Growth and innovation strategy electric car presentation
1.
2. In 1900, Electric cars outnumbered gas-
powered cars in NYC by a margin of 2:1
3. Rising Oil Prices Driving Renewed
Interest in Electric Vehicles
Crude Oil Prices, 1960 - 2009
2nd Wake-up Peaked at $147
Call:
per Barrel in July
1979/80 Oil
Crisis 2008
1st Wake-up Call:
1973
Oil Embargo
Source: US Energy Information Administration
4. It’s been a Bumpy Road for the
Electric Vehicle (EV)
Past
• The Past: Why it failed the first time
Present
• The Present: Are we Ready?
Future
• The Future: Jumping the Chasm
5. First, Let’s Go Back in Time
Past
Present
Future
Source: Nova. Making Stuff Cleaner. February 2, 2011
6. The Automobile Market in the early
1900’s
• In 1900, there were a total of 2,370 automobiles
Past in New York, Chicago, and Boston
• Electric vehicles had 28% market share of the
4,192 cars produced in the US.
Present
• There were some 12 manufacturers of electric
vehicles in the US (Whitney, Pope, Baker)
• In 1906, Baker Electric made 800 electric cars,
Future
making them the largest electric vehicle maker in
the world
7. So Who Killed The Electric Car…
the first time around?
Past
Present
Future
8. The Cause of Death Has been
Determined
Past
• Henry Ford & the Model T assembly line
• Discovery of Texas crude oil in 1901
• Invention of the electric starter
Present
• Lack of the necessary widespread
infrastructure needed for recharging
Future • Highways brought about the need for
longer–range vehicles
9. It’s been a Bumpy Road for the
Electric Vehicle (EV)
Past
• The Past: Why it failed the first time
Present
• The Present: Are we Ready?
Future
• The Future: Jumping the Chasm
10. Renewed Interest and the “Buzz”
• Catastrophes (BP oil spill) affecting
Past policy makers
• Growing dependency on limited supplies
of foreign oil
Present
• Spiraling gasoline prices
• Increasing CO2 emission concerns and the
Future
Green movement
• Battery tech advancements
11. Global Energy Demand Expected
to rise 44% by 2030
World Energy Demand by Fuel Source
(1980 to 2030)
Millions of Tons of Oil Equivalent
Source: World Energy Outlook 2009, International Energy Agency
12. The RG Model: Dissecting the EV
(Market)
Factors Details
Past
Price How much extra do I have to pay?
Present Range How far can I go on one charge?
Convenience Where can I recharge my batteries?
Future
Environmental What are the environmental benefits?
12
13. Global Oil Production Plateaus
World oil production by type
Global oil production reaches 96 mb/d in 2035 on the back of rising output of
natural gas liquids & unconventional oil, as crude oil production plateaus
Source: World Energy Outlook 2010, International Energy Agency
14. The RG Model: Dissecting the EV
(Technology)
3 Forms of EV
Past
•BEV (purely electric, zero emission)
•HEV (hybrid with extended range due to gasoline
supplement)
•PHEV (plug-in hybrid combines some benefits of both)
Present
Advantages
•Efficient energy conversion (captures 80% mechanical energy
vs. 25% -- 3x the distance)
Future •Silent and smoother ride
•Electric motors require less maintenance
•Long run cost savings (affordance)
•Government incentives
15. The RG Model: Dissecting the EV
(Technology)
Challenges
•Driving range (based on battery limitations)
Past •Recharge time (up to 8 hours)
•Battery cost
•Initial purchase price (affordance)
•Consumer misconceptions EV Value Map Over Time
Present •Exploding battery myth (Due to Fuel Cost Savings)
•Flimsy and unsafe High
Worse Value
•Underpowered Premium
EV Automobiles
Relative Price
Tesla Roadster (Supercar Redefined)
Average
Future Low Better Value
EV Automobiles
Economy
Inferior Superior
Source: http://www.teslamotors.com/roadster/
Performance ?
•288 hp @ 5000-6000 rpm. 215 kWh. (0-60mph in 3.7 seconds)
•Range: 245 miles
•Max Speed: 125 mph
•Starting Price: $108,000 (qualifies for $7,500 federal tax credit)
16. The RG Model: Dissecting the EV
(Firm)
Chevrolet Volt (2011 Motor Trend
General Motors (Chevrolet) Car of the Year)
•Ramping up in anticipation of healthy
Past forecasts for EVs.
•GM predicts it will sell 10,000 Volts in
2011 and between 35,000 and 45,000 in
2012 Source: gmvolt.com
•1.4 Liter. 149 hp. 16 kWh Lithium-ion
Rechargeable Battery
•“Not a science experiment - but meant •Range: 35 miles on a single charge (followed by
Present to be a high-volume vehicle”
gas generator for additional 340 miles)
•Max Speed: 100 mph
•Starting Price: $32,780 (qualifies for $7,500
federal tax credit)
Nissan
•Nissan has long lines of prospective Nissan LEAF (100% Electric)
buyers - about 24,000 reservations
Future •Nissan’s CEO Carlos Ghosn announced a
$1.7 billion investment in a lithium-ion
battery plant
•Nissan is dropping $5 billion from 2007 Source: http://www.nissanusa.com/leaf-electric-car/index#/leaf-electric-car/index
to 2012 for its ambitious play to be the •80 kWh AC synchronous electric motor
•Range: 100 miles per charge
•Max Speed: 90 mph
leader in electric cars •Starting Price: $26,220 (qualifies for $7,500 federal tax
credit)
17. Present Day: Nissan Leaf gets
99 MPG-Equivalent
• 80 kWh AC synchronous
electric motor
• Range: 100 miles per charge
• Max Speed: 90 mph
• Starting Price: $32,780
(qualifies for $7,500 federal tax
credit)
Source: CNNMoney
18. The RG Model: Dissecting the EV
(Firm)
Standardization: A Double Edged Sword
•Accelerate the growth of a huge new market for auto manufacturers
Past •Bring greater value to the consumer
•Constrains the size and configuration of batteries (swapping)
•Requires major infrastructure changes
•Cooperation and coopetition amongst competitors will catalyze
standardization and growth of EV market
Present •Sponsorship challenges: consumer misconceptions & battery limitations
•Government is nonetheless, eager to support
Structurational Property Coopetitional Property
Standards both enable and Common standards require
constrain cooperation among competitors
Future
Sponsorship Challenges
• Inertia & resistance to mobilization
• Potential for fragmentation
• Legitimacy traps
19. Marketing Chasm
Everyone else
Past
Present
Future
Environmentalists
20. Market vs. Offerings
Past Car Company Design Model Price
Nissan Leaf $26,220
Present
Chevy Volt $32,780
Future
Tesla Roadster $108,000
Source: www.generalmotors/volt, www.nissanusa.com, www.teslamotors.com
21. It’s been a Bumpy Road for the
Electric Vehicle (EV)
Past
• The Past: Why it failed the first time
Present
• The Present: Are we Ready?
Future
• The Future: Jumping the Chasm
22. What’s next?
Global Auto Market
Past
0
9.9
8.6
Present
EV Market
Hybrids
81.5 Gasoline-powered
Future
HIS Global Insights, 2009.
23. Sales of Electric and Hybrids represent
70% of New Car Sales in 2035
Past
Present
Future
Source: World Energy Outlook 2010, International Energy Agency
24. Multiple Strategies
“All in” – complete line by 2012
Past
Present Renault-Nissan Alliance
More conservative - one production model
Future
25. Multiple Strategies
From niche market to mass production
Past
Present
Future Will mass production be the beginning of the end
for gas-power vehicles?
26. Overcoming objections:
Battery range
New designs:
Past
• Gasoline-powered battery
generators
Present
• “LifeDrive” concept
lightweight bodies
Future
27. Getting help:
Incentives, open innovation
Government incentives:
Past
• Pushing companies to move into
market now in order to take
advantage of these incentives
• But, majority of automakers believe
Present EVs will still be too expensive for
mass market for next 5 years.
• However, 68% are entering into
strategic alliances with others in
value chain.
Future
28. Getting help:
Incentives, open innovation
• Seeing trends towards open innovation models to reduce
Past costs, spread risk
• Evolution of the current value chain - opening up potential
for others to lead with technology innovation
• Potential to disrupt current
traditional markets
Present (oil change centers,
suppliers, etc.)
• Creating opportunity
for new support
services
Future
29. The EV market:
What can be learned?
• Innovative technologies never really die, they can stay dormant
Past and activate when conditions are right
• Adoption of Innovative technology requires that internal and
external factors are aligned
Present
• Without the right infrastructure, EVs will not reach full market
adoption
• The bigger the innovation, the longer it takes to adopt
Future
• New innovations can be disruptive and create opportunities at
the same time
30. Getting help:
Incentives, open innovation
Infrastructure?
Past
• New opportunities for revenue at local level (re-charge
stations)
• Standardization
for automation
Present (new technology
opportunities)
Future
36. Electric Vehicle (EV)
Cost Validation
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. April 2010
37.
38. The Rebate Plan For Electric Cars
•The Obama administration's proposed plan gives $7,500 to electric car
buyers as a rebate instead of making customers wait for a tax credit.
Past •Qualifying plug-in cars depending on the size of their vehicle's battery pack.
Businesses get tax credits from $15,000 to $100,000 for buying plug-in
trucks or other electric commercial vehicles.
•Under the plan makes car dealers don’t incur the cost on the forefront as
the laws are structured now
Present
$2.4B
Build Factories
Future
2009 Stimulus
Package
$2B
Make $400M
batteries, motors Manufacture
and other Charging Stations
components and Car Testing
39. London Electric Car Market
Past 40 mile
2 seat range
limitation
Present Long
charge
time
Future
Stagnant Sales
40. London’s Goal to Lead Europe in
Electric Cars
Government offer subsidies up to £5,000 to encourage purchasing electric
or plug-in hybrid cars
Past Government has £250m plan to promote low carbon transport over the
next five years, and £20m for charging stations and other necessary
infrastructure.
The Tesla Roadster and Mitsubishi i-Miev are the only vehicle eligible for the
grant
Present
70 mile
range
60 mph Safety
Future high speed standard
capability satisfaction
Grant
Requirements
41. India’s Contributions to the Electric
Car Market
•The ministry of new and renewable energy announced a 20% financial
incentive on the price of electric cars and scooters sold.
Past
•Under the plan every electric car sold in the next two years will be eligible
for incentive.
Present
Factory Price Reduction
1 Lakh Electric Cars
Future Rs60000 7 Seat 3 Wheelers
Rs50000 High-Speed Electric 2
Wheelers
Rs40000 Low-Speed Electric 2 Wheelers
42. The Rebate Plan For Electric Cars
•The Obama administration's proposed plan gives $7,500 to electric car
buyers as a rebate instead of making customers wait for a tax credit.
Past •Qualifying plug-in cars depending on the size of their vehicle's battery pack.
Businesses get tax credits from $15,000 to $100,000 for buying plug-in
trucks or other electric commercial vehicles.
•Under the plan makes car dealers don’t incur the cost on the forefront as
the laws are structured now
Present
$2.4B
Build Factories
Future
2009 Stimulus
Package
$2B
Make $400M
batteries, motors Manufacture
and other Charging Stations
components and Car Testing
43. London Electric Car Market
Past 40 mile
2 seat range
limitation
Present Long
charge
time
Future
Stagnant Sales
44. London’s Goal to Lead Europe in
Electric Cars
Government offer subsidies up to £5,000 to encourage purchasing electric
or plug-in hybrid cars
Past Government has £250m plan to promote low carbon transport over the
next five years, and £20m for charging stations and other necessary
infrastructure.
The Tesla Roadster and Mitsubishi i-Miev are the only vehicle eligible for the
grant
Present
70 mile
range
60 mph Safety
Future high speed standard
capability satisfaction
Grant
Requirements
45. India’s Contributions to the Electric
Car Market
•The ministry of new and renewable energy announced a 20% financial
incentive on the price of electric cars and scooters sold.
Past
•Under the plan every electric car sold in the next two years will be eligible
for incentive.
Present
Factory Price Reduction
1 Lakh Electric Cars
Future Rs60000 7 Seat 3 Wheelers
Rs50000 High-Speed Electric 2
Wheelers
Rs40000 Low-Speed Electric 2 Wheelers
46. Getting help:
Incentives, open innovation
Infrastructure?
Past
• New opportunities for revenue at local level (re-charge
stations)
• Standardization
for automation
Present (new technology
opportunities)
Future
Editor's Notes
EVs cannot travel many of the long distances without recharging. For daily driving distances greater than the electric range, this study assumes that the vehicle recharges each time it reaches its maximum range. This increases the frequency of daily driving distances at the maximum EV range, as seen in Figure 3. This is an optimistic assumption for EVs because it assumes greater use than is likely, and thus higher fuel cost savings, for EVs. It assumes greater use than likely would occur because people may use a different vehicle for long trips to avoid having to stop along the way and take the time to recharge.
http://video.pbs.org/video/1768954299
Of the 2,370: 1,170 were steamers, 800 were electrics, and only 400 were gasoline-powered http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CRwEXaHTwsYhttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/tech/making-stuff-cleaner.html
For a purely electric car like the Nissan Leaf, a cost comparison would be very straightforward. The EPA assumes you drive 15,000 miles a year, gas is at $3.20 a gallon, and electricity costs 11 cents per kilowatt hour. In those conditions, it's estimated the Leaf would cost you $561 a year in electricity. For the Nissan Versa, a similar-sized gas-powered car, it'd be about $1,444 a year for gasoline. So your fuel savings compared to the Leaf would run $883 a year. By comparison, the annual fuel cost of a Toyota Prius, which the EPA estimates gets 50 miles a gallon, is $867 so the savings is $306.
EVs cannot travel many of the long distances without recharging. For daily driving distances greater than the electric range, this study assumes that the vehicle recharges each time it reaches its maximum range. This increases the frequency of daily driving distances at the maximum EV range, as seen in Figure 3. This is an optimistic assumption for EVs because it assumes greater use than is likely, and thus higher fuel cost savings, for EVs. It assumes greater use than likely would occur because people may use a different vehicle for long trips to avoid having to stop along the way and take the time to recharge.
Figure was generated using the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) DAYPUB database and filtering consistent with SAE J2841. The frequency of occurrence assumed 2-mile bins with a total of 600 bins, which was required to capture the maximum daily driving distance of 1200 miles. While long trips are infrequent, they are important because their length can make them a significant portion of the total miles traveled.
For a purely electric car like the Nissan Leaf, a cost comparison would be very straightforward. The EPA assumes you drive 15,000 miles a year, gas is at $3.20 a gallon, and electricity costs 11 cents per kilowatt hour. In those conditions, it's estimated the Leaf would cost you $561 a year in electricity. For the Nissan Versa, a similar-sized gas-powered car, it'd be about $1,444 a year for gasoline. So your fuel savings compared to the Leaf would run $883 a year.
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act provided $2.4 billion in loans to build three electric-car factories since 2009, and allocated $2 billion in grants to make batteries, motors and other components in 30 factories. The stimulus package also included $400 million to install charging stations and to carry out electric-car field trials, both to collect data about driving experiences and electric cars' impact on the electric grid
Sales in the electric car market have stagnated due to numerous issues: a limited range of 40 miles,they take several hours to chargethey only have two seats.
The grant requires, cars must be capable of a minimum top speed of 60mph, a range of at least 70 miles, as well as meeting safety standards. Manufacturers will also be expected to offer a three-year warranty for the electric car batteries.
The 20% incentive for the electric vehicles should procure Rs4000 on the factory price for low speed electric two wheelers, Rs5000 for high speed electric two wheelers, Rs6000 for 7 seat three wheelers and 1 lakh for electric cars.
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act provided $2.4 billion in loans to build three electric-car factories since 2009, and allocated $2 billion in grants to make batteries, motors and other components in 30 factories. The stimulus package also included $400 million to install charging stations and to carry out electric-car field trials, both to collect data about driving experiences and electric cars' impact on the electric grid
Sales in the electric car market have stagnated due to numerous issues: a limited range of 40 miles,they take several hours to chargethey only have two seats.
The grant requires, cars must be capable of a minimum top speed of 60mph, a range of at least 70 miles, as well as meeting safety standards. Manufacturers will also be expected to offer a three-year warranty for the electric car batteries.
The 20% incentive for the electric vehicles should procure Rs4000 on the factory price for low speed electric two wheelers, Rs5000 for high speed electric two wheelers, Rs6000 for 7 seat three wheelers and 1 lakh for electric cars.
