Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - October 2012

Paste co- brand logo hereScottish Public Opinion MonitorOctober 2012

2Independence

Paste co-Support for independence has fallen to 30% among those brand logo herecertain to vote, down five points since June 3Q. Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? All Certain to vote Undecided Undecided Yes 12% Yes 19% 28% 30% 58% No 52% No „Yes‟ change since June = -4% „Yes‟ change since June = -5%Base: All = 1,003; all certain to vote = 66% (688). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co-Support for independence is highest among men, those agedbrand logo 35- here54 and SNP supporters 4Q. Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ SNP Labour Cons. Lib Dem 67% 37% 30% 35% 24% 27% 27% 11% 4% 7% Yes 17% No 54% 49% 55% 61% 63% 62% 79% 86% 92%Base: All certain to vote = 66% (688). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co-Support for independence has fallen by nine points since brand logo hereJanuary 5Q. Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? January 2012 June 2012 October 2012 39% 35% 30% Yes No 50% 55% 58%Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co- Support for independence – 35 year trend brand logo here 6 60 50 Scottish Parliament opensSupport for independence (%) Introduction of the poll tax Devolution referendum SNP form majority in Scotland government 40 30 20 SNP form minority government 10 Devolution referendum 0 2011 1981 1987 1993 1999 1978 1979 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey) © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

7Scottish Parliament voting

Paste co-The SNP have a five point lead over Labour among those certainlogo brandto vote… here 8Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you useyour first vote? All giving a voting All who are certain to intention (91%) vote (63%) Others Others Lib Dem 5% Lib Dem 4% SNP SNP 8% 8% Cons. Cons. 12% 36% 13% 40% 35% Labour 39% Labour SNP lead over Labour = -3% SNP lead over Labour = +5%Base: All giving a voting intention = 88% (880); all certain to vote = 63% (642). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

… although Labour have closed the gap considerably since Paste co- brand logo hereJanuary 9Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you useyour first vote? Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other 60 Scottish Parliament Election Scottish Parliament Election Result Result 50 40 40% 35% 30 20 13% 10 8% 4% 0Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

10Satisfaction with party leaders

Paste co-Satisfaction with all party leaders has fallen since June – except for the brand logo herePrime Minister 11Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//PrimeMinister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives? Don‟t know Net satisfaction Net satisfaction change (Jun Dissatisfied Satisfied ‟12) Alex Salmond 40% 50% 9% +10% -3% Johann Lamont 30% 35% 34% +5% -4% Ruth Davidson 35% 26% 39% -9% -2% Willie Rennie 30% 23% 47% -7% -3% Patrick Harvie 16% 22% 62% +6% -6% David Cameron 64% 29% 8% -35% +11%Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co-Satisfaction with Alex Salmond and Johann Lamont has fallen among their logo brandown party’s supporters here 12Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//PrimeMinister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives? Don‟t know Net satisfaction Net satisfaction change (Jun Dissatisfied Satisfied ‟12) Alex Salmond 9% 83% 8% +74% -10% Johann Lamont 18% 58% 24% +40% -6% Ruth Davidson 18% 59% 23% +41% +15% Willie Rennie 15% 54% 31% +39% +5% David Cameron 16% 75% 9% +59% +27%Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co- brand logoSatisfaction with party leader trends here 13Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//PrimeMinister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives? Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie 70 60 50 50% 40 35% 30 26% 23% 20 22% 10 0 Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co- Technical details brand logo here 14• This presents the topline results from Scotland• Results are based on a survey of 1,003 respondents conducted by telephone• Fieldwork dates: 8th October – 15th October 2012• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don‟t know” categories• Results are based on all respondents (1,003) unless otherwise stated© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co- brand logo hereThank youmark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 @IpsosMORIScotchristopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264 18.10.12© Ipsos MORI This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006.

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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - October 2012

by Ipsos MORI on Oct 18, 2012

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