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TUT 1

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  • 1. South African Higher Education student enrolment & retention M arié F owler Tshwane University of Technology Live your life. Create your destiny.
  • 2. Strategic Management Supportl
    • Total state institutional undergrad enrolment: approx. 717 793
    • Graduates: 109 373 (15.2%)
    • Only 15% of students ever graduate!*
    • Statistics show that only 22% of tertiary students graduate after 5 years.” Dep. Ed. Minister, Surty (27/02)
    • Problem : There are as many graduation and retention statistics as there are studies and/or reports of those studies
    Intake in HE in South Africa (2003)
  • 3. Retention problematic in South African HE
    • Enrolments seriously inflated by repeat students with little or no prospect of graduation
    • Financial aid problems add to dilemmas
    • Only 15% of students speak English 1 st language, often the language of instruction (many instructors lecture in a language not their own)
    • Good news: Student Affairs getting organized professionally nationally & are committed to progress.
  • 4. Strategic Management Support “
  • 5. Strategic Management Support HERD-SA Kellogg Grant and Project Assist decision makers/practitioners to begin measuring retention rates (SA def’s) & by developing a culturally appropriate methodology for reviewing & presenting meaningful data. Develop a profile of student characteristics from data collected/identified and determine what, if any, relationships the data may have to student retention and attrition.
  • 6. Strategic Management Support Direction of Kellogg Grant & Project Focus mainly on first year students; yet will make methodology available for use at all levels of tertiary education. Share findings with institutional and governmental agencies adhering to confidentiality guarantees.
  • 7. l Strategic Management Support HERD-SA Project Leaders Roger B. Ludeman (USA) HERD-SA Project Director Email: [email_address] Prof. Amanda Lourens, HERD-SA Project Assistant Director North-West University Email: [email_address] Rosemary Hayes (University of Oklahoma) Consortium for Student Retention Data Exchange Email: rhayes@ou.edu http://www.ou.edu/csrde/index.html
  • 8. Strategic Management Support HERDSA PROJECT Institutions taking part Basics and definitions Methodology Results
  • 9. Strategic Management Support Participating institutions
      • Tshwane University of Technology
      • Wits University
      • North West University
      • Central University of Technology
      • University of Johannesburg (Comprehensive)
      • University of Cape Town
  • 10.
        • Result of 2004 Merger of 3 Technikons*
        • Biggest residential university in SA
        • 52 000 students on 8 campuses covering 3 provinces (states)
    • 4.5% International students (2006)
    • 88% Black**, 12% white (2006)
    • *Technikons =
    • Universities of Technology
    • ** Black = black, coloured & asian
    Tshwane University of Technology
  • 11.
    • Founded in 1922
    • Total enrolment: 24 652 (2006)
    • Highly rated research capacity
    • Race %: 66% Black, 34% White
    • 7% international students
    • Gender breakdown: 50/50
    University of Witwatersrand
  • 12.
    • Result of a merger (black & white inst)
    • Approximately 38 596 students (2005)
    • 91% undergrad, 7% post grad.
    • 39% male, 61% female
    • 34% White, 66% Black
    North-West University
  • 13. Central University of Technology, Free State
    • Head count (2006) 10 447
    • Race %: 82 Black, 18 White
    • International students: 5%
  • 14. University of the Free State
    • Headcount: 24 521 (2006)
    • Race: 60% Black, 40% White
    • International
    • students 7%
  • 15. University of Johannesburg (A comprehensive university)
    • Headcount: 42 655 (2006)
    • 73% Black, 27% White
    • 3.7% international
    • students
  • 16. University of Cape Town
    • Headcount: 21 658
    • Gender: about 50/50
    • Race: White 45%, Black 28%
    • 14% Coloured, 8% Indian
    • International student % 19.6
  • 17. Strategic Management Support Basic underlying factors & problematic
    • Mergers affected almost all
    • Three types of university
    • Years of survey: 2000 – 2003
    • First time entering students as target group
    • Confidentiality
    • Data extraction: HEMIS & own systems
  • 18. Strategic Management Support Retention Definitions Baseline Enrolment : First time entering students enrolled for a 3-year diploma/degree in the year under consideration. Second year dropout rate : Students of the baseline enrolment cohort who did not register (enrol) for the 2 nd year of study nor cancelled their studies and did not graduate. Graduation rate : The cumulative number of students from the baseline cohort who received a qualification within or before the specified year.
  • 19.
    • First time entering undergraduate or prediplomate (HEMIS definition):  
    • The person (a) is effectively registered in the collection period for an undergraduate or prediplomate course and (b) in the past has not been effectively registered in any higher education course at the institution or any other higher education institution.
    Definitions (continued)
  • 20. Strategic Management Support Methodology * Cohort studies (Track progress over a number of years) * Profiles of ‘stayers’ and dropouts Use existing demographic/personal data obtained from admissions/ registration/financial aid forms. HEMIS data can also be used for this step. (Variables include e.g: pass rate, age, gender, race, citizenships, financial aid/ bursary status, previous year activity, grade 12 type & aggregate, course load)
  • 21. Strategic Management Support Variables used for phase 2 (Obtained from HEMIS)
    • Year of registration
    • Institution code (as in HEMIS)
    • Student number
    • First time entering status
    • FTE degree credits passed (enrolments/ year)
    • HEMIS qualification type
    • Birth date
    • Gender
    • Race
    • Citizenship (as reported in HEMIS)
    • CESM category
  • 22. Strategic Management Support Variables (continued)
    • Financial aid
    • Residence
    • Previous year activity (as per HEMIS)
    • Matric type
    • Grade 12 aggregate
    • Dropout status
    • Course load
    • Home postal code
    • Home language
    • Qualification code
  • 23. All Institutions – Phase I: Enrolment, Dropouts and Graduates of 2000–1 cohorts   32% 27% 13% 0% 0% % Cumulative Graduates   9,934 8,492 4,065 123 14 # Cumulative Graduates   5% 14% 13% 0% 0% % Graduates per year   1,442 4,427 3,942 109 14 # Graduates per year   62% 58% 45% 31% 0% % Cumulative Drop Outs   19,194 18,087 13,999 9,677 0 # Cumulative Drop Outs   4% 13% 14% 31% 0% % Drop Outs per year   1,107 4,088 4,322 9,677 0 # Drop Outs per year   11% 23% 51% 67% 100% % Enrolment   3,302 7,148 15,837 20,807 31,104 # Enrolment   31,104 31,104 31,104 31,104 31,104 2001 Baseline Enrolment 36% 34% 29% 13% 0% 0% % Cumulative Graduates 8,309 7,883 6,791 3,078 97 28 # Cumulative Graduates 2% 5% 16% 13% 0% 0% % Graduates per year 426 1,092 3,713 2,981 69 28 # Graduates per year 61% 60% 53% 43% 28% 0% % Cumulative Drop Outs 14,367 13,923 12,419 10,146 6,651 0 # Cumulative Drop Outs 2% 6% 10% 15% 28% 0% % Drop Outs per year 444 1,504 2,273 3,495 6,651 0 # Drop Outs per year 5% 11% 26% 52% 69% 100% % Enrolment 1,156 2,533 6,143 12,092 16,226 23,384 # Enrolment 23,384 23,384 23,384 23,384 23,384 23,384 2000 Baseline Enrolment 6th yr 5th yr 4th yr 3rd yr 2nd yr 1st yr Entering term
  • 24. All Institutions – Phase I: Enrolment, Dropouts and Graduates of 2002–3 cohorts   15% 1% 0% % Cumulative Graduates   5,280 180 34 # Cumulative Graduates   14% 0% 0% % Graduates per year   5,100 146 34 # Graduates per year   39% 31% 0% % Cumulative Drop Outs   13,856 11,286 0 # Cumulative Drop Outs   7% 31% 0% % Drop Outs per year   2,570 11,286 0 # Drop Outs per year   50% 60% 100% % Enrolment   18,164 21,741 35,985 # Enrolment   35,985 35,985 35,985 2003 Baseline Enrolment 29% 15% 0% 0% % Cumulative Graduates 9,247 4,703 93 13 # Cumulative Graduates 14% 14% 0% 0% % Graduates per year 4,544 4,610 80 13 # Graduates per year 54% 49% 29% 0% % Cumulative Drop Outs 17,424 15,865 9,175 0 # Cumulative Drop Outs 5% 21% 29% 0% % Drop Outs per year 1,559 6,690 9,175 0 # Drop Outs per year 27% 47% 70% 100% % Enrolment 8,600 15,018 22,651 32,148 # Enrolment 32,148 32,148 32,148 32,148 2002 Baseline Enrolment 4th yr 3rd yr 2nd yr 1st yr Entering term
  • 25. All Institutions – Phase I: Dropout & Graduation Rates
    • Cohorts used in calculations:
    • The overall 2nd year dropout rate: all cohorts
    • The overall 4th year graduation rate: only the 2000 - 2002 cohorts (when the data was extracted, the 2003 cohort had not yet had 4 full years to graduate)
    28%       % Cumulative Graduates 24,530       # Cumulative Graduates               30%   % Drop Outs per year     36,789   # Drop Outs per year           86,636   122,621   All Cohorts (2000 – 2003) Baseline Enrolment 4th yr 3rd yr 2nd yr 1st yr All Institutions
  • 26. Descriptive Statistics: Phase II data 99% are first time entering higher education First time entering higher education 46% English, 17% Afrikaans, 10% Sesotho, 10% Setswana Home language 13% received a NSFAS bursary NSFAS bursary 57% secondary school students, 27% other activity Previous year 45% Senior Certificate Endorsement/Exemption, 29% other Senior Certificate Matric type 23% live in residences Residence 99% contact Tuition type 52% female, 48% male Gender 63% African, 30% white, 4% Indian, 4% coloured Race 95% South African citizens Citizenship 40% general 1 st Bachelor degree, 35% National Diploma, 24% B Tech degree Qualification type
  • 27. Strategic Management Support Next plans of the project
    • Bring in other institutions to participate
    • Utilize pilot institutions as “consultants” to assist new institutions to adopt new data analysis profiles.
    • Share aggregate profiles as needed. Remember: data belongs to the institution.
    • Introduce additional ideas for further data analysis or research .
    • Develop CD-ROM with structures needed for new institutions to enter their data and produce their profiles of stayers and leavers
  • 28. Strategic Management Support HERD-SA Kellogg Grant and Project Assist decision makers/practitioners to begin measuring retention rates (SA def’s) & by developing a culturally appropriate methodology for reviewing & presenting meaningful data. Develop a profile of student characteristics from data collected/identified and determine what, if any, relationships the data may have to student retention and attrition.
  • 29. Strategic Management Support Future Needs and Ideas
    • Work to create ongoing retention research for all of South African tertiary education
    • Develop an online clearinghouse of SA student retention studies
    • Look at interventions designed to combat attrition
  • 30. Strategic Management Support Thank you M arié F owler [email_address]