Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Opening summit for public
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Opening summit for public

29,437

Published on

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
29,437
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
5
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
8
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide
  • Marilyn Monroe is found dead on August 5th after apparently overdosing on sleeping pills The first Kmart department store opens in Garden City, MichiganJohn H. Glenn, Jr., becomes first American to orbit the earth during Friendship 7 orbit. Jamaica gains indepenedence
  • Preserving Paradise: The most recent South Florida report that Jim Murley produced at FAU with useful economic/demographic material
  • Preserving Paradise: The most recent South Florida report that Jim Murley produced at FAU with useful economic/demographic material
  • Preserving Paradise: The most recent South Florida report that Jim Murley produced at FAU with useful economic/demographic material
  • Preserving Paradise: The most recent South Florida report that Jim Murley produced at FAU with useful economic/demographic material
  • Preserving Paradise: The most recent South Florida report that Jim Murley produced at FAU with useful economic/demographic material
  • Transcript

    • 1. Opening Summit Better Region Better Life seven50.org@seven50plan #seven50
    • 2. Opening Summit Agenda Better Region Better Life 9:00 Registration Opens10:00 Welcome Addresses10:15 Victor Dover: “50 Year Plan: The Impact Starts Now”10:30 Allison DeFoor: “Nine Generations in Florida (and Counting)”10:45 Quick Poll: Participants11:00 Bob Burchell: “State of the Region and Future Trends”
    • 3. Opening Summit Agenda Better Region Better Life11:20 Bill Spikowski: “The Numbers, and Why They Matter in Regional Planning”11:35 Neal Peirce: “Regions Will Define the Future”12:45 Shaping the Plan: Working Lunch, Meet with Your Group 2:15 Quick Poll: Ideas 2:30 Work Group Highlights 2:50 Next Steps
    • 4. Better Region Better Life WELCOMEJoe Gillie, Old School Square
    • 5. Better Region Better Life WELCOMEMayor Ferreri, Greenacres
    • 6. Thank you Better Region Better Life Exec CommitteeMr. Doug Bournique Ms. Gepsie MetellusMr. Doug Bartel The Honorable Tod MoweryThe Honorable Heather Carruthers** Mr. Jack OsterholtMr. Art Cobb Ms. Susan E. O’RourkeMs. Carla Coleman Mr. Gus PegoMs. Sara E. Fain Mr. William PerryThe Honorable Samuel Ferreri The Honorable Raquel RegaladoThe Honorable Ed Fielding Ms. Kelly SmallridgeMr. Kevin J. Foley Mr. Michael SpringDr. Dennis P. Gallon Mr. Edwin SwiftThe Honorable Suzanne Gunzburger Mr. Norman TaylorThe Honorable Kathryn Hensley Mr. Ramon Trias, AICPThe Honorable Peter O’Bryan Mr. James WolfeThe Honorable Karen Marcus Mr. Barrington WrightDr. Edwin Massey
    • 7. Thank you Better Region Better Life Chip LaMarca Broward County Commissioner Tom Powers City of Coral Springs Vice Mayor Beam Furr City of Hollywood Commissioner Patricia Asseff City of Hollywood Commissioner Patricia Williams City of Lauderdale Lakes Commissioner Edwina Coleman City of Lauderdale Lakes Vice MayorBenjamin Williams City of Lauderdale Lakes Commissioner Gloria Lewis City of Lauderdale Lakes Commissioner Wayne Messam City of Miramar Commissioner Anne Sallee City of Oakland Park Mayor Shelby Lowe City of Riviera Beach City Councilman Eula Clarke City of Stuart Commissioner Sean McCrackine Comm. Jean Monestime, Miami-Dade, Chief Legislative Aide Dan Liftman Congressman Alcee Hastings, Staff Assistant Miguel Otero Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart, District Director Wendi Lipsich Office of Congressman Ted Deutch Victoria Nowlan Fl House of Representatives, Chief Legislative Assistant Doug Smith Martin County Commissioner Jean Monestime Miami Dade County County Commissioner Abby Ross Staff to Rep Berman Victoria Winslett Staff to Rep Berman Lori Berman State Representative Sandy Berman SFRPC Member
    • 8. Better Region Better Life WELCOMEMarcela Camblor, AICP, Project Director
    • 9. Dover, Kohl & Partners Citizen-Based Regional Planning & Visioning doverkohl.com @DoverKohl Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company Planning, Policy, Modeling Tools dpz.com Emerge Consulting Public OutreachRobert Burchell, PhD, Rutgers University Economic Analysis http://policy.rutgers.edu/cupr Spikowski Planning Associates Research & Model Ordinances spikowski.com
    • 10. Criterion Planners Scenario Modeling and Implementation crit.com HDR Transportation & Infrastructure hdrinc.comHall Planning & Engineering Multimodal Transportation hpe-inc.com Strategic Economics TOD Strategies strategiceconomics.com The Brookings Institution Economic Advisory Panel brookings.edu
    • 11. Cardno ENTRIXEnviro Economics, Ecology, Sustainability & Climate Change entrix.com Cardno TBE Brownfield Redevelopment tbegroup.com ROAR Media Communications roarmedia.com Gorman & Associates Housing Strategy gormanusa.com Municipal Code Corporation Code Integration municode.comPaul Vrooman, University of Miami Public Education
    • 12. Dover-Kohl • Windsor, Indian River County • Towns, Villages, and Countryside Land Development Regulations, St. Lucie County& DPZ • Fort Pierce Waterfront & Corridor Plan • Downtown Stuart • South Martin County Regional Plan • Waterfront Quarter, Jupiter • Abacoa, Jupiter30+ years local experience • Lake Okeechobee Regional Plan50+ SE Florida projects • Seven Cities - The U.S. 1 Corridor, Palm Beach County • Water Preserve Areas, TCRPC • Downtown Lake Worth Plan, TCRPC • Fox Property Study, TCRPC • Callery Judge Grove, Loxahatchee • Wellington, Palm Beach County • PBC Agricultural Reserve • West Palm Beach Downtown Plan • Royal Palm Beach Corridor Plan • North Federal Corridor, Delray Beach • Charleston Place, Boca Raton • Davie Downtown Plan • Mirabella, Miramar • Western C-9 Basin, Miami-Dade & Broward Counties • Lake Belt Plan, Miami-Dade County • Miami Lakes Town Center • North Miami Beach Bicycle Masterplan • Aqua, Miami Beach • Miami Springs Downtown Plan • Downtown Doral • Miami 21 • UM Miller School of Medicine, Miami • Miami-Dade County TND Ordinance • Miami-Dade County Agricultural & Rural Area Study • South Miami Hometown Plan • Downtown Kendall • Downtown Homestead Action Plan • Bluewater Carpet Cottages, Tavernier
    • 13. SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening Summit50 Year Plan: TheImpact StartsNowVictor Dover FAICP
    • 14. 2062
    • 15. 2012
    • 16. 1962
    • 17. it’s not very long?
    • 18. 1962 Palm BeachKey West Fort Lauderdale
    • 19. 1962
    • 20. Cuban Missile CrisisHurricane Dona
    • 21. Chevrolet – Coral GablesNational Airlines – Miami
    • 22. 1962
    • 23. The Jackie Gleason Show
    • 24. 1962
    • 25. 1962 Streets Neighborhoods
    • 26. “Here is the giant, plastic,metal, and unbreakableglass city of the 21stcentury. A city of science,of atomic power, of spacetravel, and of high culture.” Frank R. Paul – Amazing Stories, 1939
    • 27. Disney Magic Highway USASeattle World’s Fair
    • 28. it’s plenty of time?
    • 29. Sebastian, Indian River County 1968
    • 30. Sebastian, Indian River County 2012
    • 31. Hillsboro BlvdDeerfield Beach, Broward County 1968
    • 32. Hillsboro Blvd I-95Deerfield Beach, Broward County 2012
    • 33. Kendall DriveMiami Dade County 1968
    • 34. Kendall DriveMiami Dade County 2012
    • 35. confidence.
    • 36. 1733
    • 37. Oglethorpe Plan for Savannah,Lines drawn on the ground last for generations, longer than buildings
    • 38. Savannah, GA
    • 39. 1791
    • 40. Plan for Washington, DC
    • 41. 1909
    • 42. “Make no little plans….1909 Plan of Chicago – Burnham & Bennett
    • 43. …They have no magic to stir mens blood and probably themselves will notbe realized. Make big plans; aim high in hope and work, remembering thata noble, logical diagram once recorded will never die, but long after we aregone will be a living thing, asserting itself with ever-growing insistency.Remember that our sons and grandsons are going to do things that wouldstagger us. Let your watchword be order and your beacon beauty. Thinkbig. Daniel Burnham (probably…)
    • 44. 1921
    • 45. 1928
    • 46. “All development is a public-private partnership” 1970s-80s
    • 47. 1962
    • 48. 2012
    • 49. new era
    • 50. How would you describe Southeast Florida today? Paradise (5 votes, 2%) A good place to live, getting better everyday (70 votes, 31%) A work in progress with a long way to go (119 votes, 53%) Needs work and not getting better (16 votes, 7%) Getting worse everyday (11 votes, 4%)Total Votes: 221 Seven50.org as of June 22, 2012
    • 51. CO2 and density CO2 (KG) -- mean daily per North Redmond Queen Anne 12.5 12 person 11.5 11 10.5 10 0-4 4-7 7 - 10 10 -15 15+ Net Residential Density (housing units per residential acre) Source: LUTAQH final report, King County ORTP, 2005
    • 52. CO2 and connectivity North Redmond Queen Anne CO2 (KG) -- mean daily per 13 12 person 11 10 9 8 0 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.2 0.2 - 0.3 0.3 - 0.4 0.4+ Intersections per acre Source: LUTAQH final report, King County ORTP, 2005
    • 53. CO2 and convenient retail North Redmond Queen Anne CO2 (KG) -- mean daily per 12.5 12 11.5 person 11 10.5 10 9.5 0 1-2 3-9 10 - 29 30 - 165 # of Neighborhood Retail Parcels Source: LUTAQH final report, King County ORTP, 2005 64
    • 54. national call to actionobesity trends among US adultsNo Data <10% 10%-14% 15-19% 20% 25%Source: Mokdad AHCDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance SystemSource: Marla Hollander
    • 55. the great convergenceZimmerman/Volk Associates
    • 56. the great convergence
    • 57. L.U.D.M. of the F.L.U.E. of the C.D.M.P. per F.S.L.G.C.P.A. of 1985
    • 58. In the future I would like Southeast Florida to be: More economically resilient (144 votes, 63%) More walkable (95 votes, 42%) More bikable (78 votes, 34%) Safer for children (49 votes, 21%) More environmentally sustainable (108 votes, 47%) More prepared for changes to climate (60 votes, 26%) More sociable/convivial (40 votes, 17%) More equitable, open to diverse communities (58 votes, 25%) More attractive aesthetically (55 votes, 24%) More unified as a region (112 votes, 49%)Total Voters: 226 Total Votes: 799 Seven50.org as of June 22, 2012
    • 59. In the future I would like Southeast Florida to be: More economically resilient (144 votes, 63%) More walkable (95 votes, 42%) More bikable (78 votes, 34%) Safer for children (49 votes, 21%) More environmentally sustainable (108 votes, 47%) More prepared for changes to climate (60 votes, 26%) More sociable/convivial (40 votes, 17%) More equitable, open to diverse communities (58 votes, 25%) More attractive aesthetically (55 votes, 24%) More unified as a region (112 votes, 49%)Total Voters: 226 Total Votes: 799 Seven50.org as of June 22, 2012
    • 60. 2014
    • 61. four summits
    • 62. models: trend, and…?
    • 63. data warehouse
    • 64. 6 workgroups
    • 65. engage online
    • 66. start theconversation
    • 67. SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening SummitNine Generations(and counting)Allison DeFoor
    • 68. SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening SummitState of the Region andFuture TrendsBob Burchell, Rutgers University
    • 69. The Demographic State of the Region and Future Trends:The Effects of Larger Geographies Seven 50 Opening Summit 11:00 a.m. to 11:20 a.m. Wednesday 27 June 2012 Robert W. Burchell, Ph.D. 88
    • 70. Demographic Trends in Countries Abroad
    • 71. Demographic Trends in Countries AbroadIn 2050, world population will reach 9.1 billion. (1) • India will be the most populous country in the world.Projections show that by 2020, of 100 people: • 56 will be from Asia (19 Chinese, 17 Indian*); • 16 from Africa (13 from Sub-Saharan Africa); • 13 from the Western Hemisphere (4 from U.S.); • 7 from Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union; • 5 from Western Europe; 3 from the Middle East. (2)World population growth is trending downward. (1) • Most growth will be in less-developed countries; developed countries’ growth will turn negative by 2030. (1) * 21 and 22, respectively, by 2050. 90
    • 72. Demographic Trends in Countries Abroad In 1950, the population of Europe and Russia constituted about 22% of world population; by 2050, these countries will constitute just 7.5%. (2) Russia’s population will contract over the next 50 years from 141 million today to 120 million– 2060 will be equivalent to 1960. This decline will result from both lower fertility rates and higher mortality rates. (11)Male unemployment is noticeable in high-income economies (>$12,200 income, per capita). (12)By 2050, within a population of over 1.3 billion, China will have over 300 million people over age 65, with limited social infrastructure to care for that population. (11, 2) 91
    • 73. Demographic Trends in Countries AbroadBy 2050, India will have 1.7 billion people. The majority is expected to be living in some of the most impoverished conditions in the world. (11)Many families in India (and to a greater extent, in Africa) do not participate in a cash economy. Commodities are grown and bartered; children’s work has value. (15)In Africa, nearly all of the growth increase is expected to be in the sub-Saharan region, where there is expected to be virtually no economic growth, and where AIDS will significantly impact life expectancy. (2)Thus, one should not assume that projected economic and demographic growth of China and India, or Russia and Japan, would relegate the U.S. to a second-class economic power by 2050. (11, 2) 92
    • 74. Demographic Trends in Countries AbroadJapan’s population is affected by declining fertility and increasing life spans. Fertility declines relate to women marrying later, or not at all. Life expectancy is 7 years longer for women and increasing. (13)World: Working age population (15-64) will decrease in Europe (Italy -39%; Germany -18%; Britain -12%; France -11%) Russia (-8%) and Japan (-3%); it will increase in the United States (+33%) and Canada (+17%). This is related to immigration policies. (4, 2)In Europe, more coordinated immigration policies, resembling those of the United States, could enable this geographic area to address its declining rate of natural increase. (29) 93
    • 75. Demographic Trends in the United States
    • 76. Demographic Trends in the United States National and Regional • The U.S. population will be about 380 million in 2040, and 420 million in 2060. (5,39) • From 2000 (281.4M) to 2010 (308.7M), U.S. population increased by 27.3 million: 52.4 % was in the South; 32.0% in the West; 10.8% in the Midwest; and 6.3% in the Northeast. (16) • Average growth over the period 2000-2010 in the U.S. was 9.7%. The South increased by 14.3%; the West by 13.8%; the Midwest by 3.3%; and the Northeast by 3.2%. (16) • These regional patterns are projected to continue for the next 50 years at a reduced rate of growth. (16) 95
    • 77. Demographic Trends in the United States Immigration • ½ of 2000-2010 growth in the U.S. is due to immigration; half is due to natural increase. (7) • Until the 1960s, immigration to the U.S. was primarily restricted to Europeans. (17, 23) • The 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act eliminated non-European quotas, and opened the doors to immigrants from all parts of the world. (17, 23) • By 2050, for the first time, Caucasian Americans will cease to be a majority (47%). (8) • Differential fertility rates: U.S. average, 2.0; Hispanics, 2.4; non-Hispanic blacks, 2.1; non- Hispanic whites and Asians, 1.8; will affect population growth in different geographic areas at any scale. (8) 96
    • 78. Demographic Trends in the United States Multigenerational Households (MGHs) • Definition I - Three generations, one roof—3.7% of all households in 2000; 4.4% of all households in 2010. (9) • Definition II – Definition I, plus households comprised of grandparents/grandchildren, and households comprised of parents/adult children: 16.2% of all households, 2008. (18) • Immigrants from Latin America and Asia are especially likely to have these sorts of living arrangements. (18) • In 2010, the share of the U.S. population that lived in MGHs (16.2%) was its highest since the 1960s (when it had reached 15%). This rate was up from a low of 12% in the 1980s. (18) • MGH rate will not fall until 2050 due to economic incapacities of GEN X (1965-81)/GEN Y (82-1999). (18) 97
    • 79. Demographic Trends in the United StatesMultigenerational Households (MGHs) • Both older women (> 65) and younger men (25-34) have a 20% chance of living in an MGH. (18) • The poverty rate (2009) for all people living in MGHs was 11.5%, versus a poverty rate of 14.6% for people in all other types of households. (10) • For unemployed people, those living in MGHs had a poverty rate of 17.5%, while those with other living arrangements had a poverty rate of 30.3%. (10) • Multi-generational households will diminish in 2050 as baby-boomers’ wealth transfers to their children. (18) • There is also a multigenerational workforce made up of pre-Boomers, Boomers, Gen X, and Gen Y. (19) 98
    • 80. Demographic Trends in the United StatesMarrying-Out (of Race/Ethnicity) • In 2010, marrying out of one’s ethnicity reached an all-time high in the U.S. Among newlyweds, 9% of whites, 17% of blacks, 26% of Hispanics, and 28% of Asians married members of other racial/ethnic groups. (20) • White-Asian couples (2010) had significantly higher average household incomes ($71,000) than all other pairings; their incomes were higher than those of white ($60,000) and Asian couples ($62,000). (20) • The rate of marrying-out varies by geography. It is highest in the West (22%), followed by the South and Northeast (13%) and the Midwest (11%) (2010). (20) 99
    • 81. Demographic Trends in the United States The Dominance of the Elderly • In 1970, seniors comprised 10% of the U.S. population (20m); by 2010, they comprised 13% (40m); in 2050, they will comprise 21% (85m). (21) • Households without children (including seniors) were half of the population (52%) in 1960; two-thirds (68%) in 2005; and will be three-quarters (74%) by 2040. (22) • Households without children will represent 90% of the growth of households from 2005-2040. (22) • Every day in the decade of 2010-2020, 8,000 people will turn 65; from 2020-2030 that rate will be 8,250. (23) 100
    • 82. Demographic Trends in the United States Women’s Workforce Presence • The gender ratio of college admissions in the United States is 60% female and 40% male. (23) • In married-couple households, women now provide 47% of the overall household income. (23) • In 2008, 63.3% of women were breadwinners or co- breadwinners; in 1967 that figure was 27.7%. (23) • Today, men versus women are more adversely affected by unemployment: men bore 80% of the job losses during the recent economic downturn. So bad for men, it has been called the “man-cession”. (23) 101
    • 83. Implications of Demographic Trendsfor Southeast Florida
    • 84. Implications of Demographic Trendsfor Southeast Florida World Trends – Population Flows• Increase in growth in Russian and Japanese tourism/residency. Europe linked to euro (+now). (31,32)• Some growth in Chinese tourism/residency from later working-age/affluent population. Asian immigrants now outnumber those from South/Central America. (14, 29, 40)• Sustained growth in immigration from South/Central America, and the Caribbean. (29)• Counter-trend: Economic growth in Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico could draw workers from across Latin America, diverting them from reaching the U.S. Opening up of Cuba could also produce a counter-trend from the U.S. (29) 103
    • 85. Implications of Demographic Trendsfor Southeast Florida U.S. Trends – Population Flows• Florida was one of the five fastest/largest growing states for most of 70 years. 2040-26m; 2060-31m. (6)• Population growth in Florida slowed or was negative during recession; 2011 Census releases show return to growth with SE leading (38)• The Sunbelt (inc. South) will continue to garner the largest component of growth through 2060 (25), and Florida will be one of 9-11 U.S. super-regions. (24)• The South will get increased Hispanic immigration through 2060. Aging Hispanic immigrants will have different social- service needs than aging Northern migrants. (16) 104
    • 86. Implications of Demographic Trendsfor Southeast Florida U.S. Trends – Marrying-out-Increasing Average Age• Marrying-out trends will affect Southeast Florida—41% of intermarriages are white/Hispanic couples. (23)• Florida (5th nationally) and Southeast Florida have relatively high percentages of elderly, and both will have higher percentages of seniors in 2030. (27)• Southeast Florida’s population had been getting younger, in contrast to its history as an aging region; this trend will be reversed by retirement of Baby Boomers. (28)• Overall in SE Fla., elderly 23.3% of population in 2030 (16.6% 2010); 28.4% Treasure Coast; 20.7% South Fla. (29) 105
    • 87. Implications of Demographic Trendsfor Southeast Florida U.S. Trends – Gender Changes• The college gender ratio will hit Southeast Florida as more Hispanic families enter the mainstream. (34)• Women will reverse representation trends on private/ public boards as their education/wealth increase. (37)• Woman’s ascendance in Florida, and within Southeast Florida, could likely exceed national trends. (35)• Women in Southeast Florida will continue with their own blue collar employment (health, service), but will also move into male white collar employment, as well as its hierarchy. (36) 106
    • 88. Implications of Demographic Trendsfor Southeast Florida Southeast Florida Trends – South/North Immigration• Miami-Dade, and less-so Broward, will continue to be numerically dominated by south/north immigration.(30)• Immigration will be largely from South/Central America and the Caribbean.• Palm Beach, Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River will have larger percent increases in S/N immigration. (30)• Increase of foreign born in all S. E. Fla. counties.• Southeast Florida, older; foreign-born, older. (30)• The tug-of-war between immigration and migration will be won by immigration in terms of numbers. Migration plus general aging will continue to increase overall age. (30) 107
    • 89. Implications of Demographic Trendsfor Southeast Florida Southeast Florida Trends – North/South Migration• Florida – 19M population 2011; SE Florida, 6.2M (2011) (29)• Continued loss of northern migration to other states, Middle, Northwest, and Northeast Florida. (29)• North to south migration will be concentrated more in Indian River, Martin, and Palm Beach counties; less in St. Lucie, Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe counties. (29)• Tourism, then northern migration to Southeast Florida, will pick-up an Eastern European-former Soviet Union component who are relatively new U.S. workers/citizens. (31) 108
    • 90. Implications of Demographic Trendsfor Southeast Florida Southeast Florida Trends – Natural Increase/Job Base• Natural increase in the non-Caucasian Hispanic and black populations, especially in Miami-Dade, Broward, St. Lucie counties. (23) Per capita income may be lower in Southeast Florida but higher than the U.S. and Florida. (29)• Southeast Florida may grow slower than Florida as a whole but faster than the U.S./most southern states. (29)• Middle Florida will increase in job base and pull economic growth from the Southeast Florida region. (29)• Southeast Florida will experience growing trade with South/Central America and the Caribbean; unemployment initially high (<10%-2012) but region poised for recovery. (3, 29) 109
    • 91. Endnotes (1)1. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/09/picture.htm2. https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/Demo_Trends_For_Web.pdf3. www.thewealthreport.net/The-Wealth-Report-2012.pdf4. www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2006/FS_ageing.pdf5. http://www.macfound.org/media/article_pdfs/FULL_REPORT.PDF6. http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/content/florida-county-population-projections7. www.cis.org/2000-2010-record-setting-decade-of-immigration8. www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/05/17/explaining-why-minority-births-now-outnumber-white-births9. www.therepublic.com/view/story/a6eceed37547df963197eb9cf1016b/IN--Exchange-Multigenerational- Households10. www.pewsocialtrends.org/2011/10/03/fighting-poverty-in-a-bad-economy-americans-move-in-with-relatives11. http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/international_population/cb11-116.html12. www.tradingeconomics.com/high-income/long-term-unemployment-wb-data.html13. www.forbes.com/2010/06/14/japan-population-aging-business-oxford-analytica.html14. http://www.wttc.org/research/economic-impact-research/regional-reports/asia-pacific/15. http://planningcommission.nic.in/plans/planrel/12appdrft/approach_12plan.pdf16. www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-01.pdf17. www.thenagain.info/webchron/usa/immigrationact.html18. http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/03/18/the-return-of-the-multi-generational-family-household/19. http://assets.aarp.org/www.aarp.org_/cs/misc/leading_a_multigenerational_workforce.pdf20. http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1616/american-marriage-interracial-interethnic 110
    • 92. Endnotes (2)21. http://www.flickr.com/photos/usgao/5509657762/22. www.epa.gov/aging/resources/presentations/2008_1028_nelson_reconstruction.pdf23. www.kenan-flagler.unc.edu/~/media/files/kenaninstitute/UNC_KenanInstitute_2010Census24. www.floridafuturessurvey.com/2009/10/demographic-trends.html25. www.bebr.ufl.edu/news/sun-belts-comeback26. www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2011/12/22/the-sun-belts-comeback27. www.bebr.ufl.edu/news/census-shows-fewer-seniors-some-south-florida-cities28. www.heraldtribune.com/article/20110818/wire/110819592/-1/news?p=2&+c=pg29. http://www.slideshare.net/Jacqueshart/se-florida-demograghic-trends-dick-ogburn30. http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2011-03-21/news/fl-census-change-20110318_1_whites-communities-dick- ogburn31. http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/south-florida-travel/2012/05/29/russias-aeroflot-to-start-flights-to-miami-in- october/32. http://www.miami.us.emb-japan.go.jp/en/bilateral.html33. http://www.travelandleisure.com/slideshows/top-10-asia-spas34. http://www.alligator.org/news/campus/article_206135ea-3bb0-11df-9902-001cc4c002e0.html35. http://www.bpwfl.org/36. http://flwbc.org/37. http://www.theglasshammer.com/news/2009/02/19/breaking-the-glass-ceiling-in-florida/38. http://miami.cbslocal.com/2012/04/05/census-figures-show-people-once-again-moving-to-s-florida/39. http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/news/usa-sees-flattest-growth-population-1940s40. http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2010-03-05/business/fl-china-tourism-20100305_1_visit-florida-chinese-travel- overseas-trip 111
    • 93. SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening SummitThe Numbers, and WhyThey MatterBill Spikowski, FAICP
    • 94. Regional Transportation
    • 95. climate change
    • 96. “lidar” remote sensing
    • 97. Vehicle-Miles Traveled (VMT) drive everywhere?
    • 98. Indicators: Measurements thatprovide information about past andcurrent trends to assist communityleaders in making decisions that affectfuture outcomes.Benchmarks: Quantifiabletargets that crystalize communityaspirations. Indicators can be used tomeasure progress over time in achievingthese targets.
    • 99. Austin Region
    • 100. Maryland
    • 101. but what if: energy prices rise? federal government expenditures drop?
    • 102. Florida
    • 103. Florida
    • 104. but what if: energy prices rise dramatically? migration of people and capital shifts? sea-level rise affects coastal communities?
    • 105. SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening SummitRegions Will Define theFutureNeal Peirce, Citistates Group
    • 106. Opening Summit Better Region Better Life Shaping the Plan: Working Lunch,Meet With Your Group
    • 107. Education, Workforce & Econ DevelopmentGymnasiumDevelopment PatternsGymnasiumEnvironment, Natural Resources & AgricultureGymnasium (Upstairs)Climate ResiliencyClassroom 2Community Assets & CultureClassroom 6Inclusive Regional Leadership & EquityStudio 2
    • 108. SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening SummitLightning Round:Workgroup HighlightsClarence Anthony
    • 109. Better Region Better LifeNEXT STEPS
    • 110. Better Region Better LifeTHANK YOU

    ×