U.S. employment rate data and trends April 2014

727 views
680 views

Published on

The U.S. economy rebounded in April. It added 288,000 jobs, the highest one-month net change since January 2012, and saw unemployment decline 40 basis points to 6.3 percent, the lowest rate during the recovery so far. The labor force is expected to reach its previous peak in May, as only 113,000 jobs are needed to do so.

At the subsector level, growth was diverse, with all but two components (information, and transportation and warehousing) recording monthly expansion.

See details on the data, including demographic, geographic and industry breakdowns, in this report featuring research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and JLL.

Published in: Economy & Finance, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
727
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
4
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

U.S. employment rate data and trends April 2014

  1. 1. U.S. employment situation: September 2013 Release date: October 22, 2013 More bright spots emerge on the heels of largest growth in two years U.S. employment situation: April 2014 May 2, 2014
  2. 2. What were March’s bright spots and challenges? Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2 • Total non-farm employment increased by 288,000 jobs, the highest one-month net change since January 2012. • Unemployment fell by 40 basis points to 6.3 percent, the lowest rate during the recovery so far. • Revisions to previous months, along with strong employment growth in April, means that the U.S. economy is only 113,000 jobs away from previous peak employment, which will likely occur in May. • Gains were highly diverse in April, with PBS, the leader this month, only responsible for 26.0 percent of jobs added. Only transportation and warehousing and information posted contractions over the month. • Unemployment for high school and college graduates remained stable at 6.3 and 3.3 percent, respectively. • Tech still leading; energy, mining and utilities growth is stabilizing at around 2.1 percent. • Initial unemployment claims remain below 350,000. • Consumer confidence remained in the low 80 point rage, in line with drops in unemployment and continued diversification of the recovery. • Online help wanted ads increased slightly in April as the economy continued to slowly improve. • Job growth is still strongest in Sunbelt but moving to other geographies. • Midwestern and East Coast geographies continue to grapple with below-average employment growth, some still contracting. • Despite falling to 12.3 percent, total unemployment remains elevated. • Weaker growth in financial activities and information is pulling down office-using job growth. While other subsectors saw higher gains, office- using growth was moderate. • Goods-producing employment is on the up, but is unstable. • The labor force participation rate for high school graduates declined once again and currently rests at 58.0 percent. • Another 24,000 temporary jobs were added to the economy. Overview Bright spots Challenges OVERVIEW
  3. 3. Employment growth rebounded in April with 288,000 new jobs, the highest growth since January 2012 220,000 121,000 120,000 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 106,000 122,000 221,000 183,000 164,000 196,000 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 160,000 150,000 161,000 225,000 203,000 214,000 197,000 280,000 141,000 203,000 199,000 201,000 149,000 202,000 164,000 237,000 274,000 84,000 144,000 222,000 203,000 288,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Oct-10 Dec-11 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 1-monthnetchange Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 3 OVERVIEW
  4. 4. Along with revisions, three-month gains total 713,000 as unemployment drops to 6.3 percent 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Unemploymentrate(%) 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Monthly employment change Unemployment rate Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 4 OVERVIEW
  5. 5. 90.0% 92.0% 94.0% 96.0% 98.0% 100.0% 102.0% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 1973 1981 1990 2001 2007 78 months into the cycle, total employment is now less than 0.1 percent below prior peak levels Recoveredjobs(%) Past recessions (40 years) Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Pre-recession employment level 5 OVERVIEW
  6. 6. Jobs lost during recession… Jobs gained during recovery… 98.7 percent of jobs have been recovered from the recession; now 113,000 jobs below pre-recession peak Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 OVERVIEW
  7. 7. Office-using jobs lost during recession… Office-using jobs gained during recovery… All office-using jobs have been recovered, but there is now an emphasis on management, tech and design Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 7 OVERVIEW
  8. 8. -3.0 -2.7 1.0 5.7 6.0 9.0 11.0 12.0 15.0 15.0 15.7 24.0 27.9 28.0 32.0 34.5 40.0 75.0 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Information Transportation and warehousing Nondurable goods Motor vehicles and parts Financial activities Mining and logging Durable goods Manufacturing Government Other services Wholesale trade Temporary help services Health care and social assistance Leisure and hospitality Construction Retail trade Education and health services Professional and business services 1-month net change (thousands) PBS, leading in April, captured only one-quarter of new jobs, demonstrated sustained diversity in gains Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 8 OVERVIEW PBS Education and health Retail trade All other subsectors Top three subsectors responsible for 51.9 percent of monthly growth.
  9. 9. -32.0 -6.0 8.0 49.0 53.0 54.0 63.4 91.0 99.0 105.0 125.9 189.0 242.9 275.7 326.9 327.0 412.0 666.0 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Information Government Nondurable goods Mining and logging Financial activities Other services Motor vehicles and parts Durable goods Manufacturing Transportation and warehousing Wholesale trade Construction Temporary help services Health care and social assistance Retail trade Education and health services Leisure and hospitality Professional and business services 12-month net change (thousands) PBS Leisure and hospitality Education and health Retail trade Manufacturing Financial activities All other jobs Year-on-year, however, core subsectors were the drivers of activity, accounting for four in five new jobs Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 9 Core subsectors added 80.0 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months. OVERVIEW
  10. 10. -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change in '000s jobs Both private and public sector hiring is on the up, although the latter is still seeing net 2-year contractions Private sector hiring up 4.6 million since April 2012 Public sector shed 62,000 workers since April 2012 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 10 BRIGHT SPOT
  11. 11. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Unemployment(%) Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college Despite drops across the board, high school and college graduate unemployment largely remains stable 3.3% 6.3% Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 11 BRIGHT SPOT
  12. 12. Tech still leading as energy, mining and utilities stabilizes at 2.1 percent -11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through March 2014. 12 12-month%change(jobs) BRIGHT SPOT
  13. 13. Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing slowdown in recent months Year-on-year percent employment growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 13 BRIGHT SPOT
  14. 14. Initial unemployment insurance claims stay below 350,000 for 17 consecutive months despite slight uptick Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor 14 BRIGHT SPOT 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 Claims Initial claims 4-week moving average
  15. 15. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Consumer confidence index Unemployment rate Consumer confidence stable in the low 80s as unemployment drops Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics 15 BRIGHT SPOT
  16. 16. 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Unemploymentrate Onlinehelpwantedads Online help wanted ads Unemployment rate Online help wanted ads up slightly in line with drops in unemployment Source: JLL Research, Conference Board 16 BRIGHT SPOT
  17. 17. Bay Area, Texas and the Sunbelt continue to see fastest employment growth; spreading geographically Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 17 BRIGHT SPOT Silicon Valley 4.3% Houston 2.9% Dallas 3.0% Austin 3.9% Raleigh- Durham 3.7% South Florida 3.1%
  18. 18. Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest of the country in growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 18 CHALLENGE Westchester County 0.4% Cleveland 0.6% Detroit -0.2% Philadelphia 0.1% Pittsburgh -0.5% Milwaukee 0.3%
  19. 19. Total unemployment fell to 12.3 percent, but has yet to reach the 10-year average 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total unemployment U-6 10-year average Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 19 CHALLENGE
  20. 20. Weak financial activities and information employment is dragging down office-using employment growth… Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 20 CHALLENGE
  21. 21. …which did not see the same monthly gains as other subsectors did -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Information Professional and business services Financial activities PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010. In April 2014, it represented all 26.0 percent of new office jobs. Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 21 CHALLENGE
  22. 22. Goods-producing employment on the up, but still suppressed due to neutral non-durable goods growth -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Goods-producing Service-providing Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 22 CHALLENGE
  23. 23. 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 Jan- 07 Jan- 08 Jan- 09 Jan- 10 Jan- 11 Jan- 12 Jan- 13 Jan- 14 58 59 60 61 62 63 College graduates High school grads no college Labor force participation for high school graduates drops to just 58.0 percent Collegegraduateparticipation(%) Highschoolgraduateparticipation(%) Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 23 CHALLENGE
  24. 24. Temporary help services still a fast grower, up 24,000 in April to 2.9 million temporary jobs 1,000.0 1,200.0 1,400.0 1,600.0 1,800.0 2,000.0 2,200.0 2,400.0 2,600.0 2,800.0 3,000.0 -100.0 -80.0 -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Monthlynetchangeinjobs(ths) Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment Temporaryemployment(ths) Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 24 CHALLENGE
  25. 25. ©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. For more information, please contact: Ben Breslau Managing Director - Americas Research Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com John Sikaitis Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research John.Sikaitis@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Research Analyst Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com Or, find more employment, business and real estate research at jll.com. >>> Click here to check it out.

×