Mobile 2009, 2010 and beyond


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A review of the Australian mobile landscape with a look to some European stats as a clue as to what might be happening next.

Also, some predications for the future of mobile - 2010 and beyond.

Published in: Technology, Business

Mobile 2009, 2010 and beyond

  1. 1. AIMIA Digital Summit 2009<br />The Rise of Mobile<br />An overview of 2009, beyond the hype and some thoughts on the future <br />
  2. 2. 2009 – key learnings<br />Mobile internet -&gt; mobile apps<br />The iPhone provides new business<br />And a new business model<br />Mobile advertising – muted promise<br />GFC retreat to conservatism<br />Advertising fears the loss of its audience<br />To varied and diverse devices<br />Entertainment fear the loss of its funding<br />And looks to some new models<br />
  3. 3. Where are we now?<br />24.5m mobile handsets (113% penetration)*<br />3G handsets – est 12m** or almost 50% <br />Double that of a year ago<br />The iPhone phenomena<br />35m sold globally, about 1.8% all handsets, Blackberry about 2% <br />Nokia, Sony Ericsson and Samsung still lead***<br />800,000 in Australia**<br />Another 250,000 iPod Touch devices use mobile products and service<br />Representing about 4.5% of handsets<br />But around 30-35% of all data/apps/access<br />Mobile internet use: almost 10m active monthly users (40%)***<br />Half of these estimated to be daily<br />* Telsyte research ** Industry best guess *** AMPLI Survey<br />
  4. 4. The market is broad<br />Is it worth the bother?<br />24.6m mobiles<br />12m 3G handsets<br />20% 2G are smartphones<br /> 4.5% iPhone/iTouch<br />Addressable market: 15.5m<br />
  5. 5. Different Services Different Demographics<br />Younger: create ringtones, use social networking, listen to music (web 2.0 type services).<br />Mobile internet services (browsing, apps and e-mail) skew 65-70% male.<br />Mobile content (games and ringtones) more even gender split <br />MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March 09 across EU5 (UK, DE, FR, ES + IT) - N= 70,964<br />
  6. 6. Too many devices (1491 EU)<br />Top 6 devices represent 12.3% of mobile media users, top 20 devices – 26.1%.<br />Apple starting to challenge Nokia’s long dominance however still represent just 5% of mobile media users vs Nokia’s 36%.<br />Sony Ericsson represent 17% of media users. <br />Samsung also represent 17% of media users.<br /> MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March 09 Country: EU5 (UK, DE, FR, ES + IT) - N= 70,964<br />
  7. 7. Top Apps (Comscore EU study)<br />62.6% of iPhone 3G users have used an app in a month and momentum is growing. 6 months ago 51% of iPhone owners used an app for news and info.<br />In comparison 21% of Nokia N95 and 37% of Blackberry Storm use an app.<br />Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March 09 EU5 (UK, DE, FR, ES + IT) - N= 70,964<br />
  8. 8. Internet = Information Snacking<br />Local information also prominent, e.g. maps, movie listings, business directories, traffic , etc<br />Transactional services starting to emerge – e.g. Auction Sites<br />The combination of local services and transactions will bring about new business models.<br />Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March 09 EU5 (UK, DE, FR, ES + IT) - N= 70,964<br />
  9. 9. Top Information Services (Aus)<br />48% of respondents used an information service of some sort - up 30% on a year ago<br />Most services used at least once a month, with news and weather most frequent use<br />Expectation of future use is high, with 30% growth expected next year also <br />Source: Australia Mobile Phone Lifestyle Index Survey (AIMIA) 2009<br />
  10. 10. Hype or future gazing?<br />Mobile advertising will take off<br />But is still likely to be 18 – 24 months away<br />The PC internet indicates (but mobile will grow faster)<br />Mobile is unlikely to be the preferred screen in Australia<br />But it will be increasingly used as the ‘now’ or first device<br />We will move internet habits to the mobile <br />Large, touch screen devices<br />Targeting will make services (and advertising) more relevant to us<br />And this will make it more useful<br />Advertising models from the Internet will not necessarily translate to mobile<br />We need to start looking forward and not backwards<br />
  11. 11. IAB Mobile Ad 2008 - £28.6 million<br />50% from search, 50% from display (banners and text links, tenancy, pre / post roll, etc)<br />Comparisons can be made with the first PC internet ad spend data from 1998:<br />In 1998 there was an average of 7.3 million PC internet users and ad spend was £19.4m<br />In 2008 there was an average of 9.5 million mobile internet users * and ad spend £28.6m<br />The mobile internet has slightly more ad revenue per user than the PC internet 10 years ago<br />Source: IAB Mobile Ad Spend Study 2008/Product: MobiLens Data: Ending Dec 2008 (UK)<br />* Mobile Internet Users defined as those who browse or use an application for news, info or social networks.<br />
  12. 12. The future in mobile<br />We talk about internet on a small screen….<br />But there’s much more to this<br />Mobile offers :<br />The first personal mass media channel<br />Always with us, always on<br />Location awareness<br />Built in payment channel<br />Creative tool for UGC (video, text & image)<br />Near-perfect audience data<br />Able to capture the social context of media<br />Proactive communication tool<br />Based upon Tomi Ahonen – Mobile as the 7th Mass Media<br />
  13. 13. Starting to look forward<br />The (PC) internet took off with the advent of broadband and decent speeds<br />3G is showing us the same thing<br />Operators without decent data plans are hurting themselves and the market<br />Users without decent data plans have lower satisfaction scores and 40% plan on churning<br />Mobile usage and services are growing<br />There is no cannibalisation (yet) – just growth<br />And a hunger for more and better services<br />Apps are showing us that mobile is more than internet<br />A new device with new opportunities<br />
  14. 14. Key reasons to be mobile<br />Most ubiquitous device (ever)<br />Responded to very quickly (96% SMS read in &lt;20 mins)<br />On 24 x 7, nearby and accessed often<br />Communication, content and utility<br />Response to mobile advertising incredible:<br />3% - 7% response rate<br />10% - 20% conversation rate<br />6 times the ROI on mobile compared to other forms<br />We talk about ‘conversation’ – this needs to happen seamless and consistently across all devices<br />
  15. 15. When considering mobile services<br />Don’t restrict the content<br />Just manage the navigation and presentation<br />Think of your consumer first<br />What will they be doing? Where? Moving?<br />Tailor your sites for your audience<br />Don’t develop just iPhone<br />But question is you should bother with WAP<br />Your consumers are cross-platform (online and mobile)<br />Allow a single log in for consistent experience<br />Personalise, tailor, make unique, deliver<br />Remember your customers and show you remember<br />Learn from what they do to become more relevant<br />
  16. 16. Key things: (0,1,2,3)<br />Zero changes to user behaviour<br />(don’t make them act differently for you)<br />One login<br />(remember who they are, regardless of device)<br />Two second respond time<br />Make it simple, make it clean, make it fast<br />Three clicks away (maximum)<br />You’ll lose 10% of users for each added level<br />
  17. 17. What will 2010 hold?<br />Mobile advertising will grow<br />Advertisers will look for new engagement<br />Augmented reality will become more common<br /> Great for travel, listings and events<br />iPhone will come under greater competition<br />New mobile operating systems (PalmOS, Android)<br />Handset manufacturers (Nokia, Sony Ericsson)<br />More apps and apps stores, for more devices <br />Linked cross-media solutions (internet & mobile)<br />Based on better subscriber/consumer engagement<br />Subscription content? Better mobile TV?<br />
  18. 18. Mobile plotting (AR)<br />
  19. 19. 2010 and beyond<br />mCommerce will become more common (2011)<br />Screens will get larger (tablet) and smaller (wearable) (2012)<br />Android will become the dominant mobile ecosystem (2012)<br />RFID chips will enable micropayments via mobile (2013)<br />Gestural interfaces will start to penetrate the home market (2013)<br />Mobiles will become smart devices for machine-to-machine communication (2014)<br />We will keep information in the cloud and pull it down to the devices we use when we need it (2014)<br />Optical recognition will be standard, recognising locations and people (2015)<br />Security will become an issue (2015)<br />
  20. 20. The mobile future<br /><br />
  21. 21. Mobile<br />brave enough for the new world?<br />Jennifer Wilson<br /><br />0414 59 58 57<br />JenWilsonSydney<br />