U.S. unemployment rate data and trends: February 2014
 

U.S. unemployment rate data and trends: February 2014

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U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in February, representing below-average growth but exceeding some expectations. The unemployment rate increased 10 basis points to 6.7 percent, causing some to blame ...

U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in February, representing below-average growth but exceeding some expectations. The unemployment rate increased 10 basis points to 6.7 percent, causing some to blame this winter’s frigid weather on halted growth. Unemployment for high school and college graduates remains lower, and labor force participation among this key demographic is up, though still suppressed. Total unemployment remains above historic norms at 12.6 percent.

See details on the data, including demographic, geographic and industry breakdowns, in this report featuring research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and JLL.

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    U.S. unemployment rate data and trends: February 2014 U.S. unemployment rate data and trends: February 2014 Presentation Transcript

    • Professional and business services is the employment situation: September 2013 February big winner in a slow U.S. Release date: October 22, 2013 U.S. employment situation: February 2013 March 7, 2014
    • What were February’s bright spots and challenges? Overview Bright spots Challenges •T • The U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in February, representing below-average growth but exceeding some expectations. • The unemployment rate increased by 10 basis points to 6.7 percent. • Total non-farm employment is at 99.5 percent of its previous peak figure. • 92.4 percent of the 8.7 million jobs lost during the recession have been recovered. • PBS led both monthly and year-onyear gains, and was the big winner in an otherwise slow month. • Tech remains the dominant industry for job growth, with energy remaining volatile. • Unemployment for high school and college graduates is below the official rate of 6.7 percent. • Although wobbling, initial claims remain only slightly above 300,000, below previous years and below the 400,000 threshold for growth, but have yet to see consistent declines since. • PBS’ rebound boosted office-using industries’ share of monthly gains to 41.1 percent. • Consumer confidence, despite a small decline (-1.3 points), is still elevated. • Geographically, growth is being seen increasingly outside of Texas and tech hubs. • Total unemployment (including disaffected workers) remains above historic norms at 12.6 percent. • Labor force participation for high school and college graduates, although up, is still suppressed. • Information continues to bring down office-using growth, contracting by 16,000 jobs in February. • Private-sector employment growth has been subdued over the past three months. • Help wanted ads are on the up, but so is unemployment. • Temporary help services added 24,400 jobs, bringing its payroll total to an elevated 2.8 million. Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics OVERVIEW 2
    • Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-11 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 1-month net change 150,000 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 84,000 203,000 199,000 201,000 280,000 129,000 175,000 202,000 164,000 237,000 274,000 149,000 141,000 225,000 203,000 214,000 197,000 160,000 150,000 161,000 226,000 243,000 221,000 183,000 164,000 196,000 200,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 300,000 226,000 243,000 360,000 360,000 400,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 106,000 122,000 100,000 220,000 250,000 121,000 120,000 February posts a moderate increase from the previous month (+175,000 jobs), but again below average 350,000 50,000 0 OVERVIEW 3
    • Revisions bring three-month employment growth to 388,000 jobs; unemployment rises 10bp to 6.7 percent 600.0 Monthly employment change 12.0% Unemployment rate 400.0 10.0% 8.0% 0.0 -200.0 6.0% -400.0 4.0% -600.0 2.0% -800.0 -1,000.0 0.0% 2003 2004 2005 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 OVERVIEW 4 Unemployment rate (%) 1-month net change (thousands) 200.0
    • 76 months into the cycle, total employment is now less than 0.5 percent below prior peak levels Past recessions (40 years) 1973 1981 1990 2001 2007 102.0% Pre-recession employment level Recovered jobs (%) 100.0% 98.0% 96.0% 94.0% 92.0% 90.0% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics OVERVIEW 5
    • 92.4 percent of jobs have been recovered from the recession; now 666,000 jobs below pre-recession peak Jobs lost during recession… Jobs gained during recovery… Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics OVERVIEW 6
    • All office-using jobs have been recovered, but there is now an emphasis on management, tech and design Office-using jobs lost during recession… Office-using jobs gained during recovery… Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics OVERVIEW 7
    • All subsectors saw below-average growth, but PBS was by far the largest contributor to growth Professional and business services 79.0 Education and health services 33.0 Leisure and hospitality 25.0 PBS Temporary help services 24.4 Education and health Construction 15.0 Leisure and hospitality Wholesale trade 14.8 All other subsectors Health care and social assistance 14.7 Government 13.0 Financial activities 9.0 Manufacturing 6.0 Durable goods 6.0 Motor vehicles and parts 3.4 Other services Top three subsectors responsible for 78.3 percent of monthly growth. 3.0 Mining and logging 1.0 Nondurable goods 0.0 Transportation and warehousing -3.6 Retail trade -4.1 Information -16.0 -40 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics -20 0 20 40 60 1-month net change (thousands) 80 100 OVERVIEW 8
    • PBS was also dominant in year-on-year gains, but less so due to strong growth in leisure, education and health Professional and business services 668.0 Leisure and hospitality PBS Leisure and hospitality Education and health Retail trade Manufacturing Financial activities All other jobs 404.0 Education and health services 337.0 Retail trade 281.9 Health care and social assistance 275.2 Temporary help services 227.7 Construction 152.0 Wholesale trade 115.6 Transportation and warehousing 90.3 Manufacturing 61.0 Financial activities 61.0 Durable goods 57.0 Other services 33.0 Motor vehicles and parts 28.1 Nondurable goods 4.0 Mining and logging 2.3 Government -32.0 Information -42.0 -100 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 12-month net change (thousands) 700 800 Core subsectors added 84.0 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months. OVERVIEW 9
    • Cold weather might be the culprit in retail trade’s unusual February contraction January and February countered retail’s traditional winter growth 70.0 Electronics and sports stores contract the most Clothing stores 60.0 4.3 3.2 50.0 1-month net change (thousands) Motor vehicle dealers Building material stores 3.0 40.0 Furniture stores 1.3 Miscellaneous 0.9 30.0 Non-store retailers 10.0 -0.2 Gas stations 20.0 -0.6 Health stores 0.0 General merchandise -10.0 Sporting goods stores -2.0 -5.4 -8.6 Electronics stores -12.0 -20.0 -15.0 -30.0 2010 2011 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2012 2013 2014 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 1-month net change (thousands) SECTOR FOCUS 10
    • Rebounds in PBS growth boost service-providing employment in spite of an across-the-board slowdown Goods-producing Service-providing 600.0 1-month net change (thousands) 400.0 200.0 0.0 -200.0 -400.0 -600.0 -800.0 -1,000.0 2008 2009 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 BRIGHT SPOT 11
    • Both high school and college graduate unemployment are stable, within 20bp of January Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college 12 6.4% 10 8 6 4 2 3.4% 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 BRIGHT SPOT 12
    • Tech still leading, while energy, mining and utilities is more volatile High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm 7.0 5.0 12-month % change 3.0 1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -5.0 -7.0 -9.0 -11.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through January 2014. 2013 BRIGHT SPOT 13
    • Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing slowdown in recent months Year-on-year percent growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics BRIGHT SPOT 14
    • Initial unemployment insurance claims continue to remain in the low 300,000s Initial claims 4-week moving average 700,000 650,000 600,000 550,000 Claims 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor BRIGHT SPOT 15
    • PBS’ rebound and slowdown in other sectors boosts office-using industries’ contribution to monthly gains Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics BRIGHT SPOT 16
    • Although consumer confidence dipped by 1.3 points, it remains elevated compared to the rest of the recovery 100 12% Consumer confidence index Unemployment rate 90 10% 80 70 8% 60 50 6% 40 4% 30 20 2% 10 0 0% 2008 2009 2010 Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2011 2012 2013 2014 BRIGHT SPOT 17
    • Markets seeing some of the strongest growth are not necessarily in Texas or tech hubs Seattle 2.6% Silicon Valley 3.4% Charlotte 2.6% Phoenix 2.5% Atlanta 2.5% Austin 2.8% Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Houston 3.0% BRIGHT SPOT 18
    • Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest of the country Detroit 0.8% Cleveland -0.6% Milwaukee 0.6% New Jersey 0.3% St. Louis 0.6% Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics CHALLENGE 19
    • Total unemployment fell by only 10bp, but is approaching the 10-year average Total unemployment U-6 10-year average 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CHALLENGE 20
    • Labor force participation still suppressed, although rising 40bp for high school graduates 79 College graduates 63 High school grads no college High school graduates College graduates 78 62 77 61 76 60 75 74 59 73 58 Jan07 Jan08 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 CHALLENGE 21
    • Private sector job gains below 2013 levels, similar to 2012 during the national slowdown Private sector hiring up 4.4 million since February 2012 Change in '000s jobs 400 200 0 -200 Public sector shed 89,000 workers since February 2012 -400 -600 -800 -1,000 2008 2009 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CHALLENGE 22
    • Information continues to drag down office-using job growth (-16,000 jobs in February) Information Professional and business services Financial activities 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010. In February 2014, it represented all 89.8 percent of new office jobs. -200 -250 -300 2009 2010 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2011 2012 2013 2014 CHALLENGE 23
    • February saw a sharp increase in help wanted ads, but unemployment rate is not in alignment 6,000,000 12.0% Online help wanted ads Unemployment rate 4,000,000 8.0% 3,000,000 6.0% 2,000,000 4.0% 2.0% 0 0.0% 2008 2009 Source: JLL Research, Conference Board 2010 2011 2012 2013 Unemployment rate 10.0% 1,000,000 Online help wanted ads 5,000,000 2014 CHALLENGE 24
    • Temporary help services jumps by 24,400 jobs and surpasses 2.8 million jobs for the first time Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment 60.0 Monthly net change in jobs (ths) 3,000.0 2,800.0 40.0 2,600.0 Temporary employment (ths) 80.0 2,400.0 20.0 2,200.0 0.0 2,000.0 -20.0 1,800.0 -40.0 1,600.0 -60.0 1,400.0 -80.0 1,200.0 -100.0 1,000.0 2009 2010 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2011 2012 2013 2014 CHALLENGE 25
    • For more information, please contact: Ben Breslau Managing Director - Americas Research Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com John Sikaitis Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research John.Sikaitis@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Research Analyst Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com Or, find more employment, business and real estate research at jll.com. >>> Click here to check it out. ©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.