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SNPConference 2011: Ipsos MORI Scotland Briefing Pack

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As the SNP gathers for its first conference s a majority government, Ipsos MORI looks at the rise in support for the party in recent times and considers key challenges for the future.

As the SNP gathers for its first conference s a majority government, Ipsos MORI looks at the rise in support for the party in recent times and considers key challenges for the future.

Published in: News & Politics, Sports

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  • 1. SNP Party Conference 2011An Ipsos MORI briefingOctober 2011Contacts:Mark.Diffley@ipsos.com0131 240 3269
  • 2. Voting intention
  • 3. After securing a majority in the Scottish Parliament,the SNP has a commanding lead in our latest poll Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote? Others – 3% Lib Dem 7% SNP 13% Conservative 49% 28% Labour Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 4. The party’s share of voting intention has increasedsteadily over the last six years Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other Scottish Parliament Election Scottish Parliament Election Result Result 50 49% 40 30 28% 20 13% 10 7% 0 3% Mar- Jun- Sep- Mar- Jun- May- 2008 Aug- Nov- Feb- Aug- Nov- Feb- Apr- May- Aug- 05 05 05 06 06 07 09 09 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 5. SNP support is higher among men and older people Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote? SNP Labour Lib Dem Conservative Men 54% 23% 13% 6% Women 45% 32% 12% 8% 18-24 41% 35% 13% 7% 25-34 45% 33% 12% 7% 35-54 52% 28% 6% 9% 55+ 50% 24% 18% 5% Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 6. It is also stronger among those in work Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote? SNP Labour Lib Dem Conservative Urban 49% 32% 11% 5% Rural 51% 13% 17% 13% Working 51% 29% 6% 6% Not working 48% 33% 8% 8% Retired 47% 22% 23% 4 Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 7. Over the last 18 months, the SNP has gained supportacross all groups – particularly among older people Percentage point change since February 2010 (+/-) 18 20 15 15 12 11 12 11 7 6 3 e an ng al + ng e 4 4 4 dal al 55 -2 -3 -5 ire ur rb ki kiM m 18 25 35 R et or or U Fe R w W ot N Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+, February 2010 and August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 8. Satisfaction with Alex Salmond
  • 9. Almost two thirds of Scots are satisfied with the wayAlex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister? Don’t know 9% 28% Dissatisfied Satisfied 62% Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 10. His satisfaction rating is considerably higher thanany of the other main UK party leaders Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as Prime Minister/Deputy Prime Minister/leader of the Labour party? Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Alex Salmond 62% 28% +34David Cameron 30% 61% -31 Nick Clegg 26% 62% -36 Ed Milliband 35% 49% -14 Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 11. The First Minister’s satisfaction rating is consistentlystrong and has never been higher Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as First Minister of Scotland/Leader of Scottish Liberal Democrats/leader of the Labour Party/Prime Minister/Deputy Prime Minister? Alex Salmond Willie Rennie Ed Milliband David Cameron Nick Clegg % satisfied 62% 60 50 40 35% 30 30% Gordon Brown Tavish Scott 26% 20 Ed Milliband 17% 10 Willie Rennie 0 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 12. Satisfaction is highest among SNP supporters but isalso drawn from other parties’ voters Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister of Scotland? % Satisfied % Dissatisfied 90 45 52 34 36 6 58 47 Conservative supporters Labour supporters Lib Dem supporters SNP supporters Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 13. The First Minister is popular across all groups Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister of Scotland? % Satisfied % Dissatisfied 65 60 71 60 62 61 63 63 60 61 65 28 29 19 21 27 27 27 31 31 32 30 an g al en en d ng 4 4 4 + in ire 55 -2 -3 -5 ur rbM om ki k 18 25 35 R et or or U W R w W ot N Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 14. Over the last 18 months, Alex Salmond has gainedsupport across all groups – particularly young people Percentage point change since February 2010 (+/-) 25 21 19 19 18 16 15 13 15 15 12 e an ng al + ng e 4 4 4 dal al 55 -2 -3 -5 ire ur rb ki kiM m 18 25 35 R et or or U Fe R w W ot N Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+, February 2010 and August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 15. Important issues
  • 16. The economy and unemployment are currentlythe most important issue facing Scots Q. What do you see as the most important issue facing Scotland today? Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Scotland today? SNP (Most + others) supporters Economy/economic situation 33% 37% Unemployment/factory closure 31% 32% / lack of industry Education/schools 26% 29% Public spending cuts 20% 21% NHS/hospitals/health care 17% 19% Crime/law and order/ASB 14% 12%Scottish independence/devolution 12% 14% Immigration/immigrants 9% 10% (race relations) Sectarianism 7% 8% Housing 7% 8% Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 17. Independence has increased in importance since theScottish Parliament elections Q. What do you see as the most important/other issue facing Scotland today?5040 Economy 33%30 Unemployment 31% Education 26%20 Public sector cuts 20% NHS 17% Crime 14%10 Independence 12% 0Aug 2009 Nov 2009 Feb 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Nov 2010 Feb 2011 May 2011 Aug 2011 Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 18. Economic optimism
  • 19. Scots are slightly more optimistic about the prospects forthe Scottish economy than they are for the UK economy Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? UK economy Scottish economy Don’t know, 2% Don’t know, 4% Improve Improve 18% 22% Worsen 42% 49% Worsen 30% Stay the same Stay the 32% same Base: All asked about UK economy (508); all asked about Scottish economy (494) Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011
  • 20. Optimism has dipped slightly since April, though it isnot as low as this time last year Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? (% improve minus % worse) UK economy Scotlands economy % Net UK General Election Comprehensive Scottish Scottish improve Spending budget Parliament Review approved Election 30 20 10 0 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 -10 -20 -20% -30 -31% -40 -50 Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone (half were asked about UK economy and half about Scottish economy) Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 21. SNP supporters are least pessimistic about theScottish economy Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? (% improve minus % worse) % Improve % Worsen 28 24 15 15 48 44 33 53 Conservative supporters Labour supporters Lib Dem supporters SNP supporters Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 22. Independence
  • 23. The majority of Scots back more powers for theScottish Parliament Q. The referendum is likely to contain two separate questions. The first question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to include more laws and duties and all tax raising powers, while Scotland remains part of the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with the proposal: All who are certain All to vote Undecided/Don’t know Undecided/Don’t know 8% 5%Disagree Disagree 26% 28% 66% 67% Agree Agree Source: Ipsos MORI Base: All (1,002); All certain to vote (703). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011
  • 24. Support for more powers is higher among youngerpeople Q. The referendum is likely to contain two separate questions. The first question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to include more laws and duties and all tax raising powers, while Scotland remains part of the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with the proposal: % Support % Oppose 68 66 74 72 66 64 69 75 57 68 64 68 62 28 29 19 23 29 28 18 26 27 31 37 32 34 ng l n e ed g ed + ed 4 4 4 e a a n al 55 -2 -3 -5 al ur ki riv rb ki ir riv M m 18 25 35 R et or or U ep ep Fe R w W td td ot os as N M Le Base: All (1,002); All certain to vote (703). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 25. However, only around a third of Scots support fullindependence Q. The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an independent country, separate from the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal: All who are certain All to vote Undecided/Don’t know Undecided/Don’t know 7% 5% 35% Agree 35% Agree 58% 60% Disagree Disagree Source: Ipsos MORI Base: All (1,002); All certain to vote (703). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011
  • 26. Support for independence is higher among youngpeople and those living in more deprived areas Q. The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an independent country, separate from the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal: % Support % Oppose 48 49 45 38 31 32 34 33 33 29 35 32 25 49 45 52 58 63 65 59 62 62 67 61 61 70 g l n ng ed ed e + ed 4 4 4 e a n a al 55 -2 -3 -5 al ur ki riv rb ki riv ir M m 18 25 35 R et or or U ep ep Fe R w W td td ot os as N M Le Base: All (1,002); All certain to vote (703). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 27. However, those groups are less likely to votein a referendum Q. And, how likely would you be to vote in a referendum, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means would be absolutely to vote and 1 that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Certain to vote in a referendum(%) Men 74 Women 63 18-24 49 25-34 58 35-54 71 55+ 76 Working 70 Not working 60 Retired 71 Most deprived 63 Least deprived 72 Urban 67 Rural 71 Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 28. Just under half of those who would vote yes to morepowers, would also vote yes to independence Q. The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an independent country, separate from the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal: Those supporting first proposal Undecided (6%) 44% Oppose Support independence independence 50% Base: All supporting more powers and certain to vote (458). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 29. The majority of SNP supporters would vote yes toboth questions Q. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal: Full fiscal powers Independence Oppose Support 17% Support Oppose 40% 60% 83% Base: All voting SNP in Scottish Parliament election (414). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 30. The majority of Scots would like the referendum tobe held earlier than the SNP plans Q. When do you think the referendum should be held? Don’t know – 3% Never/shouldn’t be held 6% As soon as 28% possible Between 2 and 5 years from now 37% 55% 27% Within the next 2 years Base: All certain to vote = 68% (703). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 31. Thank youFor further information contactmark.diffley@ipsos.com on 0131 240 3269christopher.mclean@ipsos.com 0131 240 3264Follow us on Twitter @IpsosMORIScot © 2009 Ipsos MORI – all rights reserved