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1The American Presidential Elections        Sir Robert Worcester, KBE DL          Chancellor & Visiting Professor         ...
The American Presidential Election                                         2           King’s College              London ...
32008
This is what happened in 2008                         Obama/Biden 53%                                                     ...
Swing Analysis: 2008 American Presidential Election                                                                       ...
Final Polls 2008                                                                                                          ...
The American Presidential Elections                                      7           2012
Remember the debates?                        8
Think back: who did the Republicans want to beat Obama?                                                               9 Jo...
Chronology of the 2012 Election                                                                                           ...
Six reasons why I said that Obama will win*                                     11 1. The election of the Republican Congr...
2012 American election ‘matchups’ January                                                                         12%50   ...
2012 American election ‘matchups’ March                                                                                 13...
The conventions came...and went; no change50          Republican Convention                                               ...
Since then, close, widened, closed, recoveredQ “If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates...
And looking at some key segments of voters...Q “In your opinion, which political party better serves the needsof…?”       ...
But Obama won the second, by 15 pointsQ “Regardless of which candidate you happen to support,who do you think did the bett...
And Obama won the third, by 16 pointsQ “Regardless of which candidate you happen to support,who do you think did the bette...
Obama’ 7 point lead today on healthcare steady   Q “In your opinion, which candidate for President has the better plan,   ...
Source: Ipsos USA,      In your opinion, which candidate has a better WhichFW 23-27.10.12,1,665 RV; 1,291 LV              ...
Obama +24 point favourablity rating over Romneyafter the second debate, up from +10 before debateQ “Would you say you are ...
What Nate Silver is projecting                    (As of 5:15 am 31.10.12)    270 TO WIN         Seats                  Od...
Where Obama will win (or lose?)                                (Election 6.11.12)    What are the odds now?          (10th...
Six talking points for you (attribution not required)                                                         251. Yes, Ro...
6 days to go to November 6th, election day!                                              26               Q & A          ...
State of the Election: Updated 5:15 am on October 31st                 27Nov. 6 ForecastNowBarack Obama          Electoral...
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US Presidential Election: The UK and European Perspective

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October 31 2012: Professor Sir Robert Worcester, founder of MORI, presented his perspective and predictions for the 2012 US Presidential Election based on the latest polling. The event was held by the Centre for Political and Constitutional Studies, Institute of Contemporary British History at King's College London.

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  1. 1. 1The American Presidential Elections Sir Robert Worcester, KBE DL Chancellor & Visiting Professor University of Kent 10 September 2012 Chancellor@kent.ac.uk @RobertWorcester Mobile: 07974 812 723
  2. 2. The American Presidential Election 2 King’s College London Visiting Professor and Honorary Fellow Sir Robert Worcester, KBE DL 31 October 2012 rmworcester@yahoo.com @RobertWorcester
  3. 3. 32008
  4. 4. This is what happened in 2008 Obama/Biden 53% McCain/Palin 46% 4 Battleground States Obama Lead 7 270 ELECTORAL VOTES TO WIN Source: www.realclearpolitics.com
  5. 5. Swing Analysis: 2008 American Presidential Election 5 2004 USA Presidential Election Result 2008 USA Presidential Election Result Obama State Bush Kerry Other Kerry Lead McCain Obama Other Obama Lead Swing % % % % % % % % %Alabama 63 37 0 -26 61 39 0 -22 2.0Alaska 61 36 3 -25 60 38 2 -22 1.5Arizona 55 44 1 -11 54 45 1 -9 1.0Arkansas 54 45 1 -9 59 39 2 -20 -5.5California 44 54 2 10 37 61 2 24 7.0Colorado 52 47 1 -5 45 54 1 9 7.0Connecticut 44 54 2 10 38 61 1 23 6.5Delaware 46 53 1 7 37 62 1 25 9.0Florida 52 47 1 -5 49 51 0 2 3.5Georgia 58 41 1 -17 52 47 1 -5 6.0Hawaii 45 54 1 9 27 72 1 45 18.0Idaho 68 30 2 -38 61 36 3 -25 6.5Illinois 45 55 0 10 37 62 1 25 7.5Indiana 60 39 1 -21 49 50 1 1 11.0Iowa 50 49 1 -1 45 54 1 9 5.0Kansas 62 37 1 -25 57 41 2 -16 4.5Kentucky 60 40 0 -20 58 41 1 -17 1.5Louisiana 57 42 1 -15 59 40 1 -19 -2.0Maine 45 54 1 9 41 58 1 17 4.0Maryland 43 56 1 13 37 62 1 25 6.0Massachusetts 37 62 1 25 36 62 2 26 0.5Michigan 48 51 1 3 41 57 2 16 6.5Minnesota 48 51 1 3 44 54 2 10 3.5Mississippi 60 40 0 -20 57 43 0 -14 3.0Missouri 53 46 1 -7 49 49 2 0 3.5Montana 59 39 2 -20 50 47 3 -3 8.5Nebraska 66 33 1 -33 57 42 1 -15 9.0Nevada 51 48 1 -3 43 55 2 12 7.5New Hampshire 49 50 1 1 45 54 1 9 4.0New Jersey 46 53 1 7 42 57 1 15 4.0New Mexico 50 49 1 -1 42 57 1 15 8.0New York 40 58 2 18 37 62 1 25 3.5North Carolina 56 44 0 -12 49 50 1 1 6.5North Dakota 63 36 1 -27 53 45 2 -8 9.5Ohio 51 49 0 -2 47 51 2 4 3.0Oklahoma 66 34 0 -32 66 34 0 -32 0.0Oregon 47 51 2 4 41 57 2 16 6.0Pennsylvania 48 51 1 3 44 55 1 11 4.0Rhode Island 39 59 2 20 35 63 2 28 4.0South Carolina 58 41 1 -17 54 45 1 -9 4.0South Dakota 60 38 2 -22 53 45 2 -8 7.0Tennessee 57 43 0 -14 57 42 1 -15 -0.5Texas 61 38 1 -23 55 44 1 -11 6.0Utah 72 26 2 -46 63 34 3 -29 8.5Vermont 39 59 2 20 31 68 1 37 8.5Virginia 54 46 0 -8 47 53 0 6 7.0Washington 46 53 1 7 41 58 1 17 5.0West Virginia 56 43 1 -13 56 43 1 -13 0.0Wisconsin 49 50 1 1 43 56 1 13 6.0Wyoming 69 29 2 -40 65 33 2 -32 4.0Dist Columbia 9 90 1 81 7 93 0 86 2.5 USA 51 48 1 -3 46 53 1 7 5.0Analysis by Sir Robert W orcester and Tomasz Mludzinski, Ipsos Voting in 2008 45.9% 52.7% 1.3% 6.8% © MORI, London: rmworcester@yahoo.com 127,142,278 58,421,377 67,066,915 1,653,986 8,645,538 23.11.08
  6. 6. Final Polls 2008 6 FINAL POLLS 4.11.08 Foot- Sample Fieldwork OBAMA MCCAIN Others Dont LEAD Vote OBAMA MCCAIN OTHERS LEAD LEAD O-M Obama McCain ALL Polling Organisation note Size End Dates Know Obama w/o DK ERROR SHARE SHARE SHARE POLL n % % % % % % % % % ERROR ERROR ERROR ACCURACY# % % % %1 RasmussenReports 4 n/a 03-Nov-08 52 46 1 1 6 99 53% 46% 1% 7% 0 0.0% 0% 0% 19/192 Ipsos/McClatchy 2 760 02-Nov-08 53 46 1 7 100 53% 46% 1% 7% 0 0.0% 0% 0% 53%/46%3 Diageo/Hotline 2 800+ 02-Nov-08 50 45 5 5 95 53% 47% 0% 9% 2 0.5% 0% 1% 100% within4 Pew Research 2 2,995 01-Nov-08 52 46 2 6 100 52% 46% 2% 9% 2 0.5% 1% 0% +/-3%5 Daily Kos/Research 2000 2 1,100 03-Nov-08 51 46 2 1 5 99 52% 46% 2% 6% -1 0.5% 1% 0% 18/196 Fox News,Opinion Dynamics 2 971 02-Nov-08 50 43 2 5 7 95 53% 45% 2% 8% 1 0.5% 0% 1% 53%/46%7 YouGov/Polimetrix 1,3 31,148 02-Nov-08 51 45 2 2 6 98 52% 46% 2% 6% -1 0.5% 1% 0% 95% within8 NBC/Wall Street Journal 2,5 1,011 02-Nov-08 51 43 1 5 8 95 54% 45% 1% 6% -1 1.0% 1% 1% +/-2%9 American Research Group Inc 2 1,200 03-Nov-08 53 45 1 1 8 99 54% 45% 1% 9% 2 1.0% 1% 1% 11/1910 Democracy Coprs/Greenberg QR 2 1,000 02-Nov-08 53 44 3 9 100 53% 44% 3% 9% 2 1.0% 0% 2% 53%/46%11 Marist 2 1,011 03-Nov-08 52 43 3 2 9 98 53% 44% 3% 9% 2 1.0% 0% 2% 58% within12 Harris Interactive 2,3 5,210 03-Nov-08 52 44 4 8 100 52% 44% 4% 8% 1 1.5% 1% 2% +/-1%13 IBD/TIPP 2,4 n/a 03-Nov-08 52 44 4 8 100 52% 44% 4% 8% 1 1.5% 1% 2%14 CNN/Opinion Research 2 1,011 01-Nov-08 51 43 4 2 8 98 52% 44% 4% 8% 1 1.5% 1% 2%15 ABC/Wash Post 2 2,762 02-Nov-08 53 44 2 1 9 99 54% 44% 2% 10% 3 1.5% 1% 2%16 CBS News 2 1,051 02-Nov-08 51 42 2 5 9 95 54% 44% 2% 10% 3 1.5% 1% 2%17 Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby 2 n/a 03-Nov-08 54 43 3 11 100 54% 43% 3% 11% 4 2.0% 1% 3%18 Gallup 2 3,050 02-Nov-08 55 44 1 11 100 55% 44% 1% 11% 4 2.0% 2% 2%19 GWU/Battleground 4 n/a 03-Nov-08 50 48 2 2 100 50% 48% 2% 2% -5 2.5% 3% 2% AVERAGE 52 44 2 7 98.4 53% 45% 2% 8% 1 1.1% 0.8% 1.3% ELECTION RESULT 53% 46% 1% 7% ELECTION RESULT 52.6% 46.1% 1.3% 6.6% Analysis by Robert Worcester and 99.8% counted 66,316,572 58,013,719 1,631,950 8,302,853 Tomasz Mludzinski, Ipsos MORI Turnout 125,962,241 rmw orcester@yahoo.com 1 Registered Voters, 2 Likely Voters, 3 Internet Panel, 4 Technical details missing from html announcement, 5 Conducted by Hart/New house
  7. 7. The American Presidential Elections 7 2012
  8. 8. Remember the debates? 8
  9. 9. Think back: who did the Republicans want to beat Obama? 9 John Huntsman Newt Gingrich Herman Cain Sarah Palin Rick Santorum Mitt Romney Ron Paul Michele Bachman
  10. 10. Chronology of the 2012 Election 10 End September: Romney 23%, Perry 20%, Cain 14%, Gingrich 9% End October: Cain 25%, Romney 22%, Gingrich 12%, Perry 10% November 22: Republican Presidential Debate (three state debates prior) End November: Gingrich 33%, Romney 22%, Cain 12%, Paul 10% End December: Gingrich 28%, Romney 24%, Paul 12%, Perry 7%, Santorum 4% January 2: Romney wins Iowa caucus by 8 votes; Santorum close second January 10: New Hampshire primary, January 21: South Carolina primary January 30: Florida primary, February 28: Arizona & Michigan primaries March 6: Super Tuesday, 10 states: ALA, GA, ID, MA, ND, OK, TN, TX, VT, VA. March: 13th, AB, AS, HA, MISS; 17th MO; 18th PR; 20th IL; 24th LA April: DC, MD, WIS, CONN, Del, NY, PA, RI; May: IN, NC, WV, NE, OR, ARK, KE, TX August 27-30: Republican National Convention Sept 3-6: Democratic National Convention October 3: 1st National Presidential Debate October 11: Vice Presidential Debate October 16: 2nd National Presidential Debate October 22: 3rd National Presidential Debate British elections November 6: Election Day usual length
  11. 11. Six reasons why I said that Obama will win* 11 1. The election of the Republican Congress in 2010 2. The improving economy in 2011/12 3. The Republicans are a divided party 4. There will be right-wing Republicans who’ll stay home 5. Barak Obama is a formidable campaigner 6. Michele is as well N.B. I said that I thought ‘President Obama would win with just over* Warwick University, 11 January 2012 300 electoral college votes
  12. 12. 2012 American election ‘matchups’ January 12%50 49 Obama vs... 49 4848 47 47 47 % 4646 45 4544 43 4242 41 41403836 Romney Gingrich Santorum Paul Perry Huntsman Source: CBS
  13. 13. 2012 American election ‘matchups’ March 13%60 Obama vs... 52 49 50 5050 44 43 Huntsman? GONE 42 3940 Perry? GONE302010 0 Romney Gingrich Santorum Paul Source: Gallup, NBC, Rassmussen
  14. 14. The conventions came...and went; no change50 Republican Convention Democratic Convention Obama Obama 47% 46%45 +4 +4 43% 42% Romney Romney Swing = 0%40 Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10 Day 11 Day 12 Day 13 Day 14 http://spotlight.ipsos-na.com/index.php/elections /Source: 1,000+ interviews with Registered Voters age 18 and over carried out online as part of four-day rolling poll. Data weighted to national population profile.
  15. 15. Since then, close, widened, closed, recoveredQ “If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obamafor president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote?” P1 VP P2 P3 % 60 ELECTION DAY Obama/Biden 50.5% 50 40 Romney/Ryan 49.5% 30 20 10 (DK 7%) 3rd 11th 16th 22nd 0 01-Nov 03-Nov 05-Nov 02-Oct 04-Oct 06-Oct 08-Oct 10-Oct 12-Oct 14-Oct 16-Oct 18-Oct 20-Oct 22-Oct 24-Oct 26-Oct 28-Oct 30-Oct 27-Aug 29-Aug 31-Aug 02-Sep 04-Sep 06-Sep 08-Sep 10-Sep 12-Sep 14-Sep 16-Sep 18-Sep 20-Sep 22-Sep 24-Sep 26-Sep 28-Sep 30-SepSource: c. 1,000+ interviews with Registered Voters age 18 and over carried out online as part of four-day rolling poll. Source: Reuters/Ipsos
  16. 16. And looking at some key segments of voters...Q “In your opinion, which political party better serves the needsof…?” Women (56%) Black Americans (12%) Hispanic Americans (8%) Don’t Don’t know 2% Don’t know 1% knowOther/None19% 13% 11% 7% Democratic Democratic Ind Party Party Party 8% 43% Independent 45% Democratic Party Somewhat Mitt Romney, Republican Party Republican 17% Favourable Somewhat Party Mitt Romney, 84% Republican Mitt Romney, 18% Unfavourable 28% 50%Republican Party 50% Republican 18% +15 +84 33% 16% +29 Base: 1,074 Registered Voters, Base: 117 Registered Voters, Base: 76 Registered Voters, Oct. 23-27 On-Line Oct. 23-27, On-Line Oct. 23,-27, On-Line Source: Reuters/Ipsos USA
  17. 17. But Obama won the second, by 15 pointsQ “Regardless of which candidate you happen to support,who do you think did the better job in the debate?” First Debate Second Debate Don’t know Don’t know 19% +15 22% Barack Obama, Democrat 48% Somewhat Mitt Romney, +22 Mitt Romney, Favourable Somewhat Mitt Romney, Republican Republican Romney, 18% Unfavourable Mitt Republican 50% 33% Republican Lean 18% 50% 33% toward favourable 18.5% swing 15% Base: 1,323 Registered Voters, Oct. 3, On-Line Base: 655 Registered Voters, Oct. 17, On-Line Source: Reuters/Ipsos USA
  18. 18. And Obama won the third, by 16 pointsQ “Regardless of which candidate you happen to support,who do you think did the better job in the debate?” First Debate Second Debate Third Debate Don’t know Don’t know Don’t know 19% 22% 22% Barack Barack Obama, Obama, Democrat Democrat Mitt Romney, 48% 47% Mitt Romney, Somewhat Mitt Romney, Republican Favourable Somewhat Republican Mitt Romney, 33% Republican 50% Republican Mitt Romney, 18% Unfavourable 31% 50% Republican 18% +22 +15 33% +16 18.5% swing 0.5% swing Base: 1,323 Registered Voters, Base: 655 Registered Voters, Base: 515 Registered Voters, Oct. 3, On-Line Oct. 17, On-Line Oct. 23, On-Line Source: Reuters/Ipsos USA
  19. 19. Obama’ 7 point lead today on healthcare steady Q “In your opinion, which candidate for President has the better plan, policy or approach to… Healthcare?” … the US Economy” Healthcare US Economy DK 12% 12% Men DK +6% Women DK 13% None +10 None 41% 12% +7* -1%* 37% Obama Obama 34% Men Romney +15% 38% Women - 5% Romney*+16% 4 weeks ago, +13% 3 weeks, +7% a week ago *+1% 4 weeks ago, +5% 3 weeks, -4% 2 weeks agoBase: 1,491 American Registered Voters, Oct. 13-17, On-Line, update Oct. 23, 2012 Source: Reuters/Ipsos
  20. 20. Source: Ipsos USA, In your opinion, which candidate has a better WhichFW 23-27.10.12,1,665 RV; 1,291 LV candidate...is...better/stronger policy, plan, approach/which is stronger/... on...? on each of the following...? 20 Policy, Plan, Image Obama Romney Policy Gap Image Attributes Obama Romney Approach GapWomen’s Rights 49% 26% +23 Fun to meet 41% 15% +26Gay Marriage 43% 25% +18 Likeable 51% 32% +19The Environment 40% 26% +14 Eloquent 44% 29% +15Education 42% 31% +14 Understands people 43% 31% +12American Auto Ind’sty 41% 30% +11 Good person 45% 36% +9Social Security 39% 31% +8 Presidential 46% 39% +7Healthcare 43% 49% +8 Represents America 45% 39% +6Medicare 41% 41% +7 Smart enough for job 45% 40% +5War on Terrorism 40% 39% +7 Right values 43% 40% +3Foreign Policy 39% 43% +5 Protect American jobs 42% 40% +2Iran 35% 41% +5 Tough enough for job 42% 41% +1Taxes 40% 40% +3 Effective in Wash’ton 38% 39% -1Immigration 33% 32% +1 Man of faith 31% 45% -14Small Businesses 40% 39% +1Israel 31% 33% -2Jobs and Employment 39% 41% -2US Economy 31% 36% -5Federal Deficit 30% 40% -10
  21. 21. Obama +24 point favourablity rating over Romneyafter the second debate, up from +10 before debateQ “Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards…?” President Republican Presidential Barack Obama Candidate Mitt Romney Very Very Very unfavourable Very favourable 40% unfavourable favourable 22% (-8) 22% 21% (+3) 34% 60% 52% Somewhat Somewhat +12 +20 +12 -4 Favourable Somewhat Unfavourable Somewhat Unfavourable 18% (+1) 7% Lean Favourable 48% 11% (+2) toward 17% Lean Lean Lean toward unfavourable1 toward favourable 11% toward favourable Unfavourable 12% (-1) 9% 16% (+1) Base: 1,491 American Registered Voters, Oct. 16-20 2012, On-Line Source: Reuters/Ipsos
  22. 22. What Nate Silver is projecting (As of 5:15 am 31.10.12) 270 TO WIN Seats Odds Popular Vote Mitt Romney, RepublicanMitt Romney, Barack 23% Barack Mitt Romney, BarackRepublican Obama, Obama, Republican Obama, Democrat Democrat Democrat 239 Mitt Romney, Mitt Romney, 48% Somewhat Republican 50%299 Republican 77% Favourable Mitt Romney, 18% 50% Somewhat Unfavourable 50% Republican 18% 33% +22 http://fivethirtyeight.nytimes.com/
  23. 23. Where Obama will win (or lose?) (Election 6.11.12) What are the odds now? (10th) (18th) (28) 10.10.12 13.10.12 18.10.12 31.10.12 Ohio 40% 47 50 68%/32% 64%/36% 72%/28% 78%/22% Va. 16% 23 15 56%/44% 41%/59% 50%/50% 62%/38% Fla. 10% 17 3 45%/55% 28%/72% 37%/63% 50%/50% Wis. 8% 6 8 80%/20% 74%/26% 81%/19% 88%/12% Nev. 8% 7 8 69%/31% 73%/27% 73%/27% 83%/17% Iowa 6% 5 6 62%/38% 60%/40% 74%/26% 72%/26% Colo. 5% 5 6 51%/49% 43%/57% 57%/43% 61%/39% New H. 3% 4 3 77%/23% 66%/34% 71%/29% Somewhat75%/25% Favourable Somewhat 18% Unfavourable Mitt Romney, 18% 10.10.12 13.10.12 Republican 18.10.12 31.10.12 Lean toward National 50% 75%/25% 63%/37% 70%/30% 77%/24% favourable 15% Somewhat http://fivethirtyeight.nytimes.com/ unfavourable 10%
  24. 24. Six talking points for you (attribution not required) 251. Yes, Romney won the first debate, so did Nick!2. A third of ‘Independents’ won’t vote anyway. (DKDV)3. 24% of Americans in 2007 said they’d never vote for a Mormon; dropped now to 12%; no data I can find on those who think they’d never vote for a black man since 1965.4. 42% of Americans said in 1998 they are ‘born again Christians’; many are ‘Tea Party Types’, natural core voters for the Republican Party.5. Therefore, will some right-wing Republicans stay home?6. 12% say they’ve already voted; in all, only 72% of registered voters say they’ll vote on the day.7. One American in 25 say they’d rather have a tooth pulled than watch another debate.
  25. 25. 6 days to go to November 6th, election day! 26 Q & A Thank you!  rmworcester@yahoo.com  @RobertWorcester
  26. 26. State of the Election: Updated 5:15 am on October 31st 27Nov. 6 ForecastNowBarack Obama Electoral Vote Mitt Romney 299 221.1 +10.7 since 23 Oct -10.7Barack Obama Chance of Winning Mitt Romney 77.4% 22.6% +9.3 since 23 Oct. -9.3Barack Obama Popular Vote Mitt Romney 50.4% 48.5% +0.4 since 23 Oct. -0.4 Source: 538: NYT: Nate Silver
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