Riedel Research Group - " Analysis & Insights in Emerging Markets"

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    Riedel Research Group - " Analysis & Insights in Emerging Markets" - Presentation Transcript

    1. Riedel Research Group Institutional Research Global Expert Network Dedicated Research in Global Emerging Markets www.riedelresearch.com www.riedelglobalexperts.com
    2. Ins$tu$onal Research Global Expert Network Riedel Research Group Riedel Global Experts • Company specific coverage of • 1300+ subject matter experts in 300+ Emerging Market stocks over 52 Emerging & Frontier • On-the-ground insights in Markets Emerging Markets • Off-the-Street calls generate information not typically • Custom work – Channel Checks, disseminated Site Visits, Plant Tours, Surveys, Background Checks… • Provide clients uncommon • 28 analysts in 15 countries - insights in Emerging Markets Asia, Latin America and Emerging Europe • Enhance investment decisions • Bottoms-up, company-specific through phone consultations insights • Identify & vet the the most appropriate expert Global Expert Network www.riedelresearch.com www.riedelglobalexperts.com
    3. Riedel Research Group Interac$ve Client Service Tools and Resources to Help you Make the Best Investment Decisions • Discussion of Ideas and Themes • What we are Hearing • Weekly On-the-Ground and Macro Overview • Any project, any time, any market • Comparisons of opportunities across emerging markets • Monthly High-dividend Yield Project • Giving fund managers a competitive advantage • No conflict of interest – no banking, no brokerage, no corporate advisory • Dynamic Excel Models • As-needed Updates and Insights Global Expert Network • Conference Calls, discussions and transcripts www.riedelresearch.com www.riedelglobalexperts.com
    4. Riedel Research Group RRG Recommenda$ons Track Record • Since 2006 Riedel Research Buy and Sell Recommendations have outperformed local benchmarks in most markets. Performance Relative to Local Index (bps) Red numbers Reflect Underperformance BUYs SELLs Turkey 105 n/a Thailand 527 1,531 Poland 224 n/a Other Countries (137) 3,850 Mexico 1,632 4,652 India (187) (141) Hungry 807 n/a China 103 2,179 Brazil 2,439 680 Argentina 1,107 502 Global Expert Network www.riedelresearch.com www.riedelglobalexperts.com
    5. Recent Reports Riedel Research Group • CCCC - CHINA INFRASTRUCTURE - Leader Sees Continued Growth and Widening Margins - 50% Valuation Discount to Peers - BUY • GLOBAL GOLD MINING – AngloGold, Harmony, Goldfields, Buenaventura, Zhaojin and Zijin Mining. • Riedel Research Review - Trends, Insights and Opportunities in the Global Emerging Markets – Focus on Gold Producers, Brazilian Education and SELL Ratings for CHU and VISN. • MARUTI SUZUKI - Margin and Competitive Pressures - SELL • AJISEN - Chinese Restaurant Stock Sees Slowing Growth and Declining Margins - Downgrade to HOLD • VISN - Chinese Ad Co Sees Dramatic Change in Metrics - MGMT Will Not Explain - SELL • CHINA POSTS 6.1% YOY GDP - Growth for 1Q09 - Industry-Specific Additions to Stimulus Likely - BUY Autos, Real Estate and Healthcare • AMERICA MOVIL (AMX) – Consistent Subscriber and Revenue Growth Even in a Context of Economic Slowdown - BUY • INDIAN AUTO MONTHLY - Review of TATA NANO - Showroom Visit Highlights Interest - BUY Sector Long-Term • RIEDEL MONTHLY MACRO MONITOR - Pockets of Opportunity in Global Emerging Markets • MILLICOM  - Diversified EM Wireless Co Provides Solid Growth - 40%+ Upside       • TENARIS - Global Tube Supplier is Well Positioned for Challenging Times and Rebound - 40%+ Upside - BUY • CHU - China Telco Shares Down 40% Since Our Sell Rating - Fully Valued - Upgrade to HOLD Global Expert Network www.riedelresearch.com www.riedelglobalexperts.com
    6. Advantages  Riedel Global Experts • Solely dedicated to Emerging & Frontier Markets • “On-the-ground” objective insights into sectors and markets • Division of Riedel Research Group; 28+ analysts in 15 countries covering 300+ Emerging & Frontier Market companies. • Less dependency on consultants, analysts and C-Level opinions • Live language interpretation expands the universe of accessible experts • Written transcripts of all calls to reinforce the information • Access to complete library of sanitized transcripts • Opportunity for specialized research given the cutbacks in research departments and increased consolidation, particularly related to Emerging & Frontier Markets Global Expert Network www.riedelresearch.com www.riedelglobalexperts.com
    7. Riedel Global Experts Benefits • Actionable advice regarding Emerging Market industries, sectors, and/or specific companies • Timely, unfiltered information that enhances investment decisions • Greater portfolio due diligence & risk analysis through primary research • Objective, underrepresented & local knowledge in covered markets • Emerging market expertise assures appropriate expert selection • Custom call process saves time of busy managers from searching a database of experts • Avoidance of the rolodex model & readymade solutions Global Expert Network www.riedelresearch.com www.riedelglobalexperts.com
    8. Riedel Global Experts Call Process • Initial Assessment • Riedel Global Experts works with our client to formulate questions • Ideal profiles of experts are gathered based specifically on the client’s request • Expert Search and Vetting • Riedel Global Experts searches its proprietary database of experts • Our matching process includes searching our Global Expert Network, working with our global research partners and Riedel Research Group’s 28+ analysts • Quick Turnaround - A list of expert targets within 2-5 business days • Consultations • We coordinate and provide a call facility for confidential private phone consultations lasting up to one hour • Live interpretation is available for non-English speakers; this expands the universe of experts particularly in Russia, China & Brazil Global Expert Network www.riedelresearch.com www.riedelglobalexperts.com
    9. ASIA CHINA HOGS – Leading Pork Processor in China Benefits from Rising Price and Changing Lifestyles – BUY Mkt Cap US$ 350mn; Upside 75%; Avg. Daily Value US$3.6mn Ticker: HOGS Zhongpin is a major processor of pork Target: US$ 21 products in China with a network of Price (09/09/2009): US$ 12.15 owned stores and counters nationwide. Pork prices have been rising recently in China - up 20% since June. We expect 29% revenue growth for 2009 and 38% for 2010. Risks - Cash balance has dwindled because of growth. LT Debt/Cap: 19% Trades at P/E of 6x and 7x FV/EBITDA ‘10E. Peer valuations indicate a target of US $21.
    10. ASIA CHINA China Telecom (CHA) – Cheapest of the Chinese Telcos - Dominant Broadband Co. - Margin and Cashflow Upside in 2010 – BUY Mkt Cap US$40bn; Upside 20% Reduction in mobile subsidies and mobile advertising budget in 2010. Ticker: CHA Target: US$58 We expect Operating Margin will Price (09/0/2009): $47 improve to 17% in 2010 from 14% in 2009. G o o d c o n t ro l o f C A P E X b o o s t s cashflow. 2010 revenue growth of 5% with strong contribution from internet and mobile. DSL is only option for high-speed Internet connection in China - strong growth. Strong management. Currently trades at 5x FV/EBITDA and 11x P/E on ‘10E.
    11. LATIN AMERICA BRAZIL BRMALLS – Largest Mall Owner and Operator in Brazil - Greatly Undervalued at Current Prices – BUY Mkt Cap US$1.9bn; Upside 46% Brazil’s retail market is 5th largest in the Ticker: BRML3.SA world (190 mn people). Target: R$28 Price (09/09/2009): $19.40 Recent government stimulus has boosted white goods sales. Going into an election year liquidity is likely to be high nationwide. Retail Sales 5-yr CAGR +9% while shpping mall sales +12% and BRMALLS revenues +50%. Management is well-connected and respected. Diversified exposure to various regions and income levels. Currently trades at 14x FV/EBITDA and 21x P/E on ‘10E.
    12. EMERGING EUROPE POLAND Jeronimo Martins (JMT.LS) – Portuguese Retailer With Exposure to Poland - Strong News Flow and Positive Outlook – BUY Mkt Cap US$3.8bn; Upside 17% Ticker: JMT.LS Jeronimo Martins is one of the largest food Target: 7.07 EUR distribution companies in Poland and Price (09/09/2009): 6.05 EUR Portugal. Organic growth of the Company is predominantly directed to the Polish discount stores, which make up 51% both of Sales and EBITDA. The Company posted healthy 1H results, with net sales growing as much as 6.6% and EPS improving by 12.5%. Excluding the FX impact, their net sales soared by 21.6% and net profit increased by 23.3% In 2008 JM acquired the Plus discount stores in Portugal (75 locations) and Poland (205 locations). We emphasize the high growth potential of the Polish discount market, which may post a 13.7% CAGR until 2015, according to our estimates.
    13. ASIA INDONESIA Indofood (INDF.JK) – Major Food Co Provides Diversified Exposure to Indo Consumer - Debt Reduction and Diversification to Boost Margins - BUY Mkt Cap US$2.2bn; Upside 25% Diverse product portfolio: noodles, Ticker: INDF.JK flour, palm oil, milk. Target: INDR 3,250 Price (09/09/2009): 2,600 Aggressive expansion in recent years has stretched balance sheet and pressured margins. Growing exposure to high-margin dairy, sugar and palm oil will boost margins going forward. Avg P/E of peers is 27x while INDF trades at 14x 2010. Risks include impact of inflation on consumer spending and FOREX exposure. At target of INDR 3,250 shares would trade at 19x P/E.
    14. China - -University Student SurveySURVEY Financial Services CHINA UNIVERSITY STUDENT Focus on Which of the following is your preferred banking partner? Survey of students at 8 universities. Focus on attitudes towards financial services and usage of various services. 93% stated Domestic Govn’t Banks are their preferred banking partner - just 5% preferred Domestic Private and 2% preferred Foreign. Which of the following financial services do you or your family own/use? China Merchants Bank and ICBC are the preferred domestic private and government banks respectively. LIfe and health insurance are popular with Reliability and Brand indicated as the most important deciding factor - State-run entities preferred. Watch credit card services and mutual funds - Expect these services to grow quickly. Preferred Plays - ICBC, China Construction Bank and China Merchants Bank and China Life.
    15. ASIA CHINA Chinese Infrastructure Contractors Export Expertise and Low Costs 51 of 225 largest contractors globally are Chinese companies. Chinese banks provide long-term, low-cost loans for projects abroad. Construction services major contributor to Services Revenue from Overseas which was up 52% YoY in 1H09. Chinese construction companies signed contracts with overseas projects worth $65 bn in the first half of ’09. China Railway Construction (1186.HK) reported new overseas contracts up 98 percent in the first half, representing one fifth of the total new contracts signed. Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka – Under East-West Highway in LPG Dock Breakwater Project in Mexico Construction Algeria – $7 Bn Project, Under Construction Other Projects that Chinese Construction Companies are participating in: China Railway signed a $1.78 billion contract to build the first phase of a special railway for Muslim pilgrims in Saudi Arabia. Hambantota Port is being constructed with CCCC won the project as part of a Chinese China’s Shanghai Urban Construction group has Chinese aid consortium which included CRCC been contracted to build four 40,000-capacity stadiums in Benguela, Lubango, Cabinda and Luanda, Angola at a cost of US$600 million
    16. ASIA CHINA CCCC (1800.hk) - Chinese Construction Company Expanding Beyond Ports into Roads, Railroads and International - BUY Mkt Cap US$ 40bn; Upside 34%; Avg. Daily Value US$32mn Ticker: 1800.hk Recent results showed total new orders Target: HKD$12.5 +21% including 15% growth in in overseas Price (09/09/2009): $9.3 new orders to US$4.5bn, mainly construction-related projects. Exposure to port cranes has hurt recently with global downturn in shipping. Currently trades at P/E of 12x ‘10E and P/ Book ratio of 2.2x. Has underperformed because of port/ shipping exposure but this concern is overdone. Heavy machinery division diversification into oil exploration equipment & railway business growth will boost margins. Trades well below peer railway construction co.s despite higher margins and ROEs.
    17. Riedel Global Experts Riedel Research Group Service Packages Riedel Global Experts Riedel Research Group Full Service • Single Region: $10,000 a qtr • Annual - up to 52 Calls - $75,000 • Bi-annual - up to 26 Calls - $40,000 • All Regions: $15,000 per qtr • Quarterly - up to 13 Calls - $25,000 • Full access to analysts • Consistent research flow • Live Language Interpretation • Custom research as needed • Audio File (no additional charge) • Transcripts Upon Request • Weekly Best Ideas and update • Expert Panels calls. • Expert Surveys • RGE Can Even Conduct Calls on Your Behalf and Provide Written Transcripts Global Expert Network www.riedelresearch.com www.riedelglobalexperts.com
    18. Notices The research set forth herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Any statements expressed herein at this date are subject to change without notice. The research presented does not take into account the investment objectives, financial needs, or particular needs of any particular person. No representation is being made that any company will or is likely to perform in a particular fashion, and nothing contained herein should be construed as an endorsement or an offer to purchase or sell securities. Persons assessing this information should obtain advice based on their own individual circumstances before making an investment decision. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this research material. This information is presented for your private information only and may not be disclosed to any other persons, except as required by law. The information presented herein should not be construed as any form of offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities, nor should the information presented herein be construed as investment advice. It should be noted that investing in securities (including ADRs) of non-U.S. governments and companies which are generally denominated in non- U.S. currencies involves certain considerations comprising both risks and opportunities not typically associated with investing in securities of the United States government or United States companies. These considerations include, without limitation: changes in exchange rates and exchange control regulations; political, economic and social instability; expropriation; imposition of foreign taxes; less liquid markets and less available information than is generally the case in the United States; higher transaction costs; foreign government restrictions; less government supervision of exchanges, brokers and issuers; greater risks associated with counterparties and settlement; difficulty in enforcing contractual obligations; lack of uniform accounting and auditing standards; and greater price volatility. 21975.0001 #419592 Riedel Research Group President & CEO - David Riedel Riedel Research Headquarters driedel@riedelresearch.com +1 917.402.7500 245 Park Ave. 24th Floor Riedel Global Experts NY, NY 10167 Global Director - James Huddleston +1 212.805.8123 james@riedelglobalexpert.com +1 917.587.7717 Global Expert Network www.riedelresearch.com www.riedelglobalexperts.com

    + James.HuddlestonJames.Huddleston, 11 months ago

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