The image-of-america-2008-2009

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The image-of-america-2008-2009

  1. 1. 1The Image of America:Then (2008) - and Now (2009)Presented by: Sir Robert WorcesterEnglish-Speaking UnionParis21 September 2009
  2. 2. Understanding public opinion research 2 We measure perceptions, not facts Two kinds of findings we bring to our clients: - reality, and misperception Five things we find: behaviour, knowledge, and… three levels of ‘views’: – Opinions – Attitudes – Values
  3. 3. 3Measuring Images
  4. 4. Measuring images 41. You can’t measure images in a vacuum2. Familiarity breeds favourability, not contempt3. Images are built on trust4. Images are built gradually, but can be destroyed instantly
  5. 5. 5Image of America: Then
  6. 6. 6British Attitudes
  7. 7. America wrong to bomb Libya: 1986 7 Q. “Do you think President Reagan Q. “Do you think Mrs Thatcher was right or was right or wrong to order the wrong to give President Reagan permission bombing of Libya on Monday night in for American bombers to fly from British reaction to Libya’s support given to bases to participate in the attack on Libya?” terrorists?” DK DK 5% 4% Right Right 29% 25% 66% 71% Wrong Wrong Gallup & Harris MORI Base: c. 1,000 British adults aged 16+ on 17 April 1986 (all three, on same day
  8. 8. “Hatred of America Unites the World” (Sunday Telegraph, 25.02.07) 8 By Niall Ferguson “Being hated is no fun… and few people hate being hated more than Americans… Being hated is what happens to dominant empires… That’s a feeling American soldiers in Baghdad must know pretty well… The paradox of unfriendly allies is not confined to the Middle East… Anti-Americanism is nothing new in European politics… Back in 1999, 83 per cent of British people surveyed… said they had a favourable opinion of the United States… But by 2006… that proportion had fallen to 56%.”
  9. 9. British were favourable to USA, even in 2006 9Q Please now tell me how favourable or unfavourable your overall opinions or impression is of each country I read out. Please keep in mind that it is your overall opinion that we are interested in. Very Mainly Neither/ Mainly Very Don’t know % net favourable favourable nor unfav. unfav /no opinion % net change favour- from able 2005 4% 20% 70% 50% +67% 23% 3% 4% +67% N/A +67% 2% 21% 68% 47% 26% 1% 5% +67% N/A +38% 9% 8% 47% 39% 39% 8% 5% +38% +6% +30% 18% 11% 48% 37% 32% 13% 5% 2% +30% -2% 18% 11% 53% 42% +35% 26% 13% 5%3% +35% +6%Base: British adults (1,064) 2-7 March 2006 Source: Ipsos MORI
  10. 10. British concerns about American influence 10 Q Please tell me whether you think America has too much, too little, or about the right amount of influence on each of the following… Too Much About right Too little Editors Defence 57% Policy 67% 16% 7% 9% British 60% Television 59% 22% 8% 11% British 12% Industry 56% 24% 7% 13% 28% British Economy 51% 27% 11% 11% 28% British Morality 31% 27% 11% 31%Base: British adults (1,064) 2-7 March 2006 Source: Ipsos MORI
  11. 11. British image of the USA - 2006 11Q “Here is a list of things that some people have said about various countries. Would you look through the list and call out the numbers of those things that you think apply to America?” % change Top Mentions from 2005Good place for holiday 68% +8Essential military ally 44% 0Good place to do business 40% +3Sound economic base 27% +2Inept in foreign policy 27% +3Understands Britain well 24% +3Contributes to Britain’s 0economic prosperity 21%Leader in solving world 0problems 20% Base: British adults (1,064) 2-7 March 2006 Source: Ipsos MORI
  12. 12. Reasons for British unfavourability towards USA 12 ‘Others’ reasons for unfavourability They didn’t have the flood in 2006 [It] seems very New Orleans under control – superficial and self- not bothered with the poor centred US Government is against other cultures; Fanatical about especially the Islamic Christianity world They are racist. Death sentenceBase: British adults (1,064) 2-7 March 2006 Source: Ipsos MORI
  13. 13. Reasons for British unfavourability towards USA 13 They seem to They think they are think they are in 2006 so much better than charge of the anyone else whole world (they are) not caring, such as Religious when New fundamentalism Orleans was neglected during the crisis I don’t like their President Too much crimeBase: British adults (1,064) 2-7 March 2006 Source: Ipsos MORI
  14. 14. Images by comparison: perceptual map 14 2006 Rather unfriendly Supports strong EU Competitor not ally Leader in solving Policies disrupt world problems Contributes to Britain’s Germany NATO Inept foreign policy economic prosperity Good training system Poor educational system Good place to Essential military ally business do Making an effective effort to USA solve its domestic problems Shares Britain’s economic goals Better political Good health service Helpful to Britain in system than Britain resolving problems Sound economic base Understands Britain well Strong environmental Good for holiday policy CanadaBase: Adults: Britain (1,064), 2 - 7 March 2006 Source: Ipsos MORI
  15. 15. Was it us, or them? - 2008 15 Q. “Please tell me if you have a very Q. “Please tell me if you have a very favourable, somewhat favourable, favourable, somewhat favourable, somewhat somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable or very unfavourable view of unfavourable view of the United Americans?” States?” Very DK favourable Very 8% 53%unfavourable 11% 13% 70% 10% 9% 12% 5% 37% 4% +16 +70 45% Somewhat 25% favourable 57% Somewhatunfavourable Swing = 27 Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project 2008
  16. 16. Americans, and USA, regarded rather differently (2008) 16 100%Opinion of the United States HIGH/ 2 R = 0.77 LOW Kenya 80% S. Korea Nigeria Canada Britain Mexico Lebanon France India HIGH/ 60% Poland Germany Russia HIGH Brazil Indonesia 50% Argentina Japan 40% Spain China Jordan Egypt 20% Pakistan LOW/ Turkey LOW/ LOW HIGH 0% 0% 20% 40% 50% 60% 80% 100% Opinion of Americans
  17. 17. New US President’s Foreign Policy? 17 Q What is your view of the new US President’s US foreign policy, will it change for the better, not change that much, or change for the worse? % Change for the better % Change for the worse USA 45 5 Britain 53 3 Germany 64 1 France 68 1 Spain 67 1 Russia 32 14 Turkey 29 13 Pakistan 20 24 Indonesia 48 7 Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project 2008
  18. 18. 18Image of America: Now
  19. 19. 19International Attitudes
  20. 20. Favourable views of the USA – 2000 - 2009 20 Q Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of the United States. % 90 83% Very/Somewhat Favourable (all now above 50%) 80 France 75% EUROPE 70 Britain 69% Germany 64% 60 53% Spain 58% 50 42% Average 40 increase in 33% favourability Core support: 30 = + 73% Britain c. 50% 31% 20 France c. 40% Spain c. 35% 10 Germany c. 30% The Bush Years Obama 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Base: c. 27,000 adults in 25 countries Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project 2009Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3rd week
  21. 21. Favourable views of the USA – 2000 - 2009 21 Q Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of the United States. 100 % Very/Somewhat Favourable (Others now above 50%) 90 80 S. Korea 78% 70% India 76% 70 Poland 67% 68% Canada 68% 66% Indonesia 63% 60 Brazil 61% 50% Japan 59% 50 55% Lebanon 55% 51%Others 47% 40 Average Kenya 90% (up from 87%) Average increase in 37% 30 Nigeria 79% (up from 64%) increase in favourability favourability Israel 71% (down from 78%) 20 = +10% Mexico 69% (Up from 47%) = +10% 10 Argentina 38% (up from 22%) The Bush Years Obama 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Base: c. 27,000 adults in 25 countries Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project 2009Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3rd week
  22. 22. Favourable views of the USA – 2000 - 2009 22 Q Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of the United States. % 90 Very/Somewhat Favourable (still below 50%) 80 Average 70 increase in favourability 60 = +2% 50 46% China 47% 40 Russia 44% 41% 30 Egypt 27% 22% Jordan 26% 20 19% 19% Pakistan 16% 10 Turkey 14% 12% The Bush Years Obama 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Base: c. 27,000 adults in 25 countries Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project 2009Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3rd week
  23. 23. Confidence in US President 23Q How much confidence do you have in US President George W. Bush to do the right thing regarding world affairs?” (2008) / US President Barack Obama…? (2009) Obama lift % A lot/some % Not too much/none USA 37 +24% 60 +70% Britain 16 81 Germany 14 +79% 85 France 13 +78% 87 Spain 8 +64% 88 Russia 22 +15% 69 Turkey 2 +31% 89 Pakistan 7 +5% 61 Indonesia 23 +48% 66 Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project 2008/2009
  24. 24. Low Confidence in Bush, Most high on Obama 24 100% HIGH/ HIGH/ LOW HIGH 80% KenyaGeorge W. Bush Confidence in 60% Nigeria India LOW/ Poland LOW/ 40% LOW Lebanon HIGH China S. Korea Canada Russia Indonesia Japan 20% Britain Mexico Brazil Germany Egypt France Jordan Spain Pakistan Argentina Turkey 0% R2 = .22 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Confidence in Barack Obama Base: c. 27,000 adults in 25 countries Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project 2008/9
  25. 25. 25What Changed?
  26. 26. “Hello, I’m Barack Obama” (in Port of Spain, to Chavez) 26
  27. 27. 27What Now?
  28. 28. The US should exert strong leadership 28Q. “How desirable is it that the United States exert strong leadership in world affairs?” 2008 2009 Very DK desirable Very 7% 38% desirable 5% 12% 58% 3% 37% 19% 10% 56% 31% - 22 27% + 21 Somewhat desirable 46% 37% Somewhat desirable Swing = 20.5 Base: 7,015 European Union citizens, Fr, Germ, Italy, Neth, Poland, UK, Port. (Source: TNS/GMF)
  29. 29. Respecting human and citizens rights bring respect 29Q, “Thinking about the attributes listed please choose the top two attributes that you thinkare the most important for a country to have in order to be respected.” (Average of Top Two Attributes) Respects human rights 36% What they are Respects the rights of its citizens 26% looking for Contributes to international peace and cooperation 23% Has a strong economy 21% Has strong democratic values and institutions 21% Its people enjoy a good standard of living 21% What the USA is Respects its neighbors and other countries 14% talking about Makes a positive difference in the world 14% Contributes to international socio-economic development 9% Contributes to the global economy 7% Is a good country in which to invest 3% Has a strong commitment to culture and the arts 3%Nov 2008…Sample of c. 1,000 per Country http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/ Source: Ipsos North America
  30. 30. Attributes associated with the United States 30Q, “How does the United States compare with other countries, based on thefollowing attributes?” (% Well above average + Slightly above average) Its people enjoy a good standard of living 59% Contributes to the global economy 59% Has strong democratic values and institutions 51% What the USA is Has a strong economy 48% talking about Contributes to international socio-economic 48% development Respects the rights of its citizens 46% Has a strong commitment to culture and the arts 40% Respects human rights 39% What they are Is a good country in which to invest 39% looking for Makes a positive difference in the world 37% Contributes to international peace and 28% cooperation Respects its neighbors and other countries 22%Nov 2008…Sample of c. 1,000 per Country http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/ Source: Ipsos North America
  31. 31. Respects human rights 31Q “How does the United States compare with other countries,based on the following attributes?” Well above average Slightly above average Total 15% 24% 39% India 44% 31% 75% The United States 32% 29% 61% Poland 24% 37% 61% China 23% 29% 52% The Czech Republic 18% 34% 52% South Korea 18% 34% 52% Russia 24% 27% 51% Turkey 20% 21% 41% Italy 14% 26% 40% Japan 13% 27% 40% Great Britain 13% 26% 39% Canada 13% 26% 39% France 11% 22% 33% Australia 11% 22% 33% Brazil 11% 19% 30% Mexico 10% 19% 29% Spain 7% 17% 24% The Netherlands 6% 18% 24% Belgium 6% 17% 23% Germany 4% 15% 19% Sweden 3% 15% 18% Argentina 6% 10% 16%Nov 2008…Sample of c. 1,000 per Country http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/ Source: Ipsos North America
  32. 32. Respects human rights 32Q “How does the United States compare with other countries,based on the following attributes?” Slightly below average Well below average Total 12% 7% 19% Sweden 23% 12% 35% Spain 19% 12% 31% Belgium 20% 10% 30% Argentina 17% 13% 30% Germany 19% 10% 29% Mexico 16% 12% 28% The Netherlands 19% 8% 27% France 17% 9% 26% Brazil 14% 10% 24% Australia 12% 8% 20% Canada 12% 7% 19% Italy 11% 5% 16% Great Britain 10% 5% 15% Turkey 7% 8% 15% Russia 9% 4% 13% China 7% 6% 13% The United States 10% 2%12% Japan 9% 2%11% The Czech Republic 7% 2%9% South Korea 6% 3% 9% Poland 4%2% 6% India 2% 3% 1%Nov 2008…Sample of c. 1,000 per Country http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/ Source: Ipsos North America
  33. 33. Respect the rights of its citizens 33Q “How does the United States compare with other countries,based on the following attributes?” Well above average Slightly above average Total 19% 27% 46% India 51% 30% 81% Poland 29% 37% 66% China 30% 35% 65% Russia 31% 29% 60% South Korea 23% 36% 59% The United States 30% 27% 57% The Czech Republic 21% 35% 56% Turkey 30% 25% 55% Japan 17% 33% 50% Great Britain 15% 32% 47% Italy 18% 28% 46% Mexico 16% 27% 43% Canada 14% 26% 40% Brazil 17% 22% 39% Australia 13% 25% 38% France 14% 23% 37% Argentina 11% 23% 34% Spain 11% 21% 32% The Netherlands 7% 21% 28% Belgium 7% 21% 28% Germany 5% 23% 28% Sweden 3% 18% 21%Nov 2008…Sample of c. 1,000 per Country http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/ Source: Ipsos North America
  34. 34. Respect the rights of its citizens 34Q “How does the United States compare with other countries,based on the following attributes?” Slightly below average Well below average Total 16% 11% 27% Argentina 25% 33% 58% Spain 26% 18% 44% Mexico 21% 21% 42% Sweden 27% 14% 41% Germany 25% 13% 38% Turkey 14% 22% 36% Belgium 22% 13% 35% Brazil 19% 16% 35% The Netherlands 22% 12% 34% France 20% 10% 30% Australia 17% 8% 25% Italy 15% 8% 23% Great Britain 15% 8% 23% China 10% 11% 21% Canada 12% 8% 20% Russia 11% 8% 19% Japan 14% 4% 18% South Korea 8% 5% 13% The Czech Republic 8% 4% 12% The United States 7% 2%9% Poland 5% 4% 9% India 4%2% 6%Nov 2008…Sample of c. 1,000 per Country http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/ Source: Ipsos North America
  35. 35. Contributes to international peace and cooperation 35Q “How does the United States compare with other countries,based on the following attributes?” Well above average Slightly above average Total 10% 18% 28% India 32% 28% 60% The United States 28% 26% 54% Poland 19% 27% 46% The Czech Republic 14% 23% 37% South Korea 11% 25% 36% China 12% 22% 34% Australia 11% 21% 32% Italy 12% 19% 31% Canada 11% 19% 30% The Netherlands 9% 21% 30% Great Britain 9% 21% 30% Japan 7% 23% 30% France 9% 18% 27% Spain 8% 14% 22% Belgium 6% 16% 22% Germany 4% 14% 18% Brazil 7% 10% 17% Russia 6% 11% 17% Mexico 5% 11% 16% Sweden 3% 12% 15% Turkey 5% 7% 12% Argentina 3% 5% 8%Nov 2008…Sample of c. 1,000 per Country http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/ Source: Ipsos North America
  36. 36. Contributes to international peace and cooperation 36Q “How does the United States compare with other countries,based on the following attributes?” Slightly below average Well below average Total 19% 24% 43% Argentina 21% 56% 77% Turkey 17% 52% 69% Mexico 21% 44% 65% Russia 31% 28% 59% Brazil 24% 32% 56% Sweden 24% 28% 52% Spain 22% 26% 48% Germany 23% 23% 46% Belgium 23% 21% 44% China 18% 24% 42% Canada 20% 21% 41% France 19% 21% 40% Italy 18% 17% 35% Japan 18% 16% 34% Australia 16% 18% 34% Great Britain 16% 17% 33% The Netherlands 16% 16% 32% The Czech Republic 16% 15% 31% South Korea 16% 15% 31% Poland 14% 14% 28% India 9% 7% 16% The United States 9% 6% 15%Nov 2008…Sample of c. 1,000 per Country http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/ Source: Ipsos North America
  37. 37. 37Defence
  38. 38. Defence barely registers on the current list of public concerns… 38Q. What would you say are the most important issues facing Britain today? Top mentions % Change since April 2009 Economy 59 -6 Race relations/immigration 30 +1 Crime/law and order 30 +2 Unemployment 20 -3Morality/Individual Behaviour 14 +6 NHS 13 -2 Education/Schools 12 -1 Inflation/prices 10 -3 Pollution/Environment 8 0 Housing 8 +2 Defence/Foreign Affairs/ 7 -2 Terrorism Base: 1,006 British adults, fieldwork 21 – 27 May 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI
  39. 39. …indeed concern with defence is at its lowest point since before 9/11 39Q. What would you say are the most important issues facing Britain today? Howard Cameron Brown % becomes Tory Leader becomes Tory Leader becomes PM 70 War in Iraq London Bombs 60 9/11 Failed terror 50 attacks in London and Glasgow 40 War in Kosovo 30 20 Foot and Mouth General Election - crisis extra £400 million 10 allocated for defence budget 0 May May May May May May May May May May May May May 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Base: 1,006 British adults, fieldwork 21 – 27 May 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI
  40. 40. Despite this, half the public think weshould be spending more on defence 40Q. In the UK, for every £1 of public spending, 5 pence goes to Defence. Do youthink this is too much, too little, or about the right amount for the UK to bespending on Defence? Too little 50 51% Swing = 13% 40 The right amount 33% 30 20 10 Too much 6% 0Sept/Oct 2006 Feb/March 2007 Aug/Sept 2007 March/April 2008 Sept/Oct 2008 Mar-09Base: 1,030 British adults, fieldwork 13 – 30 March 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI
  41. 41. Afghanistan: substantial gap favour US Anti-terrorism v. agree keeping troops there 41Q Do you favour or oppose U.S. led efforts in Afghanistan?Q Should the U.S. and NATO keep troops in Afghanistan or remove them? FAVOUR KEEP GAP Russia 54 16 -38% Poland 66 30 -36% Brazil 60 26 -34% China 50 16 -34% Mexico 56 22 -34% Spain 59 44 -25% France 74 50 -24% USA 81 57 -24% Israel 80 59 -23% Germany 68 48 -20% Britain 64 46 -18% Canada 59 43 -16% Turkey 24 15 -9% S. Korea 23 38 15% Base: c. 750 – 1,200 adults in each country, May – June 2009 Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project
  42. 42. 42 Thank you. Questions?rmworcester@yahoo.com
  43. 43. Afghanistan: most favour US led anti-terrorism efforts 43 Q. Do you favour or oppose U.S. led efforts in Afghanistan? 2007 2009 +/- Russia 50% 54% +4% Poland 52 66 +14 Brazil 41 60 +19 China 26 50 +24 Mexico 31 56 +25 Spain 21 59 +38 France 43 74 +31 +19% USA 70 81 +11 Israel 78 80 +2 Germany 42 68 +24 Britain 38 64 +26 Canada 37 69 +22 Turkey 9 24 +15 S. Korea 10 23 +13 Base: c. 750 – 1,200 adults in each country, May – June 2009 Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project
  44. 44. Afghanistan: Keeping Troops in Afghanistan? 44Q Should the U.S. and NATO keep troops in Afghanistan or remove them? 2008 2009 +/- Russia 14 16 +2 Poland 24 30 +6 Brazil 19 26 +7 China 8 16 +8 Mexico 12 22 +10 Spain 34 44 +10 France 46 50 +4 +5% USA 50 57 +7 Israel 59 59 0 Germany 43 48 +5 Britain 48 46 -2 Canada 43 43 0 Turkey 8 15 +7 S. Korea 37 38 +1 Base: c. 750 – 1,200 adults in each country, May – June 2009 Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project

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