Deciding the fall classic with social buzz

Deciding the Fall Classic with Social Buzz
Jeff Espositowww.jeffesposito.com

Baseball is a sport that is obsessed with numbers and statistics. You may know about Bill James’ statistics and Sabermetrics, but would you ever think of putting NPS, SIM or conversation share to the MLB postseason?
This report takes a look at the social buzz surrounding the eight teams that are gunning for the 2010 MLB crown.

Methodology
Measured social mentions for each team from September 3 through October 3, 2010 using Scout Labs software
Mediums included:
Blogs
Forums
Traditional news sites
Twitter
Metrics used include conversation share, positive and negative conversation shares, SIM and Net promoter scores

Crowning a Champion
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To select a winner, I used social buzz to select the league and World Series winners. My formula equally weighs five variables , including conversation share, positive conversation share (mentions sentimented positive by the tool), negative conversation share (mentions sentimented negative by the tool), SIM score and Net Promoter Score.
To select the league division winners, I ranked each variable on a 1-4 scale (with negative conversation share counting negative 1-4) with the top team receiving four points while the lowest team received one point. The team with the most points is my predicted league champion. In the case of a tie, the overall mentions served as a tiebreaker.
I determined my World Series picks in a similar fashion using a 1-2 scale. In the case of a tie in the championship series the tie-breaker was the team with the overall highest score from both rounds combined.

Formulas
Conversation Share
Total team mentions / Overall league mentions
Positive Conversation Share
Total positive team mentions / Overall positive league mentions
Negative Conversation Share
Total negative team mentions / Overall negative league mentions
Net Promoter Score (NPS)
(Positive mentions + neutral mentions) – negative mentions / Total team mentions
Social Influence Marketing Score (SIM)
NPS * Conversation Share * 1,000
5

Leaders of the Fall
Top Mentioned Teams
New York Yankees
Philadelphia
Texas
Least Mentioned Teams
Cincinnati
Tampa Bay
San Francisco
Top Positive Mentions
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay
Texas
Top Negative Mentions
New York
Philadelphia
Texas
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Leaders of the Fall
Top SIM Score
New York Yankees
Philadelphia
Atlanta
Low SIM Score
Cincinnati
Tampa Bay
Minnesota
Top NPS
San Francisco
Cincinnati
Atlanta
Low NPS
Philadelphia
Texas
Minnesota
7

Conversation Share

American League Playoff Teams
Minnesota Twins
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers

American League
NPS
Yankees – 96%
Rangers – 95%
Rays – 95%
Twins – 95%
SIM Score
Yankees - 359.00
Rangers – 204.24
Twins – 196.67
Rays – 192.50
Yankees – 39.04%
Rays – 23.64%
Rangers – 19.75%
Twins – 17.57%
Yankees – 34.36%
Rangers – 23.89%
Twins – 21.82%
Rays – 19.94%
Conversation Share
League Champion: New York Yankees
Team Rankings
New York Yankees - 12
Texas Rangers - 8
Tampa Bay Rays - 7
Minnesota Twins - 6
For an explanation of the scoring, see page 4
10

Minnesota Twins

New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays

Texas Rangers

National League Playoff Teams
Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati Reds
Philadelphia Phillies
San Francisco Giants

National League
NPS
Giants – 98%
Reds – 98%
Braves – 97%
Phillies – 95%
SIM Score
Phillies – 263.33
Braves – 262.28
Giants – 249.94
Reds – 191.84
Braves – 36.11%
Giants – 29.72%
Phillies – 22.10%
Reds – 12.06%
Phillies - 45.28%
Braves – 27.30%
Reds – 13.94%
Giants – 13.48%
Conversation Share
League Champion: San Francisco Giants
Team Rankings
San Francisco Giants – 10
Atlanta Braves – 9
Philadelphia Phillies – 7
Cincinnati Reds - 5
For an explanation of the scoring, see page 4
20

Atlanta Braves

Cincinnati Reds

Philadelphia Phillies

San Francisco Giants

World Series
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants

And the winner is…

New York Yankees
Utilizing the social buzz surrounding the 2010 MLB Playoffs, the New York Yankees will defeat the San Francisco Giants to take home their 28th World Championship.
The final score using the metrics listed on page 4 has the Bronx Bombers winning 5-4 over the Giants.

About this report
This report was compiled using Scout Labs. The account was provided to me for research purposes.
MLB and Social Media are two things that I am passionate about. Like many baseball fans, I am excited for the start of the postseason. I did the research for this report to see if this online passion and buzz had any relation to on-field performance. I figured using numbers was a better predicting tool than saying I like this team or mascot X is tougher than mascot Z.
This report was not done in conjunction with the league or any member teams. All images used in this report were from PicApp under their terms and conditions.
All team names and league marks appearing in this document are trademarks or registered trademarks of Major League Baseball or individual teams.
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About this report
About Jeff Esposito
Jeff Esposito is a public relations professional with a passion for social and conversational media and writes on both topics on JeffEsposito.com. He earned his PR stripes working in the professional sports world. Jeff is currently a public relations manager at Vistaprint, a leading online provider of professional marketing products and services to micro businesses. He is responsible for the day-to-day management, development and growth of the company's social media properties and campaigns. He is also active in a number of other communications areas for Vistaprint, including marketing communications and PR. The information and findings are from Jeff Esposito and do not reflect the opinions of his employer or Scout Labs.
If you would like more information on this report or would like to contact me, please visit: http://jeffesposito.com/about/
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Deciding the fall classic with social buzz

by Jeff Esposito on Oct 04, 2010

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