Mobile Landscape

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Mobile Landscape

  1. 1. Mobile landscape<br />A snapshot for 2010<br />
  2. 2. Why mobile? Why now?<br />
  3. 3. Also, why “snapshot”?<br />
  4. 4. A little context helps…<br />
  5. 5. But First…<br />
  6. 6. What is a computer?<br />
  7. 7. What is a computer?<br />Input<br />
  8. 8. What is a computer?<br />Input<br />Processor / Storage<br />
  9. 9. What is a computer?<br />Input<br />Processor / Storage<br />Output<br />
  10. 10. What is a computer?<br />Input<br />Processor / Storage<br />OutputThink about that…<br />
  11. 11. Computing Power<br />
  12. 12. 1995<br />Power Macintosh 7200/75<br />$1700<br />75MHz PowerPC 601 Processor<br />16 MB RAM<br />
  13. 13. 2010<br />iPhone 3Gs<br />$500<br />600MHz ARM Processor<br />256 MB RAM<br />
  14. 14. Data Transfer Rates<br />
  15. 15. My Facebook Page is 210K…<br />
  16. 16. My Facebook Page is 210K<br />56 kilobits per second<br />30 seconds to download<br />56K Modem<br />
  17. 17. My Facebook Page is 210K<br />56 kilobits per second<br />30 seconds to download<br />128 – 384 kilobits per second (moving)<br />4 to 8 seconds to download<br />56K Modem<br />3G Network<br />
  18. 18. What’s that mean?<br />
  19. 19. <ul><li> Faster
  20. 20. Cheaper
  21. 21. Portable</li></ul>What’s that mean?<br />
  22. 22. The 5th Computing Cycle!<br />
  23. 23. Um, what were the other four?<br />The 5th Computing Cycle!<br />
  24. 24. Glad you asked!<br />The 5th Computing Cycle!<br />
  25. 25. The 5 cycles of computing<br />
  26. 26. The 5 cycles of computing<br />Mainframe Computing – 1960s<br />
  27. 27. The 5 cycles of computing<br />Mainframe Computing – 1960s<br />Mini Computing – 1970s<br />
  28. 28. The 5 cycles of computing<br />Mainframe Computing – 1960s<br />Mini Computing – 1970s<br />Personal Computing – 1980s<br />
  29. 29. The 5 cycles of computing<br />Mainframe Computing – 1960s<br />Mini Computing – 1970s<br />Personal Computing – 1980s<br />Desktop Internet Computing – 1990s<br />
  30. 30. The 5 cycles of computing<br />Mainframe Computing – 1960s <br />Mini Computing – 1970s<br />Personal Computing – 1980s<br />Desktop Internet Computing – 1990s<br />Mobile Internet Computing – 2000s<br />
  31. 31. The 5 cycles of computing<br />Mainframe Computing – 1960s (1 Million units)<br />Mini Computing – 1970s (10 Million units)<br />Personal Computing – 1980s (100 Million units)<br />Desktop Internet Computing – 1990s (1 Billion units) <br />Mobile Internet Computing – 2000s (10 Billion units)<br />Reduce Usage Friction Via Better Processor Power + Improved User Interface + Smaller Form Factor + Expanded Services + Lower Prices = 10X More Devices<br />
  32. 32. Why is this happening?<br />
  33. 33. A Perfect Storm of Convergence<br />
  34. 34. A Perfect Storm of Convergence<br />3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point”<br />
  35. 35. A Perfect Storm of Convergence<br />3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point”<br />Video Adoption Rates<br />
  36. 36. A Perfect Storm of Convergence<br />3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point”<br />Video Adoption Rates<br />VoIP Technology<br />
  37. 37. A Perfect Storm of Convergence<br />3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point”<br />Video Adoption Rates<br />VoIP Technology<br />The Cloud<br />
  38. 38. A Perfect Storm of Convergence<br />3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point”<br />Video Adoption Rates<br />VoIP Technology<br />The Cloud<br />Social Networks as Platforms Connecting Consumers<br />
  39. 39. A Perfect Storm of Convergence<br />3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point”<br />Video Adoption Rates<br />VoIP Technology<br />The Cloud<br />Social Networks as Platforms Connecting Consumers<br />Impressive Mobile Devices<br />
  40. 40. “Regarding the pace of change, we believe more users will likely connect to the Internet via mobile devices than desktop PCs within 5 years” - Morgan Stanley<br />
  41. 41. 3G Networks<br />
  42. 42. 3G Defined<br />
  43. 43. 3G Defined<br />3G Stands for 3rd-generation. Analog cellular phones were the first generation. Digital phones marked the second generation (2G).<br />
  44. 44. 3G Defined<br />3G Stands for 3rd-generation. Analog cellular phones were the first generation. Digital phones marked the second generation (2G).<br />3G is loosely defined, but generally includes high data speeds, always-on data access, and greater voice capacity.<br />
  45. 45. 3G Defined<br />3G Stands for 3rd-generation. Analog cellular phones were the first generation. Digital phones marked the second generation (2G).<br />3G is loosely defined, but generally includes high data speeds, always-on data access, and greater voice capacity.<br />The high data speeds are possibly the most prominent feature, and certainly the most hyped. They enable such advanced features as live, streaming video.<br />
  46. 46. 2010 ‘Mainstream’ Inflection<br />
  47. 47. 2010 ‘Mainstream’ Inflection<br />
  48. 48. 3G Growth <br />
  49. 49. 3G Growth <br />Concentrated in Developed Markets<br />
  50. 50. 3G Growth <br />Concentrated in Developed Markets<br />USA Now leading in Users & Innovation<br />
  51. 51. 3G Growth <br />Concentrated in Developed Markets<br />USA Now leading in Users & Innovation<br />Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009<br />
  52. 52. 3G Growth <br />Concentrated in Developed Markets<br />USA Now leading in Users & Innovation<br />Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009<br />103,110,000 US Subscribers<br />94,813,000 Japanese Subscribers<br />
  53. 53. 3G Growth <br />Concentrated in Developed Markets<br />USA Now leading in Users & Innovation<br />Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009<br />103,110,000 US Subscribers<br />94,813,000 Japanese Subscribers<br />Japanese Penetration = 87%<br />
  54. 54. 3G Growth <br />Concentrated in Developed Markets<br />USA Now leading in Users & Innovation<br />Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009<br />103,110,000 US Subscribers<br />94,813,000 Japanese Subscribers<br />Japanese Penetration = 87%<br />US Penetration = 37%<br />
  55. 55. Other Wireless Options…<br />
  56. 56. Other Wireless Options…<br />GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold<br />
  57. 57. Other Wireless Options…<br />GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments<br />
  58. 58. Other Wireless Options…<br />GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments<br />Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008<br />
  59. 59. Other Wireless Options…<br />GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments<br />Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008Estimate 60% of iPhone/iTouch usage may be on Wi-Fi providing a crucial (and 10X faster) offload to stressed 3G networks<br />
  60. 60. Other Wireless Options…<br />GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments<br />Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008Estimate 60% of iPhone/iTouch usage may be on Wi-Fi providing a crucial (and 10X faster) offload to stressed 3G networks<br />1.3B Bluetooth enabled devices shipped in 2008<br />
  61. 61. Other Wireless Options…<br />GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments<br />Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008Estimate 60% of iPhone/iTouch usage may be on Wi-Fi providing a crucial (and 10X faster) offload to stressed 3G networks<br />1.3B Bluetooth enabled devices shipped in 20082B+ Bluetooth devices currently in use<br />
  62. 62. Video Adoption Rates<br />
  63. 63. Consumers Have Voted<br />
  64. 64. Consumers Have Voted<br />466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)<br />
  65. 65. Consumers Have Voted<br />466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)<br />42 MM Hulu US Users (+77% Y/Y)<br />
  66. 66. Consumers Have Voted<br />466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)<br />42 MM Hulu US Users (+77% Y/Y)<br />167 Online Video USA Users (+14% Y/Y)109B Minutes of Video Watched (+169% Y/Y)<br />
  67. 67. Consumers Have Voted<br />466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)<br />42 MM Hulu US Users (+77% Y/Y)<br />167 Online Video USA Users (+14% Y/Y)109B Minutes of Video Watched (+169% Y/Y)<br />54 MM Global Internet-enabled set top boxes (Xbox360, Sony PS3, TiVo, Slingbox, Vudu, Roku…) (+59% Y/Y) – Transforming TVs into internet streaming / on-demand video terminals <br />
  68. 68. Video Driving Growth<br />
  69. 69. Video Driving Growth<br />Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times<br />
  70. 70. Video Driving Growth<br />Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times<br />Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic took<br />
  71. 71. Video Driving Growth<br />Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times<br />Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic tookThe internet grew from 1 petabyte to 1 exabyte in 14 years. Mobile will do the same in seven.<br />
  72. 72. Video Driving Growth<br />Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times<br />Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic tookThe internet grew from 1 petabyte to 1 exabyte in 14 years. Mobile will do the same in seven.<br />Almost 64% of the world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013<br />
  73. 73. Video Driving Growth<br />Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times<br />Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic tookThe internet grew from 1 petabyte to 1 exabyte in 14 years. Mobile will do the same in seven.<br />Almost 64% of the world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013Mobile video has the highest growth rate ever measured by the “Cisco VNI forecast”.<br />
  74. 74. Video Driving Growth<br />Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013<br />
  75. 75. Video Driving Growth<br />Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013A single high-end phone like the iPhone/Android generates more data traffic than 30 basic-feature cell phones. A laptop aircard generates more data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phones.<br />
  76. 76. Video Driving Growth<br />Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013A single high-end phone like the iPhone/Android generates more data traffic than 30 basic-feature cell phones. A laptop aircard generates more data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phones.<br />Latin America will have the strongest growth of any region (166% CAGR)<br />
  77. 77. VoIP (Voice Over IP)<br />
  78. 78. Whither Skype?<br />
  79. 79. Whither Skype?<br />If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World<br />
  80. 80. Whither Skype?<br />If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World<br />521MM registered Users (+41% Y/Y)<br />
  81. 81. Whither Skype?<br />If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World<br />521MM registered Users (+41% Y/Y)<br />8% of Cross-Border Calling Minutes<br />
  82. 82. Whither Skype?<br />If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World<br />521MM registered Users (+41% Y/Y)<br />8% of Cross-Border Calling Minutes<br />
  83. 83. The Cloud<br />
  84. 84. The Growing Cloud…<br />
  85. 85. The Growing Cloud…<br />Cloud computing is Internet- (&quot;cloud-&quot;) based development and use of computer technology (&quot;computing&quot;). In concept, it is a paradigm shift whereby details are abstracted from the users who no longer need knowledge of, expertise in, or control over the technology infrastructure &quot;in the cloud&quot; that supports them. Cloud computing describes a new supplement, consumption and delivery model for IT services based on Internet, and it typically involves the provision of dynamically scalable and often virtualized resources as a service over the Internet.<br />
  86. 86. The Growing Cloud…<br />Cloud computing is Internet- (&quot;cloud-&quot;) based development and use of computer technology (&quot;computing&quot;). In concept, it is a paradigm shift whereby details blah blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah<br />
  87. 87. You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive<br />
  88. 88. You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive<br />Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me<br />
  89. 89. You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive<br />Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me<br />Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed<br />
  90. 90. You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive<br />Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me<br />Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed<br />Some Popular Categories of Clouds<br />
  91. 91. You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive<br />Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me<br />Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed<br />Some Popular Categories of Clouds<br />Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS)<br />
  92. 92. You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive<br />Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me<br />Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed<br />Some Popular Categories of Clouds<br />Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS)<br />Utility Computing<br />
  93. 93. You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive<br />Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me<br />Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed<br />Some Popular Categories of Clouds<br />Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS)<br />Utility Computing<br />Platforms (Google App Engine, MS Azure, Amazon)<br />
  94. 94. You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive<br />Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me<br />Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed<br />Some Popular Categories of Clouds<br />Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS)<br />Utility Computing<br />Platforms (Google App Engine, MS Azure, Amazon)<br />My House has a Cloud<br />
  95. 95. Social Networks as Platforms<br />
  96. 96. Facebook = 500MM + Application Downloads<br />
  97. 97. Facebook Mobile…<br />
  98. 98. Facebook Mobile…<br />There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices<br />
  99. 99. Facebook Mobile…<br />There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices. <br />People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users. <br />
  100. 100. Facebook Mobile…<br />There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices. <br />People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users. <br />There are more than 180 mobile operators in 60 countries working to deploy and promote Facebook mobile products.<br />
  101. 101. Facebook Mobile…<br />There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices. <br />People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users. <br />There are more than 180 mobile operators in 60 countries working to deploy and promote Facebook mobile products.<br />Facebook is the Number One free iPhone App.<br />
  102. 102. Facebook + Apple iPhone<br />Driving independent / overlapping innovation / Usage in Social Networking + Mobile Platforms<br />
  103. 103. Facebook + Apple iPhone<br />Driving independent / overlapping innovation / Usage in Social Networking + Mobile Platforms<br />Facebook<br />iPhone/iTouch<br />430MM Users<br />(+137% Y/Y)<br />350K+ Apps<br />500MM+ Downloads<br />57MM Users<br />(+163% Y/Y)<br />100K+ Apps<br />2B+ Downloads<br />Social<br />Networking<br />Mobile<br />
  104. 104. Impressive Mobile Devices<br />
  105. 105. Impressive Mobile Devices<br />“Apple’s iPhone + iTouch + App Store Launches Over the Past 2.5 Years Created the Spark for Mobile Internet Liftoff as Microsoft’s Launch of Windows 3.0 did for the PC in 1990 and the Netscape Browser (and its IPO) did for the desktop Internet in 1995” - Morgan Stanley<br />
  106. 106. How Big?<br />
  107. 107. How Big?<br />Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in History<br />
  108. 108. How Big?<br />Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in HistoryGreat UI + Developer Tools + Hardware + Distribution + Powerful Connectivity (3G + WiFi)Nintendo Wii, Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, Apple iPod, RIM Blackberry<br />
  109. 109. How Big?<br />Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in HistoryGreat UI + Developer Tools + Hardware + Distribution + Powerful Connectivity (3G + WiFi)Nintendo Wii, Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, Apple iPod, RIM Blackberry<br />Apple iPhone / iTouch = 2B App Downloads<br />
  110. 110. How Big?<br />Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in HistoryGreat UI + Developer Tools + Hardware + Distribution + Powerful Connectivity (3G + WiFi)Nintendo Wii, Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, Apple iPod, RIM Blackberry<br />Apple iPhone / iTouch = 2B App DownloadsAbout 35 per UserGames, Books, Entertainment Lead<br />
  111. 111. How Big?<br />
  112. 112. Top Free Apps<br />
  113. 113. iPhone + Android Mobile Internet Usage Much Higher than Shipment Share<br />
  114. 114. iPhone + Android Mobile Internet Usage Much Higher than Shipment Share<br />High Probability of On-Going Share Gains Based on Consumer Voting<br />
  115. 115. Most / Best Apps Win!<br />
  116. 116. Yeah, so?<br />
  117. 117. “This is a bit like looking at the emergence of the railroads in the 1800s and saying, ‘I have no interest in going to Chicago. What’s the big Deal?’” - Joshua Michele-Ross<br />Yeah, so?<br />
  118. 118. Coordination Replaces Planning<br />
  119. 119. Coordination Replaces Planning<br />Real-time Communications (Twitter)<br />
  120. 120. Coordination Replaces Planning<br />Real-time Communications (Twitter)<br />Just-in-Time Coordination over planning<br />
  121. 121. Coordination Replaces Planning<br />Real-time Communications (Twitter)<br />Just-in-Time Coordination over planning<br />More efficient, more flexible<br />
  122. 122. Coordination Replaces Planning<br />Real-time Communications (Twitter)<br />Just-in-Time Coordination over planning<br />More efficient, more flexible<br />Think Army, “Situation at hand”<br />
  123. 123. Coordination Replaces Planning<br />Real-time Communications (Twitter)<br />Just-in-Time Coordination over planning<br />More efficient, more flexible<br />Think Army, “Situation at hand”<br />Spontaneous gathering, loosely coordinated agents in constant contact<br />
  124. 124. Coordination Replaces Planning<br />Real-time Communications (Twitter)<br />Just-in-Time Coordination over planning<br />More efficient, more flexible<br />Think Army, “Situation at hand”<br />Spontaneous gathering, loosely coordinated agents in constant contact<br />Increased role for employees<br />
  125. 125. More than Phones & Computers<br />
  126. 126. More than Phones & Computers<br />Data Gathering devices<br />
  127. 127. More than Phones & Computers<br />Data Gathering devices<br />Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware (Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.<br />
  128. 128. More than Phones & Computers<br />Data Gathering devices<br />Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware (Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.<br />Environmental Sensor<br />
  129. 129. More than Phones & Computers<br />Data Gathering devices<br />Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware (Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.<br />Environmental Sensor<br />Not only connected, but actively accepting input<br />
  130. 130. More than Phones & Computers<br />Data Gathering devices<br />Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware (Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.<br />Environmental Sensor<br />Not only connected, but actively accepting input<br />Track our own behavior (Monitor our health)<br />
  131. 131. The New Laptop<br />
  132. 132. The New Laptop<br />Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware<br />
  133. 133. The New Laptop<br />Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware<br />Keyboards and palm sized projectors coming soon<br />
  134. 134. The New Laptop<br />Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware<br />Keyboards and palm sized projectors coming soon<br />Increases in processing power and storage capacity<br />
  135. 135. The New Laptop<br />Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware<br />Keyboards and palm sized projectors coming soon<br />Increases in processing power and storage capacity<br />Mobile devices will become the de facto standard gear for knowledge work<br />
  136. 136. The New Marketplace<br />
  137. 137. The New Marketplace<br />The Long Tail (Micropayments)<br />
  138. 138. The New Marketplace<br />The Long Tail (Micropayments)<br />The moment of need or impulse<br />
  139. 139. The New Marketplace<br />The Long Tail (Micropayments)<br />The moment of need or impulse<br />Empowered Customers<br />
  140. 140. The New Marketplace<br />The Long Tail (Micropayments)<br />The moment of need or impulse<br />Empowered Customers<br />Peer-to-Peer exchanges<br />
  141. 141. Know This Person<br />
  142. 142. It’s You.<br />Know This Person<br />

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