later portion of 2013. Moreover, nearly 43 per cent on the townhouse new listings were priced under $300,000, while only six per cent of the single-family listings were priced under $300,000. CALGARY CONDOMINIUM SALES 9,000 8,000 Note: housing composition Condominium apartment and townhouse sales activity represented 30.6 per cent of total sales activity in 2013. Over the past 20 years, the city of Calgary’s population has grown by more than 400,000 people. As the population has increased, so has the share of condominiums as a portion of housing stock. Twenty years ago, apartment style condominiums accounted for four per cent of total resale sales activity; today, they represent 17 per cent. While singlefamily homes still account for the majority of our housing stock, the share of condominium apartments and, to a lesser extent, condominium townhomes have risen. 26 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 2003 Apartment Sales 2004 2005 2006 Townhouse Sales 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F Source: CREB® With affordability expected to erode, we anticipate that demand for condominium apartment and townhouse-style units will improve at a rate greater than in the single-family sector. However, the rise in both starts and completions in the new home segment will limit the upward price growth this year. Overall condominium apartment and townhouse prices are expected to increase by 5.8 and 4.75 per cent respectively this year. CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast
  26. 26. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 calgary housing surrounding areas While not all surrounding communities have had the same housing performance, aggregate sales in the areas surrounding the city of Calgary grew by nearly 12 per cent in 2013 for a total of 4,400 units. Unlike city-wide trends, the level of new listings in surrounding areas fell by one per cent in 2013 compared to the previous year. Rising sales activity, combined with a decline in new listings, helped reduce somewhat elevated supply levels. SURROUNDING AREA 5,000 50% 42% 4,500 40% 4,000 30% 3,500 3,000 20% 2,500 23% 2,000 1,500 6% 1,000 3% 10% 8% 2% -3% 500 - 3% 6% 0% -1% -10% -9% 2003 2004 2005 2006 Single Family Sales Apartment Sales 10 yr Average 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Town Price Growth -20% 2013 Townhouse Sales Source: CREB® As market conditions tightened, price growth gained momentum. Over the past six years, typical home prices have mostly been declining. However, a decline in supply levels, particularly in the lower priced single-family homes within the city of Calgary, has supported demand growth for more affordable product offered in surrounding areas. Outside of lifestyle preferences, single-family homes in the surrounding areas typically cost less and are newer and larger than those in the city. The benchmark single-family home price in surrounding areas averaged $348,575 in 2013, significantly lower than the city of Calgary benchmark single-family home price of $458,017. Note: high river TOWNS SINGLE FAMILY PRICE 50% 400,000 40% 350,000 300,000 30% 250,000 20% 200,000 10% 150,000 0% 100,000 -10% 50,000 -20% - Single Family Y/Y Price Change Single Family Benchmark Price Source: CREB®, CREB® Forecast On average, over the past 10 years, High River represented nearly eight per cent of the sales activity in the surrounding towns figure. The southern Alberta flood had a significant impact on this community. Pre-flood sales activity was at a similar pace to the previous year. However, sales levels since the flood have fallen to levels not seen since the 1990s. The share from High River has fallen to four per cent, and this trend will affect total surrounding town activity. As supply of affordable single-family homes within the city of Calgary declines, demand in many of the surrounding areas should increase. CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook & Regional Market Forecast 27
  27. 27. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 forecast risks Several factors can affect economic conditions in the city and province, translating into upside or downside risks to the housing sector. Severe global risks have waned, including the financial crisis in Europe and the exodus of countries from the Euro, and many of the economic growth assumptions are centered on U.S. economic expansion. Most forecasts have assumed that the energy sector will be able to deliver product to market. Capacity constraints are the largest risk factor in the energy sector, and that has significant implications for industries in Alberta. Here are some near-term risks to the outlook on Calgary’s housing sector: • arket access to alternative markets for Alberta’s rising oil sands production will M influence economic activity in the province. Significant delays and or rejection of pipeline expansion projects can limit delivery capacity. This would dampen investment activity, employment and wages. Those effects would reduce demand growth for housing, and, depending on the severity, home prices. While spinoff-activity will support our housing market this year, news of further setbacks could shake consumer confidence in the Calgary market. However, approval for pipeline expansion could ease concerns, leading to stronger-than-expected gains in housing activity. • .S. economic expansion and, at minimum, stable conditions in Europe are expected U to support improvements in global growth and help support export growth in many emerging economies. Weaker than expected growth could result in lower-than-expected commodity prices, cooling investment and exports. This would weigh on all sectors of the Alberta economy. O • nce the U.S. recovery is more entrenched, this could be the catalyst needed to significantly boost domestic demand and business confidence to support expansion. • ousing supply levels in both the new home and resale market are expected to improve. H However, if the rise in demand outpaces supply, price growth could once again exceed expectations. 28 CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook Regional Market Forecast
  28. 28. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 forecast summary Economic Indicators 2011 2012 2013 (F) 2014 (F) Forecaster Calgary GDP Growth 5.38% 4.10% 3.35% 3.68% Conference Board of Canada Calgary Net Migration* 9,563 19,658 19,067 15,000 City of Calgary Calgary Employment Growth 2.96% 3.73% 2.80% 3.12% Conference Board of Canada Average Residential Mortgage Lending Rate 5 year 4.57 4.24 4.07 4.88 Conference Board of Canada Housing Starts: Single Family 5,084 5,931 6,454 6,625 Housing Starts: Multiple Family 4,208 6,880 5,670 6,612 Apartment Rental Rates** 1,084 1,150 1,224 1,280 CMHC Apartment Vacancy Rates** 2.0% 1.30% 1.0% 1.20% CMHC WTI Price 94.86 94.12 97.64 95.00 Henry Hub Price 4.12 2.83 3.81 3.90 Conference Board of Canada Conference Board of Canada U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administration **Figures based on civic census completed in April, 2013 represent actual figures **Figures based on October Survey, 2013 represent actual figures MLS® Resale Market 2011 2012 2013 2014 (F) Forecaster Sales 18,494 21,204 23,489 24,335 (3.6% ) CREB® Price Growth -1.23% 5.43% 7.87% 4.28% (429,025*) CREB® New Listings 34,068 31,844 32,153 32,703 (1.7%) CREB® Sales 13,118 15,105 16,302 16,693 (2.4%) CREB® Price Growth -0.68% 6.65% 7.85% 3.8% (475,421*) CREB® Sales 3,139 3,501 4,007 4,207 (5.0%) CREB® Price Growth -2.48% 2.16% 8.72% 5.8% (281,798) CREB® Sales 2,237 2,598 3,180 3,434 (8.0%) CREB® Price Growth -2.63% 2.70% 6.32% 4.75% (308,690*) CREB® City of Calgary City of Calgary Single Family City of Calgary Condominium Apartment City of Calgary Condominium Townhouse *Benchmark Price CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook Regional Market Forecast 29
  29. 29. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 references International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, Oct. 2013 Bank of Canada, Monetary Policy Report, Oct. 2013 The Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook 1, Autumn 2013 The Conference Board of Canada, In-Depth Housing Analysis for Canada, the Provinces, and Nine Metropolitan Areas, Autumn 2013 TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast, Sept. 25, 2013 TD Economics, Provincial Economic Forecast, Oct. 11, 2013 TD Economics, Special Report, Canadian Regional Housing Market Outlook, Oct. 18, 2013 RBC Economic Research, Provincial Outlook, Sept. 2013 City of Caglary, Calgary Region Economic Outlook 2013 – 2018, Fall 2013 Energy Resources Conservation Board, Alberta’s Energy Reserves 2012 and Supply/Demand Outlook 2013 – 2022, ST98-2013 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2013 Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Crude Oil forecast, markets and transportation, June 2013 First Energy Capital, The Global Alberta energy Markets: Issues and Trends, Oct. 29, 2013 Baytex Energy Corp., Q3 2013 Heavy Oil Pricing Update, Oct. 3, 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Nov. 2013 Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, Budget 2013, First Quarter Fiscal update and Economic Statement, Aug. 2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Market Outlook Calgary CMA, Fall 2013 CMHC Rental Market Report, Fall 2013 30 CREB ® 2014 Economic Outlook Regional Market Forecast
  30. 30. Jerry Charlton - Remax Realty Professionals 403 831 0842 CREB® is a professional body of more than 5,000 licensed brokers and registered associates, representing 277 member offices. CREB® is dedicated to enhancing the value, integrity and expertise of its REALTOR® members. We are committed to equipping our members with the right tools, services and education to achieve professional excellence — and, in turn, enabling REALTORS® to offer the best possible service to their clients. Our REALTORS® are committed to a high standard of professional conduct, ongoing education, and a strict Code of Ethics and standards of business practice. Using the services of a professional REALTOR® can help consumers take full advantage of real estate opportunities while reducing their risks when buying or selling real estate. CREB® operates and maintains the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) System for Calgary and the surrounding area. Through the MLS® System, members and, in turn, their clients have immediate access to the latest information on properties listed for sale. Through the MLS® System, REALTORS® can provide the buying and selling public with the broadest possible market exposure and the most complete and up-to-date market information. Copyright ©2014 CREB®. All rights reserved. CREB® grants reasonable rights of use of this publication’s content solely for personal, corporate or public policy research, and educational purposes. This permission consists of the right to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results, conclusions and forecasts, including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication. Reasonable and limited rights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria, and CREB®’s right to request that such use be discontinued for any reason. Any use of the publication’s content must include the source of the information, including statistical data, acknowledged as follows: CREB® 2014 Economic Outlook and Calgary Regional Housing Market Forecast. 300 Manning Road NE Calgary, Alberta T2E 8K4, Canada Phone: 403-263-0530 Fax: 403-218-3688 Email: info@creb.com creb.com crebforecast.com crebnow.com

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