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Mobile 2009, 2010 and beyond
 

Mobile 2009, 2010 and beyond

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A review of the Australian mobile landscape with a look to some European stats as a clue as to what might be happening next. ...

A review of the Australian mobile landscape with a look to some European stats as a clue as to what might be happening next.

Also, some predications for the future of mobile - 2010 and beyond.

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    Mobile 2009, 2010 and beyond Mobile 2009, 2010 and beyond Presentation Transcript

    • AIMIA Digital Summit 2009
      The Rise of Mobile
      An overview of 2009, beyond the hype and some thoughts on the future
    • 2009 – key learnings
      Mobile internet -> mobile apps
      The iPhone provides new business
      And a new business model
      Mobile advertising – muted promise
      GFC retreat to conservatism
      Advertising fears the loss of its audience
      To varied and diverse devices
      Entertainment fear the loss of its funding
      And looks to some new models
    • Where are we now?
      24.5m mobile handsets (113% penetration)*
      3G handsets – est 12m** or almost 50%
      Double that of a year ago
      The iPhone phenomena
      35m sold globally, about 1.8% all handsets, Blackberry about 2%
      Nokia, Sony Ericsson and Samsung still lead***
      800,000 in Australia**
      Another 250,000 iPod Touch devices use mobile products and service
      Representing about 4.5% of handsets
      But around 30-35% of all data/apps/access
      Mobile internet use: almost 10m active monthly users (40%)***
      Half of these estimated to be daily
      * Telsyte research ** Industry best guess *** AMPLI Survey
    • The market is broad
      Is it worth the bother?
      24.6m mobiles
      12m 3G handsets
      20% 2G are smartphones
      4.5% iPhone/iTouch
      Addressable market: 15.5m
    • Different Services Different Demographics
      Younger: create ringtones, use social networking, listen to music (web 2.0 type services).
      Mobile internet services (browsing, apps and e-mail) skew 65-70% male.
      Mobile content (games and ringtones) more even gender split
      MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March 09 across EU5 (UK, DE, FR, ES + IT) - N= 70,964
    • Too many devices (1491 EU)
      Top 6 devices represent 12.3% of mobile media users, top 20 devices – 26.1%.
      Apple starting to challenge Nokia’s long dominance however still represent just 5% of mobile media users vs Nokia’s 36%.
      Sony Ericsson represent 17% of media users.
      Samsung also represent 17% of media users.
      MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March 09 Country: EU5 (UK, DE, FR, ES + IT) - N= 70,964
    • Top Apps (Comscore EU study)
      62.6% of iPhone 3G users have used an app in a month and momentum is growing. 6 months ago 51% of iPhone owners used an app for news and info.
      In comparison 21% of Nokia N95 and 37% of Blackberry Storm use an app.
      Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March 09 EU5 (UK, DE, FR, ES + IT) - N= 70,964
    • Internet = Information Snacking
      Local information also prominent, e.g. maps, movie listings, business directories, traffic , etc
      Transactional services starting to emerge – e.g. Auction Sites
      The combination of local services and transactions will bring about new business models.
      Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March 09 EU5 (UK, DE, FR, ES + IT) - N= 70,964
    • Top Information Services (Aus)
      48% of respondents used an information service of some sort - up 30% on a year ago
      Most services used at least once a month, with news and weather most frequent use
      Expectation of future use is high, with 30% growth expected next year also
      Source: Australia Mobile Phone Lifestyle Index Survey (AIMIA) 2009
    • Hype or future gazing?
      Mobile advertising will take off
      But is still likely to be 18 – 24 months away
      The PC internet indicates (but mobile will grow faster)
      Mobile is unlikely to be the preferred screen in Australia
      But it will be increasingly used as the ‘now’ or first device
      We will move internet habits to the mobile
      Large, touch screen devices
      Targeting will make services (and advertising) more relevant to us
      And this will make it more useful
      Advertising models from the Internet will not necessarily translate to mobile
      We need to start looking forward and not backwards
    • IAB Mobile Ad 2008 - £28.6 million
      50% from search, 50% from display (banners and text links, tenancy, pre / post roll, etc)
      Comparisons can be made with the first PC internet ad spend data from 1998:
      In 1998 there was an average of 7.3 million PC internet users and ad spend was £19.4m
      In 2008 there was an average of 9.5 million mobile internet users * and ad spend £28.6m
      The mobile internet has slightly more ad revenue per user than the PC internet 10 years ago
      Source: IAB Mobile Ad Spend Study 2008/Product: MobiLens Data: Ending Dec 2008 (UK)
      * Mobile Internet Users defined as those who browse or use an application for news, info or social networks.
    • The future in mobile
      We talk about internet on a small screen….
      But there’s much more to this
      Mobile offers :
      The first personal mass media channel
      Always with us, always on
      Location awareness
      Built in payment channel
      Creative tool for UGC (video, text & image)
      Near-perfect audience data
      Able to capture the social context of media
      Proactive communication tool
      Based upon Tomi Ahonen – Mobile as the 7th Mass Media
    • Starting to look forward
      The (PC) internet took off with the advent of broadband and decent speeds
      3G is showing us the same thing
      Operators without decent data plans are hurting themselves and the market
      Users without decent data plans have lower satisfaction scores and 40% plan on churning
      Mobile usage and services are growing
      There is no cannibalisation (yet) – just growth
      And a hunger for more and better services
      Apps are showing us that mobile is more than internet
      A new device with new opportunities
    • Key reasons to be mobile
      Most ubiquitous device (ever)
      Responded to very quickly (96% SMS read in <20 mins)
      On 24 x 7, nearby and accessed often
      Communication, content and utility
      Response to mobile advertising incredible:
      3% - 7% response rate
      10% - 20% conversation rate
      6 times the ROI on mobile compared to other forms
      We talk about ‘conversation’ – this needs to happen seamless and consistently across all devices
    • When considering mobile services
      Don’t restrict the content
      Just manage the navigation and presentation
      Think of your consumer first
      What will they be doing? Where? Moving?
      Tailor your sites for your audience
      Don’t develop just iPhone
      But question is you should bother with WAP
      Your consumers are cross-platform (online and mobile)
      Allow a single log in for consistent experience
      Personalise, tailor, make unique, deliver
      Remember your customers and show you remember
      Learn from what they do to become more relevant
    • Key things: (0,1,2,3)
      Zero changes to user behaviour
      (don’t make them act differently for you)
      One login
      (remember who they are, regardless of device)
      Two second respond time
      Make it simple, make it clean, make it fast
      Three clicks away (maximum)
      You’ll lose 10% of users for each added level
    • What will 2010 hold?
      Mobile advertising will grow
      Advertisers will look for new engagement
      Augmented reality will become more common
      Great for travel, listings and events
      iPhone will come under greater competition
      New mobile operating systems (PalmOS, Android)
      Handset manufacturers (Nokia, Sony Ericsson)
      More apps and apps stores, for more devices
      Linked cross-media solutions (internet & mobile)
      Based on better subscriber/consumer engagement
      Subscription content? Better mobile TV?
    • Mobile plotting (AR)
    • 2010 and beyond
      mCommerce will become more common (2011)
      Screens will get larger (tablet) and smaller (wearable) (2012)
      Android will become the dominant mobile ecosystem (2012)
      RFID chips will enable micropayments via mobile (2013)
      Gestural interfaces will start to penetrate the home market (2013)
      Mobiles will become smart devices for machine-to-machine communication (2014)
      We will keep information in the cloud and pull it down to the devices we use when we need it (2014)
      Optical recognition will be standard, recognising locations and people (2015)
      Security will become an issue (2015)
    • The mobile future
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FScddkTMlTc
    • Mobile
      brave enough for the new world?
      Jennifer Wilson
      jennifer@theprojectfactory.com
      0414 59 58 57
      JenWilsonSydney