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Grand Lake OK 2005   2011 full year real estate market analysis
 

Grand Lake OK 2005 2011 full year real estate market analysis

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Presented “Real Estate Trends at Grand Lake” at Grand Lake Area Real Estate Symposium 02/17/2012. If you did not attend, this is my complete presentation. ...

Presented “Real Estate Trends at Grand Lake” at Grand Lake Area Real Estate Symposium 02/17/2012. If you did not attend, this is my complete presentation.
Market is up 6.5%, Home sales are up 9% and water front homes are up 18%. This analysis looks at the period 2005 to 2011, and breaks the real estate market at Grand Lake into about twenty different elements.

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  • I am Jeff Savage with RE/MAX Grand Lake –MLS Chairperson 2003 to 2008 – the MLS expertI Presented Real Estate Trends at the 2008 Grand Lake Area Real Estate Symposium looking at 2003 to 2007 activity – I have updated that presentation for 2005 to 2011.We’ve heard about the NATIONAL real estate market and what has been going on . . . . .But . . . . Real Estate is LOCAL, so let’s focus on the LOCAL market – our 4 counties in Northeast Oklahoma – Delaware, Ottawa, Craig and Mayes.
  • Here are a few terms we will use today:Dollar Volume – TOTAL dollars spent in that categoryAverage Sold Price - TOTAL dollars spent divided by number of units soldLuxuryHome Market – We took the upper 5% of the market, which in this case was $500,000 and up
  • Seller’s Market characteristics include:Inventory is TIGHT – shrinkingPrices are RISingAverage Sold Price is RISingDays on the Market are FALLing
  • Buyer’s Market characteristics include:Inventory is HIGH – growingPrices are FALLingAverage Sold Price is FALLingDays on the Market are RISingWhich one describes our current market? . . . . . Let’s find out
  • Based on information from the Northeast Oklahoma Board of Realtors for the period January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2011This study includes MOST but NOT ALL real estate activity
  • For ALL Real Estate, let’s look at area market performance for the last 7 years - 2005 to 2011We will often focus on the last 3 years – 2009, 2010 & 2011The Total Dollar Volume averagefor All Property Types for the last 3 years is $124.3 million2011 was above that average
  • When we look at Water Front Homes, we see Dollar Volume is back to 2005 levelsThe average for the last three years is $51 million now 45.5 % of ALL market activity
  • If we continue to look at Water Front Homes, we see Average Sold Price numbers are on the rise, after a drop in 2009
  • When we look at theNON-Water Front homes, we see a pattern similar to ALL Property Types and Water Front homes with Dollar Volumes decreasing but stable The average for the last three years is $55 million  now 41.8 % of ALL market activity
  • When we look at theAverage Sold Price forNON-Water Front homes,the average is fairly flat for this category – at just over $100,000
  • Luxury Homes ($500,000 or more) have performed well until 2009They are on the rise again and now 18.7 % of the total marketIn 2009 we sold 22, and last year sold 33
  • Looking at the Average Sold Price for Luxury Homes, the average for the last three years is $741,000We see a lot of variance year over year
  • Looking at Water Front LOTS we see a decline for the last four years And a lot of fluctuationThe average for the last three years is $3 million  a small segment of market activity or 2.2 % of the market
  • For Average Sold Price for Water Front Lots, we see Average Sold Price running at 2005 levels
  • For Condos and Townhouses We see a slow rise after a good year in 2007They now represent 5.6 % of the market
  • For Farms and Rancheswe see decreases They now represent 3.3 % of the market
  • For Commercial Propertywe see a declineThey now represent 1.3 % of the market
  • Looking at the Number of Transactions for ALL Property Types, we see decreases similar to the trends we saw with Total Market VolumeThe average for the last three years - just under 867 transactions / year.
  • Looking at the Number of Transactions for ALL Property Types, we see that they peaked in 2007 and decreased ever sinceWe continue to search for buyersThe average for the last three years - just over 4516 listings / year.
  • Now, let’s look at our Financing SourcesLooking at Residential Home SalesConventional, FHA and CASH make up the largest segmentsOTHER covers Financing Sources of “Other”, “Owner Carry” & “Private”For ALL Finance Type Transactions for Residential Sales, the pattern looks much like the Total Sales for ALL Property TypesResidential Sales represent 87.3 % of Total Dollar Volume, & 83.9 % of Total Transactions
  • Conventional Financing has dropped off since 2006 and represents 45.8 % of ALL Residential Financing TransactionsDown from 61 % in 2006
  • CASH has remained relatively constant throughout the last 7 years and represents 29.8 % of ALL Residential Financing Transactions
  • OTHER Financing Sources of“Other”, “Owner Carry” & “Private”represent less than 17.1 % of ALL Financing Transactions
  • FHA Financing has dropped off a bit and represents 5.9 % of ALL Financing Transactions
  • VA Financingremains a small segment of the financing market and represents 1.4 % of ALL Financing Transactions
  • So . . . . The numbers show us we are in the process of recovery,Water Front Homes & Lots bring buyers to Grand Lake, and seem to have faired better in recent years“Real Estate is LOCAL . . . And Oklahomans are not buying or selling these homes in a national housing market.”

Grand Lake OK 2005   2011 full year real estate market analysis Grand Lake OK 2005 2011 full year real estate market analysis Presentation Transcript

  • 2012 Grand Lake AreaReal Estate Symposium Real Estate Trends Jeff Savage
  • Real Estate Acronyms,Terminology and Definitions DOLLAR VOLUMETotal dollars spent in that property category. AVERAGE SOLD PRICETotal Dollars Spent divided bynumber of units sold in that property category. Luxury Home Market In this instance, we will simply use the price point representing the upper 5% of the market, or $500,000+
  • Signs of a Seller’s Market • Inventory is Low• Comparable Sale Prices are Lower than Active Listing Prices • Median Sale Prices are Increasing • Days on Market will be Decreasing
  • Signs of a Buyer’s Market • Inventory is high • Median Sale Prices are Decreasing• Comparable Sale Prices are Higher than Active Listing Prices • Days on Market is Increasing
  • Source of Information• Based on information from the Northeast Oklahoma Board of Realtors® For the period January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2011
  • All Property Sales Dollar Volume $215,513,432 $199,065,317$180,163,707 $171,559,949 $125,457,074 $127,567,682 $119,843,085 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Residential Waterfront Dollar Volume $78,829,160 $69,725,986 $66,767,086$58,573,476 $58,060,405 $49,067,635 $46,299,150 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Residential Waterfront Average Sold Price $358,963 $333,793 $335,609 $306,728 $311,277 $291,190$251,3882005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Residential (not Water Front) Dollar Volume $93,461,363 $84,674,353$78,454,796 $69,200,646 $60,092,708 $53,220,825 $53,327,813 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Residential (not Water Front) Average Sold Price $106,018 $101,965 $97,968 $96,380 $95,842 $94,503$88,7502005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Luxury Home Market Dollar Volume $31,054,400 $28,720,161 $26,832,200 $23,839,600 $19,508,210 $15,868,500$9,512,900 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Luxury Home Market Average Sold Price $796,267 $780,328$731,762 $718,004 $721,295 $722,412 $706,1112005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Water Front Lots Dollar Volume $14,374,950$8,793,551 $6,421,999 $5,547,820 $2,808,850 $3,411,375 $2,835,300 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Water Front Lots Average Sold Price $266,203$165,916 $173,568 $166,782 $147,834 $136,455 $108,7812005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Condos and Townhomes Dollar Volume $10,082,750 $7,011,516 $7,108,232 $6,088,450 $6,185,500 $5,694,525$4,672,950 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Farms and Ranches $15,272,494 $13,118,100$11,055,540 $7,995,861 $7,817,380 $4,828,470 $4,228,334 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Commercial Dollar Volume$10,349,300 $9,417,500 $8,890,375 $5,648,400 $2,897,900 $2,290,000 $1,686,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Number of Sold Transactions Total # Sales 1,574 1,464 1,424 1,159 969 803 8302005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • All Property Listings Active Listings During the Year 5,138 4,974 4,847 4,769 4,627 4,475 4,3032005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Residential Sales Dollar Volume $172,290,523 $154,400,339$137,028,272 $135,967,732 $111,388,218 $106,391,858 $102,288,460 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Conventional Loans Dollar Volume $108,443,539$93,308,710 $91,154,139 $63,289,586 $56,430,899 $48,401,234 $51,062,943 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Cash Sales Dollar Volume $36,273,843 $33,173,688 $32,421,082 $32,731,016$30,126,964 $28,711,604 $26,034,680 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Other Loans Dollar Volume $29,253,100 $25,253,146 $20,092,460 $19,092,300 $13,637,251 $13,592,100$6,909,4592005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • FHA Loans Dollar Volume $10,058,464 $8,832,228 $8,753,299$6,281,589 $6,541,987 $6,313,661 $5,868,3102005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • VA Loans Dollar Volume $1,695,800 $1,456,800 $1,517,300 $1,167,020 $945,500 $528,151$401,5502005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • In Conclusion • The numbers show a recovering local real estate market.• Water Front Homes bring buyers to Grand Lake, and continue to be the strongest segment of the area market. • Real estate is local, and Oklahomans are not buying or selling their homes in a national housing market.