Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

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Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method
Best Practice Workshop: Technology Roadmapping
Brno, 5 February 2013
Dr Robert Phaal (Centre for Technology Management)

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  • 1. Best Practice Workshop: Technology Roadmapping Brno, 5 February 2013 Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method Dr Robert Phaal Centre for Technology Management Topics • History and concept of roadmapping • Example roadmaps • Generalisation and customisation • Workshop methods
  • 2. 2014 Business Premier Database, Beeton, D (2007) 2500 ? 2003 UN 1997 Philips, EIRMA 1991 ITRS 1945 Motorola 1987 0 CTM research •‘Fast-start’ ‘ ’ • Customisation • Integration • Visualisation 1952 2005 Roadmaps as ‘strategic lenses’ ’ Business / strategic issue Roadmap ‘lens’ ’ Information structure Graphical style Understanding & communication
  • 3. Motorola Roadmap Matrix Year Tuning Selectivity 1982 1983 Push button Display Vehicular LAN Digital modulation 1985 1986 LEDs Maps 1u CMOS Liquid crystal Fluorescence Single wire Glass fibre 500 kHz bandwidth RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 Stereo Plus: Plus: Seek 1991 Voice actuated Data 3u CMOS Consensus-based roadmap + ‘minority report’ ’ Report + summary graphic Updated frequently Scan 1990 Digital signal processors Paging 5u CMOS 1989 Touch pad - Synthesizers RECEIVER 1 PRODUCTS 1988 SAWs Stereo Linear 1987 Push button - Synthesizers Ceramic resonators Subcarrier function IC technology 1984 Personal paging NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION Plus: A NEW SERVICE Stock market Road information Remote amplifiers Remote controls Super Hi Fi Local maps Source: Willyard & McClees, 1987 Lucent Technologies technology roadmap Albright & Kappel (2003)
  • 4. Lucent Technologies technology roadmapping approach Source: Richard Albright The Albright Strategy Group, www.albrightstrategy.com Philips (modern ‘standard’ format) ’ EIRMA, 1997
  • 5. International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors, 2003 http://public.itrs.net/ ‘Red brick wall’ Sony DRAM Roadmap #1 http://www.sony.net/Products/SC-HP/cx_news/vol34/featuring1.html
  • 6. Sony DRAM Roadmap #2 http://www.sony.net/Products/SC-HP/cx_news/vol34/featuring1.html Japanese METI roadmap
  • 7. www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/roadma pping Panasonic Mobile Communications Roadmap http://panasonic.co.jp/pmc/company/en/cc_0005.html
  • 8. Display technology roadmap www.modilis.com/roadmap.htm Technology convergence roadmap “Untangling the future”, Paul Saffo, Business2.0, June 2002, www.business2.com
  • 9. Particle physics roadmap “Particle physics – roadmap to the future”, F. Giman, SLAC Summer Institute on Particle Physics, Aug. 2-13 2004. Roadmapping: a general-purpose ‘strategic lens’ ’ Roadmap framework (Supports integrated and aligned strategic and innovation planning) Functional perspectives (Roadmap architecture) Typical viewpoints Commercial & strategic perspectives Design, development & production perspectives Past Market Short-term Medium-term Long-term Time Knowledge types When? Information types Vision Route(s) forward Why? Business Drivers Strategy Needs Pull Product What? Service Form Function Performance System Push Technology & research perspectives Technology How? Science Resources Key questions: 2) Where are we now? 3) How can we get there? 1) Where do we want to go? Solutions Capabilities Resources
  • 10. “Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?” – Alice "That depends a good deal on where you want to get to” – Cheshire Cat "I don't much care where” – Alice "Then it doesn't matter which way you go” – Cheshire Cat Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland, 1865 Fundamental questions (When?) Time a) Why do we need to act? ? ? ? b) What should we do? ? ? ? c) How can we do it? ? ? ? 3) How can we get there? 1) Where do we want to go? 2) Where are we now?
  • 11. Technology roadmapping Two extremes 1. Market ‘pull’ ’ 2. Technology ‘push’ ’ - How to reach a goal? • • • • • • Planning Market focus Assumes product market opportunity Deterministic Convergent Customer driven - What opportunities could arise? • • • • Technology focus Looking for opportunities Open ended Divergent Two styles of technology roadmapping • Intensive - Short term attack strategy • Prompted by new business start, major strategic change or new competitive threat • Multidiscipline team meet several times to “complete” roadmap (and make strategic decisions) • Part of the Business Fabric - Culture driven • Develop and maintain roadmaps as part of periodic team meetings • Review roadmaps at periodic strategy checks and updates • Use roadmaps to monitor and run ongoing business Source: Richard Albright ex-Lucent Technologies
  • 12. Uncertainty / risk of prediction / investment Planning horizon Long term Medium term Short term New (?): - Markets - Products - Technologies - Capabilities - Organisational structures - Distribution channels - Competition Operations Innovation What to manufacture? How many of each model? What materials to order? Strategy Which products? Which markets? What cost? Time Which technologies? qualitative focus quantitative focus Roadmaps provide a consistent framework throughout the strategic planning / innovation process Process funnel (e.g. strategy, new product development) Market-Technology, Summary-Detail Iteration Requirements fluid Concepts fuzzy Many unknowns Many options Many assumptions Few constraints Scenarios Effort Time Requirements clear, stable Concepts clear, stable Fewer unknowns, risks understood Fewer options, greater constraints Year 1982 Tuning ? ? ? ? Selectivity ? IC technology Display ? ? ? ? ? 1984 1985 1986 Push button - Synthesizers Linear 1987 1988 Data ? ? Vehicular LAN 1u CMOS Fluorescence Single wire ? ? ? ? RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 Stereo Plus: Plus: Scan PRODUCTS Personal paging Seek Divergent process Convergent process Explore Plan Shape Implement Glass fibre 500 kHz bandwidth RECEIVER 1 ? 1991 Maps 3u CMOS Liquid crystal Digital modulation ? 1990 Voice actuated Digital signal processors Paging 5u CMOS LEDs 1989 Touch pad - Synthesizers SAWs Stereo Subcarrier function ? ? 1983 Push button Ceramic resonators NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION Plus: A NEW SERVICE Stock market Road information Remote amplifiers Remote controls Super Hi Fi Local maps
  • 13. Roadmapping & decision support tools STEEPI Porter’s ’ Five Forces (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, Infrastructural Trends & Drivers) SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) Foresight Technology Intelligence Scenario t Innovation System Structure (taxonomy) Scaleable (hierarchy) Market Business Product Service System Technology Resources Portfolio Linking grids Valuation / Balanced scorecard Management tool resources Matrix tools www2.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/t_cat/index.htm Decision support www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/dstools/ Design management www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/research/dmg/tools/ New product development www.npd-solutions.com/bok.html#anchor2114450) Value based management www.valuebasedmanagement.net Innovation management www.managing-innovation.com Change management www.change-management-toolbook.com/mod/book/view.php?id=74 Continuous improvement www.systems2win.com Visualisation methods www.roxanneoconnell.com/VIZ/index.html Visualisation methods www.visual-literacy.org/periodic_table/periodic_table.html
  • 14. Software for technology roadmapping www.sopheon.com Accolade Roadmapping www.sharpcloud.com www.lets-focus.com Technology roadmapping process Benefits • Facilitate development and integration of new technology • Support for strategy and planning processes • Identify new business opportunities for exploiting technology • Provide top level information on the technological direction • Support communication and co-operation • Identify gaps in market and technical knowledge • Support sourcing, resource allocation, risk management and exploitation decisions
  • 15. Useful references & resources Willyard and McClees (1987), ‘Motorola's Technology Roadmap process’, Research Management, Vol 30, No 5, pp13-19 ’ Groenveld (1997) ‘Roadmapping integrates business and technology’, Research Technology Management, Vol 40, No. 5, pp. 48-55 ’ EIRMA (1997) ‘Technology Roadmapping - delivering business vision’, Working Group Report No 52, European Industrial Research ’ Management Association, www.eirma.org de Laat and McKibbin (2003), ‘The effectiveness of technology road mapping - building a strategic vision’, Technopolis, Dutch ’ Ministry of Economic Affairs. Special journal editions on roadmapping (multiple company cases and academic perspectives): • Research Technology Management, Part 1 - Vol. 42, No. 2, March 2003; Part 2 - Vol. 47, No. 2, 2004 (5 papers, including experience from Domino Printing Sciences, General Motors, Lucent Technologies, Motorola, Roche, Rockwell Automation and Royal Mail) • Technology Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 71, No. 1-2 , 2004, nine papers • International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, Vol. 9, No. 2, 2007, six papers, including Philips & Siemens Guidance notes: • Industry Canada: ‘Technology roadmapping in Canada: A development guide’ & ‘Evaluating technology roadmaps - a framework ’ for monitoring and measuring results’, http://www.ic.gr.ca/eic/site/trm-crt.nsf/eng/home ’ • US Department of Energy guide to applying science and technology roadmapping in environmental management (Draft), DoE-EM50, July 2000, http://emi-web.inel.gov/roadmap/guide.pdf www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/research/ctm/trm Questions?
  • 16. ‘Fast-start’ workshop methods and T-Plan approach Roadmapping challenges 50 Response (%) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Starting up the TRM process Developing a robust TRM process Roll-out of the TRM process Keeping the TRM process 'alive' on an ongoing basis Other Source: CTM survey, 1999
  • 17. Roadmapping applications (250+) Sector / product Aims • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • - Industrial coding (x3) Postal services (x10) Security / access systems Labelling software Surface coatings Medical packaging (x2) Automotive sub-systems Power transmission Railway infrastructure (x3) National infrastructure Building controls Road transport (x2) Technical consulting (x15) Automotive / Aerospace Academic (x3) Biochemicals Satellite navigation Food processing (x5) Pneumatic systems Emerging technologies Automotive (x2) Retail Construction Chemicals Defence Packaging (x4) Packaging Energy distribution (x2) Defence Satellites Food processing Sustainable development Personal Packaging (x2) Energy systems Aerospace Metrology Packaging Biofuels Consulting (x4) Computational science Electronic displays Printing Cognitive science Product / technology planning Integration of R&D into business; business planning Product / technology planning Product / technology planning New product development process Business reconfiguration Service development & planning Business opportunities of new technology Capital investment planning and technology insertion Research programme planning New product / service opportunity; business reconfiguration Defining the national research agenda for the sector New product / service development, strategy Corporate co-operation and synergy Strategic planning Research priorities / network development Research priorities / network development Research priorities / network development Innovation strategy Research priorities Innovation opportunities Business and product strategy Global production strategy Research priorities Technology valuation Technology development & exploitation, innovation, strategy Sector level trends Asset management strategy / technology strategy Development of roadmapping system Innovation opportunities & synergy Product / technology planning Regional network development (technology transfer & skills) Life planning Breakthrough cost reduction and innovation strategy R&D strategy & system development Manufacturing technology strategy development Research prioritisation Sector trends and priorities Regional research and policy prioritisation Regional network development, research and infrastructure prioritisation Research prioritisation Technology strategy Development of roadmapping system Identification of application and innovation opportunities Variety of sectors, company sizes and types, products and services and technologies Variety of strategic business goals and contexts S-Plan and T-Plan ‘fast-start’ workshop methods ’ Level Portfolio Landscape 1a 1c Option 1b Time Topic 2 S-Plan T-Plan
  • 18. 3 Ps People to provide knowledge experience and insight Paper to organise process and capture knowledge Post-it notes and other stationery to facilitate knowledge sharing Planning (customisation checklist) • Context: focus, scope, aims and resources • Roadmap architecture • Process, including other tools • Participants • Workshop scheduling • Integration: systems, tools, processes & information • Preparatory work
  • 19. Roadmapping design: an iterative collaborative process Focus, scope, aims Plan Business need Domain knowledge dialogue Business owner Architecture TRM process owner Process Typical S-Plan workshop
  • 20. Aligning central R&D with business innovation in global packaging firm BU 1 (Europe Region 1, Category A) BU General BU 3 manager (USA, Category B) BU General manager BU 4 (USA, Category C) BU General manager Central Research Group (Europe) BU General manager BU 2 (Europe Region 2, Category C) Interface managers BU General manager Roadmapping used to align R&D portfolio with business unit innovation strategy BU 5 (Europe Region 2, Category A) T-Plan aims • To support the start-up of company-specific TRM processes • To establish key linkages between technology resources and business drivers • To identify important gaps in market, product and technology intelligence • To develop a ‘first-cut’ technology roadmap • To support technology strategy and planning initiatives in the firm • To support communication between technical and commercial functions
  • 21. T-Plan reference process Workshop 1 Market • Performance dimensions • Market / business drivers • Prioritisation • SWOT • Gaps • Setting up the process Workshop 2 Product • Product feature concepts • Grouping • Impact ranking • Product strategy • Gaps Workshop 3 Technology Workshop 4 Roadmapping • Technology solutions • Grouping • Impact ranking • Gaps • Linking technology resources to future market opportunities • Gaps • Following on from the process • Managing the process T-Plan guide Japanese German Chinese (Modern) Spanish Chinese (Traditional)
  • 22. Roadmap structuring and prioritisation Technology Roadmap time Technology / Resources Technology solutions Product / Service / Production Product features Product features Business / Market drivers Business / Market Step 1 Step 4 Step 2 Step 3 Analysis Grids Softco case example • Small (25 staff) software firm • Used T-Plan to explore the development of a new niche software product aimed at the Pharmaceuticals sector
  • 23. Example Market-Product grid (Softco) Market Softco Ranking: 5 7 5 7 9 6 10 =1 = -1 Σ Cell scores x Driver priority Normalised: max score = 10 4.7 4.2 1.1 8.7 8.3 4.9 4. Globalisation 3. Cost of trial B. No. 1 2. Validated software A. Reusability 4.5 8. Future proof 4.8 7. Connectivity 5.5 5. Leading edge 1. Security Product Feature Concepts 6. Ease of use Softco 6 7 CRO 2 4 Major Pharmaceutical 1 8 1 year after release 6 2 D. Motivation of staff 7 10 E. Improving bottom line 10 10 C. Time to market Market / Business Drivers 9 9 1. Time to market of drug Major Pharmaceutical: CRO: 2. Integrity of trial Prioritisation: (scale of 10) * 3. Compliance 4. Services 5.0 4.1 3.8 5. Data management 10.0 10.0 3.0 9.6 9.9 9.5 5.9 5.8 2.5 8. Flexible implementation 6.8 7.5 10.0 9. Softco requirements 0.7 0.8 2.7 3.2 4.2 5.2 6. Printing ** 7. Global solution 10. User friendly * 1 for difficulty, 2 for size ** Payback later 0.7 0.8 2.7 3.2 4.2 5.2 Ranking: =1 = -1 Σ Cell scores x Driver priority Normalised: max score = 10 CRO Softco 6.8 7.5 10.0 Major Pharmaceutical 5.9 5.8 2.5 10. User friendly 9.6 9.9 9.5 9. Softco requirements 10.0 10.0 3.0 8. Flexible implementation 5.0 4.1 3.8 6. Printing * 8.7 8.3 4.9 5. Data management Technology Areas 1. Security Product Feature Concepts * 4.7 4.2 1.1 3. Compliance 5.5 4.8 4.5 4. Services Major Pharmaceutical: CRO: Sofco 2. Validated software * Prioritisation: - from Grid 1 (scale of 10) 7. Global solution Example Product-Technology grid (Softco) 1. Alliances 7.8 7.6 7.2 2. System architecture 10.0 10.0 10.0 3. Design 7.1 7.2 7.1 4. ‘Soft’ technologies ’ 6.9 6.8 6.5 5. Output technologies 6.4 6.4 6.3 8.6 8.4 7.6 8.3 8.2 7.5 6. Securing technologies 7. Core technologies (re-use) ** * must have ** -ve re-use past, + re-use future
  • 24. Example first-cut roadmap (Softco) Year 0 1. Security Year 1 Phase 1 Market / Business Competitor threat Time out security levels User rights Legislation? Digitally signed labels TA6 Phase 3 Year 2 Phase 2 Phase 4 Phase 5 Year 3 Version 1 release Price: £10 -15K/seat Competitor threat? Market launch Audit trail Digital signatured audit trail TA6 Watermarked forms & reports Product Features TA5 TA6 2.Validated Software 3. Compliance Form TA5 printing Validated protocol design module Multi-language database TA7 6. Printing Labelling Printer XML data libraries independent format TA2 7. Global Solution TA2 Software protection User documentation 2. Sys. Arch. 3. Design 4. ‘Soft’ Tech. ’ 5. Output Tech. Legal expertise Web enabled User-docs Far East TA1 XML data WAP language import / export (Far East) TA1 modules for UI Multiple platform support Database partners (harmonised phrases & legislation) CH / JAVA / CORBA component architecture A Platform inde- Modular design spec. pendent design UML / OOD Develop Validatable Build Dev. Mngmnt Test eChem sales Team team GNP procedures from plan tech. model (FDA) source stability leader Report generation Protocol design wizards Enhanced network of contacts Appoint distributors outside UK Internet compatible On-line tutorials ERP link TCP / IP CGI / ISAPI ISO 9000 TickIT Internet updates 24 hour support Enhanced development team stability Enhanced report generation Write once technology 6. Securing Tech. Scanning & storage of hand-written forms Rapid & Pipe ++ 7. Core Tech. Other Resources TA1 TA2 10. User Friendly Network of contacts Global support Label set libraries Windows platform TA2 support Customisable Domain expert partner Other bar- TA7 code types Inter-site User-docs EU lang Email security (EU lang) modules notifications TA1 for UI UNICODE 9. Company Requirements 1. Alliances Label design module User group & conference Graphic User formatrepresentation ting tool of R&S phrases for forms Billing & inventory management Statistical analysis Secure archiving Windows Code 39 & 128 Blinded printers: PDF 417 labels PS / PCLS / PDF barcodes TA7 Enhanced randomisation Upgrade path for existing users Multi-level training 8. Flexible Implementation Technology Areas Advanced automation 4. Services 5. Data Management Validated Ver. 330 Validated Ver. 2 Validated Ver. 1 Protocol Randomised design module design package Database escrow TA6 Biometric passwords Raise £ x million Recruitment software & management TAx = link to Technology Area x New building Thank you Questions?