U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
After an earlier pause, diversified
growth charac...
What were March’s bright spots and challenges?
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
• The U.S. economy added...
March’s 192,000-job increase represents the first
instance of above-average growth in 2014
220,000
121,000
120,000
360,000...
Revisions bring three-month employment growth to
533,000 jobs; unemployment unchanged at 6.7 percent
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8...
90.0%
92.0%
94.0%
96.0%
98.0%
100.0%
102.0%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54...
Jobs lost during recession…
Jobs gained during recovery…
95.0 percent of jobs have been recovered from the
recession; now ...
Office-using jobs lost
during recession…
Office-using jobs gained
during recovery…
All office-using jobs have been recover...
-9.0
-1.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
6.0
7.0
7.1
7.9
8.0
19.0
21.3
27.0
28.5
29.0
34.0
57.0
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Nondurable goods
Ma...
-29.0
-19.0
-1.0
34.3
38.0
40.0
57.0
72.0
73.0
94.8
118.4
151.0
247.4
289.0
315.2
334.0
406.0
667.0
-100 0 100 200 300 400...
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Change in '000s jobs
After slowing somewhat, month...
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Unemployment(%)
Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college
Similar to the national tre...
Tech still leading, while energy, mining and utilities is
more volatile
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
200...
Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing
slowdown in recent months
Year-on-year percent employment growth
Source:...
Initial unemployment insurance claims continue to
remain in the low 300,000s at recovery lows
Source: JLL Research, U.S. D...
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Consumer confidence index
Unemp...
Bay Area, Texas and the Sunbelt continue to see
fastest employment growth; spreading geographically
Source: JLL Research, ...
Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest
of the country
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Hampt...
Total unemployment fell by rose by 10bp and is
struggling to hit the 10-year average
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18....
A slowdown in growth combined with improvements
in other sectors impacting office-using’s share of gains
Source: JLL Resea...
While service-providing employment has seen a sharp
rise, it its still only average; goods’ gains declining
-1,000.0
-800....
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
58
59
60
61
62
63
College graduates
H...
Office-using job growth is slowing due to flat
information and financial activities employment
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-5...
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 201...
Temporary help services continue to rise at increasingly
faster monthly rates during 2014
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
...
Sector focus: mining and logging employment may be
small, but its growth certainly is not
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of ...
©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however...
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U.S. employment rate data and trends: March 2014

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The U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in March, a reversal from three months of slowing growth. Unemployment remained stable at 6.7 percent, but improved confidence increased the number of people looking for work. Total unemployment remains above historic norms at 12.7 percent, but 95 percent of jobs have been recovered since the recession. Positive signs include March growth being evenly distributed across industries and spreading more geographically. We expect continued positive momentum throughout 2014.

See details on the data, including demographic, geographic and industry breakdowns, in this report featuring research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and JLL.

Published in: Economy & Finance, Technology
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U.S. employment rate data and trends: March 2014

  1. 1. U.S. employment situation: September 2013 Release date: October 22, 2013 After an earlier pause, diversified growth characterized gains in March U.S. employment situation: March 2014 April 4, 2014
  2. 2. What were March’s bright spots and challenges? Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2 • The U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in March, returning to above- average gains and reversing a sharp slowdown in activity. • Unemployment remained unchanged at 6.7 percent. • 95.0 percent of jobs lost during the recession have been regained; the U.S. economy is just 0.3 percent below previous peak employment. • PBS’ record high of over 19.0 million jobs has helped to push office using employment far above its previous peak. • Growth at the subsector level was diverse; no subsector received a majority of gains. This was true for both monthly and year-on-year additions. • Unemployment for high school and college graduates dropped 10 basis points even though the official unemployment rate remained neutral. • Tech is still a leader and is slowly bouncing back from a moderate slowdown in previous years. • Unemployment insurance claims are hovering in the low 300,000s and on the verge of going below the 300,000 mark. • Geographically, job growth is spreading. While energy and tech hubs still lead, the Sunbelt is picking up slack, particularly in smaller markets that have become focal points for corporate expansion due to low cost of business and labor as well as tax incentives. • T • Total unemployment (including disaffected workers) rose by 10 basis points to 12.7 percent even as it approaches the 10-year average. • A slowdown in monthly PBS gains combined with flat growth in information and financial activities is pushing down office-using industries’ share of additions. • Goods-producing growth is slowing as service-providing sectors need to pick up the slack. • Labor force participation for both high school grads and bachelor’s degree holders is still at record lows. • Temporary help services growth shows little sign of slowing. Overview Bright spots Challenges OVERVIEW
  3. 3. March’s 192,000-job increase represents the first instance of above-average growth in 2014 220,000 121,000 120,000 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 106,000 122,000 221,000 183,000 164,000 196,000 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 160,000 150,000 161,000 225,000 203,000 214,000 197,000 280,000 141,000 203,000 199,000 201,000 149,000 202,000 164,000 237,000 274,000 84,000 144,000 197,000 192,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Oct-10 Dec-11 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 1-monthnetchange Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 3 OVERVIEW
  4. 4. Revisions bring three-month employment growth to 533,000 jobs; unemployment unchanged at 6.7 percent 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Unemploymentrate(%) 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Monthly employment change Unemployment rate Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 4 OVERVIEW
  5. 5. 90.0% 92.0% 94.0% 96.0% 98.0% 100.0% 102.0% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 1973 1981 1990 2001 2007 77 months into the cycle, total employment is now only 0.3 percent below prior peak levels Recoveredjobs(%) Past recessions (40 years) Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Pre-recession employment level 5 OVERVIEW
  6. 6. Jobs lost during recession… Jobs gained during recovery… 95.0 percent of jobs have been recovered from the recession; now 437,000 jobs below pre-recession peak Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 OVERVIEW
  7. 7. Office-using jobs lost during recession… Office-using jobs gained during recovery… All office-using jobs have been recovered, but there is now an emphasis on management, tech and design Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 7 OVERVIEW
  8. 8. -9.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 6.0 7.0 7.1 7.9 8.0 19.0 21.3 27.0 28.5 29.0 34.0 57.0 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Nondurable goods Manufacturing Motor vehicles and parts Government Financial activities Information Other services Mining and logging Wholesale trade Transportation and warehousing Durable goods Construction Retail trade Health care and social assistance Temporary help services Leisure and hospitality Education and health services Professional and business services 1-month net change (thousands) A diversified recovery is apparent in March, with growth not dominated by a single industry Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 8 OVERVIEW PBS Education and health Leisure and hospitality All other subsectors Top three subsectors responsible for 62.5 percent of monthly growth.
  9. 9. -29.0 -19.0 -1.0 34.3 38.0 40.0 57.0 72.0 73.0 94.8 118.4 151.0 247.4 289.0 315.2 334.0 406.0 667.0 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Information Government Nondurable goods Motor vehicles and parts Mining and logging Other services Financial activities Manufacturing Durable goods Transportation and warehousing Wholesale trade Construction Temporary help services Health care and social assistance Retail trade Education and health services Leisure and hospitality Professional and business services 12-month net change (thousands) PBS Leisure and hospitality Education and health Retail trade Manufacturing Financial activities All other jobs Year-on-year, core subsectors’ share of growth declined by 19.9 percentage points as well Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 9 Core subsectors added 64.1 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months. OVERVIEW
  10. 10. -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change in '000s jobs After slowing somewhat, monthly private sector additions are seeing new signs of life Private sector hiring up 4.4 million since March 2012 Public sector shed 96,000 workers since March 2012 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 10 BRIGHT SPOT
  11. 11. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Unemployment(%) Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college Similar to the national trend, educational attainment- based unemployment remains stable 3.4% 6.3% Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 11 BRIGHT SPOT
  12. 12. Tech still leading, while energy, mining and utilities is more volatile -11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through Feburary 2014. 12 12-month%change(jobs) BRIGHT SPOT
  13. 13. Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing slowdown in recent months Year-on-year percent employment growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 13 BRIGHT SPOT
  14. 14. Initial unemployment insurance claims continue to remain in the low 300,000s at recovery lows Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor 14 BRIGHT SPOT 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 Claims Initial claims 4-week moving average
  15. 15. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Consumer confidence index Unemployment rate Consumer confidence is on the rise even though unemployment has not declined noticeably in months Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics 15 BRIGHT SPOT
  16. 16. Bay Area, Texas and the Sunbelt continue to see fastest employment growth; spreading geographically Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 16 Austin 4.2% BRIGHT SPOT Orlando 3.3% Jacksonville 3.2% Houston 3.1% Raleigh- Durham 3.2% San Francisco 3.2% Silicon Valley 4.3%
  17. 17. Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest of the country Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Hampton Roads -0.5% 17 CHALLENGE Westchester County 0.3% Philadelphia 0.4% Cleveland 0.4% New Jersey 0.3% Pittsburgh 0.0%
  18. 18. Total unemployment fell by rose by 10bp and is struggling to hit the 10-year average 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total unemployment U-6 10-year average Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 18 CHALLENGE
  19. 19. A slowdown in growth combined with improvements in other sectors impacting office-using’s share of gains Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 19 CHALLENGE
  20. 20. While service-providing employment has seen a sharp rise, it its still only average; goods’ gains declining -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Goods-producing Service-providing Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 20 CHALLENGE
  21. 21. 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 Jan- 07 Jan- 08 Jan- 09 Jan- 10 Jan- 11 Jan- 12 Jan- 13 Jan- 14 58 59 60 61 62 63 College graduates High school grads no college Labor force participation still suppressed, although rising 30bp for high school graduates Collegegraduateparticipation(%) Highschoolgraduateparticipation(%) Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 21 CHALLENGE
  22. 22. Office-using job growth is slowing due to flat information and financial activities employment -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Information Professional and business services Financial activities PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010. In March 2014, it represented all 95.0 percent of new office jobs. Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 22 CHALLENGE
  23. 23. 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Unemploymentrate Onlinehelpwantedads Online help wanted ads Unemployment rate After an increase in February, online help wanted ads fall even as unemployment remains stable Source: JLL Research, Conference Board 23 CHALLENGE
  24. 24. Temporary help services continue to rise at increasingly faster monthly rates during 2014 1,000.0 1,200.0 1,400.0 1,600.0 1,800.0 2,000.0 2,200.0 2,400.0 2,600.0 2,800.0 3,000.0 -100.0 -80.0 -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Monthlynetchangeinjobs(ths) Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment Temporaryemployment(ths) Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 24 CHALLENGE
  25. 25. Sector focus: mining and logging employment may be small, but its growth certainly is not Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 25 SECTOR 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Miningandloggingemployment(thousands) Since 2010, mining and logging has added 231,000 jobs +34.6% growth since 2010 Oil and gas extraction leads year-on-year job gains 4.1 13.9 5.4 Logging Oil and gas extraction Support activities for mining Employment in mining except for oil and gas declined year-on-year
  26. 26. ©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. For more information, please contact: Ben Breslau Managing Director - Americas Research Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com John Sikaitis Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research John.Sikaitis@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Research Analyst Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com Or, find more employment, business and real estate research at jll.com. >>> Click here to check it out.
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