Global Future Changes and Millennium Project
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Global Future Changes and Millennium Project

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Overview of global challenges, strategies, new technologies to improve the prospects for humanity from the Millennium Project and its annual State of the Future report

Overview of global challenges, strategies, new technologies to improve the prospects for humanity from the Millennium Project and its annual State of the Future report

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    Global Future Changes and Millennium Project Global Future Changes and Millennium Project Presentation Transcript

    • 2009 State of the Future January 13, 2010 Jerome Glenn, Executive Director The Millennium Project www.millennium-project.org
    • Change over the last 25 years will appear slow, compared to the next 25 years.
    • Just 25 years ago, there were no
      • Personal computers with instant information access via Internet around the world
      • User-generated content and international computer collaboration
      • Cell phones and digital cameras
      • Few had heard of global warming
      • AIDS
      • And most believed WWIII with the USSR was inevitable
    • What’s possible in next 25 years?
      • Lines of genetic code written like software code – hydrogen from photosynthesis; microbes to eat plaque in the brain
      • Connecting everything than can be connected: Smart Socks
      • “ TransInstutions” using synergetic analysis instead of completive analysis
      • “ Open source” economies
      • Cities managed as urban systems ecologies - nonotechnology factories at coal power plants
      • Solar Power Satellites – Japan’s national objective
      • Electric cars majority (17 year fleet turnover) with Bolivia lead Lithium Cartel like OPEC
      • Dramatically increasing individual intelligence and global collective intelligence gives “Just-in-Time” knowledge
      • Global brain(s) emerging from Internet …evolving into Conscious-Technology
    • Conscious-Technology ( Post- Information Age) When the distinction between these two trends becomes blurred, we will have reached the Post -Information Age BUILT ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INTELLIGENT HUMANS BECOMING CYBORGS 1985 2000 2015 2030
    • 25 Years from Now: What will be emerging? And from what?
    • Millennium Project … May become a TransInstitution UN Organizations NGOs Universities Governments Corporations
    • 33 Millennium Project Nodes... … are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views around the world:
        • Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
      • Print – 88 Pages
      • Executive Summary
      • Global Challenges
      • State of the Future Index
      • Next Economic Elements
      • Futures Methodology
      • Environmental Security
      • CD – 6,700 Pages
      • All the research details of the past 13 years
    • Both Futures Research Methods and Content
    • Sample of some items from the 2009 State of the Future:
      • There are more Internet users in China than people in the USA
      • March 2009 an asteroid missed the Earth by 77,000 kilometers, which is 80% closer to the earth than the moon. None knew it was coming.
      • China could pass US Economy by 2030, assuming it does not break up (water, income gaps, energy, separatist Muslim region).
      • World pop – 6.78 billion (June 2009) and growing at 1.14% per year (1.16% last year); hi, mid, low projections for 2050 - 10.5, 9.2, 8.0 billion, and than falls without longevity breakthroughs;
      • Industrial countries fertility rates UP from 1.35 projected in 2006 to 1.64
      • 7% annual growth in developing countries over past 5 years, to drop to 3% for 2009 – still 2-3 billion people living on $2 or less per day.
    • Some more items from the 2009 State of the Future:
      • World recession lowers State of the Future Index for 10 years
      • Press freedoms are continuing to decline
      • Half the world continues to be vulnerable to instability and violence
          • World recession
          • Rising prices of food and energy and fertilizer
          • Scarcity of water and food
          • Falling water tables, drying rivers
          • Desertification
          • Climate change
          • Failing states
          • Political, economic, and environmental migrations
      • Some potential elements of the next economic system
    • Some Elements of the Emerging Global Economic System to improve the human condition by 2030
      • With increasing global interdependence and the speed of change, even greater economic disasters may be possible than the one the world is experiencing today.
      • Capitalism, socialism, and communism are early industrial age systems.
      • What are some future elements of the next global economy from which the next system might emerge?
      • 35 such elements/attractors were identified and rated as to how important they were to the he human condition
      • Both numeric ratings and descriptions of how they could have positive and negative impacts
    • Top 10 Most Beneficial Element Elements over next 20 years Import Resp Agree 1 Ethics: a key element in economic exchanges 8.36 168 0.86 2 GDP definitions that include all forms of national wealth 7.96 164 0.78 3 Small tax on use of commons directed to global public goods 7.75 172 0.83 4 Collective intelligence: global commons for the knowledge economy 7.74 155 0.88 5 Education in the evolving economic system and its elements 7.64 154 0.83 6 Simultaneous knowing – time lags changed or eliminated in information dissemination with much greater transparency. 7.61 168 0.79 7 Value of natural resources used in production included in pricing 7.56 162 0.76 8 Women’s political-economic roles essentially on par with men 7.25 182 0.68 9 Increased disclosure of "tax havens" , secret accounts 7.10 153 0.68 10 Wealth, re-defined as experience and not the accumulation of money or physical things 6.83 161 0.62
    • Most Controversial – bimodal distribution:
      • Global mechanisms for automatic financial stabilization; e.g., international convention for an automated system (expert software) to make financial policy changes as economic conditions change, conducted initially in larger economic countries
      • Single global currency
      • Artificial life—as computers were a key element in the information economy, so too artificial life might be a key to the next economy
      • Internationalization of labor unions
      • Labels on financial instruments, something like nutrition labels on food.
    • Some other interesting elements
      • Simultaneous knowing – time lags changed or eliminated in information dissemination with much greater transparency.
      • Non-ownership , as distinct from private ownership or collective/state ownership. A current example is open source software.
      • Alternatives to continuously creating artificial demand and growth
      • Self-employment via the Internet —Individuals seek markets for their abilities rather than jobs
    • How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? 1 How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? 2 How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? 3 How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? 4 How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? 5 How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? 6 How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? 7 How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? 8 How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change? 9 How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction? 10 How can the changing status of women improve the human condition? 11 How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? 12 How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? 13 How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? 14 How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? 15 How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change? How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction? How can the changing status of women improve the human condition? How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? 15 Global Challenges–the Agenda today
    • Collective Intelligence
      • It is an emergent property
      • from synergies among
          • data/info/knowledge
          • software/hardware
          • experts
      • that continually learns from feedback
      • to produce (nearly) just in time knowledge for better decisions
      • than these elements acting alone.
      • The collective intelligence to support the Situation Room will have four elements :
      • Climate Science
      • Energy
      • Mitigation
      • Adaptation
      • For further information
      • Jerome C. Glenn
      • The Millennium Project
      • 4421 Garrison Street, NW,
      • Washington, D.C. 20016 USA
      • +1-202-686-5179 phone/fax
      • [email_address]
      • WEB 1.0 www.StateoftheFuture.org
      • WEB 2.0 www.mpcollab.org
      • SecondLife http://slurl.com/secondlife/Pearl%20Beach/148/69/701