Sv kand eurcrisis_ba_23052012

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Sv kand eurcrisis_ba_23052012

  1. 1. Slovakia and the Eurocrisis Juraj Karpiš www.INESS.sk karpis@iness.sk
  2. 2. €uro Illusions
  3. 3. €uro-Party
  4. 4. Loans to Households and Nonfinancial Corporations as a % GDP 1998 vs. 2008
  5. 5. Two Years Later after EFSF, EFSM, IMF, ECB Intervention
  6. 6. Banks are Crucial in Europe
  7. 7. Debt as in WW2
  8. 8. Possible Scenarios high economic growth, EU grows out of debt dramatic increase in taxes, dramatic cuts in social benefits and pensions – debt repayment defaults - Nordic €, decomposition of EMU? – New Deutsche Mark? SK in or out? Plan B? inflation (Quantitative Easing or similar facility of buying bonds for new money produced by ECB, LTROs) transfer union / fiscal centralization – “fiscal compact”, redistribution of wealth and losses among EU countries, ESM, moral hazard, tragedy of the commons, central planning, slow growth, instability – nationalism, no real “European citizen”
  9. 9. EFSF Guarantees as % of Public Revenues –Burden on Economy in Convergence Process
  10. 10. www.EuroKriza.sk
  11. 11. Juraj Karpišwww.INESS.skkarpis@iness.sk

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