The Forty-Year Cycle in Culture and Society
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The Forty-Year Cycle in Culture and Society

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In the past few decades, we've seen rising distrust in public institutions, unpopular wars, and lackluster economic growth. Why does it feel like we are repeating the 70's? We may be experiencing a ...

In the past few decades, we've seen rising distrust in public institutions, unpopular wars, and lackluster economic growth. Why does it feel like we are repeating the 70's? We may be experiencing a forty-year cycle that goes back (at least) to the 1890's and seems to offer some useful insights into what to expect for the 2020's and beyond.

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The Forty-Year Cycle in Culture and Society Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Déjà Vu All Over Again The Forty-Year Cycle in Culture and Society Jim Lee, APF Trends Breakfast University & Whist Club
  • 2. History seldom repeats itself, but it usually rhymes… Mark Twain
  • 3. Why are we reliving the 1970’s?
  • 4. Speaking as a GenXer
  • 5. Economic Discontent Current 1970’s 1930’s
  • 6. Unpopular Presidents Current 1970’s 1930’s
  • 7. Crafting, Artisanal Everything Current 1970’s 1930’s
  • 8. Folk Music Current 1960’s & 1970’s 1930’s
  • 9. Social Experimentation Current 1970’s 1930’s
  • 10. What about the 1890’s?
  • 11. What about the 1890’s?
  • 12. 1920’s 1960’s 2000’s 1930’s 1970’s 2010’s 1950’s 1990’s 2030’s 1940’s 1980’s 2020’s Values and Expression 40-45 Year Cycle ExternalInternal Relational Material
  • 13. • Internal/Relational: The excesses of the previous decades are brought into question at an individual level. Real estate values peak. The social fabric unravels and there is a shifting focus towards social reform. Young adults become less conformist and more counter-cultural. (1920’s, 1960’s, 2000’s) • External/Relational: This is a period of public unrest and skepticism. Standards of living are redefined. The economy is in a state of prolonged stagnation, yet major progress is made in terms of providing for social equality and environmental sustainability. Institutions eventually hit the “reset” button, providing a foundation for new growth and prosperity. (1930’s, 1970’s, 2010’s) • External/Material: Is a period of rising optimism. It is typically a “golden age” period for conservatism and business. There is privatization, de-regulation and a less involved government. (1940s, 1980’s, 2020’s) • Internal/Material: The focus shifts somewhat towards the family. Politics are still conservative, and the economy has stabilized into a period of predictable economic growth. Wealth and power becomes more concentrated. Eventually, success leads to excess – leading to speculative bubbles. (1950’s, 1990’s, 2030’s)
  • 14. • Values: Material vs. Relational • Expression: Internal vs. External Values & Expression Cycle
  • 15. Relational • Declining social mood • Reform • Social Capital • Uncertainty • Counter-culture • Localism/Isolationism Values Cycle Material • Rising social mood • Growth • Financial Capital • Confidence • Conformity • Globalism/Aggression
  • 16. Expression Cycle Internal • Thought • Family • Nesting External • Action • Individual • Exploration 
  • 17. Arrogance/ Shock Anger Confidence Optimism The Socionomic Connection Declining Social Mood Rising Social Mood ActionContemplation
  • 18. A Possible Future – Previewing the 2020’s Politics: Smaller, more limited government. Rise of a “big man.” Science: Massive innovations coming to market based on AI, smart robotics, ubiquitous computing, personalized genomics, energy storage technologies. Return of ambitious science projects. Culture: Careful re-examination of male gender roles (to reach fruition by 2030’s). Greater pressures toward conformity. Designers as brands. Digital nomads, urbanization, and the continued rise of status cities. Entertainment: More goofball humor and fewer “dark” themes. Kawaii gets big. Increasingly, the audience chooses outcomes of stories. Economy: New bull market after restructuring (repudiation?) of the U.S. debt. Focus on emerging markets for growth.
  • 19. Thinking about Tomorrow (Koans for Futurists) • What is work without employment? • What is the role of men in a culture with less need for risk-taking, physicality, or territoriality? • How does one conform within a post-modern society? • What is rare within an economy of abundance? • What does it mean to be human?
  • 20. DISCLOSURES • Strategic Foresight Investments LLC ("StratFI") is a Registered Investment Advisor ("RIA"), registered in the State of Delaware. StratFI provides asset management and related services for clients nationally. • Information contained in this report is for informational and educational purposes only and is not to be considered investment advice or a recommendation to purchase any particular security. One should not engage in a market timing strategy without professional guidance or training, monitoring tools, and the ability to bear losses. • Market data, trends and other content in this presentation are based on generally-available information and are believed to be reliable. StratFI does not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in this presentation. Information is also time-bound and subject to change over time. • StratFI will provide all prospective clients with a copy of our current Form ADV, ("Brochure") prior to commencing an Advisory relationship. Existing clients will receive a copy on an annual basis. However, at anytime, you can view our current Form ADV, Part 2 online. This document also details our firm's Privacy Policy. In addition, you can contact us at jlee@stratfi.com • If you have any questions regarding this presentation, please contact us.