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U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014
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U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014

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The unemployment rate dropped yet again in June, to 6.1 percent. However, total unemployment, which dropped only 10 basis points in June to 12.1 percent, is still double that official rate. …

The unemployment rate dropped yet again in June, to 6.1 percent. However, total unemployment, which dropped only 10 basis points in June to 12.1 percent, is still double that official rate.

Total non-farm employment increased by 288,000 jobs, making June the fifth consecutive month of growth over 200,000 net new jobs. And, this growth was diverse, with the top three industry markets contributing only one-half of new jobs, and all but two subsectors showing net growth.

See more employment data, including demographic, geographic and industry breakdowns, in this report featuring research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and JLL.

Additional office market research at: http://bit.ly/1znn4KF

Published in: Economy & Finance, Technology
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  • 1. U.S. employment situation: September 2013 Release date: October 22, 2013 Another 288,000 jobs added in June signal sustained and broad growth U.S. employment situation: June 2014 July 7, 2014
  • 2. What were June’s bright spots and challenges? Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2 • Total non-farm employment increased by 288,000 jobs, the fifth consecutive month of growth of more than 200,000 net new jobs. • Unemployment declined yet again, this time to 6.1 percent. • The national economy now has 415,000 more jobs than at its pre- recession peak. • June’s employment growth was highly diverse, with the top three markets contributing only one-half of new jobs and all but two subsectors being net contributors. • Year-on-year, the story is still led by core subsectors such as PBS, although this is beginning to change as well. • Private sector hiring is up 4.8 million jobs compared to two years ago, while increases in public sector employment have also become more apparent. • Unemployment for high school grads fell dramatically to 5.8 percent, while white-collar unemployment is stable at 3.3 percent and will likely not move much lower. • Initial unemployment insurance claims continue to hover around 310,000 per week, another sign of an improving labor market. • As unemployment falls, consumer confidence is rising; the index jumped to 85.2 points in June. • Similarly, online help wanted ads are on the rise. • Midwestern and East Coast geographies continue to grapple with below-average employment growth, some still contracting. • The labor force participation rate is stuck at its record low of 62.8 percent. • Total unemployment dropped by only 10 basis points to 12.1 percent and is still double the official rate of 6.1 percent. • Although office-using jobs saw a slight comeback in June, their contribution remains smaller than earlier in the recovery. • Non-durable goods slowing down goods-producing employment. • High school graduate participation fell to 57.8 percent. Overview Bright spots Challenges OVERVIEW
  • 3. July saw the fifth consecutive month of more than 200,000 new net jobs, with revisions boosting previous growth 220,000 121,000 120,000 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 106,000 122,000 221,000 183,000 164,000 196,000 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 160,000 150,000 161,000 225,000 203,000 214,000 197,000 280,000 141,000 203,000 199,000 201,000 149,000 202,000 164,000 237,000 274,000 84,000 144,000 222,000 201,000 304,000 224,000 288,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Oct-10 Dec-11 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 1-monthnetchange Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 3 OVERVIEW
  • 4. As a result, the national economy has added 816,000 jobs over the past three months; unemployment down to 6.1 percent 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Unemploymentrate(%) 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Monthly employment change Unemployment rate Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 4 OVERVIEW
  • 5. 90.0% 92.0% 94.0% 96.0% 98.0% 100.0% 102.0% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 1973 1981 1990 2001 2007 There are now 415,000 more jobs than at the previous peak, an increase of 0.3 percent Recoveredjobs(%) Past recessions (40 years) Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Pre-recession employment level 5 OVERVIEW
  • 6. -6.0 -1.0 0.0 4.0 6.0 9.0 10.1 12.1 15.1 16.0 16.6 17.0 17.0 26.0 33.7 38.0 39.0 40.2 67.0 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Other services Nondurable goods Utilities Mining and logging Construction Information Temporary help services Motor vehicles and parts Wholesale trade Manufacturing Transportation and warehousing Financial activities Durable goods Government Health care and social assistance Education and health services Leisure and hospitality Retail trade Professional and business services 1-month net change (thousands) Growth was highly diverse in June, with the top three subsectors contributing only half of new jobs this month… Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 OVERVIEW PBS Retail trade Leisure and hospitality All other subsectors Top three subsectors responsible for 50.8 percent of monthly growth.
  • 7. -28.0 -2.8 5.0 38.0 43.0 56.0 59.0 72.2 125.0 130.0 138.7 140.2 186.0 215.9 316.8 324.3 378.0 393.0 647.0 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Information Utilities Nondurable goods Other services Mining and logging Government Financial activities Motor vehicles and parts Durable goods Manufacturing Transportation and warehousing Wholesale trade Construction Temporary help services Retail trade Health care and social assistance Education and health services Leisure and hospitality Professional and business services 12-month net change (thousands) PBS Leisure and hospitality Education and health Retail trade Manufacturing Financial activities All other jobs …helping to broaden year-on-year gains slightly, although PBS, leisure, health and retail trade remain in the front seat Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 7 Core subsectors added 77.1 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months. OVERVIEW
  • 8. -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change in '000s jobs Public-sector hiring, which had posted drop-offs earlier this year and in late 2012, is now a net contributor Private sector hiring up 4.8 million since June 2012 Public sector shed 15,000 workers since June 2012 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 8 BRIGHT SPOT
  • 9. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Unemployment(%) Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college Unemployment for high school grads drops to 5.8 percent; stability for white-collar unemployment indicates saturation 3.3% 5.8% Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 9 BRIGHT SPOT
  • 10. Total non-farm now stable at 1.8 percent for the third consecutive month; tech still leads by a wide margin -11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through May 2014. 10 12-month%change(jobs) BRIGHT SPOT
  • 11. Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing slowdown in recent months, while energy picks up a bit in recent months Year-on-year percent employment growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 11 BRIGHT SPOT
  • 12. Initial unemployment insurance claims are declining slowly and averaging only 310,000 claims per week Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor 12 BRIGHT SPOT 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 Claims Initial claims 4-week moving average
  • 13. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Unemploymentrate(%) Consumerconfidenceindex Consumer confidence index Unemployment rate On the heels of falling unemployment and stronger monthly job growth, consumer confidence reaches recovery high of 85.2 Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics 13 BRIGHT SPOT
  • 14. 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Unemploymentrate Onlinehelpwantedads Online help wanted ads Unemployment rate Online help wanted ads increase as unemployment decreases, signaling employer confidence in the labor market Source: JLL Research, Conference Board 14 BRIGHT SPOT
  • 15. Year-on-year job growth of more than 3.5 percent is becoming increasingly common in many metro areas Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 15 BRIGHT SPOT Orlando 4.5% Raleigh- Durham 4.1%Silicon Valley 4.0% Dallas 3.8% Austin 3.5%
  • 16. Still, some markets, particularly on the East Coast and in the Midwest, are in slow-growth mode Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 16 CHALLENGE Hampton Roads -0.3% Detroit -0.3% New Jersey 0.0% Westchester County 0.5% Washington, DC 0.5%
  • 17. The labor force participation is stuck at 62.8 percent, a record low for decades Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 17 CHALLENGE 61.0% 62.0% 63.0% 64.0% 65.0% 66.0% 67.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Laborforceparticipationrate(%)
  • 18. Total unemployment is stubbornly high at 12.1 percent, but is slowly decreasing and approaching the 10-year average 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total unemployment U-6 10-year average Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 18 CHALLENGE
  • 19. One-third of jobs added in June were office-using category, an increase from previous months but still below average Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 19 CHALLENGE
  • 20. Office-using gains have been less consistent of late than earlier in the recovery, reducing year-on-year growth to 2.3 percent -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Information Professional and business services Financial activities PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010. In June 2014, it represented all 23.3 percent of new office jobs. Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 20 CHALLENGE
  • 21. Goods-producing employment remains low, averaging only 38,667 new jobs per month in 2012 -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Goods-producing Service-providing Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 21 CHALLENGE
  • 22. As with the overall economy, labor force participation in both college and high school grads is falling Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 22 CHALLENGE 55.0% 56.0% 57.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0% 61.0% 62.0% 63.0% 64.0% 70.0% 71.0% 72.0% 73.0% 74.0% 75.0% 76.0% 77.0% 78.0% 79.0% 80.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Highschoolgraduatelaborforceparticipationrate(%) Collegegraduatelaborforceparticipationrate(%) Bachelor's degree High school, no college
  • 23. Temporary help services nears 2.9 million jobs, growing at 8.1 percent year-on-year 1,000.0 1,200.0 1,400.0 1,600.0 1,800.0 2,000.0 2,200.0 2,400.0 2,600.0 2,800.0 3,000.0 -100.0 -80.0 -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Monthlynetchangeinjobs(ths) Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment Temporaryemployment(ths) Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 23 CHALLENGE
  • 24. ©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. For more information, please contact: Ben Breslau Managing Director - Americas Research Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com John Sikaitis Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research John.Sikaitis@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Research Analyst Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com Or, find more employment, business and real estate research at jll.com. >>> Click here to check it out.

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