Scottish Labour Party Conference October 2011: Ipsos MORI

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Ipsos MORI's briefing back for 2011 Scottish Labour Party Conference presented by Mark Diffley

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Scottish Labour Party Conference October 2011: Ipsos MORI

  1. 1. Scottish Labour Party Conference 2011An Ipsos MORI briefingOctober 2011Contacts:Mark.Diffley@ipsos.com0131 240 3269
  2. 2. Holyrood
  3. 3. Our latest poll found Labour trailing the SNP by 21points in Holyrood voting intention Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote? Others – 3% Lib Dem 7% SNP 13% Conservative 49% 28% Labour Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  4. 4. Just under a year ago, Labour looked on course to regainpower at Holyrood, but support has fallen considerably Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other Scottish Parliament Election Scottish Parliament Election Result Result Labour’s share of voting 50 intention has fallen by 13 49% points in less than a year 40 30 28% 20 13% 10 7% 0 3% Mar- Jun- Sep- Mar- Jun- May- 2008 Aug- Nov- Feb- Aug- Nov- Feb- Apr- May- Aug- 05 05 05 06 06 07 09 09 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone Source: Ipsos MORI
  5. 5. In the last year, Labour has lost support acrossall groups… Percentage point change since November 2010 (+/-)201510 5 0 -5-10 Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+-15 Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib Dem Dem Dem Dem Dem Dem Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+, November 2010 and August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  6. 6. …almost exclusively to the SNP Percentage point change since November 2010 (+/-)201510 5 0 -5-10-15 Working Not working Retired Urban Rural Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib Dem Dem Dem Dem Dem Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+, November 2010 and August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  7. 7. The challenge facing the new leader
  8. 8. Almost two thirds of Scots are satisfied with the wayAlex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister? Don’t know 9% 28% Dissatisfied Satisfied 62% Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  9. 9. The new leader will have to do better than IainGray… Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing their job as …? Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Don’t knowAlex Salmond 51% 35% +16 14% Annabel Goldie 32% 30% +2 38% Iain Gray 33% 34% -1 33% Tavish Scott 26% 34% -8 40% Data from April 2011 Base: 1,019 Scottish adults 18+, 14-18 April2011
  10. 10. …particularly if they are to engage with the party’ssupporters Q. Before this interview, how much, if anything, would you say you knew about Iain Gray? Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Iain Gray is doing his job as leader of the Scottish Labour Party? Knowledge among Satisfaction among Labour supporters Labour supporters Never heard Don’t know of them 15% A great 19% deal 24% Satisfied 23% 58%Heard of but 18% 43%knew nothing Dissatisfiedabout A little Data from April 2011 Base: 1,019 Scottish adults 18+, 14-18 April 2011
  11. 11. Westminster
  12. 12. Labour fair slightly better in Westminster votingintention, but still trail the SNP by 19 points Q. How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Others – 4% Lib Dem 6% SNP 15% 42% Conservative 33% Labour Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  13. 13. The party’s share of voting intention has fallen sincethe General Election Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other General Election General Election Result Result 50 42% 40 30 33% 20 15% 10 6% 4% 0 Mar- May- Mar- Jun- 2007 2008 Aug- Nov- Feb- Apr- May- Aug- Nov- Aug- 05 05 06 06 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 11 Year Base: All certain to vote – March 2005 (434); March 2006 (526); June 2006 (520); August (571); November 2009 (576); February 2010 (608); April 2010 (685); August 2010 (710); November 2010 (640); August 2011 (608) Pre Aug 2009 – data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults face-to-face; Post Aug 2009 - Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone
  14. 14. Almost half of Scots are dissatisfied with his performanceas party leader, while only around a third are satisfied… Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as Leader of the Labour Party? Don’t know 16% 35% Satisfied 49% Dissatisfied Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  15. 15. …and Ed still has some way to go to match thepopularity of his predecessor in Scotland Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as Leader of the Labour Party/Prime Minister? % Satisfied % Don’t know % Dissatisfied Ed Miliband Gordon Brown (August 2011) (April 2010) 16% 9% 35% 48% 44% 49% Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 14-17 April 2011; 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  16. 16. A considerable proportion of Labour supporters aredissatisfied with his performance Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as Leader of the Labour Party? Don’t know 9% 36% 55% Satisfied Dissatisfied Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  17. 17. Important issues
  18. 18. Unemployment is a particular concern forLabour supporters Q. What do you see as the most important issue facing Scotland today? Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Scotland today? Labour (Most + others) supporters Economy/economic situation 33% 28% Unemployment/factory closure 31% 32% / lack of industry Education/schools 26% 27% Public spending cuts 20% 22% NHS/hospitals/health care 17% 20% Crime/law and order/ASB 14% 17%Scottish independence/devolution 12% 11% Immigration/immigrants 9% 8% (race relations) Sectarianism 7% 6% Housing 7% 8% Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  19. 19. Among Scots, the economy is the most important issue but concernabout unemployment has risen sharply since the election Q. What do you see as the most important/other issue facing Scotland today?5040 Economy 33%30 Unemployment 31% Education 26%20 Public sector cuts 20% NHS 17% Crime 14%10 0Aug 2009 Nov 2009 Feb 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Nov 2010 Feb 2011 May 2011 Aug 2011 Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone Source: Ipsos MORI
  20. 20. Economic optimism
  21. 21. Scots are slightly more optimistic about the prospects forthe Scottish economy than they are for the UK economy Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? UK economy Scottish economy Don’t know, 2% Don’t know, 4% Improve Improve 18% 22% Worsen 42% 49% Worsen 30% Stay the same Stay the 32% same Base: All asked about UK economy (508); all asked about Scottish economy (494) Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011
  22. 22. Optimism has dipped slightly since April, though it isnot as low as this time last year Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? (% improve minus % worse) UK economy Scotlands economy % Net UK General Election Comprehensive Scottish Scottish improve Spending budget Parliament Review approved Election 30 20 10 0 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 -10 -20 -20% -30 -31% -40 -50 Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone (half were asked about UK economy and half about Scottish economy) Source: Ipsos MORI
  23. 23. Labour supporters are most pessimistic about theScottish economy Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? (% improve minus % worse) % Improve % Worsen 28 24 15 15 48 44 33 53 Conservative supporters Labour supporters Lib Dem supporters SNP supporters Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  24. 24. And have consistently been the most pessimisticabout the Scottish economy over the last year Q. Do you think that the general economic condition of Scotland will improve, stay the same or get worse over next 12 months?(% improve minus % worse) Con Lab Lib SNP % Net UK General Election Comprehensive Scottish budget Scottish Parliament improve Spending Review approved election 50 40 30 20 10 +5% 0 Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 -5% -10 -14% -20 -30 -40 -41% -50 -60 Base: All asked about Scottish economy (509). Scottish adults 18+, 10-14 February 2011
  25. 25. Independence
  26. 26. The majority of Scots support increased powers forthe Scottish Parliament…Q. The referendum is likely to contain two separate questions. The first question will askwhether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the ScottishParliament to include more laws and duties and all tax raising powers, while Scotlandremains part of the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree ordisagree with the proposal: Undecided/ Don’t know 8% Support Oppose 26% 66% Base: 1,002 Scottish adults, 18+, 25th-29th August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  27. 27. Only a third of Scots support independenceQ. The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal toextend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become anindependent country, separate from the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, wouldyou vote to agree or disagree with this proposal: Undecided/ Don’t know 7% Support 35% Oppose 58% Base: 1,002 Scottish adults, 18+, 25th-29th August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  28. 28. Just over half of Labour supports support morepowers while the vast majority oppose independence Q. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal: Full fiscal powers Independence Undecided/ Don’t know – 5% Undecided/ Don’t know – 1% Support Support 19% Oppose Oppose 38% 57% 80% Base: All Labour supporter in Scottish Parliament election (174). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  29. 29. The majority of Scots would like the referendum tobe held earlier than the SNP plans Q. When do you think the referendum should be held? Don’t know – 3% Never/shouldn’t be held 6% As soon as 28% possible Between 2 and 5 years from now 37% 55% 27% Within the next 2 years Base: All certain to vote = 68% (703). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  30. 30. Thank youFor further information contactmark.diffley@ipsos.com on 0131 240 3269christopher.mclean@ipsos.com 0131 240 3264Follow us on Twitter @IpsosMORIScot © 2009 Ipsos MORI – all rights reserved

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