Tax Seminar 2013 - Outlook by Robert Prega
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Like this? Share it with your network

Share

Tax Seminar 2013 - Outlook by Robert Prega

  • 1,308 views
Uploaded on

Tatra Banka's Robert Prega presented his outlook on Slovakia's economy at the 2013 Tax Seminar of the Italian-Slovak Chamber of Commerce.

Tatra Banka's Robert Prega presented his outlook on Slovakia's economy at the 2013 Tax Seminar of the Italian-Slovak Chamber of Commerce.

More in: Business
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
1,308
On Slideshare
619
From Embeds
689
Number of Embeds
3

Actions

Shares
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 689

http://www.italoblog.it 674
http://abtasty.com 13
http://feeds.feedburner.com 2

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Slovakia Outlook 2013Róbert Prega, Tatra bankaChief economist
  • 2. Slovak economy - catching up regional peers GDP in PPS per capita (EU27=100) 85% 85% Czech rep. 80% 80% 75% Slovakia 75% Poland 70% 70% 65% 65% Hungary 60% 60% 55% 55% 50% 50% 45% 45% 40% 40% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
  • 3. Economic environment - still not very supportive in the this year GDP growth% 6.0 4.0 1.8 2.0 0.5 1.5 0.0 -0.1 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013f 2015f Germany Eurozone 3Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
  • 4. Expected improvement in H2 2013 Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH 4
  • 5. Medium-term growth prospect of the economy depends also on the government GDP growth % 12.0 10.5 10.0 8.0 8.3 6.7 6.0 5.8 4.4 5.1 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.6 4.8 3.5 2.0 2.4 2.5 1.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -4.9 -6.0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 5Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, Tatra banka RESEARCH
  • 6. Strong contribution of automotive industry will decrease in the year Structure of GDP growth 8% 5.9% 6% 4.2% 3.4% 2.4% 0.9% 4% 5.5% 3.2% 2% 2.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0% 0.4% 0.2% -0.4% -2% -4.5% -4% -4.9% -6% 2 008 2 009 2 010 2 011 2 012 2 013 Automotive industry Rest of economy 6Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak republic, Tatra banka RESEARCH
  • 7. Growth differential is narrowing... Growth differential SR versus Eurozone 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012e 2014f 7Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
  • 8. How strong is commitment of government to decrease the deficit? 60 9 54.9 55.8 56.0 8.0 7.7 52.2 8 50 43.3 7 41.0 40 6 35.4 4.9 4.6 5 30 27.8 4 20 2.9 3 2.4 2.1 1.9 2 10 1 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Public Debt Deficit as % of GDP 8Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, Ministry of Finance
  • 9. High public debt - global problem Public debt % of GDP 250 200 150 % of GDP 100 50 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Eurozone USA Japan Slovak Republic 9Source: Eurostat, OECD
  • 10. Slower growth, lower inflation Key macroeconomic ndicators in 2013 versus 2012 16.0 13.8 14.1 14.0 12.0 2012 e 2013 f 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.6 4.0 3.6 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.0 0.9 0.6 -0.2 0.0 GDP CPI Employment Unemployment Deficit -2.0 10Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak republic, Tatra banka RESEARCH
  • 11. Summary• Eurozone debt crisis is not by far fixed and risk of another turmoil on the market is still very material• ECB will remain key stabilisation factor• Eurozone will be still on the verge of recession in H1 2013 with prospect of gradual recovery in H2 2013 and 2014• Growth perspective for Slovak economy determined by Eurozone a economic policy of government in medium term 11
  • 12. Thank you for attention. 12