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Mobile Landscape
 

Mobile Landscape

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    Mobile Landscape Mobile Landscape Presentation Transcript

    • Mobile landscape
      A snapshot for 2010
    • Why mobile? Why now?
    • Also, why “snapshot”?
    • A little context helps…
    • But First…
    • What is a computer?
    • What is a computer?
      Input
    • What is a computer?
      Input
      Processor / Storage
    • What is a computer?
      Input
      Processor / Storage
      Output
    • What is a computer?
      Input
      Processor / Storage
      OutputThink about that…
    • Computing Power
    • 1995
      Power Macintosh 7200/75
      $1700
      75MHz PowerPC 601 Processor
      16 MB RAM
    • 2010
      iPhone 3Gs
      $500
      600MHz ARM Processor
      256 MB RAM
    • Data Transfer Rates
    • My Facebook Page is 210K…
    • My Facebook Page is 210K
      56 kilobits per second
      30 seconds to download
      56K Modem
    • My Facebook Page is 210K
      56 kilobits per second
      30 seconds to download
      128 – 384 kilobits per second (moving)
      4 to 8 seconds to download
      56K Modem
      3G Network
    • What’s that mean?
      • Faster
      • Cheaper
      • Portable
      What’s that mean?
    • The 5th Computing Cycle!
    • Um, what were the other four?
      The 5th Computing Cycle!
    • Glad you asked!
      The 5th Computing Cycle!
    • The 5 cycles of computing
    • The 5 cycles of computing
      Mainframe Computing – 1960s
    • The 5 cycles of computing
      Mainframe Computing – 1960s
      Mini Computing – 1970s
    • The 5 cycles of computing
      Mainframe Computing – 1960s
      Mini Computing – 1970s
      Personal Computing – 1980s
    • The 5 cycles of computing
      Mainframe Computing – 1960s
      Mini Computing – 1970s
      Personal Computing – 1980s
      Desktop Internet Computing – 1990s
    • The 5 cycles of computing
      Mainframe Computing – 1960s
      Mini Computing – 1970s
      Personal Computing – 1980s
      Desktop Internet Computing – 1990s
      Mobile Internet Computing – 2000s
    • The 5 cycles of computing
      Mainframe Computing – 1960s (1 Million units)
      Mini Computing – 1970s (10 Million units)
      Personal Computing – 1980s (100 Million units)
      Desktop Internet Computing – 1990s (1 Billion units)
      Mobile Internet Computing – 2000s (10 Billion units)
      Reduce Usage Friction Via Better Processor Power + Improved User Interface + Smaller Form Factor + Expanded Services + Lower Prices = 10X More Devices
    • Why is this happening?
    • A Perfect Storm of Convergence
    • A Perfect Storm of Convergence
      3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point”
    • A Perfect Storm of Convergence
      3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point”
      Video Adoption Rates
    • A Perfect Storm of Convergence
      3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point”
      Video Adoption Rates
      VoIP Technology
    • A Perfect Storm of Convergence
      3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point”
      Video Adoption Rates
      VoIP Technology
      The Cloud
    • A Perfect Storm of Convergence
      3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point”
      Video Adoption Rates
      VoIP Technology
      The Cloud
      Social Networks as Platforms Connecting Consumers
    • A Perfect Storm of Convergence
      3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point”
      Video Adoption Rates
      VoIP Technology
      The Cloud
      Social Networks as Platforms Connecting Consumers
      Impressive Mobile Devices
    • “Regarding the pace of change, we believe more users will likely connect to the Internet via mobile devices than desktop PCs within 5 years” - Morgan Stanley
    • 3G Networks
    • 3G Defined
    • 3G Defined
      3G Stands for 3rd-generation. Analog cellular phones were the first generation. Digital phones marked the second generation (2G).
    • 3G Defined
      3G Stands for 3rd-generation. Analog cellular phones were the first generation. Digital phones marked the second generation (2G).
      3G is loosely defined, but generally includes high data speeds, always-on data access, and greater voice capacity.
    • 3G Defined
      3G Stands for 3rd-generation. Analog cellular phones were the first generation. Digital phones marked the second generation (2G).
      3G is loosely defined, but generally includes high data speeds, always-on data access, and greater voice capacity.
      The high data speeds are possibly the most prominent feature, and certainly the most hyped. They enable such advanced features as live, streaming video.
    • 2010 ‘Mainstream’ Inflection
    • 2010 ‘Mainstream’ Inflection
    • 3G Growth
    • 3G Growth
      Concentrated in Developed Markets
    • 3G Growth
      Concentrated in Developed Markets
      USA Now leading in Users & Innovation
    • 3G Growth
      Concentrated in Developed Markets
      USA Now leading in Users & Innovation
      Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009
    • 3G Growth
      Concentrated in Developed Markets
      USA Now leading in Users & Innovation
      Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009
      103,110,000 US Subscribers
      94,813,000 Japanese Subscribers
    • 3G Growth
      Concentrated in Developed Markets
      USA Now leading in Users & Innovation
      Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009
      103,110,000 US Subscribers
      94,813,000 Japanese Subscribers
      Japanese Penetration = 87%
    • 3G Growth
      Concentrated in Developed Markets
      USA Now leading in Users & Innovation
      Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009
      103,110,000 US Subscribers
      94,813,000 Japanese Subscribers
      Japanese Penetration = 87%
      US Penetration = 37%
    • Other Wireless Options…
    • Other Wireless Options…
      GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold
    • Other Wireless Options…
      GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments
    • Other Wireless Options…
      GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments
      Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008
    • Other Wireless Options…
      GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments
      Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008Estimate 60% of iPhone/iTouch usage may be on Wi-Fi providing a crucial (and 10X faster) offload to stressed 3G networks
    • Other Wireless Options…
      GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments
      Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008Estimate 60% of iPhone/iTouch usage may be on Wi-Fi providing a crucial (and 10X faster) offload to stressed 3G networks
      1.3B Bluetooth enabled devices shipped in 2008
    • Other Wireless Options…
      GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments
      Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008Estimate 60% of iPhone/iTouch usage may be on Wi-Fi providing a crucial (and 10X faster) offload to stressed 3G networks
      1.3B Bluetooth enabled devices shipped in 20082B+ Bluetooth devices currently in use
    • Video Adoption Rates
    • Consumers Have Voted
    • Consumers Have Voted
      466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)
    • Consumers Have Voted
      466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)
      42 MM Hulu US Users (+77% Y/Y)
    • Consumers Have Voted
      466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)
      42 MM Hulu US Users (+77% Y/Y)
      167 Online Video USA Users (+14% Y/Y)109B Minutes of Video Watched (+169% Y/Y)
    • Consumers Have Voted
      466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)
      42 MM Hulu US Users (+77% Y/Y)
      167 Online Video USA Users (+14% Y/Y)109B Minutes of Video Watched (+169% Y/Y)
      54 MM Global Internet-enabled set top boxes (Xbox360, Sony PS3, TiVo, Slingbox, Vudu, Roku…) (+59% Y/Y) – Transforming TVs into internet streaming / on-demand video terminals
    • Video Driving Growth
    • Video Driving Growth
      Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times
    • Video Driving Growth
      Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times
      Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic took
    • Video Driving Growth
      Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times
      Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic tookThe internet grew from 1 petabyte to 1 exabyte in 14 years. Mobile will do the same in seven.
    • Video Driving Growth
      Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times
      Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic tookThe internet grew from 1 petabyte to 1 exabyte in 14 years. Mobile will do the same in seven.
      Almost 64% of the world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013
    • Video Driving Growth
      Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times
      Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic tookThe internet grew from 1 petabyte to 1 exabyte in 14 years. Mobile will do the same in seven.
      Almost 64% of the world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013Mobile video has the highest growth rate ever measured by the “Cisco VNI forecast”.
    • Video Driving Growth
      Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013
    • Video Driving Growth
      Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013A single high-end phone like the iPhone/Android generates more data traffic than 30 basic-feature cell phones. A laptop aircard generates more data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phones.
    • Video Driving Growth
      Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013A single high-end phone like the iPhone/Android generates more data traffic than 30 basic-feature cell phones. A laptop aircard generates more data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phones.
      Latin America will have the strongest growth of any region (166% CAGR)
    • VoIP (Voice Over IP)
    • Whither Skype?
    • Whither Skype?
      If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World
    • Whither Skype?
      If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World
      521MM registered Users (+41% Y/Y)
    • Whither Skype?
      If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World
      521MM registered Users (+41% Y/Y)
      8% of Cross-Border Calling Minutes
    • Whither Skype?
      If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World
      521MM registered Users (+41% Y/Y)
      8% of Cross-Border Calling Minutes
    • The Cloud
    • The Growing Cloud…
    • The Growing Cloud…
      Cloud computing is Internet- ("cloud-") based development and use of computer technology ("computing"). In concept, it is a paradigm shift whereby details are abstracted from the users who no longer need knowledge of, expertise in, or control over the technology infrastructure "in the cloud" that supports them. Cloud computing describes a new supplement, consumption and delivery model for IT services based on Internet, and it typically involves the provision of dynamically scalable and often virtualized resources as a service over the Internet.
    • The Growing Cloud…
      Cloud computing is Internet- ("cloud-") based development and use of computer technology ("computing"). In concept, it is a paradigm shift whereby details blah blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah
    • You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive
    • You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive
      Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me
    • You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive
      Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me
      Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed
    • You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive
      Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me
      Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed
      Some Popular Categories of Clouds
    • You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive
      Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me
      Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed
      Some Popular Categories of Clouds
      Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS)
    • You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive
      Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me
      Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed
      Some Popular Categories of Clouds
      Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS)
      Utility Computing
    • You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive
      Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me
      Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed
      Some Popular Categories of Clouds
      Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS)
      Utility Computing
      Platforms (Google App Engine, MS Azure, Amazon)
    • You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive
      Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me
      Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed
      Some Popular Categories of Clouds
      Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS)
      Utility Computing
      Platforms (Google App Engine, MS Azure, Amazon)
      My House has a Cloud
    • Social Networks as Platforms
    • Facebook = 500MM + Application Downloads
    • Facebook Mobile…
    • Facebook Mobile…
      There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices
    • Facebook Mobile…
      There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices.
      People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users.
    • Facebook Mobile…
      There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices.
      People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users.
      There are more than 180 mobile operators in 60 countries working to deploy and promote Facebook mobile products.
    • Facebook Mobile…
      There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices.
      People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users.
      There are more than 180 mobile operators in 60 countries working to deploy and promote Facebook mobile products.
      Facebook is the Number One free iPhone App.
    • Facebook + Apple iPhone
      Driving independent / overlapping innovation / Usage in Social Networking + Mobile Platforms
    • Facebook + Apple iPhone
      Driving independent / overlapping innovation / Usage in Social Networking + Mobile Platforms
      Facebook
      iPhone/iTouch
      430MM Users
      (+137% Y/Y)
      350K+ Apps
      500MM+ Downloads
      57MM Users
      (+163% Y/Y)
      100K+ Apps
      2B+ Downloads
      Social
      Networking
      Mobile
    • Impressive Mobile Devices
    • Impressive Mobile Devices
      “Apple’s iPhone + iTouch + App Store Launches Over the Past 2.5 Years Created the Spark for Mobile Internet Liftoff as Microsoft’s Launch of Windows 3.0 did for the PC in 1990 and the Netscape Browser (and its IPO) did for the desktop Internet in 1995” - Morgan Stanley
    • How Big?
    • How Big?
      Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in History
    • How Big?
      Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in HistoryGreat UI + Developer Tools + Hardware + Distribution + Powerful Connectivity (3G + WiFi)Nintendo Wii, Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, Apple iPod, RIM Blackberry
    • How Big?
      Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in HistoryGreat UI + Developer Tools + Hardware + Distribution + Powerful Connectivity (3G + WiFi)Nintendo Wii, Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, Apple iPod, RIM Blackberry
      Apple iPhone / iTouch = 2B App Downloads
    • How Big?
      Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in HistoryGreat UI + Developer Tools + Hardware + Distribution + Powerful Connectivity (3G + WiFi)Nintendo Wii, Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, Apple iPod, RIM Blackberry
      Apple iPhone / iTouch = 2B App DownloadsAbout 35 per UserGames, Books, Entertainment Lead
    • How Big?
    • Top Free Apps
    • iPhone + Android Mobile Internet Usage Much Higher than Shipment Share
    • iPhone + Android Mobile Internet Usage Much Higher than Shipment Share
      High Probability of On-Going Share Gains Based on Consumer Voting
    • Most / Best Apps Win!
    • Yeah, so?
    • “This is a bit like looking at the emergence of the railroads in the 1800s and saying, ‘I have no interest in going to Chicago. What’s the big Deal?’” - Joshua Michele-Ross
      Yeah, so?
    • Coordination Replaces Planning
    • Coordination Replaces Planning
      Real-time Communications (Twitter)
    • Coordination Replaces Planning
      Real-time Communications (Twitter)
      Just-in-Time Coordination over planning
    • Coordination Replaces Planning
      Real-time Communications (Twitter)
      Just-in-Time Coordination over planning
      More efficient, more flexible
    • Coordination Replaces Planning
      Real-time Communications (Twitter)
      Just-in-Time Coordination over planning
      More efficient, more flexible
      Think Army, “Situation at hand”
    • Coordination Replaces Planning
      Real-time Communications (Twitter)
      Just-in-Time Coordination over planning
      More efficient, more flexible
      Think Army, “Situation at hand”
      Spontaneous gathering, loosely coordinated agents in constant contact
    • Coordination Replaces Planning
      Real-time Communications (Twitter)
      Just-in-Time Coordination over planning
      More efficient, more flexible
      Think Army, “Situation at hand”
      Spontaneous gathering, loosely coordinated agents in constant contact
      Increased role for employees
    • More than Phones & Computers
    • More than Phones & Computers
      Data Gathering devices
    • More than Phones & Computers
      Data Gathering devices
      Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware (Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.
    • More than Phones & Computers
      Data Gathering devices
      Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware (Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.
      Environmental Sensor
    • More than Phones & Computers
      Data Gathering devices
      Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware (Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.
      Environmental Sensor
      Not only connected, but actively accepting input
    • More than Phones & Computers
      Data Gathering devices
      Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware (Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.
      Environmental Sensor
      Not only connected, but actively accepting input
      Track our own behavior (Monitor our health)
    • The New Laptop
    • The New Laptop
      Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware
    • The New Laptop
      Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware
      Keyboards and palm sized projectors coming soon
    • The New Laptop
      Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware
      Keyboards and palm sized projectors coming soon
      Increases in processing power and storage capacity
    • The New Laptop
      Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware
      Keyboards and palm sized projectors coming soon
      Increases in processing power and storage capacity
      Mobile devices will become the de facto standard gear for knowledge work
    • The New Marketplace
    • The New Marketplace
      The Long Tail (Micropayments)
    • The New Marketplace
      The Long Tail (Micropayments)
      The moment of need or impulse
    • The New Marketplace
      The Long Tail (Micropayments)
      The moment of need or impulse
      Empowered Customers
    • The New Marketplace
      The Long Tail (Micropayments)
      The moment of need or impulse
      Empowered Customers
      Peer-to-Peer exchanges
    • Know This Person
    • It’s You.
      Know This Person