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U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
Seven months into the year,
employment is up by 1...
What were July’s bright spots and challenges?
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
• The U.S. economy added ...
July marked the sixth consecutive month of 200,000+ monthly
job growth; revisions to previous months a slight boost
220,00...
As a result, the national economy has added 736,000 jobs over
the past three months; unemployment up 10bp at 6.2 percent
0...
90.0%
92.0%
94.0%
96.0%
98.0%
100.0%
102.0%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54...
-2.0
1.2
2.0
2.7
7.0
7.0
7.9
8.0
8.5
11.0
14.6
17.0
21.0
22.0
25.4
26.7
28.0
30.0
47.0
-40 -20 0 20 40 60
Nondurable goods...
-31.0
0.0
9.0
48.0
49.0
50.0
60.7
91.0
127.3
150.8
169.0
178.0
211.0
216.7
297.6
336.3
375.0
375.0
648.0
-100 0 100 200 30...
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Change in '000s jobs
Local government hiring in re...
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Unemployment(%)
Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college
Although high school unempl...
Goods-producing employment is rising and has seen monthly
gains consistently of more than 20,000 jobs throughout 2014
-1,0...
Total non-farm growth now at 1.9 percent; tech still leads by a
wide margin
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0...
Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing slowdown in
recent months, while energy picks up a bit in recent months
...
Initial unemployment insurance claims are now hovering around
the 300,000 mark each week
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Depart...
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Unemploymentrate(%)
Consumercon...
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 201...
Year-on-year job growth of more than 3.0 percent is becoming
increasingly common in many metro areas
Source: JLL Research,...
Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still posting
job growth below 1.0 percent year-on-year, however
17
CHALLENGE
N...
The labor force participation is stuck at 62.9 percent, near the
record lows seen earlier this year
Source: JLL Research, ...
Total unemployment is stubbornly high at 12.2 percent, not
helped by July’s bump in unemployment to 6.2 percent
6.0%
8.0%
...
The slowdown in PBS growth has had a measurable impact
on the office-using sector, contributing a quarter of new jobs
Sour...
Office-using growth has become increasingly unstable, with
year-on-year growth slowing to the 2.3-percent range
-300
-250
...
Labor force participation in both college and high school grads
is falling and has yet to flatline
Source: JLL Research, B...
Temporary help services nears 2.9 million jobs, although its
rate of growth is slowing somewhat
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,...
©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however...
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U.S. employment rate data and trends July 2014

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Seven months into the year, employment is up by 1.6 million jobs.

Although challenges remain regarding labor force participation, marginally detached workers and part-time employment, the overall picture is one of consistent—even if slightly sluggish—growth.

See more employment data, including demographic, geographic and industry breakdowns, in this report featuring research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and JLL.

Additional office market research at: http://bit.ly/1y32n3d

Published in: Economy & Finance
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Transcript of "U.S. employment rate data and trends July 2014"

  1. 1. U.S. employment situation: September 2013 Release date: October 22, 2013 Seven months into the year, employment is up by 1.6 million jobs U.S. employment situation: July 2014 August 1, 2014
  2. 2. What were July’s bright spots and challenges? Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2 • The U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs in July. Combined with revised figures for the previous two months, the three-month trailing total is now 736,000 jobs. • The unemployment rate increased by 10 basis points to 6.2 percent, remaining relatively flat as has been the case through much of the recovery. • Monthly growth has become increasingly evenly distributed, with the top three contributors responsible for less than one half of jobs added in July. • The sustained 200,000+ monthly additions have pushed year-on-year total non-farm employment up 1.9 percent with diverse contributors. • Unemployment for college graduates dropped yet again, this month to 3.1 percent. While high school unemployment increased, both are below the national rate. • Goods-producing employment is making a comeback and has consistently shown 20,000+ monthly gains. • Tech’s year-on-year increase is now at 4.2 percent, while energy is also on the up. • Initial claims are falling, with weekly figures now hovering around 300,000. • Consumer confidence exceeds 90 points as indicators continue to rise. • Online help wanted ads, despite no growth, are still at record highs. • Some East Coast and Midwestern markets continue to post year-on- year job growth of less than 1.0 percent. • The labor force participation rate is neutral at 62.9 percent, near the record low reached earlier in 2014. • Total unemployment also rose by 10 basis points to 12.2 percent. • PBS’ slowdown in job creation means that slightly more than one quarter of new jobs in July were office-using. The labor force participation rate for both high school and college graduates is on the decline. • Temporary help services remains at record highs and is approaching 2.9 million. Overview Bright spots Challenges OVERVIEW
  3. 3. July marked the sixth consecutive month of 200,000+ monthly job growth; revisions to previous months a slight boost 220,000 121,000 120,000 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 106,000 122,000 221,000 183,000 164,000 196,000 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 160,000 150,000 161,000 225,000 203,000 214,000 197,000 280,000 141,000 203,000 199,000 201,000 149,000 202,000 164,000 237,000 274,000 84,000 144,000 222,000 201,000 304,000 229,000 298,000 209,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Oct-10 Dec-11 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 1-monthnetchange Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 3 OVERVIEW
  4. 4. As a result, the national economy has added 736,000 jobs over the past three months; unemployment up 10bp at 6.2 percent 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Unemploymentrate(%) 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Monthly employment change Unemployment rate Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 4 OVERVIEW
  5. 5. 90.0% 92.0% 94.0% 96.0% 98.0% 100.0% 102.0% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 1973 1981 1990 2001 2007 There are now 639,000 more jobs than at the previous peak, an increase of 0.5 percent Recoveredjobs(%) Past recessions (40 years) Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Pre-recession employment level 5 OVERVIEW
  6. 6. -2.0 1.2 2.0 2.7 7.0 7.0 7.9 8.0 8.5 11.0 14.6 17.0 21.0 22.0 25.4 26.7 28.0 30.0 47.0 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Nondurable goods Utilities Information Wholesale trade Other services Financial activities Transportation and warehousing Mining and logging Temporary help services Government Motor vehicles and parts Education and health services Leisure and hospitality Construction Health care and social assistance Retail trade Manufacturing Durable goods Professional and business services 1-month net change (thousands) Monthly growth was even more evenly distributed in July, with the top three sectors contributing less than half of all new jobs Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 OVERVIEW PBS Manufacturing Retail trade All other subsectors Top three subsectors responsible for 48.7 percent of monthly growth.
  7. 7. -31.0 0.0 9.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 60.7 91.0 127.3 150.8 169.0 178.0 211.0 216.7 297.6 336.3 375.0 375.0 648.0 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Information Utilities Nondurable goods Other services Mining and logging Financial activities Motor vehicles and parts Government Wholesale trade Transportation and warehousing Durable goods Manufacturing Construction Temporary help services Retail trade Health care and social assistance Education and health services Leisure and hospitality Professional and business services 12-month net change (thousands) PBS Leisure and hospitality Education and health Retail trade Manufacturing Financial activities All other jobs Year-on-year gains also continue to broaden as PBS growth slows and other sectors catch up Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 7 Core subsectors added 74.8 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months. OVERVIEW
  8. 8. -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change in '000s jobs Local government hiring in recent months has pushed public- sector employment up compared to two years ago Private sector hiring up 4.8 million since July 2012 Public sector hiring up 11,000 workers since July 2012 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 8 BRIGHT SPOT
  9. 9. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Unemployment(%) Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college Although high school unemployment nudged up, both levels remain below the national unemployment rate 3.1% 6.1% Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 9 BRIGHT SPOT
  10. 10. Goods-producing employment is rising and has seen monthly gains consistently of more than 20,000 jobs throughout 2014 -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Goods-producing Service-providing Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 10 BRIGHT SPOT
  11. 11. Total non-farm growth now at 1.9 percent; tech still leads by a wide margin -11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through June 2014. 11 12-month%change(jobs) BRIGHT SPOT
  12. 12. Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing slowdown in recent months, while energy picks up a bit in recent months Year-on-year percent employment growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 12 BRIGHT SPOT
  13. 13. Initial unemployment insurance claims are now hovering around the 300,000 mark each week Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor 13 BRIGHT SPOT 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 Claims Initial claims 4-week moving average
  14. 14. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Unemploymentrate(%) Consumerconfidenceindex Consumer confidence index Unemployment rate Consumer confidence breaks the 90-point threshold for the first time since before the recession as indicators trend upward Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics 14 BRIGHT SPOT
  15. 15. 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Unemploymentrate Onlinehelpwantedads Online help wanted ads Unemployment rate Online help wanted ads remain near record highs, but flat in July as unemployment changes little Source: JLL Research, Conference Board 15 BRIGHT SPOT
  16. 16. Year-on-year job growth of more than 3.0 percent is becoming increasingly common in many metro areas Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 16 BRIGHT SPOT Orlando 3.7% Jacksonville 3.2% Silicon Valley 3.4% Austin 3.6% Dallas 3.6% Houston 3.1% Portland 3.1%
  17. 17. Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still posting job growth below 1.0 percent year-on-year, however 17 CHALLENGE New Jersey 0.2% Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Detroit 0.3% Chicago 0.7% Hampton Roads 0.3% Kansas City 0.2% Pittsburgh 0.9% Washington, DC 0.9%
  18. 18. The labor force participation is stuck at 62.9 percent, near the record lows seen earlier this year Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 18 CHALLENGE 61.0% 62.0% 63.0% 64.0% 65.0% 66.0% 67.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Laborforceparticipationrate(%)
  19. 19. Total unemployment is stubbornly high at 12.2 percent, not helped by July’s bump in unemployment to 6.2 percent 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total unemployment U-6 10-year average Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 19 CHALLENGE
  20. 20. The slowdown in PBS growth has had a measurable impact on the office-using sector, contributing a quarter of new jobs Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 20 CHALLENGE
  21. 21. Office-using growth has become increasingly unstable, with year-on-year growth slowing to the 2.3-percent range -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Information Professional and business services Financial activities PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010. In July 2014, it represented all 83.9 percent of new office jobs. Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 21 CHALLENGE
  22. 22. Labor force participation in both college and high school grads is falling and has yet to flatline Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 22 CHALLENGE 54.0% 55.0% 56.0% 57.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0% 61.0% 62.0% 63.0% 64.0% 70.0% 71.0% 72.0% 73.0% 74.0% 75.0% 76.0% 77.0% 78.0% 79.0% 80.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Highschoolgraduatelaborforceparticipationrate(%) Collegegraduatelaborforceparticipationrate(%) Bachelor's degree High school, no college
  23. 23. Temporary help services nears 2.9 million jobs, although its rate of growth is slowing somewhat 1,000.0 1,200.0 1,400.0 1,600.0 1,800.0 2,000.0 2,200.0 2,400.0 2,600.0 2,800.0 3,000.0 -100.0 -80.0 -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Monthlynetchangeinjobs(ths) Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment Temporaryemployment(ths) Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 23 CHALLENGE
  24. 24. ©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. For more information, please contact: Ben Breslau Managing Director - Americas Research Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com John Sikaitis Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research John.Sikaitis@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Research Analyst Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com Or, find more employment, business and real estate research at jll.com. >>> Click here to check it out.
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