Korea talk on emerging technology and ideas for Korea's new creative economy policy


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Korea talk on emerging technology and ideas for Korea's new creative economy policy

  1. 1. EmergingTechnologies and Creative Economy United Graduate School of Science andTechnology June 20, 2013 Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project
  2. 2. Wise to invest in a diverse set of new creative economic activities (not Panda Bear) • Internet of things • Increasing intelligence • 3-D Printing • Synthetic Biology • Nanotechnology • Retrofitting buildings for energy production • Continue robotic manufacturing • One-Person Businesses (massive training programs)
  3. 3. Next Mega Trend: Conscious-Technology When the distinction between these two trends becomes blurred, we will have reached the Post-Information Age HUMANS BECOMING CYBORGS BUILT ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INTELLIGENT 1985 2000 2015 2030
  4. 4. Age / Element Product Power Wealth Place War Time Agricultural Extraction Food/Res Religion Land Earth/Res Location Cyclical Industrial Machine Nation-State Capital Factory Resources Linear Information Info/serv Corporation Access Office Perception Flexible Conscious-Technology Linkage Individual Being Motion Identity Invented Simplification/Generalization of History and an Alternative Future
  5. 5. Synthetic Biology… the next Revolution
  6. 6. Synthetic Biology
  7. 7. Nanotechnology
  8. 8. Internet ofThings – Ubiquitous Computing
  9. 9. Integration of jewelry and the Internet of things
  10. 10. 브록 힌즈만 , business futures SRI 3-D Printing
  11. 11. 3D 프린터로 체스 프린트 중인 박여욱유엔미래포럼대표
  12. 12. 3-D Printing the base of a chess piece
  13. 13. The 3D-printed titanium lower mandible implant
  14. 14. Augmented Reality
  15. 15. Augmented Reality
  16. 16. Google does it again!
  17. 17. 터키 유엔미래포럼대표 홀로그람 연설 중 , 바크 세계미래포 럼 중
  18. 18. Retrofitting buildings to produce Energy UCLA: Widows can have very thin film to make electricity new photovoltaic capacities
  19. 19. Computational Science Computational biology Computational Chemistry Computational Physics All Accelerate with Moore’s Law
  20. 20. Ifthen Nano- technology Synthetic Biology Internet of Things 3D Printing Conscious- Technology Augmented Reality Nano- technology xxx Synthetic Biology xxx Internet of Things xxx 3D Printing xxx Conscious- Technology xxx Augmented Reality xxx Emerging Technologies Table
  21. 21. Creative Industries…. for what? • For arts? • For media? • For entertainment? • Yes, that is part of it, but also creativity to address the 15 Global Challenges • Businesses grow and survive that address real challenges – especially long-term challenges
  22. 22. 15 Global Challenges: A Framework for Understanding Global Change, and an Agenda for Humanity Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? Challenge 2: How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? Challenge 3: How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? Challenge 4: How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? Challenge 5: How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? Challenge 6: How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? Challenge 7: How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? Challenge 8: How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? Challenge 9: How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change? Challenge 10: How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction? Challenge 11: How can the changing status of women improve the human condition? Challenge 13: How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? Challenge 14: How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? Challenge 15: How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? Challenge 12: How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?
  23. 23. 32 Seeds of the Future of Arts, Media, and Entertainment Cross-Impact these 32 seeds to see what new creative industries are possible
  24. 24. The Creative Economy… not Catch-up Economy • Requires cultural/perceptual changes – Silicon Valley example of boss and employee – Google example of 20% paid free time – pools of creativity – Finding markets worldwide vs. finding jobs where you live • Builds on all South Koreans having Internet access with the processing power of a human brain before 2020 and many more brains per person after that. • Acts with Internet of things, and nanotech sensor nets • Increases the changes from searching for a job, to searching for markets around the world for individual’s capabilities. • Changes market as the center to attract people to physical location to each person as the center for a 2 billion person set of markets today, but 9 billion/person in 37 years.
  25. 25. Creative Economy Management 1. Hierarchy 2. Networks 3. Intersection of Networks: Nodes 4. Connecting Nodes into Fields of Play 5. Connecting Fields of Play
  26. 26. One-Person Businesses Find markets around the world for what you are interested in doing not non-existing jobs
  27. 27. Futures Research and the Miracle of South Korea’s Development President Park Chung Hee Herman Kahn, inventor of scenarios for policy, talked through development strategies with Pres. Park over years and many visits
  28. 28. 허먼 칸과 박정희 잦은 만남 사진출처 : 민주화기념사업회 07/18/13 박영숙 ( 사 ) 유엔미래포럼 30
  29. 29. Some Elements of Next Economic System • Capitalist and socialist/communist systems are early industrial age economic systems • Emerging new economic system, adapted to the globalized world and knowledge economy • Assessing some future elements of the next global economy • 35 elements (not policies, events, developments, or goals) that might help shape the next economic system over the next 20 years: – rated as to their importance to improving the human condition – potential positive and negative impacts’ descriptions – analysis of levels of agreement
  30. 30. Top 10 Most Beneficial Elements by 2030 Elements Imp Resp Agr. 1 Ethics: a key element in economic exchanges 8.36 168 0.86 2 New GDP definitions that include all forms of national wealth 7.96 164 0.78 3 Small tax on use of commons directed to global public goods 7.75 172 0.83 4 Collective intelligence: global commons for the knowledge economy 7.74 155 0.88 5 Continuously updated education on the evolving economic system and its elements 7.64 154 0.83 6 Simultaneous knowing – time lags changed or eliminated in information dissemination with much greater transparency. 7.61 168 0.79 7 Value of natural resources used in production included in pricing 7.56 162 0.76 8 Women’s political-economic roles essentially on par with men 7.25 182 0.68 9 Increased public disclosure of "tax havens", secret accounts 7.10 153 0.68 10 Wealth, re-defined as experience and not the accumulation of money or physical things 6.83 161 0.62
  31. 31. Some other Interesting Elements • Simultaneous knowing – time lags changed or eliminated in information dissemination with much greater transparency. • Non-ownership, as distinct from private ownership or collective/state ownership (e.g. current open source software) • Alternatives to continuously creating artificial demand and growth • One-Person Business - Self-employment via the Internet— individuals seek markets for their abilities rather than jobs
  32. 32. Future of Education is Increasing Intelligence: both Individual and Collective Intelligence
  33. 33. How to increase Individual Intelligence 1. Responding to feedback 2. Consistency of love, diversity of environment 3. Nutrition 4. Reasoning exercises 5. Believing it is possible (placebo effect) 6. Contact with intelligent people or via VR simulations 7. Software systems and gaming 8. Neuro-pharmacology (enhanced brain chemistry) 9. Memes on classroom walls and else where, for example: intelligence is sexy 10. Low stress, stimulating environments, with certain music, color, fragrances improves concentration and performance 11. Longer term: 1. Reverse engineering the brain (President Obama) 2. Applied Epigenetics and genetic engineering 3. Designer microbes to eat the plaque on neurons
  34. 34. How to Increase Collective Intelligence • It emerges from the integration and synergies among • data/info/knowledge • software/hardware • experts and others with insight • that continually learns from feedback • to produce just in time knowledge for better decisions • than these elements acting alone.
  35. 35. Why theTransition to CIS? • The velocity, volume, and complexity of change and challenges are increasing exponentially • Some local issues depend on global developments • The amount of information and data is exploding • Our work shows that humanity has the resources to address the challenges ahead • Will we make the necessary decisions? • We believe collective intelligence used by trans-Institutional networks can help
  36. 36. An Application of Collective Intelligence: Global Futures Intelligence System at www.themp.org
  37. 37. Global Challenge Menu in GFIS 1. Situation Chart: Current Situation; Desired Situation; and Policies 2. Report (detailed text) on the challenge from State of the Future 3. News items (automatic news feeds – searchable) 4. Scanning (annotated, rated information) 5. On-going Delphi questionnaires to collect expert judgments 6. Public comments 7. Discussion groups 8. Computer models (mathematical and rules-based), and conceptual models 9. Resources: websites, books, papers, videos 10. Updates – all edits 11. Digests – Recent scans, edits, discussions
  38. 38. Annual subscriptions to the Global Futures System Corporations $2,100/year 10 users $25/per additional user Universities 400/year 10 users $25/per additional use Individual 99/year 1 user Online subscription at: http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/GFIS.html
  39. 39. Wise to invest in a diverse set of new creative economic activities (not Panda Bear) • Internet of things • Increasing intelligence • 3-D Printing • Synthetic Biology • Nanotechnology • Retrofitting buildings for energy production • Continue robotic manufacturing • One-Person Businesses (massive training programs)
  40. 40. … May become a TransInstitution The Millennium Project
  41. 41. Purposes of the Millennium Project • Create a global and on-going capacity to improve thinking about the future • Make that thinking available through a variety of media for consideration in • policymaking • advanced training • educational curricula • public education • Continually respond to feedback, to accumulate wisdom about potential futures
  42. 42. 49 Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in: Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
  43. 43. 25 years ago there was no World Wide Web. 25 years from now: What will be emerging? And from what?
  44. 44. For further information Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project 4421 Garrison Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016 USA +1-202-686-5179 phone/fax Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org www.StateoftheFuture.org www.themp.org (Global Futures Intelligence System)