AIMIA Digital Summit 2009The Rise of MobileAn overview of 2009, beyond the hype and some thoughts on the future

2009 – key learningsMobile internet -> mobile appsThe iPhone provides new businessAnd a new business modelMobile advertising – muted promiseGFC retreat to conservatismAdvertising fears the loss of its audienceTo varied and diverse devicesEntertainment fear the loss of its fundingAnd looks to some new models

Where are we now?24.5m mobile handsets (113% penetration)*3G handsets – est 12m** or almost 50% Double that of a year agoThe iPhone phenomena35m sold globally, about 1.8% all handsets, Blackberry about 2% Nokia, Sony Ericsson and Samsung still lead***800,000 in Australia**Another 250,000 iPod Touch devices use mobile products and serviceRepresenting about 4.5% of handsetsBut around 30-35% of all data/apps/accessMobile internet use: almost 10m active monthly users (40%)***Half of these estimated to be daily* Telsyte research ** Industry best guess *** AMPLI Survey

The market is broadIs it worth the bother?24.6m mobiles12m 3G handsets20% 2G are smartphones 4.5% iPhone/iTouchAddressable market: 15.5m

Different Services Different DemographicsYounger: create ringtones, use social networking, listen to music (web 2.0 type services).Mobile internet services (browsing, apps and e-mail) skew 65-70% male.Mobile content (games and ringtones) more even gender split MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March 09 across EU5 (UK, DE, FR, ES + IT) - N= 70,964

Too many devices (1491 EU)Top 6 devices represent 12.3% of mobile media users, top 20 devices – 26.1%.Apple starting to challenge Nokia’s long dominance however still represent just 5% of mobile media users vs Nokia’s 36%.Sony Ericsson represent 17% of media users. Samsung also represent 17% of media users. MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March 09 Country: EU5 (UK, DE, FR, ES + IT) - N= 70,964

Top Apps (Comscore EU study)62.6% of iPhone 3G users have used an app in a month and momentum is growing. 6 months ago 51% of iPhone owners used an app for news and info.In comparison 21% of Nokia N95 and 37% of Blackberry Storm use an app.Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March 09 EU5 (UK, DE, FR, ES + IT) - N= 70,964

Internet = Information SnackingLocal information also prominent, e.g. maps, movie listings, business directories, traffic , etcTransactional services starting to emerge – e.g. Auction SitesThe combination of local services and transactions will bring about new business models.Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March 09 EU5 (UK, DE, FR, ES + IT) - N= 70,964

Top Information Services (Aus)48% of respondents used an information service of some sort - up 30% on a year agoMost services used at least once a month, with news and weather most frequent useExpectation of future use is high, with 30% growth expected next year also Source: Australia Mobile Phone Lifestyle Index Survey (AIMIA) 2009

Hype or future gazing?Mobile advertising will take offBut is still likely to be 18 – 24 months awayThe PC internet indicates (but mobile will grow faster)Mobile is unlikely to be the preferred screen in AustraliaBut it will be increasingly used as the ‘now’ or first deviceWe will move internet habits to the mobile Large, touch screen devicesTargeting will make services (and advertising) more relevant to usAnd this will make it more usefulAdvertising models from the Internet will not necessarily translate to mobileWe need to start looking forward and not backwards

IAB Mobile Ad 2008 - £28.6 million50% from search, 50% from display (banners and text links, tenancy, pre / post roll, etc)Comparisons can be made with the first PC internet ad spend data from 1998:In 1998 there was an average of 7.3 million PC internet users and ad spend was £19.4mIn 2008 there was an average of 9.5 million mobile internet users * and ad spend £28.6mThe mobile internet has slightly more ad revenue per user than the PC internet 10 years agoSource: IAB Mobile Ad Spend Study 2008/Product: MobiLens Data: Ending Dec 2008 (UK)* Mobile Internet Users defined as those who browse or use an application for news, info or social networks.

The future in mobileWe talk about internet on a small screen….But there’s much more to thisMobile offers :The first personal mass media channelAlways with us, always onLocation awarenessBuilt in payment channelCreative tool for UGC (video, text & image)Near-perfect audience dataAble to capture the social context of mediaProactive communication toolBased upon Tomi Ahonen – Mobile as the 7th Mass Media

Starting to look forwardThe (PC) internet took off with the advent of broadband and decent speeds3G is showing us the same thingOperators without decent data plans are hurting themselves and the marketUsers without decent data plans have lower satisfaction scores and 40% plan on churningMobile usage and services are growingThere is no cannibalisation (yet) – just growthAnd a hunger for more and better servicesApps are showing us that mobile is more than internetA new device with new opportunities

Key reasons to be mobileMost ubiquitous device (ever)Responded to very quickly (96% SMS read in <20 mins)On 24 x 7, nearby and accessed oftenCommunication, content and utilityResponse to mobile advertising incredible:3% - 7% response rate10% - 20% conversation rate6 times the ROI on mobile compared to other formsWe talk about ‘conversation’ – this needs to happen seamless and consistently across all devices

When considering mobile servicesDon’t restrict the contentJust manage the navigation and presentationThink of your consumer firstWhat will they be doing? Where? Moving?Tailor your sites for your audienceDon’t develop just iPhoneBut question is you should bother with WAPYour consumers are cross-platform (online and mobile)Allow a single log in for consistent experiencePersonalise, tailor, make unique, deliverRemember your customers and show you rememberLearn from what they do to become more relevant

Key things: (0,1,2,3)Zero changes to user behaviour(don’t make them act differently for you)One login(remember who they are, regardless of device)Two second respond timeMake it simple, make it clean, make it fastThree clicks away (maximum)You’ll lose 10% of users for each added level

What will 2010 hold?Mobile advertising will growAdvertisers will look for new engagementAugmented reality will become more common Great for travel, listings and eventsiPhone will come under greater competitionNew mobile operating systems (PalmOS, Android)Handset manufacturers (Nokia, Sony Ericsson)More apps and apps stores, for more devices Linked cross-media solutions (internet & mobile)Based on better subscriber/consumer engagementSubscription content? Better mobile TV?

Mobile plotting (AR)

2010 and beyondmCommerce will become more common (2011)Screens will get larger (tablet) and smaller (wearable) (2012)Android will become the dominant mobile ecosystem (2012)RFID chips will enable micropayments via mobile (2013)Gestural interfaces will start to penetrate the home market (2013)Mobiles will become smart devices for machine-to-machine communication (2014)We will keep information in the cloud and pull it down to the devices we use when we need it (2014)Optical recognition will be standard, recognising locations and people (2015)Security will become an issue (2015)

The mobile futurehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FScddkTMlTc

Mobilebrave enough for the new world?Jennifer Wilsonjennifer@theprojectfactory.com0414 59 58 57JenWilsonSydney