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U.S. employment rate data and trends May 2014

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The national economy has finally gained back all jobs lost during recession, 79 months after the recession began. Not only are we back to the pre-recession employment peak—we’re 98,000 jobs above it. …

The national economy has finally gained back all jobs lost during recession, 79 months after the recession began. Not only are we back to the pre-recession employment peak—we’re 98,000 jobs above it.

The 217,000 new jobs created in May represent the fourth consecutive month of more than 200,000 payroll additions, the first time that this has happened during the recovery of late. Unemployment held steady at 6.3 percent, as did the labor force participation rate at its low of 62.8 percent.

See details on the data, including demographic, geographic and industry breakdowns, in this report featuring research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and JLL.

Published in Economy & Finance , Technology
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  • 1. U.S. employment situation: September 2013 Release date: October 22, 2013 All jobs are now finally recovered from prior employment peak…79 months later U.S. employment situation: May 2014 June 6, 2014
  • 2. What were May’s bright spots and challenges? Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2 • Total non-farm employment increased by 217,000 jobs, the fourth consecutive month of 200,000+ additions. • Unemployment held steady at 6.3 percent. • The U.S. economy has finally regained all lost jobs and is currently 98,000 jobs above its previous peak. • Growth was highly concentrated in three major subsectors in May: education and health, PBS and leisure and hospitality. • On a year-on-year basis, PBS has been by far the leader among subsectors, with core segments contributing roughly four in five new jobs. • Although the public sector has shed jobs in comparison to two years ago, May marked the fourth consecutive month of net increases in government employment. • White-collar unemployment decreased to just 3.2 percent. • Tech and energy are both on the up, while total non-farm and office-using job growth remain steady. • Consumer confidence increased yet again to 83.0 points, the third month in a row above 80.0 points. • Although slowing somewhat, online help ads remain near peak at 4.9 million. • Some Sunbelt markets are increasing year-on-year gains in to more than 4.0 percent. • Midwestern and East Coast geographies continue to grapple with below-average employment growth, some still contracting. • The labor force participation rate is stuck at its record low of 62.8 percent. • Total unemployment dropped by only 10 basis points to 12.2 percent and is still nearly double the official rate of 6.3 percent. • A slowdown in office-using job growth means that only one in four new jobs in May was in PBS, financial activities or information. • Non-durable goods slowing down goods-producing employment. • High school graduate participation fell to 57.9 percent. Overview Bright spots Challenges OVERVIEW
  • 3. June marked the fourth consecutive month of 200,000+ monthly job additions; this had yet to occur during the recovery prior220,000 121,000 120,000 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 106,000 122,000 221,000 183,000 164,000 196,000 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 160,000 150,000 161,000 225,000 203,000 214,000 197,000 280,000 141,000 203,000 199,000 201,000 149,000 202,000 164,000 237,000 274,000 84,000 144,000 222,000 203,000 282,000 217,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Oct-10 Dec-11 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 1-monthnetchange Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 3 OVERVIEW
  • 4. Three-month growth currently rests at 702,000 jobs as unemployment remains stable at 6.3 percent 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Unemploymentrate(%) 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Monthly employment change Unemployment rate Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 4 OVERVIEW
  • 5. 90.0% 92.0% 94.0% 96.0% 98.0% 100.0% 102.0% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 1973 1981 1990 2001 2007 The national economy has finally gained back all lost jobs…79 months into the cycle Recoveredjobs(%) Past recessions (40 years) Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Pre-recession employment level 5 OVERVIEW
  • 6. Jobs lost during recession… Jobs gained during recovery… As a result, total non-farm employment is now 98,000 jobs higher than its previous peak Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 OVERVIEW
  • 7. Office-using jobs lost during recession… Office-using jobs gained during recovery… This has been the case for the office-using sector for a while, however, which continues to outperform the national economy Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 7 OVERVIEW
  • 8. -7.0 -5.0 1.0 2.0 2.9 3.0 4.0 6.0 9.9 10.0 12.5 14.3 16.4 17.0 39.0 54.9 55.0 63.0 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Nondurable goods Information Government Mining and logging Motor vehicles and parts Financial activities Other services Construction Wholesale trade Manufacturing Retail trade Temporary help services Transportation and warehousing Durable goods Leisure and hospitality Health care and social assistance Professional and business services Education and health services 1-month net change (thousands) Education and health overtakes PBS as the largest monthly contributor; growth largely concentrated in major subsectors Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 8 OVERVIEW Education and health PBS Leisure and hospitality All other subsectors Top three subsectors responsible for 72.4 percent of monthly growth.
  • 9. -31.0 0.0 17.0 45.0 46.0 46.0 65.1 105.0 105.0 125.6 132.0 188.0 223.8 316.2 317.4 363.0 391.0 635.0 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Information Nondurable goods Government Mining and logging Financial activities Other services Motor vehicles and parts Durable goods Manufacturing Transportation and warehousing Wholesale trade Construction Temporary help services Health care and social assistance Retail trade Education and health services Leisure and hospitality Professional and business services 12-month net change (thousands) PBS Leisure and hospitality Education and health Retail trade Manufacturing Financial activities All other jobs Only information posts a net loss of jobs year-on-year; PBS, health, education, retail and leisure continue to lead Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 9 Core subsectors added 78.1 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months. OVERVIEW
  • 10. -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change in '000s jobs Although lower than 2012 levels, public sector employment growth has been positive for four consecutive months Private sector hiring up 4.0 million since May 2012 Public sector shed 41,000 workers since April 2012 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 10 BRIGHT SPOT
  • 11. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Unemployment(%) Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college White-collar unemployment dropped to 3.2 percent, although high school grads saw a 20bp increase in unemployment 3.3% 6.3% Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 11 BRIGHT SPOT
  • 12. Tech and energy, mining and utilities are both on the up; total non-farm and office-using steady -11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through April 2014. 12 12-month%change(jobs) BRIGHT SPOT
  • 13. Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing slowdown in recent months Year-on-year percent employment growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 13 BRIGHT SPOT
  • 14. Initial unemployment insurance claims are declining slowly and averaging only 310,000 claims per week Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor 14 BRIGHT SPOT 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 Claims Initial claims 4-week moving average
  • 15. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Unemploymentrate(%) Consumerconfidenceindex Consumer confidence index Unemployment rate Consumer confidence increased by 70bp to 83.0 points, the third consecutive month of 80.0+ points Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics 15 BRIGHT SPOT
  • 16. 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Unemploymentrate Onlinehelpwantedads Online help wanted ads Unemployment rate Online help wanted ads are hovering around 4.9 million, high, but slowing Source: JLL Research, Conference Board 16 BRIGHT SPOT
  • 17. Bay Area, Texas and the Sunbelt markets continue to see fastest employment growth, with some growing more than 4.0 percent Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 17 BRIGHT SPOT Austin 3.5% Dallas 3.8% Jacksonville 3.3% Raleigh-Durham 4.1% Silicon Valley 4.0% Orlando 4.5%
  • 18. Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest of the country in growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 18 CHALLENGE New Jersey 0.0% Philadelphia 0.5% Washington, DC 0.2% Pittsburgh 0.5% Cleveland 0.6% Detroit -0.3%
  • 19. The labor force participation remained at a record low of 62.8 percent in May Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 19 CHALLENGE 61.0% 62.0% 63.0% 64.0% 65.0% 66.0% 67.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Laborforceparticipationrate(%)
  • 20. Total unemployment fell to 12.2 percent, but is double the official rate of 6.3 percent 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total unemployment U-6 10-year average Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 20 CHALLENGE
  • 21. Fewer than one in four jobs added in May were office-using (although rate of growth remains faster than total non-farm) Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 21 CHALLENGE
  • 22. This slowdown occurred across the board, even in PBS, which drives the office-using sector -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Information Professional and business services Financial activities PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010. In May 2014, it represented all 25.3 percent of new office jobs. Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 22 CHALLENGE
  • 23. Goods-producing employment on the up, but still suppressed due to neutral non-durable goods growth -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Goods-producing Service-providing Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 23 CHALLENGE
  • 24. 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 Jan- 07 Jan- 08 Jan- 09 Jan- 10 Jan- 11 Jan- 12 Jan- 13 Jan- 14 58 59 60 61 62 63 College graduates High school grads no college Labor force participation for high school graduates drops to just 57.9 percent Collegegraduateparticipation(%) Highschoolgraduateparticipation(%) Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 24 CHALLENGE
  • 25. Temporary help services nears 2.9 million jobs, growing at 8.5 percent year-on-year 1,000.0 1,200.0 1,400.0 1,600.0 1,800.0 2,000.0 2,200.0 2,400.0 2,600.0 2,800.0 3,000.0 -100.0 -80.0 -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Monthlynetchangeinjobs(ths) Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment Temporaryemployment(ths) Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 25 CHALLENGE
  • 26. ©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. For more information, please contact: Ben Breslau Managing Director - Americas Research Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com John Sikaitis Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research John.Sikaitis@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Research Analyst Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com Or, find more employment, business and real estate research at jll.com. >>> Click here to check it out.