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The Real Deal Seminar 2014 - January 28, 2014
 

The Real Deal Seminar 2014 - January 28, 2014

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Slides from speakers Dr. Stephen Fuller and Mr. Anirban Basu from the program held on January 28, 2014 at the Mt. Washington Conference Center.

Slides from speakers Dr. Stephen Fuller and Mr. Anirban Basu from the program held on January 28, 2014 at the Mt. Washington Conference Center.

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  • http://us.spindices.com/index-family/us-equity/sector-industry Index Family -> Equity, U.S. … Open each sector and “Export” to get historical data.
  • *We have the Fed Reserve Balance Sheet data points for 12/25 and 1/1 but there was no trading on those days so we don’t have S&P data points. How to handle this?Through 12/18/2013Should we convert this to a line graph?Fed balance-weekly-wednesdaysReserve Bank credit is the sum of securities held outright, repurchase agreements, term auction credit, other loans, net portfolio holdings of Commercial Paper Funding Facility LLC, net portfolio holdings of LLCs funded through the Money Market Investor Funding Facility, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane II LLC, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane III LLC, float, central bank liquidity swaps, and other Federal Reserve assets.
  • http://bls.gov/bls/shutdown_2013_cps_ces.htm
  • October 2013 PreliminarySeries ID are in excel linked to chartMD Total Nonfarm: SMS24000000000000001US Total Nonfarm (SA): CES0000000001MD LAUS (SA): LASST24000005
  • Series ID are in excel linked to chartBaltimore MSA Total Nonfarm: SMU24125800000000001US Total Nonfarm (SA): CES0000000001
  • Series ID are in excel linked to chartDC MSA Total Nonfarm: SMU11479000000000001US Total Nonfarm (SA): CES0000000001
  •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
  • August 2013 preliminaryLASST01000003LASST02000003LASST04000003LASST05000003LASST06000003LASST08000003LASST09000003LASST10000003LASST11000003LASST12000003LASST13000003LASST15000003LASST16000003LASST17000003LASST18000003LASST19000003LASST20000003LASST21000003LASST22000003LASST23000003LASST24000003LASST25000003LASST26000003LASST27000003LASST28000003LASST29000003LASST30000003LASST31000003LASST32000003LASST33000003LASST34000003LASST35000003LASST36000003LASST37000003LASST38000003LASST39000003LASST40000003LASST41000003LASST42000003LASST44000003LASST45000003LASST46000003LASST47000003LASST48000003LASST49000003LASST50000003LASST51000003LASST53000003LASST54000003LASST55000003LASST56000003
  • Please make sure all unemployment rates have the same number of decimals (ex. 8.0 rather than just 8)http://www.bls.gov/lau/Tables: Unemployment Rates for Large Metropolitan Areas
  • Please make sure all unemployment rates have the same number of decimals (ex. 8.0 rather than just 8)
  • *Through 1/16/2014
  • http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/
  • http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
  • *MUST START AT AUGUST 2007
  • EMP: Electromagnetic Pulsehttp://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/2013/07/26/missiles-intercepted-on-north-korean-freighter-prompt-fresh-warnings-from-electromagnetic-pulse-experts/

The Real Deal Seminar 2014 - January 28, 2014 The Real Deal Seminar 2014 - January 28, 2014 Presentation Transcript

  • REAL DEAL 2014 The Post-Federally Dependent Washington Area Economy Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University January 28, 2014
  • The U.S. Economy’s Current Performance and Outlook
  • U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2015 % 6 Forecast > > > > 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight January 6, 2014 2013 2014 2015
  • U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Dec 2012 – Dec 2013 Ranked by Size in 2013 Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information -600 Total = 2,186 (000s) 327 54 637 381 390 77 84 153 95 30 42 -79 -4 -400 -200 0 200 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 400 600
  • U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Nov 2013 – Dec 2013 Ranked by Size in 2013 Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information -100 Total = 74 (000s) 0 -11 19 55 9 9 4 -12 15 1 -2 -2 -12 -50 0 50 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 100
  • U.S. Unemployment Rate % 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Dec = 6.7 GI FCST 13 – 7.4 14 – 6.5 15 – 5.9 16 – 5.4 17 – 5.1 18 – 5.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Global Insight January 6, 2014
  • Interest Rates 2001 - 2018 Forecast > > > > 8 7 6 30-Yr 5 10-Yr Treas Fed 4 3 2 1 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Source: IHS Global Insight January 6, 2014 2011 2013 2015 2017
  • U.S. Economic Performance % 20 Forecast > > > > 15 10 5 GDP Residential Fixed Non-Res: Structures State & Local Federal Bus. Inv.-Eq & Sfwr 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight January 6, 2014
  • The Washington Economy: Impacts of the Recession and Sequester
  • The Washington Area Economy Experienced Structural Change During the Recession Changing Federal Spending Policies Have Resulted in Additional Major Changes in the Washington Area Economy
  • Recession Impacts • GRP declined 0.8% in 2008 • The region’s lost 178,100 jobs Sequester+ Impacts • Federal procurement $s down by 11.8% • There are 21,200 fewer federal jobs • Federal payroll is down 4.8% or by $2 billion
  • Federal Government Washington MSA (000s) Annual Data 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 2008 Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan 2005 2002 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot 2012 = 377,400
  • WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Aug 2008-Feb 2010 (000s) Total -178 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Feb 2010-Nov 2013 Total 212 43 -23 Educ & Health Svcs 40 Retail Trade -23 Leisure & Hosp. 34 -34 Construction 56 -48 14 Other Services -8 Financial 8 -10 Information 11 -12 Manufacturing 0 -10 Wlse Trade 0 -7 Transp. & Util. 0 -4 -60 -40 -20 Feb 10 to Nov 12 Nov 12 to Nov 13 6 0 0 20 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 40 60
  • WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008 Professional & Business Services As measured in November of each year (000s) 25 Prof & Bus Svcs 20 15 Prof, Sci & Tech Svcs 10 5 Management 0 -5 Admin & Waste Mgt Nov-13 Nov-12 Nov-11 Nov-10 Nov-09 -15 Aug-08 Nov-08 -10 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008 Education & Health Services As measured in November of each year (000s) 70 60 Health & Educ Svcs 50 Educ. Svcs 40 Health Svcs 30 20 Ambulatory Health Svcs 10 Hospitals Nov-13 Nov-12 Nov-11 Nov-10 Nov-09 -10 Aug-08 Nov-08 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008 Leisure & Hospitality As measured in November of each year (000s) 40 Leisure & Hospitality 30 20 Food & Drinking Places 10 0 Accommodation -10 Arts & Rec Nov-13 Nov-12 Nov-11 Nov-10 Nov-09 -30 Aug-08 Nov-08 -20 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008 Financial Activities As measured in November of each year (000s) 8 Financial Activities 6 4 2 Finance & Insurance 0 -2 Real Estate & Leasing -4 -6 Credit & Related Nov-13 Nov-12 Nov-11 Nov-10 Nov-09 -10 Aug-08 Nov-08 -8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008 Construction, Mfg, Info & Other Services As measured in November of each year (000s) 0 Other Services -5 -10 Manufacturing -15 -20 Information Svcs -25 -30 Construction Nov-13 Nov-12 Nov-11 Nov-10 Nov-09 -40 Aug-08 Nov-08 -35 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008 Trade, Transportation & Utilities As measured in November of each year (000s) 15 Retail 10 5 Department Stores 0 Transportation & Utilities -5 Nov-13 Nov-12 Nov-11 Nov-10 Nov-09 Aug-08 Nov-08 -10 Wholesale Trade Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Washington Metropolitan Area Job Change by Wage Category between 2008 to 2013 Higher-Wage Mid-Wage Lower Wage (000s) (60) (40) (20) 0 2008-2009 Sources: EMSI 2013.3 & GMU Center for Regional Analysis 20 40 2010-2013 60 80
  • The Current Baseline for the Region’s Future Growth: What Are the Current Trends?
  • (000s) 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Nov 2012 – Nov 2013 250 200 Washington +24,100 150 100 50 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Job Change by Sector Nov 2012 – Nov 2013 Washington MSA (000s) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. (20.0) Total = 24,100 0 -10 2 6 4 16 -1 0 7 -2 0 -2 3 (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 30.0
  • Job Change by Sector Oct 2013 – Nov 2013 Washington MSA (000s) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. (20.0) Total = 11,600 1 -2 1 3 8 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 3 (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 30.0
  • Annual Job Change District of Columbia, 2002-2013 (000s) Annual Data 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 2009 Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2008 2005 2002 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2013
  • Job Change by Sector Oct 2013 – Nov 2013 District of Columbia (000s) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. (20.0) Total -1,200 1 -2 0 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 30.0
  • Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland, 2002-2013 (000s) Annual Data 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 2009 Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2008 2005 2002 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2013
  • Job Change by Sector Oct 2013 – Nov 2013 Suburban Maryland (000s) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. (20.0) Total 4,800 0 0 1 1 3 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 30.0
  • Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, 2002-2013 (000s) Annual Data 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 2009 Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2008 2005 2002 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2013
  • Job Change by Sector Oct 2013 – Nov 2013 Northern Virginia (000s) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. (20.0) Total 8,200 -1 0 1 2 5 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 30.0
  • Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, 2006-2013 12 10 8 7.3 – DC 7.0 – U.S. 6 5.3 – SMD 4.9 – MSA 4 4.0 - NVA 2 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)
  • Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area: 2013-2018
  • Washington Metropolitan Area and U.S. Economic Growth 2012-2018 (annual percent real change) Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 WMSA 1.28 1.26 2.65 3.56 3.40 3.42 3.28 U.S. 2.8 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 2001 – 2013 – 2018 % 6 Washington 4 U.S. 2 0 -2 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -4 Source: IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 14.1 5.6 4.4 4.8 20.7 18.1 22.7 20.0 14.3 12.2 No. VA 26.4 23.5 14.6 32.2 31.8 36.8 35.0 30.3 REGION 42.6 32.2 37.5 60.2 66.1 66.4 56.2 47.4 D.C. Sub. MD 1.9 9.7 11.3 9.3 Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV. 6.5 4.6
  • Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu
  • Back to the Future Part II On Behalf of The Real Deal Seminar By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. January 28th, 2014
  • Raging Bull (1980)
  • Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2013 Growth* Rank 4 2 1 6 8 12 5 10 3 9 11 7 Exchange Tokyo SE Nasdaq NYSE Group Frankfurt SE Bolsa De Madrid Swiss Exchange Euronext BorsaItaliana London SE TSX Group Hong Kong Exchanges Shanghai SE Source: Yahoo! Finance *Change from the 2012 close to the 2013 close. Index Nikkei 225 NASDAQ Composite DJI A DAX Madrid General Swiss Market CAC 40 FTSE MIB FTSE 100 S&P TSX Composite Hang Seng Index Shanghai Composite % Change 56.7% 38.3% 26.5% 25.5% 21.4% 20.2% 18.0% 16.6% 12.0% 9.6% 2.9% -6.8%
  • S&P Select Sector Performance 12-Month Percent Change as of December 31st, 2013 41.0% Consumer Discretionary 38.7% Health Care 33.2% Financials 37.6% Industrials 22.7% Materials Consumer Staples 22.7% Energy 22.3% 26.2% Information Technology 8.8% Utilities 6.5% Telecommunication Services 0% 10% 20% 30% 12-month percent change Source: Standard & Poor’s 40% 50%
  • Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 Index May 2008 – December 2013 FRB Credit Reserve $Trillions 4.3 S&P 500 3.8 3.3 1900 1700 S&P 500 index depicted in orange 1500 1300 2.3 1100 1.8 900 1.3 700 0.8 500 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 2.8 Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance
  • Third Quarter Earnings for Select Corporations Earnings per Share Symbol Q3 2012 FCX VFC BTU MSFT COF DD VZ MMM TXN AMD YHOO $0.68 $3.52 $0.51 $0.60 $2.01 $0.32 $0.64 $1.65 $0.52 -$0.20 $0.35 Source: Yahoo! Finance Q3 2013 Q3 2013 Surprise Estimated Reported $0.62 $3.78 -$0.04 $0.54 $1.80 $0.41 $0.74 $1.75 $0.53 $0.02 $0.33 $0.79 $3.91 $0.05 $0.62 $1.86 $0.45 $0.77 $1.78 $0.56 $0.04 $0.34 $0.17 $0.13 $0.09 $0.08 $0.06 $0.04 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.02 $0.01 Symbol Q3 2012 UTX XRX GE COH UPS MCD HON DOW CMG CAT STI $1.37 $0.25 $0.36 $0.77 $1.06 $1.43 $1.20 $0.42 $2.27 $2.54 $1.98 Q3 2013 Q3 2013 Surprise Estimated Reported $1.54 $0.25 $0.35 $0.76 $1.15 $1.51 $1.24 $0.54 $2.78 $1.67 $0.69 $1.55 $0.26 $0.36 $0.77 $1.16 $1.52 $1.24 $0.50 $2.66 $1.45 $0.33 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.00 -$0.04 -$0.12 -$0.22 -$0.36
  • Industrial Production January 2001 through December 2013 105 Index (2007 = 100) 100 (Base year: 2007) 95 90 85 Jan-01 Jun-01 Nov-01 Apr-02 Sep-02 Feb-03 Jul-03 Dec-03 May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 80 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.
  • 1990Q1 1990Q4 1991Q3 1992Q2 1993Q1 1993Q4 1994Q3 1995Q2 1996Q1 1996Q4 1997Q3 1998Q2 1999Q1 1999Q4 2000Q3 2001Q2 2002Q1 2002Q4 2003Q3 2004Q2 2005Q1 2005Q4 2006Q3 2007Q2 2008Q1 2008Q4 2009Q3 2010Q2 2011Q1 2011Q4 2012Q3 2013Q2 Percent Change from Preceding Period (SAAR) Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2013Q3 8% 6% 2013Q3: 4.1% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q3 2012 – Q3 2013 Q3-12 3.0 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 2.56 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 SAAR (%) 1.4 1.2 1.36 0.5 0.14 0.08 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -1.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -1.3 -1.5 -2.0 Personal Consumption Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Government Spending Net Exports Gross Investment
  • Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q3 2012 – Q3 2013 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 3.5 2.56 2.5 SAAR (%) 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.5 -0.5 -0.4 1.67 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.89 0.9 0.6 0.4 -0.2 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 Gross Investment Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Fixed Investment Private Inventory
  • Ordinary People (1980)
  • Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Thousands Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through December 2013 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 December 2013: +74K -600 -800 -1000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector December 2012 v. December 2013 Professional and Business Services 637 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 517 Leisure and Hospitality 390 Education and Health Services 327 Construction 122 Financial Activities 84 Manufacturing 77 Mining and Logging 31 Other Services 30 Information Government All told 2,186 K Jobs gained -4 -25 -100 0 100 200 300 Thousands, SA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 400 500 600 700
  • Cumulative Job Growth Since December 2007: Full-time v. Part-time December 2007 – December 2013 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 Full-time Part-time -6,000 -8,000 -10,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey Full-time: -4.33 million Part-time: +2.63 million Dec-13 Sep-13 Jun-13 Mar-13 Dec-12 Sep-12 Jun-12 Mar-12 Dec-11 Sep-11 Jun-11 Mar-11 Dec-10 Sep-10 Jun-10 Mar-10 Dec-09 Sep-09 Jun-09 Mar-09 Dec-08 Sep-08 Jun-08 Mar-08 Dec-07 -12,000
  • Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) November 2013 v. November 2012 Absolute Change Professional and Business Services 14,800 Education and Health Services 9,600 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 6,300 Mining, Logging, and Construction 5,600 Other Services 1,400 Government 200 Financial Activities 100 Leisure and Hospitality US Total (SA): +2,293K; +1.7% -1,000 Manufacturing MD Total: +33.5K; +1.3% -1,400 Information -10,000 -2,100 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series MD lost 13,618 jobs between November 2012 and November 2013. 15,000 20,000
  • Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) November 2013 v. November 2012 Absolute Change Education and Health Services 10,000 Professional and Business Services 7,800 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 6,400 Mining, Logging, and Construction 3,300 Financial Activities 2,200 Other Services 1,300 Leisure and Hospitality 900 Information Government Manufacturing -8,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics -600 Baltimore MSA Total: +25.2K; +1.9% MD Total (SA): +33.5K; +1.3% US Total (SA): +2,293K; +1.7% -2,700 -3,400 -3,000 2,000 7,000 12,000
  • Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) November 2013 v. November 2012 Absolute Change Leisure and Hospitality 16,200 Financial Activities 7,000 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 5,100 Education and Health Services 1,900 Other Services 0 Professional and Business Services -200 Manufacturing -200 Mining, Logging, and Construction Information Government -10,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics DC MSA Total: +24.1K; +0.8% -500 US Total (SA): +2,293K; +1.7% -1,700 -3,500 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
  • Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) November 2012 v. November 2013 Percent Change RANK 1 2 2 4 4 6 6 8 9 9 11 12 12 12 12 16 16 STATE NORTH DAKOTA FLORIDA TEXAS GEORGIA IDAHO OREGON UTAH INDIANA COLORADO DELAWARE ARIZONA MISSOURI NEVADA NEW JERSEY SOUTH CAROLINA MASSACHUSETTS MISSISSIPPI % 4.0 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 RANK 18 18 20 20 20 20 20 25 25 25 28 29 29 31 31 31 31 STATE CALIFORNIA SOUTH DAKOTA KANSAS MICHIGAN MINNESOTA NEW YORK WISCONSIN NORTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE WASHINGTON MARYLAND RHODE ISLAND WEST VIRGINIA ARKANSAS LOUISIANA NEBRASKA VERMONT % 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.7% RANK 35 35 35 35 39 40 40 40 43 44 44 46 47 48 48 50 51 STATE CONNECTICUT ILLINOIS MONTANA OKLAHOMA IOWA HAWAII MAINE WYOMING VIRGINIA NEW HAMPSHIRE PENNSYLVANIA OHIO KENTUCKY ALABAMA NEW MEXICO DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA ALASKA % 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 -1.0
  • Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) November 2013 RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE % 1 NORTH DAKOTA 2.6 15 WEST VIRGINIA 6.1 35 NEW YORK 7.4 2 SOUTH DAKOTA 3.6 19 ALABAMA 6.2 35 NORTH CAROLINA 7.4 3 NEBRASKA 3.7 20 LOUISIANA 6.3 35 OHIO 7.4 4 5 UTAH HAWAII 4.3 4.4 20 22 WISCONSIN FLORIDA 6.3 6.4 38 39 ARKANSAS CONNECTICUT 7.5 7.6 5 IOWA 4.4 22 MAINE 6.4 40 GEORGIA 7.7 5 VERMONT 4.4 22 MARYLAND 6.4 41 ARIZONA 7.8 5 WYOMING 4.4 22 NEW MEXICO 6.4 41 NEW JERSEY 7.8 9 MINNESOTA 4.6 26 ALASKA 6.5 43 TENNESSEE 8.1 10 KANSAS 5.1 26 COLORADO 6.5 44 KENTUCKY 8.2 10 NEW HAMPSHIRE 5.1 26 DELAWARE 6.5 45 MISSISSIPPI 8.3 12 MONTANA 5.2 29 WASHINGTON 6.8 46 CALIFORNIA 8.5 13 OKLAHOMA 5.4 30 MASSACHUSETTS 7.1 47 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 8.6 13 VIRGINIA 5.4 30 SOUTH CAROLINA 7.1 48 ILLINOIS 8.7 15 IDAHO 6.1 32 INDIANA 7.3 49 MICHIGAN 8.8 15 MISSOURI 6.1 32 OREGON 7.3 50 NEVADA 9.0 15 TEXAS 6.1 32 PENNSYLVANIA 7.3 50 RHODE ISLAND 9.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: 7.0%
  • Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) November 2013 Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR 1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.0 10 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.3 2 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MDWV Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.9 12 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.5 3 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6 13 3 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6 14 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.7 15 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJDE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 7 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.0 18 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.3 9 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.2 19 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.5 Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.3 20 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 9.4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 15 6.0 17 7.0 7 10 5.8 6.9 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.8 7.0 8.1
  • MD County Unemployment Rates November 2013 Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR 1 Howard County 4.5 13 Garrett County 6.3 1 Montgomery County 4.5 13 Talbot County 6.3 3 Calvert County 5.1 15 Baltimore County 6.4 3 Frederick County 5.1 16 Cecil County 6.6 5 Carroll County 5.2 17 Allegany County 7.0 5 St. Mary's County 5.2 18 Caroline County 7.2 7 Charles County 5.3 19 Washington County 7.3 8 Queen Anne's County 5.4 20 Wicomico County 8.2 8 Anne Arundel County 5.4 21 Dorchester County 9.1 10 Harford County 5.8 21 Baltimore City 9.1 11 Kent County 6.2 23 Somerset County 9.4 11 Prince George's County 6.2 24 Worcester County 14.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Field of Dreams (1989)
  • 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates February 1995 through January 2014 10% 9% 15-yr 8% 30-yr Rate 7% 6% 4.41% 5% 4% 3% Source: Freddie Mac Nov… Ma… Aug… Nov… Feb… Ma… Aug… Nov… Feb… Ma… Aug… Nov… Feb… Ma… Aug… Nov… Feb… Ma… Aug… Nov… Feb… Ma… Aug… Nov… Feb… 1% Feb… 3.45% 2%
  • U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through November 2013 1,600 Thousands, SAAR 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau November 2013 464K
  • 0 Jan… Jun… No… Ap… Sep… Feb… Jul-… De… Ma… Oc… Ma… Au… Jan… Jun… No… Ap… Sep… Feb… Jul-… De… Ma… Oc… Ma… Au… Jan… Jun… No… Ap… Sep… Feb… Jul-11 De… Ma… Oc… Ma… Au… Thousands, SAAR U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through November 2013 2,500 1 Unit Source: Census Bureau 5 units or more 2,000 1,500 1,000 500
  • S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros October 2013, 12-Month Percentage Change 30% 27.1% 24.6% 12-Month % Change 25% 22.1% 20% 15.8% 13.6% 15% 10% 7.4% 4.9% 5% 0% Source: Standard & Poor’s 8.6% 9.5% 9.7% 10.9% 17.3% 19.0%
  • Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction+ December 2012 v. December 2013 13.8 14 Dec-12 Dec-13 12 Months of Inventory 13.4 11.0 10 9.1 8 6.2 5.6 6 6.0 5.5 4.7 4 6.6 5.9 5.2 4.3 3.9 3.5 3.1 2 0 Anne Arundel Baltimore City Baltimore County Harford Howard Carroll Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Dec. 2012: 5.0 months; Dec. 2013: 4.9 months Queen Anne's Talbot
  • Area Office Market Statistics 2013 Q4 Area Available SF Direct Vacancy Rate % Q4 2013 Net Absorption SF YTD 2013 Net Absorption SF Avg Asking Rent $/SF/YR City Center 3,170,011 16.65% 60,360 335,742 $20.85 Other Baltimore City 1,193,580 13.82% 9,321 45,314 $20.73 Total City 4,363,591 15.67% 69,681 381,056 $20.82 Southern Metro 4,686,453 13.86% -26,904 289,394 $24.62 Northern Metro 5,377,684 16.18% 54,235 -69,160 $21.67 Total Metro 10,064,137 15.00% 27,331 220,234 $23.04 TOTAL MARKET 14,427,728 15.20% 97,012 601,290 $22.37 Source: MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services
  • Area Flex Industrial Market Statistics 2013 Q4 Area Available SF Annapolis 731,655 Arbutus 386,793 Balt County East 411,323 Baltimore City 995,539 BW Corridor 2,291,123 Carroll 234,120 Harford/ Cecil 475,751 I-83 Corridor 389,178 Reisterstown Road 605,036 Woodlawn/ Catonsville 383,821 TOTAL MARKET 6,904,339 Source: MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services Direct Vacancy Rate % Q4 2013 Net Absorption SF YTD 2013 Net Absorption SF Avg Asking Rent $/SF/YR 7% 15% 10% 14% 8% 16% 17% 5% 17% 9% 10% -50,632 33,065 10,554 28,183 100,236 7,500 12,440 -43,129 -12,478 -9,731 76,008 -48,480 14,848 111,226 74,831 306,991 24,322 35,666 28,891 -12,977 -46,703 488,615 $16.13 $7.95 $11.46 $7.87 $11.90 $8.76 $10.21 $10.74 $10.42 $9.87 $10.99
  • Area Warehouse Industrial Market Statistics 2013 Q4 Area Available SF Annapolis 790,010 Arbutus 1,090,330 Balt County East 4,704,779 Baltimore City 6,867,140 BW Corridor 7,819,752 Carroll 1,048,368 Harford/ Cecil 2,719,817 I-83 Corridor 396,669 Reisterstown Road 215,341 Woodlawn/ Catonsville 305,327 TOTAL MARKET 25,957,533 Source: MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services Direct Vacancy Rate % Q4 2013 Net Absorption SF YTD 2013 Net Absorption SF Avg Asking Rent $/SF/YR 6.50% 10.95% 11.95% 7.57% 11.34% 9.70% 4.08% 6.24% 3.07% 10.30% 8.52% 18,312 36,489 191,292 242,409 267,567 59,518 259,071 41,205 -4,300 -116,190 995,373 232,328 52,268 -91,882 -8,134 399,917 287,856 1,700,435 -151,207 -70,999 -104,892 2,245,690 $6.44 $4.63 $4.11 $4.34 $5.28 $4.23 $4.43 $7.77 $7.50 $4.04 $4.74
  • The Shining (1980)
  • Source: Conference Board Nov-13 Aug-13 May-13 Feb-13 Nov-12 Aug-12 May-12 Feb-12 -1.0% Nov-11 Aug-11 May-11 Feb-11 Nov-10 Aug-10 May-10 Feb-10 Nov-09 Aug-09 May-09 Feb-09 Nov-08 Aug-08 May-08 Feb-08 Nov-07 Aug-07 One-month Percent Change Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through November 2013 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% November 2013 = 98.3 where 2004=100 -1.5%
  • Coming to America (1988) • Economy gained momentum over the course of last year; • Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like housing and autos; • The current year is associated with greater certainty regarding federal budgeting and monetary policy – that helps; • The world is not perfect - black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP; • Healthcare reform could slow full-time hiring over the course of the year; and • Further evidence of Maryland’s economic and demographic under-performance.
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