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Energy and climate change facts and trends to 2050

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  • 1. Energy and climate changeFacts andtrendsto2050
  • 2. IntroductionThis publication provides an overview of key facts and societal challenges related to economic development, future energydemand and the impact that demand could have on the climate system. It forms part of the work program of the WBCSD’sEnergy and Climate Council Project and provides a platform for future discussion. This will help further elaborate a businessresponse to the challenges identified in this paper, which will require additional research and consultation.We cannot know exactly how the world will develop over the next half century, but the scenarios used here fit with theUnited Nations (UN) development goals of poverty reduction and improved living standards in the developing world.Achieving these goals will require an increase in energy consumption.Although we recognize that a range of human activities have an impact on greenhouse gas emissions and that many of thesepractices will have to change, the focus of this publication is on the world’s use of energy and its related impacts.We have used existing data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the International Energy Agency(IEA) and WBCSD studies. We present it here in a simplified and condensed form to stimulate forward thinking and discussionaround the issues facing us as we begin to deal with climate change. Projections and examples based on particular globalemission levels and eventual CO2 concentrations in our atmosphere are only set out to illustrate the scale of the challenge.2050
  • 3. 20060010001200040080020001920-1930sPrimaryenergy EJOECD countriesNon-OECD countriesLowHighCoal economyNew renewables suchas wind and solarThe transition isuncertainDevelopment of oil,natural gas and largescale hydro,introduction ofnuclear2050The issue at a glance . . .Growth, development and energy demandEnergy is the fuel for growth, an essential requirement for economicand social development. By 2050, energy demand could double ortriple as population rises and developing countries expand theireconomies and overcome poverty. Transitions in our energyinfrastructure will be needed, akin to those of the last 100 years.Today, as we face up to climate change as a major environmentalthreat, the way forward becomes less certain.Energy use and climate impactsOver the last century the amount of carbon dioxide in our atmospherehas risen, driven in large part by our usage of fossil fuels, but also byother factors that are related to rising population and increasingconsumption, such as land use change. Coincident with this rise hasbeen an increase in the global average temperature, up by nearly adegree Celsius. If these trends continue, global temperatures could riseby a further one to four degrees by the end of the 21st century,potentially leading to disruptive climate change in many places. Bystarting to manage our carbon dioxide emissions now, we may be ableto limit the effects of climate change to levels that we can adapt to.The dynamics of technological changeMany advocate an accelerated change in our energy infrastructure,away from fossil fuels, as the only solution to the threat of climatechange. But it is not at all clear which technologies or policyframeworks might provide the impetus for change. Such transitions,which operate at a global level, take time to implement. Very largesystems such as transport and energy infrastructures can take up to acentury to develop fully.Reshaping our energy futureBy 2050, global carbon emissions would need to be at levels similar to2000, but also trending downward, in contrast to a sharply risingdemand for energy over the same period. No single solution will deliverthis change, rather we need a mix of options which focus on usingenergy more efficiently and lowering its carbon intensity. Changes insupply and demand can help us shift to a truly sustainable energy path.While change takes time, starting the process now and laying foundationsfor the future are matters of urgency, and business has a key role to play.
  • 4. 01000200030004000600050007000900080002000 2050Base case Low poverty Prosperous worldDeveloped (GDP > USD12,000)Primary energyEmerging (GDP < USD12,000)Developing (GDP < USD5,000)Poorest (GDP < USD1,500)DevelopedPoorestEmergingDevelopingFigure 1: Rising population and increasing livingstandards lead to a substantial rise in energy demand.Source:WBCSDadaptationofIEA2003United Nations Millennium Declaration“We will spare no effort to free our fellow men, women andchildren from the abject and dehumanizing conditions ofextreme poverty, to which more than a billion of them arecurrently subjected.”8thplenary meeting, September 2000[[In 2000, only one in six of us on thisplanet had access to the energyrequired to provide us with the highliving standards enjoyed in developedcountries. Yet these one billion peopleconsumed over 50% of the world’senergy supply. By contrast, the onebillion poorest people used only 4%.None of us finds poverty acceptable, sothe world has set itself various goals toeradicate poverty and raise livingstandards. These goals require energy,the driver of modern living standards.Increased access to modern energyservices such as electricity is a decisivefactor in escaping the poverty trap; itvastly enhances opportunities forindustrial development and improveshealth and education.Figure 1 shows how energy demandincreases as population grows,development needs are met and livingstandards rise. It contrasts theoutcome of “business as usual” withtwo development scenarios.> By 2050, world population couldrise to around 9 billion (UN 2002).With no change in the globaldevelopment profile, another twoto three billion people would beliving in poverty (base case).> Two new development profiles areillustrated. Both reflect the UN goalsto eliminate extreme poverty. Eachshows increasing levels ofdevelopment from the status quo,either to a “low poverty” world orto a “prosperous world”.> The pressures of population growthand the goals to raise livingstandards combine to set us aformidable energy challenge forthe 21stcentury. Shifting thedevelopment profile will requireconsiderable investment withenergy demand rising at least two-or three-fold from 2000.2Primaryenergymorethandoublescomparedto2000Primaryenergymorethantriplescomparedto2000Primary energyDeveloped (GDP per capita > USD 12,000)Emerging (GDP per capita < USD 12,000)Developing (GDP per capita < USD 5,000)Poorest (GDP per capita < USD 1,500)Growth, development andenergy demand
  • 5. Above USD3,000 per capita GDP (1995 PPP), energydemand explodes as industrialization and personalmobility take off.From USD15,000, demand grows more slowly as themain burst of industrialization is complete and servicesbegin to dominate.Beyond USD25,000, economic growth can continuewithout significant energy increases, but the absolutelevel varies widely depending on national circumstances.Energy, the fuel for growthGrowth, development and energy demandUSA20000100005000AustraliaCanadaRussiaGermanyUKJapanPolandSouth AfricaFranceVenezuelaChinaBrazilIndonesiaOECDNon-OECDWorldOther sectorPakistanIndiaNigeriaMozambiqueNon-road transportRoad transportManufacturingEnergy industriesHeat and powerNuclear02004006008001000Diversity of fuel sourcesPower generation emissionsgCO2/kWhMozambique (H)South Africa (C)Brazil (H)Indonesia (G, O, C, H)Japan (G, N, C, H)Canada (H, C, G, N)Russia (G, C, H, N)India (C, H)Australia (C, G)China (C, H)Iceland (H, Ge)France (N, H)Poland (C, G)Venezuela (H, G)Netherlands (G, C)Pakistan (G, H)New Zealand (H, G, Ge)USA (C, G, N)Germany (C, G, N)Denmark (G, C, W)UK (G, N, C)Nigeria (O, G, H)CoalOilGas (CCGT)GeothermalHydroWind>>>>Energy use, development and CO2 emissionsCO2 emissions vary widely at all levels of development. Differences in otherwise similar economies depend on factors suchas geography, types of domestic energy available, public acceptance of energy sources and mobility options, including thedevelopment of mass transportation.1Figure 4: CO2 intensity ofvarious types of powergeneration and the currentintensity in a range of countries(year 2000 data, electricity andheat generation including autoproducers). Fuel sources foreach country are ranked inorder of importance, with thosecontributing less than 10% notidentified.Source: WBCSD adaptation of IEA 2003Source: WBCSD adaptation ofIEA 2003 and CIA 2004Figure 3: Breakdown by sector of CO2emissions on a per capita basis across arange of countries and for the world asa whole, then split OECD/non-OECD.Emissionsbysector,kgCO2percapitaperyear(2001)Figure 2: Income vs. energy use in 2000, with 1970-2000 trends forKorea, China and Malaysia.050100150200250300350400$0Energyuse(2000),GJpercapitaGDP per capita (2000), in USD (1995) ppp10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000RussiaCanadaJapanMexicoBrazilUSAKorea 1970-2000China 1970-2000Malaysia 1970-2000EU countriesSelected countries3Other sectorsNon-road transportRoad transportManufacturingEnergy industriesHeat and powerSource:WBCSDadaptationofIEA2003
  • 6. 415001000500REREREOver the last century theamount of carbon dioxide inour atmosphere has risen,driven in large part by our usage offossil fuels, but also by other factorsthat are related to rising populationand increasing consumption, such asland use change. Although there isstill debate as to the magnitude, thereis solid evidence that our world iswarming. The bulk of the scientificcommunity, led by the IPCC and theUnited States National Academy ofSciences, has now linked these twophenomena in a likely cause-effectrelationship.The IPCC has created a number ofdevelopment storylines (see Glossaryfor a more detailed description of this)CoalOilBiomassRenewablesFigure 5: The IPCC scenarios show variousoptions for energy use and fuel mix in 2050,dependent on growth and developmentassumptions and technological change in thecoming years.-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.30.40.50.6050100150200250300350400Temperature variation (w.r.t. 1961-90)Atmospheric CO2 concentrationSmoothed variation1860 to 2002AtmosphericCO2,ppmDifference(°C)from1961-1990averageOver the last century we have seen a risein the atmospheric concentration ofcarbon dioxide from 280 ppm to some370 ppm. Coincident with this rise hasbeen an increase in global averagetemperature, up by nearly 1°C.Projections show that if this trendcontinues, global temperatures could riseby a further one to four degrees by theend of the 21stcentury (see Figure 7).Source:IPCC2001bFigure 6: Variation in atmospheric CO2 andglobal temperature since 1860.Source:HadleyCentreandCDIACfor the 21stcentury to illustrate themagnitude of the changes we maybe inducing in the climate. Forillustrative purposes, only two ofthese have been used in thispublication. They are aligned withanticipated global population growthand the changes we might expect astoday’s developing countries strive toend poverty and other nationsachieve significant rises in livingstandards for their people (asillustrated in Section 1).The higher energy use storyline (IPCCA1B) describes a future world of veryrapid economic growth and the rapidintroduction of new and moreefficient technologies. In this world,regional average income per capitaconverges such that the currentdistinctions between “poor” and“rich” countries eventually dissolve.The lower energy use storyline (IPCCB2) represents an intermediate levelof economic growth with anemphasis on local solutions. In thisworld, there is less rapid but morediverse technological change with anemphasis on environmentalprotection. The primary energy useand fuel mix for the two storylines,based on the Asian Pacific IntegratedModel (AIM, also see Glossary)scenarios for each, are shown.Changes in our atmosphere are already underway!NuclearPrimaryenergy,EJperyear20002050B2 A1BAIM scenariosBiomassRenew.Nucl.Natural gasEnergy use andclimate impacts
  • 7. Energy use and climate impacts1520255102000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21001000ppm550ppm450ppm1980Scenario A1B emissions rangeScenario B2 emissions range450 ppm550 ppm1000 ppmºCCarbon emissions, Gt C/year Temperature rise Impacts of global temperature riseRisks tomanyUnique andthreatenedsystemsRisks tosomeLargeincreaseExtremeclimateeventsIncreaseHigherLarge-scalehigh-impacteventsVery low19906 -5 -4 -1 -0 -3 -2 -210021002100230023002300The yardstick typically used to approach this question is the eventual concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, or stabilizationlevel. Up to the time of the industrial revolution this remained at 280 ppm. The IPCC scenarios lead to CO2 concentrationscontinually rising during the 21stcentury with no stabilization below the range 700 to 1000 ppm.Such levels of CO2 are, according to the IPCC, likely to lead to very damaging impacts. A temperature rise of some 2-4°C couldbring more extreme climate events, threaten sensitive eco-systems such as coral reefs and lead to rises in sea level. In the 4-6°Crange we may also see structural alterations to our weather patterns, possibly led by changes in important ocean currents suchas the Gulf Stream.A level of stabilization of less than 500 ppm will be very difficult to achieve, as it requires a sharp downward turn in emissionsbefore 2020. Stabilization at a somewhat higher level would be more achievable as it allows a timeframe in which significantchange in our energy infrastructure could take place.Inertia is an inherent characteristic of the climate system, with CO2 concentration, temperature and sea level continuing to rise forhundreds of years after emissions have been reduced. Thus some impacts of man-made climate change may be slow to appear.Is there an acceptable limit for CO2 emissions?2Figure 7: Emissions scenarios to 2100, together with potentialglobal temperature rise and associated climate impacts.Source:IPCC2001aAdapting to climate changeThe impact on our climate could be substantial even at an achievable stabilizationlevel, so adaptation to climate change will have to play a part of any futurestrategy. Impacts will vary from region to region; much of the detail is uncertain.We may have to deal with impacts on health from the spread of tropical diseases,regional shortages of water due to changing monsoon patterns and disruption toagriculture from possible shifts in growing seasons. The combined economic andsocial impacts of these changes could be large. Measures might include:> Flood defences in low-lying areas, ranging from Florida to Bangladesh> Refugee planning for island states such as the Maldives> Improved water management (e.g. aqueducts) as rainfall patterns changeEmission profiles which result in 450, 550and 1000 ppm long-term CO2 stabilizationlevels are shown, together with the range ofcarbon emissions for the A1B and B2development scenarios.Potential global temperature rises can be linkedwith an increasing risk of severe climate impacts.By 2100, global average temperaturesmay have risen by 2-4°C for A1B/B2,higher even than the 1000 ppm case.By 2300, the 1000 ppm world could seea temperature rise of up to 6°C.5
  • 8. 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20201 millionproduced16 millionproduced21.5 millionproducedFirstprototypeFirstconceptProduction at1000 cars/monthProduction endsin Germany1 million perannum producedLast vehicleson the roadin the EUProduction endsin MexicoLast vehicleson the road?Figure 10: The original VW Beetle will have been with us for nearly 100 years when the last vehicles leave the road.Figure 9: Typical infrastructure lifetimes, which are a factor in the rate at which newtechnologies enter the economy.Many advocate that a rapidchange in our energyinfrastructure is the onlysolution to the threat of climatechange. Realistically, however, majortransitions at the global level will taketime to implement. The speed withwhich new technologies diffusedepends on many factors:> Size and lifetime matter. Very largesystems such as transport and energyinfrastructures can take up to acentury to develop fully. Generally,the rate of technological change isclosely related to the lifetime of therelevant capital stock and equipment,as illustrated in Figure 9.> Cost is also a factor that can impedechange. Emerging and futuretechnologies, including newrenewables, will see widespreadtake-up only when they cancompete with existing technologies.However, an entirely new valueproposition (e.g. MP3 player vs.much cheaper cassette tape) canherald a period of rapid changewhich then leads to cost reduction.> Regional boundaries may limitchange. New technologies indeveloped countries may arrive,mature and even decline before theirwidespread adoption in developingregions. The VW Beetle continued as amainstream vehicle in many countrieslong after it disappeared from theroads in Europe and the USA.1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20001943: Thomas Watson - Chairman,IBM“I think there is a world market for maybe six computers.”1961:First paper on packet-switching theory1969:ARPANET commission tworking1972:@ first use1983: Switch-over to TCP/IP1990: Number of hosts exceeds 100,0001991: www convention adopted1946:ENIAC unveiled1964:IBM 3601972:Xerox GUI and mouse1982:IBM PC2000: Cheap high speedcomputingDot.com boomexplosive growthof the internet,acceptance asan everyday partof life.ed by DoD for research intoThe Internet revolution that we are experiencing today is the result of thedevelopment and convergence of various technologies. The builders of ENIACdidn’t plan for a computer in every home and the first network pioneers werefocused on linking universities and military sites, not doing grocery shopping on-line. Even a few years after the launch of the PC, many saw its uptake in the homeas limited.Although very different in nature, there are many parallels to this in the energy andtransport revolution. The oil industry boomed due to vehicle development andfuel availability was accelerated by the resulting consumer demand for cars. Bothhave added enormous value to our society; yet at the outset a car or computer inevery home was seen as either unnecessary or prohibitive from a cost perspective.Both transformations are measured in decades, in contrast to our perception thatchange can happen overnight.Figure 8: Technology convergence supported the 40-year development of the Internet.How fast can change happen?6Infrastructure Expected lifetime, yearsHydro station 75 ++Building 45 +++Coal station 45 +Infrastructure Expected lifetime, yearsNuclear station 30-60Gas turbine 25 +Motor vehicle 12-20The dynamics oftechnological change
  • 9. The dynamics of technological change050010001500200025002000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Total vehicles, millions3Case 1: The rapid introduction of zero carbon road transport technologyLimiting CO2 emissions from transport to sustainable levels is an important goalin addressing climate change. As Mobility 2030 (WBCSD 2004) points out, “evenunder optimum circumstances, achieving this goal will take longer (probablyquite a bit longer) than two or three decades”.Take the case of light duty vehicles (LDVs), which today represent around half ofthe transport sector’s CO2 emissions. In 2000 there were 750 million suchvehicles in use with this number growing by 2% per year. To achieve significantCO2 reductions from transport, these vehicles would have to be replaced withnew advanced technology vehicles. However, the typical life of a car is some12-20 years and also, the need to refit fuelling stations with lower carbon fuelscould limit the take-up of new vehicles.The illustration on the right shows that even if large-scale deployment of vehicles thatemit no CO2 at all could start relatively early and progress at a rapid rate, it would notbe until 2040 that the total number of traditional vehicles in use begins to decline.This means that GHG emissions from all LDVs would not begin to decline until thattime, unless emissions for traditional vehicles decline significantly (for a detailedassessment on the carbon impact of specific vehicle technologies, see WBCSD 2004).Case 2: The immediate deployment of carbon neutral technologiesin the power sectorThe IEA reference scenario (World Energy Outlook 2002) projects that to meetglobal demand for electricity the world’s generating capacity will need todouble from the year 1999 to 2030 (from 3500 to around 7000 GW).The scenario further assumes that we will build 1400 GW of coal capacity and2000 GW of natural gas capacity (both to replace retired facilities and to meetnew requirements). This would see CO2 emissions from the power sector nearlydouble over this time period.But what if all new coal fired power plants utilized carbon capture and storageor nuclear/renewable capacity was built instead? Would that be sufficient forpower sector emissions to start declining? At best, we could stabilize emissionsfrom the power sector with these technologies. The 45+ year lifespan of existingand planned facilities gives us a considerable legacy through to 2030 andbeyond.Implementing such a plan would also be difficult for many developing countriesthat see abundant local coal and cheap mature generating technology as anideal response to growing energy demand.020004000600080001999 2010 2020 20301000080009000CO2emissions,MtperyearFigure 12: Impact of carbon-neutral technologieson power sector CO2 emissions.CO2 emissions from the powersector will still not start todecline before 2030 even if . . .How difficult is it?Change on a global scale is a massive undertaking. Even with challenging (and possibly unrealistic) growth assumptionsand early deployment of the best new technologies, which arguably are not ready for large-scale use, it still proves difficultto hold emissions at current levels, let alone begin to see them decline.The two case studies below illustrate this process.Figure 11: An illustration of the rapid developmentand deployment of zero carbon vehicles.Annual total vehicle growth of 2% per year.Annual vehicle production growth of 2% per year.Large scale “alternative” vehicle manufacturestarts in 2010 with 200,000 units per year andgrows at 20% per year thereafter.. . . because of the large existing baseof power stations and their longlifetimesGlobalinstalledpowergenerationcapacity,GW> All new coal stations capture andstore carbon or nuclear/renewable capacity is builtinstead> Natural gas is the principal otherfossil fuelTotal alternative vehiclesTotal traditional vehiclesAdditional capacity neededDeclining current capacity7
  • 10. Non-commercialSolidsLiquidsGasElectricityFinal energyAreduction in growth is not anacceptable path to a lowercarbon world. Rather, we needa decoupling of the current direct linkbetween standards of living andenergy consumption. The developingworld has the right to aspire to thelevels enjoyed in OECD countries, andimproved efficiency, diversity andtechnological development in ourenergy systems will be the keys toachieving this without escalatingemissions unsustainably.We are already seeing examples ofchange, such as an increased use ofgas, the introduction of advancedforms of renewable energy and highefficiency vehicles offered to theconsumer. The two chosen IPCCscenarios (A1B-AIM and B2-AIM) buildon these changes, with the evolutionthat we might see in the coming yearsillustrated in the side chart. This willnot be enough, however, as bothdevelopment paths lead to aneventual CO2 stabilization of around1000 ppm.Figure 13: Our current energyinfrastructure and possibleinfrastructures associated withthe two chosen IPCC scenarios.2000 2050 (B2-AIM) 2050 (A1B-AIM)1000 1 GWnuclear plants1000 1 GWhydro/tidal/geothermal500 millionvehicles500 million lowCO2 vehicles50 EJ non-commercial fuel100 EJ directfuel use25 EJ peryear solar500,000 5 MWwind turbines1000 1 GW coalpower stations1000 1 GW coalstations withcarbon capture1000 1 GWnatural gaspower stations1000 1 GW oilpower stations8 Gt carbonPredominantlyfossil fuel basedenergy worldwith hydro andnuclear power.309EJ15 Gt carbonIntermediate growth,local solutions, lessrapid technologicalchange.16 Gt carbonRapid economicgrowth and rapidintroduction of newand more efficienttechnologies.BIOPRODUCTBIOPRODUCTPETROL FOSSILBIOPRODUCTPETROL671EJ1002EJReshaping our energy future:The challenge ahead8
  • 11. 4A reduction of 6-7 Gt of carbon (22 Gt CO2) emissions peryear by 2050 compared to the A1B and B2 scenarios wouldplace us on a 550 ppm trajectory rather than 1000 ppmCO2, but a step-change (r)evolution in our energyinfrastructure would be required, utilizing resources andtechnologies such as:A further shift to natural gasNuclear energyRenewablesBio-productsCarbon capture and storageAdvanced vehicle technologiesOther energy efficiency measuresHow can an acceptable atmospheric CO2 stabilization be achieved?A lower carbon world will require a marked shift in theenergy/development relationship, such that similardevelopment levels are achieved but with an average 30%less energy use. Both energy conservation throughbehavioral changes and energy efficiency throughtechnologies play a role.Such a trend is a feature of the IPCC B1 storyline, whichsees a future with a globally coherent approach tosustainable development. It describes a fast-changing andconvergent world toward a service and informationeconomy, with reductions in material intensity and theintroduction of clean and resource efficient technologies.The scenario leads to relatively low GHG emissions, evenwithout explicit interventions to manage climate change.Energy conservation, energy efficiency and societal changeFigure 14: The reduction in CO2 emissions needed fora 550 ppm trajectory.There are many paths to a lower carbon world. The foldout chartillustrates but one of these. However, all paths will require solutionsfrom a range of emission reduction technologies as well as energyconservation and efficiency measures.CO2emissionsGtC/year25302000 2020 2040 2060 2080 210020151050550 ppm1000 ppm6-7 Gt reductionIPPC A1B-AIM 2050IPPC B2-AIM 2050Figure 15: IPCC scenario B1 shows the impact of a globallycoherent approach to sustainable development.CO2emissionsGtC/year2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 210005101520550 ppm1000 ppmScenario B1 emissions rangeScenario A1B/B2 emissions rangeReshaping our energy future: The challenge ahead9Source:IPCC2001bSource:IPCC2001b
  • 12. EmissionreductionNuclear energy700 1 GW nuclear plants rather thanequivalent conventional coal facilitieswould reduce emissions by 1 Gtcarbon per year.However:The 4+% growth rate neededexceeds the <2.5% growth rate innuclear in the 1990s.Nuclear has to overcome publicacceptance obstacles.Road transportRoad transport emissions contributed1.5 Gt of carbon emissions in 2000.This could rise to over 3 Gt by 2050as the number of vehicles exceeds2 billion. Yet:If all these vehicles increasedefficiency levels (e.g. using hybrid oradvanced diesel technologies),emissions could be lower by 1 Gtcarbon in 2050.If 800+ million vehicles utilized anew hydrogen transportinfrastructure (including fuel celltechnology) with zero emissionfuel production, emissions wouldalso be lower by 1 Gt carbon.The 9 Gt world presented here isbased on the use of high efficiencyICE vehicles, partly run on biofuel(see “Bio-products”).Mass transportationCO2 emissions per person vary overa 3:1 range for developed countrieswith similar lifestyles due toinfrastructure differences and publicattitude to mass transit.A further shift tonatural gasNatural gas is more efficient from acarbon perspective than conventionalcoal (assuming no CO2 capture) or oil(see Figure 4). 1400 1 GW CCGTrather than coal fired plants, means1 Gt less carbon emissions per year:A consistent growth of 2.6% peryear over 50 years is needed for the9 Gt world. This is greater than the2.4% which is forecast by IEA in theWorld Energy Outlook (2000-2030).Natural gas is still a fossil fuel witheconomic supply limits, whichmeans its role is transitory, ratherthan long-term.2050 (550 ppm trajectory)Figure 16: There are many paths to alower carbon world. One of these isillustrated here. However, all paths willrequire solutions from a range oftechnologies as well as energyconservation measures.9 Gt carbonRapid economic growth at lowenergy/carbon intensity,enabled by societal andtechnology changes.Energyconservationand efficiency705EJReshaping our energy future:Options for change
  • 13. Reshaping our energy future: Options for change4Carbon capture and storageCarbon capture and storage mayprovide an effective route to furtherutilize the world’s abundant coalresources. 700 1 GW coal fired powerstations utilizing capture and storagewould result in 1 Gt less of carbonemissions.A number of challenges exist:Low-cost CO2 separationtechnologySocietal acceptanceof the technologyIdentifying and developingsufficient sitesEstablishing monitoring protocolsBio-productsBiofuel- and biomass-based productscan reduce emissions from powergeneration, manufacturing andtransport. In 2000, the non-sustainableuse of biomass added 1 Gt carbonemissions to the atmosphere, for theproduction of only 50 EJ of non-commercial final energy (typically forcooking in developing countries). By2050, sustainable biofuel and biomassproduction could contribute 100 EJ offinal energy with little or no net CO2emissions.BuildingsThe US DOE Zero Energy Homeprogram has shown that a 90%reduction in net home energyuse can be achieved in newbuildings.Low energy appliancesToday, over 0.5 Gt of carbonemissions come directly andindirectly from lighting. Two billionpeople in developing countries usedirect fuel burning as their onlysource of lighting, consuming moreenergy per capita than many indeveloped countries for the samepurpose. A shift to advanced lightingtechnology, such as white LEDs(Light Emitting Diodes), could seeglobal reductions in related carbonemissions of up to 50%.Doing things differentlyThe information society offers realopportunity for energy conservation.Better stock management throughon-demand services and mobilecommunication results in less waste,reduced transport and ultimatelylower greenhouse gas emissions.Advances in wireless technology mayallow developing countries to rapidlyadopt such approaches, avoidingunnecessary infrastructureinvestment, which in turn could helptheir growth progress along a lowerEnergy per GDP trend line.RenewablesAn emission reduction of 1 Gt carbonper year could be achieved byreplacing 700 1 GW conventional coalplants with facilities based onrenewable energy.Wind power – Over 300,000 5 MWwind turbines would be required (for1 Gt) and would cover an area the sizeof Portugal, although much of theland would still be usable. Many arenow sited offshore.Solar power – Becoming an importantsource of electricity for the more than2 billion people worldwide who haveno access to the electrical power grid.Geothermal – Current capacity andpotential growth prospects are similarto wind and it has a very low land use‘footprint’.Hydroelectricity – Hydropower offersa renewable energy source on arealistic scale in many developingcountries where its potential is notfully utilized.10
  • 14. ARPANET: The Advanced Research Projects Agency Networkwas formed by the US government in the early 60s and ledto the development of ARPANET, the world’s first networkenabling communication between computer users.AIM: Scenarios from the Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)from the National Institute of Environmental Studies in Japan– see “IPCC Scenarios” below.Carbon dioxide (CO2): The principal gaseous product fromthe combustion of hydrocarbons such as natural gas, oil andcoal. CO2 exists naturally in the atmosphere and it is agreenhouse gas, but its concentration has been rising overthe last century.Carbon capture and storage: A long-term alternative toemitting carbon dioxide to the atmosphere is capturing andstoring it. Geological carbon storage involves the injection ofCO2 into subsurface geological formations. If the CO2 source isnot of sufficient purity, separation must take place first.CCGT and CHP: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine is a highlyefficient type of plant that can convert more than 50% of thechemical energy in the gas to electrical energy. The overallefficiency can be further improved in a combined heat andpower plant (CHP).Concentration: The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere at anygiven time, typically measured in parts per million (ppm). Inthis publication CO2 concentration means CO2 only and doesnot include other greenhouse gases.DOE: United States government Department of Energy.Emission: The release of a material (CO2 in this context) intothe atmosphere, typically measured in tonnes per year.ENIAC: Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer,commissioned in 1943 by the US Department of Defense(Dod) for their Ballistics Research Laboratory.Final energy: The energy we actually use in our cars, homes,offices and factories.GDP: Gross domestic product, a measure of the size of theeconomy.Gigatonnes (Gt): Carbon emissions to the atmosphere arevery large, so we measure them in gigatonnes, or billions oftonnes. One Gt CO2 in the atmosphere is equivalent to 0.3 Gtcarbon.Glossary and references11Greenhouse gas (GHG): Gases in the earth’s atmosphere thatabsorb and re-emit infrared radiation thus allowing theatmosphere to retain heat. These gases occur through bothnatural and human-influenced processes. The major GHG iswater vapor. Other primary GHGs include carbon dioxide(CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), CFCs and SF6.ICE: Internal combustion engine.IEA: International Energy Agency, an intergovernmental bodycommitted to advancing security of energy supply, economicgrowth and environmental sustainability through energy policyco-operation. A principal publication produced by IEA is theWorld energy outlook (WEO).IPCC: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)has been established by the United Nations to assess scientific,technical and socio-economic information relevant for theunderstanding of climate change, its potential impacts andoptions for adaptation and mitigation.IPCC scenarios: The IPCC developed four narrative storylines todescribe potential pathways and encompass differentdemographic, social, economic, technological, andenvironmental developments. Importantly, the storylines do notinclude specific climate initiatives such as the implementation ofthe Kyoto Protocol.Each scenario then represents a specific quantitativeinterpretation of one of the storylines. For each storyline severaldifferent scenarios were developed using different modellingapproaches. All the scenarios based on the same storylineconstitute a scenario ”family”.In this publication we have used the A1B (balanced energysupply mix) and B2 storylines, and for our illustration of specificenergy infrastructures, the scenarios from the Asian PacificIntegrated Model (AIM) from the National Institute ofEnvironmental Studies in Japan. The A1B-AIM is a markerscenario for the A1 storyline, with emissions in the middle of therange of all 40 IPCC scenarios. We have also referenced the B1storyline and family of scenarios given their strong emphasis onenergy efficiency and consequent low future emissions.Joule, GigaJoules (GJ) and ExaJoules (EJ): A joule is a measureof energy use, but being a small amount, must be expressed invery large numbers when discussing global energy. A GigaJouleis one billion joules (1 followed by 9 zeroes), an ExaJoule is 1followed by 18 zeroes. One ExaJoule is 278 billion kWh, or 278thousand GWh, or the equivalent of 32 1 GW power plantsrunning for one year.Glossary
  • 15. OECD: Organization for Economic Development andCooperation.Parts per million (ppm): Parts (molecules) of a substancecontained in a million parts of another substance. In thisdocument “ppm” is used as a volumetric measure toexpress the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere atany time.PPP: Purchasing Power Parity, the rate of currencyconversion that equalizes the purchasing power of differentcurrencies. PPPs compare costs in different currencies of afixed basket of traded and non-traded goods and servicesand yield a widely based measure of standard of living.Primary energy: The total energy available from ourresources, such as coal, oil and natural gas, assuming 100%efficient use of those resources.Stabilization: The long-term balanced concentration of CO2in the atmosphere. CO2 constantly migrates from theatmosphere to the oceans, to plant and animal life and thenback to the atmosphere where a balanced concentration hasbeen maintained for thousands of years. Following a changein the balance due to additional emissions, a new balance,or stabilization, may take centuries to establish itself.Watt, KiloWatts (KW), MegaWatts (MW), GigaWatts(GW) and Watt-Hour (Wh): A watt is a measure of the rateof energy use, and is equivalent to a joule per second. AMegaWatt is one million watts, a GigaWatt is one billionwatts. Power generation is typically expressed in watt-hours(Wh), which is the supply or use of one watt for a period ofone hour. Households express energy use in kilowatt-hours(kWh). An appliance that requires 1000 watts to operate andis left on for one hour will have consumed one kilowatt-hour of electricity. See also the definition of Joule.12• BP 2003: Statistical review of world energy• Central Intelligence Agency 2004: The world factbook• Evan Mills Ph.D., IAEEL and Lawrence Berkeley NationalLaboratory 2002: The $230-billion global lighting energy bill• Hadley Centre and Carbon Dioxide Information AnalysisCentre (CDIAC): http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/home.html• IEA 2003: CO2 emissions from fuel combustion 1971-2001• IEA 2002: World Energy Outlook• IPCC 2001 a: Climate change 2001, Synthesis report• IPCC 2001 b: Emissions scenarios: A special report of workinggroup III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change• UN 2002: World population prospects• WBCSD 2004: Mobility 2030: Meeting the challenges tosustainabilityPrincipal references and sourcesGlossary and references
  • 16. About the WBCSDAbout the WBCSD13Ordering publicationsWBCSD, c/o Earthprint LimitedTel: (44 1438) 748111Fax: (44 1438) 748844wbcsd@earthprint.comPublications are available at:www.wbcsd.orgwww.earthprint.comThe World Business Council for Sustainable Development(WBCSD) is a coalition of 170 international companies unitedby a shared commitment to sustainable development via thethree pillars of economic growth, ecological balance andsocial progress. Our members are drawn from more than 35countries and 20 major industrial sectors. We also benefitfrom a global network of 50 national and regional businesscouncils and partner organizations involving some 1,000business leaders.Our missionTo provide business leadership as a catalyst for changetoward sustainable development, and to promote the roleof eco-efficiency, innovation and corporate socialresponsibility.Our aimsOur objectives and strategic directions, based on thisdedication, include:> Business leadership: to be the leading businessadvocate on issues connected with sustainabledevelopment> Policy development: to participate in policydevelopment in order to create a framework that allowsbusiness to contribute effectively to sustainabledevelopment> Best practice: to demonstrate business progress inenvironmental and resource management andcorporate social responsibility and to share leading-edge practices among our members> Global outreach: to contribute to a sustainable futurefor developing nations and nations in transitionDisclaimerThis brochure is released in the name of the WBCSD. Likeother WBCSD publications, it is the result of a collaborativeeffort by members of the secretariat and executives fromseveral member companies. Drafts were reviewed by awide range of members, so ensuring that the documentbroadly represents the majority view of the WBCSDmembership. It does not mean, however, that everymember company agrees with every word.Energy and Climate Council ProjectCo-chairs Anne Lauvergeon (AREVA)John Manzoni (BP)Egil Myklebust (Norsk Hydro)Working group representatives from 75 member companiesand 12 regional BCSDsOur warmest thanks to all members of the Energy and Climateworking group for their contribution to this brochure.Project director Laurent Corbier (WBCSD)Lead author David Hone (Shell)Co-author Simon Schmitz (WBCSD)Design Michael Martin and Anouk Pasquier (WBCSD)Photo credits Pictures on cover, page 8 and page 9 courtesyof Toyota Motor Corporation.Copyright © WBCSD, August 2004.ISBN 2-940240-63-9Printer Atar Roto Presse SA, SwitzerlandPrinted on paper containing 50% recycledcontent and 50 % from mainly certified forests(FSC and PEFC). 100 % chlorine free.ISO 14001 certified mill.
  • 17. 4, chemin de Conches Tel: (41 22) 839 31 00 E-mail: info@wbcsd.orgCH - 1231 Conches-Geneva Fax: (41 22) 839 31 31 Web: www.wbcsd.orgSwitzerland

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