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Strategic Foresight - A case study on the Deutsche Telekom ... Strategic Foresight - A case study on the Deutsche Telekom ... Presentation Transcript

  • Strategic Foresight in multinational enterprises. A case study on the Deutsche Telekom Laboratories. René Rohrbeck, Heinrich Arnold, Jörg Heuer Deutsche Telekom Laboratories ISPIM-Asia Conference, New Delhi, India 9th – 12th January 2007
  • Agenda. Introduction Definition and elements of Strategic Foresight Case Study on a project of Deutsche Telekom Laboratories Conclusion Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 1
  • Introduction. Motivation and research question. Increased competition Management needs to Increased technological complexity make decisions fast in Motivation Shorter innovation cycles order to stay ahead of Fast changing customer needs competitors Research focused on methods Need for research on how Little knowledge about organization and Research to link strategic foresight actors gap with strategic and Little research on usage of gained operative management insights How do companies organize their foresight activities? Research Are consumer, market and technology foresight activities coordinated? Questions Who is involved in foresight activities? How are the gained insights used in operative innovation management? Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 2
  • Definition and elements of Strategic Foresight. Scientific classification. Using data from the Using gathered Process and past to anticipate the information for Organization actors future decision making Company level Strategic Foresight Regional/ national and supranational Forecasting level Foresight Future Analysis Source: Own figure Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 3
  • Definition and elements of Strategic Foresight. The 4 elements of Strategic Foresight. Technology Intelligence Political Environment Foresight Identification, assessment and usage of Identification, assessment and usage of information on emerging technologies and information on legislation, the political technological discontinuities environment and on shifts in political will Strategic Foresight Assessment of competitors and identification Identification, assessment and anticipation of and assessment of products and service in consumer needs, lifestyle and socio-cultural development or available in lead markets trends Competitive Intelligence Consumer Foresight Source: Own figure Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 4
  • Definition and elements of Strategic Foresight. The 2 perspectives of Strategic Foresight are integrated by actors, methods, and systems. Strategic Foresight Market perspective Integrating elements Technology perspective Competitive Intelligence Actors Consumer Foresight Methods Technology Intelligence Political Environment Systems Foresight Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 5
  • Agenda. Introduction Definition and elements of Strategic Foresight Case Study on a project of Deutsche Telekom Laboratories Conclusion Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 6
  • Actors of Strategic Foresight. Actors Coordination of actors can lead to reduction of redundant activities and to synergies. Market Technology Cross-functional perspective perspective Strategic Innovation Technology and Strategic Product & Service Strategy Platform Strategy Exploration Customer Technology Exploration Exploration Strategic R&D Tactical projects Project Operational Product Manager Management Technology Expert Operational Source: Rohrbeck, Gemünden (2006) Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 7
  • Methods of Strategic Foresight. Methods Integrating methods play a key role in coordinating activities and realizing synergies. Market-oriented methods Integrating methods Technology-oriented methods Customer diaries Roadmapping Technological Ethnographic Study Scenario Technique Competitor Analysis Socio-cultural Currents Quality Function Technology Scouting Customer Scenarios Deployment Publication Analysis Focus Topics Internal Delphi Study Patent Analysis Qualitative Survey Conference Analysis Quantitative Survey S-Curve Analysis Competitor Analysis Delphi Studies Trend Report Learning Curve Lead-User Analysis Option Pricing Models Lead-Market Analysis Simulations Benchmarking Source: Rohrbeck, Gemünden (2006) Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 8
  • Sequence of activities. Systems Four steps lead from the Strategic Foresight impulse to the successful launch of a new project at T-Labs. Market Technology Cross-functional perspective perspective 4 Project Project Proposal: proposal „Toolkit for 3rd party communities“ 3 Consumer Assessment: Concept Technology Assessment: „Communication behavior development „Application enabling and in online and offline delivery environment“ communities“ 2 Joined Workshop: Idea „Facilitate communication communication in online and offline communities“ 1 Idea Consumer Exploration: Technology Exploration: generation „Subcultures create „Multi-Channel Operational trends“ communication” Source: Own figure based on barriers paradigm of Gemünden (2001) Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 9
  • Description of Scenarios (1/2). Virtual Communities easily communicate on the go. The French-German business connection on OpenBC is bringing together their members for a real life meeting in Cologne. About 200 of the 480 members signed up for the event. They are coming from such diverse places like Berlin, Munich, Hamburg and several cities in France. They arrive using different means of transportation and according to their own schedule and stay at different hotels according to preference. However, the organisers would like to offer them a shuttle from the airport and main station to the venue, assistance in finding taxis and restaurants as well as grouping up to save on trans- portation costs or discussing on hotels, the event, etc. Using various CoSIMS Services members can communicate in groups and synchronise their travel plans on the go by using the device most convenient in the situation, meet at the station and take a taxi or meet at a restaurant and join the event later. More: Massive Multiplayer Gamers, Carlovers, Parents, Health and Sports, Food and Drink, Alumni, … Attractive Value Added Services Attractive group-context-sensitive offers Supporting brand communities existing on the web with related telecommunications services Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 10
  • Description of Scenarios (2/2). Real-life groups plan and communicate during common activities. It‘s Friday night and Tom decided to go out. Using his CoSIMS enabled mobile he looked up the presence and mood status of his friends. Some are away travelling or not in the mood. Carl and Martin are available and up for a party. During the afternoon they have been discussing clubs and bars, the movie schedule and what to do that night using their CoSIMS Messengers on their laptops and mobiles. Others in their various groups have left ratings of various venues helping them decide. In the end they opted for the movies and a club later on. But they still lack proper company. Tom would like to invite Anne, a rather new acquaintance. Her presence status indicated “unavailable” because she is planning to see her friends Mary and Martha for a girls’ night. Tom sends an invitation directly to Anne’s group. The girls are quite surprised and immediately start to chat heavily about the offer. Of course, everyone wants to know where it came from and how to react. In the end they decide to go for dinner and cut their girls’ night shorter to meet the guys at the club. Hi all… come on More: Families, Sports Clubs, Co-Workers, Students, … over to the Club… Tonight: Coldplay Attractive Value Added Services 29 € Groups of Group tickets for movies or concerts 7 € Cocktail Coupon 5 only pay 4 Special offers for products and services 0 61 10123 45678 4 Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 11
  • Relevance for DTAG. Fueling communication by group experience. Existing and future communication services used…. • Basic Telecommunication Services • Telephony • Telephone-Conferences Basic • Data Services Telecommunication •Multimedia Services Services Multimedia • UMTS / NG Services • Multimedia Streaming • Push to Talk • Instant Messaging Infrastructure CoSIMS User and Content … to generate business volume … which finally enhance customer alone or with partners,… retention and satisfaction and as a Community Branding / • Paid Content result further boost the propensity to Resale • Transaction charges (also for internationals) communicate • Cross Selling •Membership / registration fees •Charges for 3rd-party-integration •Posting of questions and answers at the • Resale of products / services Community-board • Cross Promotion •Direct communication among members •Advertising (banner, context-based etc.) • Up- and download of Community- • (Co-) Sponsoring/(Co-) Branding specific data or content • Micro Payment • On Demand Content Quelle: trommsdorff+drüner • Membership fees or subscription-models Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 12
  • Conclusion. Receptive new product development (NPD) is essential to ensure return on investment on Strategic Foresight activities. Ensure that new product development is receptive enough to use impulses from Strategic Foresight For 3 ways to do Strategic Foresight practitioners …specialized units ...own capabilities on R&D and product manager level …external monitoring and scanning by consultants Elaborate consistent framework for research on Strategic Foresight Research on systems emerging in Web 2.0 environment Further Social tagging (Del.icio.us) research Agent based issue analysis Consumer foresight in virtual worlds (Second Life) Links: http://del.icio.us; www.secondlife.com Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 13
  • Thank you for your interest. René Rohrbeck Deutsche Telekom Laboratories Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin +49 30 8353 58536 (Tel) rene.rohrbeck@telekom.de Dr. Heinrich M. Arnold Deutsche Telekom Laboratories Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin +49 30 8353 58420 (Tel) heinrich.arnold@telekom.de Jörg Heuer Deutsche Telekom Laboratories Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin +49 30 8353 58422 (Tel) Joerg.heuer@telekom.de Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 14
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