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Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con
- 1. Results for 3rd Quarter 2009Analyst Teleconference
- 2. Key Messages
- 4. Global Crude Differentials $/bbl Last 4 Quarters Brent Wave Adjusted Figuresfor Iran Heavy
- 5. 3rd Q Product Ratios (bbl/bbl Brent) 2009 Price Ratios to Brent
- 6. Turkish Market versus Tüpraş ( 9M - Thousand Tons)
- 9. 9M Products Yields 2008 2009 Light Distillate Light Distillate Black Products Black Products Other White Middle Distillate Middle Distillate Other White White Product 73.2% Production : 11.9 mn ton White Product 68.2 % Production : 17.9 mn ton
- 11. ExportVolumes FullYear (MillionTons) 9 Month (KTons)
- 12. Production – Import - Sales Balance / 9M (million ton) 2009 2008 12
- 14. 9M Trading Activities Finished Products Gasoil imports up 20% LPG & Jet imported to make up shortfall Intermediates HVGO & ASRFO were imported to keep the hydrocrackers running full capacity. Naphthaimportedtoproducegasoline
- 15. Opet Results EBITDA $191 Million Network Opet: 795, Sunpet: 544, Total 1,339 Terminal Capacity 1,128,500m3. * Tüpraş’s 40% share
- 17. Profitability Indicators , January-September
- 19. FX Risk Exposure (30 September 2009 ) Million $ -128 SoleTüpraş -90 Million $
- 20. IncomeStatement
- 21. Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Assets
- 22. Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Liabilities
- 23. 3rd Quarter Operating Profit and Inventory Effect 23
- 24. Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.
Editor's Notes
- Slide 2: Key MessagesThe benchmark margins got even worse in the 3rd quarter, down to 1.6 dollars per barrel. Tupras continued to maintain a strong premiumOn the demand side, we have yet to see a pick up in demand for refined products. We are now expecting it to occur in the 2nd quarter of 2010.Tüpraş strategy has not changed from the previous quarter. One again we have reduced volumes, improved yields, and focused on the domestic market. On the coker, we are very close to announcing a prime contractor for the project.
- Slide 4: Crude DifferentialsCrude differentials have continued to disappoint, even though underlying crude prices are rising.For the quarter, Ural crude was only 30 cents cheaper than Brent. We can only repeat here what we have said before, only the return of OPEC’s heavy crudes will rectify this situation.
- Slide 5: 3rd Q Product RatiosDepressed product demand continued to weigh on product price ratios. Ratios for gasoline were relatively strong, but middle distillates continued their weakness in the face of high stock levels and low demand particularly in jet fuel.Fuel oil continued its year long climb.
- Slide 6 Turkish Market versus TüpraşTupras sales were in line with or better than the changes in market demand, with the exception of 1000 ppm diesel.In the case of the 1000 ppm diesel, the loss of market share is the result of Tupras focusing on profitability rather than volume.
- Slide 8 Production, Ton*0003rd quarter production volumes continued the trend of the previous quarter. Volumes were down for all products but most strikingly for fuel oil, down by ¾ s.
- Slide 9: 9M Products Yields The benefit from the reduced volumes can be seen on this slide. Black product yields shrunk to under 26 %, down from more than 31% a year ago. Middle distillates yields were up about 2% and light distillates 3% whilst asphalt yields increased more than 3 %.
- Slide 10: Domestic SalesDomestic sales for the quarter were down, year on year, due to high sulphur diesel and black products. Sales of Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel were up thanks to a growing car park of diesel cars, and Jet Fuel sales increased thanks to Turkish Airlines.
- Slide 11: Export VolumesOnce again exports were down significantly, with Fuel Oil down over a million tons for the period.
- Slide 12: Production – Import - Sales Balance A good way of understanding the overall changes in our business model is the graph on this slide.Supply shifts more toward import and away from production, whilst sales shift from export to domestic. Imports for the period doubled, whilst exports fell by a half.
- Slide 13: Net Refining MarginsIn a break with previous releases, we have decided to publish net refinery margins, as they are more indicative of overall company performance.Net margins for the quarter were $1.59 dollars per barrel, down from $6.72 dollars for the same period last year.
- Slide 14: 9M Trading ActivitiesImports of diesel and LPG were up year on year.565,000 tons of Jet fuel was imported, compared to zero in the same period last year.In addition to imports of atmospheric straight run fuel oil and HVGO, naphtha was also imported for conversion into gasoline. .
- Slide 15: OpetOpet profitability suffered from the EMRA price cap in the 3rd quarter. Net profit for the quarter came in at just 13.3 million dollars. As previously indicated, we believe that adjustments to the business model will result in better performance over the next few quarters.Once again they increased market share, most particularly in gasoline.
- Slide 18: Financial Highlights (mn $)The most important message on this slide is the comparison of net profit between 9 months 2009 and the full year results for 2008. We have improved on last year’s profits.Whilst the 4th quarter is traditionally a weak quarter, we should still be in a position to improve of normal dividend from last year.Return on Average Equity is back up to a healthy 23%
- Slide 19: FX Risk Exposure Our FX exposure as of the end of the period was a negative 128 million dollars, or 90 million excluding subsidiaries.