An abnormally slow
December caps off the
year with a range of bright
spots as well as challenges

U.S. employment situatio...
What were this month’s bright spots and challenges?
Overview
•
•
•

•

•
•

The U.S. economy added 74,000
jobs in December...
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-11
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar...
Three-month net change down to 515,000…but
unemployment drops 30 basis points to 6.7 percent
600

Monthly employment chang...
74 months into the cycle, total employment is now less
than 0.9 percent below prior peak levels
Past recessions (40 years)...
86.5 percent of jobs have been recovered from the
recession; now 1.2 million jobs below pre-recession peak

Jobs lost duri...
All office-using jobs have been recovered, but are much
more tech- and management-centered

Office-using jobs lost
during ...
Trade, PBS, manufacturing and leisure contribute the
majority gains in an otherwise slow month
Retail trade

Retail trade
...
Over the year, however, core growth areas PBS, leisure,
retail trade and education and health remain dominant
Professional...
Tech still leading, while energy, mining and utilities
growing, but at national rates of growth
High-tech

Energy, Mining,...
Service-providing industries see best year during the
recovery (+2.0 million jobs)
Goods-producing

Service-providing

600...
High school graduates see unemployment fall to 7.1
percent; rate stable, but much lower, for degree holders
Bachelor's deg...
Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing
slowdown in recent months
Year-on-year percent growth

Source: Jones Lan...
Initial unemployment insurance claims fall to new lows,
wobbling between 330,000 and 360,0000 per week
Initial claims

4-w...
Online help wanted ads jump by 126,500 as
unemployment drops to a recovery-low in December
6,000,000

12.0%

New help want...
In line with a drop in unemployment, the consumer
confidence index increased 6.1 points in December
100

12%

Consumer con...
After a year dominated by the Sunbelt, a more varied
landscape of employment growth emerges

New York
2.8%
Silicon Valley
...
Overall wage growth and a falling number of
discouraged workers point in a positive direction

+$12.07 (+1.5%)

+5.2% y-o-...
Total unemployment remains steady at 13.1 percent for
the month, but trending downward
Total unemployment U-6

10-year ave...
High school graduates’ participation rate drops to just
58.0 percent, with college graduate rate stable
79

College gradua...
Private sector is responsible for all gains (101.1 percent)
in 2013; government jobs continue their contraction
Private se...
Growth in trade and overall diversification of growth
push down office-using industries’ share of gains

Source: Jones Lan...
Information’s 12,000-job contraction reduces growth in
office-using industries
Information

Professional and business serv...
Temporary help services posts sharp jump in
employment, surpasses 2.8 million for the first time ever
Temporary employment...
Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest
of the country

Milwaukee
0.1%
OaklandEast Bay
0.3%

Source: Jones La...
Other supplementary indicators show that many
challenges still remain

+2,893,000 (+3.2%)

-6 minutes

The number of peopl...
For more information, please contact:
Ben Breslau
Managing Director - Americas Research
Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com
John S...
In addition to
unemployment reports,
we regularly publish
research on economic and
other factors that impact
commercial re...
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U.S. unemployment rate data and trends: December 2013

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After adding 74,000 jobs in December, the U.S. unemployment rate fell 30 basis points to 6.7 percent—though total unemployment, which includes individuals who have stopped actively seeking jobs, stuck at 13.1 percent. The economy has recovered 86.5 percent of jobs lost in the downturn and we’re now 0.9 percent below previous peak unemployment, with office-using employment 47.1 percent higher than the previous peak.

See details on the data, including demographic, geographic and industry breakdowns, in this report featuring research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Jones Lang LaSalle.

Published in: Economy & Finance, Technology
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U.S. unemployment rate data and trends: December 2013

  1. 1. An abnormally slow December caps off the year with a range of bright spots as well as challenges U.S. employment situation: September 2013 U.S. employment situation: December 2013 Release date: October 22, 2013 Release date: January 10, 2014
  2. 2. What were this month’s bright spots and challenges? Overview • • • • • • The U.S. economy added 74,000 jobs in December. Unemployment fell 30 basis points to 6.7 percent. 86.5 percent of jobs have been recovered; now less than 0.9 percent below previous peak employment. Office-using employment is 47.1 percent higher than previous peak. Trade, PBS, leisure and manufacturing the largest contributors to monthly growth. PBS, retail trade, leisure and hospitality and education and health the largest contributors to year-on-year growth. Bright spots Challenges • • • • • • • Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Service-providing industries see best year during the recovery (+2.0 million jobs). Unemployment down to 7.1 percent for high school graduates with no college; stable and much lower for degree holders. Tech still posting growth well above the national average. Initial unemployment insurance claims wobble near recovery lows. Consumer confidence sees 6.1point rebound in line with drop in unemployment. Fastest-growing metro areas sees some geographic expansion. • • • • • Total unemployment stuck at 13.1 percent, still very elevated compared to historic norms. Private sector responsible for all gains throughout the year, however seeing slowdown. Information’s 12,000-job monthly contraction pushes down officeusing gains and share of overall one-month net job growth. Labor force participation rate nationally is down to 62.8 percent and for high school graduates down to 58.0 percent. Temporary help services sees 40,400 new jobs added in December, surpasses 2.8 million. Midwest and East Coast markets still lag rest of national recovery OVERVIEW 2
  3. 3. Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-11 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 120,000 100,000 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 89,000 87,000 199,000 200,000 175,000 172,000 271,000 247,000 241,000 238,000 219,000 205,000 223,000 202,000 176,000 142,000 148,000 160,000 138,000 165,000 153,000 125,000 157,000 200,000 112,000 112,000 85,000 96,000 251,000 246,000 220,000 300,000 84,000 110,000 332,000 311,000 350,000 74,000 54,000 150,000 121,000 250,000 220,000 1-month net change December saw the addition of only 74,000 jobs, the second-lowest monthly gain throughout the recovery 50,000 0 OVERVIEW 3
  4. 4. Three-month net change down to 515,000…but unemployment drops 30 basis points to 6.7 percent 600 Monthly employment change 12% Unemployment rate 10% 200 8% 0 -200 6% -400 4% -600 2% -800 -1000 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 OVERVIEW 4 Unemployment rate (%) One-month net change (thousands) 400
  5. 5. 74 months into the cycle, total employment is now less than 0.9 percent below prior peak levels Past recessions (40 years) 1973 1981 1990 2001 2007 102% Pre-recession employment level Recovered jobs (%) 100% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics OVERVIEW 5
  6. 6. 86.5 percent of jobs have been recovered from the recession; now 1.2 million jobs below pre-recession peak Jobs lost during recession… Jobs gained during recovery… Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics OVERVIEW 6
  7. 7. All office-using jobs have been recovered, but are much more tech- and management-centered Office-using jobs lost during recession… Office-using jobs gained during recovery… Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics OVERVIEW 7
  8. 8. Trade, PBS, manufacturing and leisure contribute the majority gains in an otherwise slow month Retail trade Retail trade Temporary help services Professional and business services 19.0 Wholesale trade 9.0 Leisure and hospitality Education and health All other jobs 15.4 Manufacturing Leisure and hospitality Financial activities 40.4 PBS Manufacturing 55.3 9.0 Durable goods 6.0 Mining and logging 4.0 Financial activities 4.0 Nondurable goods 3.0 Motor vehicles and parts 1.0 Other services 1.0 Education and health services 0.0 Transportation and warehousing -0.6 Health care and social assistance -1.0 Information -12.0 Government -13.0 Construction -16.0 -40 -20 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 0 20 40 60 80 Core subsectors added more jobs than monthly net total. OVERVIEW 8
  9. 9. Over the year, however, core growth areas PBS, leisure, retail trade and education and health remain dominant Professional and business services 637.0 Leisure and hospitality Retail trade Education and health services 327.0 Health care and social assistance Leisure and hospitality Education and health Financial services 380.8 PBS Retail trade 390.0 Manufacturing All other jobs 280.2 Temporary help services 247.4 Construction 122.0 Wholesale trade 95.0 Financial activities 84.0 Manufacturing 77.0 Durable goods 76.0 Transportation and warehousing 42.2 Motor vehicles and parts 39.8 Mining and logging 31.0 Other services 30.0 Nondurable goods 1.0 Information -4.0 Government -25.0 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 12-month net change (thousands) Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 600 700 Core subsectors added 86.7 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months. OVERVIEW 9
  10. 10. Tech still leading, while energy, mining and utilities growing, but at national rates of growth High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm 7.0 5.0 12-month % change 3.0 1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -5.0 -7.0 -9.0 -11.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through November 2013. 2013 OVERVIEW 10
  11. 11. Service-providing industries see best year during the recovery (+2.0 million jobs) Goods-producing Service-providing 600 One-month net change (thousands) 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 2008 2009 2010 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2011 2012 2013 BRIGHT SPOT 11
  12. 12. High school graduates see unemployment fall to 7.1 percent; rate stable, but much lower, for degree holders Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college 12 7.1% 10 8 6 4 2 3.3% 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 BRIGHT SPOT 12
  13. 13. Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing slowdown in recent months Year-on-year percent growth Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics BRIGHT SPOT 13
  14. 14. Initial unemployment insurance claims fall to new lows, wobbling between 330,000 and 360,0000 per week Initial claims 4-week moving average 650,000 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 4 week moving average below 400,000 claims (consistently) means economy is adding jobs 300,000 250,000 Mar-08 Mar-09 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, U.S. Department of Labor Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 BRIGHT SPOT 14
  15. 15. Online help wanted ads jump by 126,500 as unemployment drops to a recovery-low in December 6,000,000 12.0% New help wanted ads Unemployment rate 4,000,000 8.0% 3,000,000 6.0% 2,000,000 4.0% 2.0% 0 0.0% 2008 2009 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Conference Board 2010 2011 2012 Unemployment rate 10.0% 1,000,000 Online help wanted ads 5,000,000 2013 BRIGHT SPOT 15
  16. 16. In line with a drop in unemployment, the consumer confidence index increased 6.1 points in December 100 12% Consumer confidence index Unemployment rate 90 10% 80 70 8% 60 50 6% 40 4% 30 20 2% 10 0 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2012 2013 BRIGHT SPOT 16
  17. 17. After a year dominated by the Sunbelt, a more varied landscape of employment growth emerges New York 2.8% Silicon Valley 2.9% Dallas 2.7% Austin 2.7% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Houston 3.1% Tampa 3.3% BRIGHT SPOT 17
  18. 18. Overall wage growth and a falling number of discouraged workers point in a positive direction +$12.07 (+1.5%) +5.2% y-o-y Average weekly earnings are on the up year-on-year Management and technical consulting among the strongest components of PBS -151,000 (-14.1%) -140bp The number of discouraged workers has fallen by 14.1 percent year-on-year PBS-related unemployment is down 140 basis points year-on-year Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics BRIGHT SPOT 18
  19. 19. Total unemployment remains steady at 13.1 percent for the month, but trending downward Total unemployment U-6 10-year average 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 CHALLENGE 19
  20. 20. High school graduates’ participation rate drops to just 58.0 percent, with college graduate rate stable 79 College graduates 63 High school grads no college 62 77 61 76 60 75 74 59 73 High school graduates College graduates 78 58 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 CHALLENGE 20
  21. 21. Private sector is responsible for all gains (101.1 percent) in 2013; government jobs continue their contraction Private sector hiring up 4.5 million since December 2011 Change in '000s jobs 400 200 0 -200 Public sector shed 112,000 workers since November 2011 -400 -600 -800 -1,000 2008 2009 2010 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2011 2012 2013 CHALLENGE 21
  22. 22. Growth in trade and overall diversification of growth push down office-using industries’ share of gains Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics CHALLENGE 22
  23. 23. Information’s 12,000-job contraction reduces growth in office-using industries Information Professional and business services Financial activities 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010. In December 2013, it represented all net new office-using jobs. -200 -250 -300 2009 2010 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2011 2012 2013 CHALLENGE 23
  24. 24. Temporary help services posts sharp jump in employment, surpasses 2.8 million for the first time ever Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment 60 Monthly net change in jobs (ths) 3,000 2,800 40 2,600 2,400 20 2,200 0 2,000 -20 1,800 -40 Temporary employment (ths) 80 1,600 -60 1,400 -80 1,200 -100 1,000 2009 2010 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2011 2012 2013 CHALLENGE 24
  25. 25. Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest of the country Milwaukee 0.1% OaklandEast Bay 0.3% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Cleveland -0.8% Westchester County 0.5% St. Louis 0.5% CHALLENGE
  26. 26. Other supplementary indicators show that many challenges still remain +2,893,000 (+3.2%) -6 minutes The number of people out of the workforce has risen by 3.2 percent year-on-year On average, employees are working six fewer minutes (-0.1 hours) year-on-year -1,000 jobs (-0.0%) 62.8% (-20bp) Legal services has seen a 12-month net contraction of 1,000 jobs The labor force participation rate fell 20 basis points to 62.8 percent Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics CHALLENGE 26
  27. 27. For more information, please contact: Ben Breslau Managing Director - Americas Research Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com John Sikaitis Managing Director - Office & Local Markets Research John.Sikaitis@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Research Analyst Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com ©2014 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
  28. 28. In addition to unemployment reports, we regularly publish research on economic and other factors that impact commercial real estate. >> See all research U.S. employment situation: September 2013 Release date: October 22, 2013

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