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A United Korea? Reassessing North Korea Risks

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  • 1. A United Korea? Reassessing North Korea Risks Goohoon Kwon, CFA Tel: 82-2-3788-1775 [email_address]
  • 2. Key topics
      • North Korea: Risks and opportunities
      • North Korea’s economy: At a crossroads
      • North Korea’s long-term growth potential
      • A united Korea: Projections and integration costs
      • Appendix
  • 3. North Korea risks Intraday KOSPI reactions on May 25,2009 to the 2ndnuclear test by North Korea terms
  • 4. North Korea Risks
  • 5. A United Korea could overtake France, Germany and possibly Japan in 30-40 years in terms of GDP Source: GS Global ECS Research. World in 2050 and a United Korea: GDP in USD terms (2007)
  • 6. A United Korea could overtake France, Germany and possibly Japan in 30-40 years in terms of GDP Source: GS Global ECS Research. World in 2050 and a United Korea: GDP in USD terms (2007) (excluding China, US, India and Brazil)
  • 7. The North Korean economy is at a crossroads Source: Bank of Korea, IMF, GS Global ECS Research. North Korea’s real GDP is still lower than its 1992 level Output correction and recovery in formerly planned economies (real GDP, 1992=100) N. Korea’s economy is stagnating recently
  • 8. The North Korean economy is at a crossroads Source: CEIC, IMF, Bank of Korea, GS Global ECS Research. Per capita income of North Korea in USD is similar to that of Vietnam and India Note: Caution is needed in its direct comparison with those of other countries as the estimates are based on South Korean price and cost structures.
  • 9. The planned economy system in N. Korea appears to be on the verge of collapse Source: Korea Development Institute, Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, GS Global ECS Research. Unofficial exchange rates are 20 times higher than the official rates
  • 10. North Korea’s closer economic ties with South Korea South Korea is North Korea’s largest export market Exports of North Korea in US$bn including exports to South Kora Source: Korea Development Institute, Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, GS Global ECS Research.
  • 11. North Korea has abundant and competitive labour force Source: CEIC, National Statistical Office, GS Global ECS Research. Rural population in North Korea is at the level of South Korea in the late 1970s
  • 12. The North Korea’s industrial structure is also similar to that of South Korea in the late 1970s Source: Bank of Korea, GS Global ECS Research. Industrial structure of N. Korea vs. S. Korea
  • 13. Strong synergies between South and North Korea - Mineral resources Note: Reserves for the South Korea are the sum of confirmed and estimated reserves as of 2007. North Korean data are potential reserves, based on the latest North Korea data North Korea is rich (and South Korea is poor) in mineral resources Source: Korea Resources Corporation, Korea Institute for National Unification, Hyundai Research Institute, IAEA, EIA, GS Global ECS Research.
  • 14. Strong synergies between South and North Korea: demographic North Korea has more favorable demographics than the South (2007) Population of a United Korea could near 80million at its peak in 2030 Source: UN, CIA, GS Global ECS Research. Source: UN, National Statistical Office, GS Global ECS Research.
  • 15. Strong synergies between South and North: productivity gains Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research. Output decline and recovery in transition economies
  • 16. Strong synergies between South and North Korea - productivity gains Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research. Growth Environment Scores for BRICs and N-11 (2008)* * The North Korea score is a tentative one, based on our estimates of the 13 GES indicators.
  • 17. Strong synergies between South and North Korea -currency appreciation Currencies in most transition economies strengthened more rapidly than output growth Real appreciation accounted for 80% of USD GDP growth in transition economies over 1993-2007 Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research. Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research.
  • 18. Strong synergies between South and North Korea - currency appreciation Source: IMF and SNU (2009), GS Global ECS Research. Price structures of North and South Korea differ widely
  • 19. A United Korea – growth potential Source: GS Global ECS Research. The GDP (in USD terms) of a United Korea could exceed that of France, Japan and Germany in 30-40 years
  • 20. A United Korea – the potential size of the economy Source: Bank of Korea, UN, GS Global ECS Research. Indicative long-term projections
  • 21. A United Korea – Growth potential of the mineral sector Source: Korea Resources Corporation, GS Global ECS Research. North Korea’s mineral wealth could provide sizeable income in the long run
  • 22. A United Korea – comparison with other economies Selected indicators of North and South Korea Economic growth of two integration economies Source: Bank of Korea (2009) Source: Bank of Korea, UN, OECD.
  • 23. Integration costs: vary a lot depending on the speed and policy assumptions Inter-Korea integration costs – survey of literature Source: Korea Tax Institute (2008), GS Global ECS Research.
  • 24. A United Korea – income convergence Illustrative scenario of a North-South income convergence (Number of years for North Korea’s per-capita income to reach half of the South Korea level) Source: Bank of Korea, GS Global ECS Research.
  • 25. Appendix: Korea at a glance Population Real GDP yoy growth rate Source: Bank of Korea Source: Bank of Korea
  • 26. Appendix: Korea at a glance Gross National Income per capita North Korea’s GDP yoy growth (% chg by industry) Source: Bank of Korea Source: Bank of Korea
  • 27. Appendix: Korea at a glance North Korea’s industrial structure South Korea’s industrial structure Source: Bank of Korea Source: Bank of Korea
  • 28. Appendix: The Gaesung Industrial Complex The GIC’s output is growing rapidly (in US$mn and in % of N. Korea exports) Investment in the GIC (Investment in KRW bn) Source: Ministry of Strategy and Finance, GS Global ECS Research.
  • 29.
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