Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 days to go
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Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 days to go

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The Scottish Independence referendum on 18 September 2014 will be a major political focus of the autumn. This presentation highlights how public opinion is shifting in Scotland and the rest of the UK, ...

The Scottish Independence referendum on 18 September 2014 will be a major political focus of the autumn. This presentation highlights how public opinion is shifting in Scotland and the rest of the UK, as well as the wider implications of a yes or no vote.

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    Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 days to go Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 days to go Presentation Transcript

    • Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 Days to Go #KingsIpsosMORI © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
    • 2 Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 Days to Go Mark Diffley Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public • 11/11/13
    • No poll has ever shown a majority in favour of independence 3 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1978 1983 1988 1993 Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey) © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public 1998 2003 2008 2013
    • February 2014 4 Undecided 11% Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes 32% No 57% Base: All certain to vote © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
    • Not much has changed in the last two years 5 Should Scotland be an independent country? 70% No 60% 50% 40% Yes 30% 20% Undecided 10% 0% Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
    • Deprivation and national identity appear to be key drivers 6 Yes No 71 Scottish not British Scottish not British 69% More Scottish than More Scottish than British British 47 41 Equally Scottish Equally Scottish and British and British 20 49% 12% Least deprived areas Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20 th– 25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public 4% British not Scottish British not Scottish Most deprived areas More British than More British than Scottish Scottish 3% Yes
    • 7 45% Scots who…  may not vote (22%)  will vote but are undecided (9%)  will vote but may change their vote (14%) © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
    • Undecided voters lean marginally towards ‘Yes’ 8 Which way are you inclined to vote? All undecided voters Undecided 33% Yes 39% No 29% Base: All undecided (159). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
    • 9 What will happen afterwards? © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
    • The referendum is less important outside Scotland 10 % saying referendum is important to them in 2014 To what extent do you agree or disagree that Scotland should be an independent country? 19% Agree 72% 17% 43% Scotland England/Wales Data collected among 2,244 British adults aged 16-75 6th-11th December 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Q1a/Q2a Which, if any, of the following have you done in the past 12 months? Disagree Source: Ipsos MORI Base (n=2,600)
    • 11 If Scotland votes Yes? © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
    • Economic impact closely correlated with voting intention 12 If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative impact or no impact on each of the following? The Scottish economy/ The amount of public money available to spend in Scotland Scottish economy Positive 88% Amount of public money available to spend in Scotland 73% 8% 43% 40% 9% 5% 28% Yes No Undecided Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th-25th February 2014 Version 1 | Public 25% 75% 83% Negative © Ipsos MORI 12% Yes No Undecided
    • And concerns about impact on currency 13 If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative impact or no impact on each of the following? The strength of the pound Strength of the pound How has currency union announcement affected undecideds? More likely Yes 16% 25% 5% 29% 13% 38% 68% Undecided voters No difference 44% Yes No Undecided Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th-25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public More likely No 34%
    • Voters across Britain concerned about impact on UK economy 14 If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative impact or no impact on each of the following? The UK Economy UK economy – Scotland only 20% 8% 15% 40% 43% UK economy – England and Wales only 18% 57% 69% Yes No Undecided England/Wales Base: All. England & Wales data collected among 1,012 British adults aged18+1 st-3rd February 2014. Scotland data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20 th-25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
    • 15 What about the “social union”? © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
    • An unamicable divorce? 16 If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative impact or no impact on each of the following? Relations between Scotland and the rest of the UK/Cultural links between Scotland and the rest of the UK Relations between Scotland and the rest of the UK Cultural links between Scotland and the rest of the UK 14% 15% 50% 12% 47% England/Wales Scotland 16% 37% 63% Scotland Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th-25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public England/Wales
    • Concern that the UK will be diminished 17 If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative impact or no impact on each of the following? The UK’s standing in the world The UK’s standing in the world 13% 51% Scotland 10% 40% England/Wales Base: All. England & Wales data collected among 1,012 British adults aged18+1 st-3rd February 2014. Scotland data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20 th-25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
    • 18 And if Scotland votes No? © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
    • Business as usual? 19 If Scotland votes NO to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative impact or no impact on each of the following…? Scotland % No Impact 47% 50% 46% 47% 46% 45% 44% England/Wales 50% 49% 36% 35% 29% UK’s standing UK economy Cultural links Strength of the pound in the world Scottish economy 34% Relations 34% Public money Base: All. England & Wales data collected among 1,012 British adults aged18+1 st-3rd February 2014. Scotland data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20 th-25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
    • Many feel the result won’t have an impact on them personally 20 If Scotland votes Yes/No to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative impact or no impact on each of the following? If Scotland votes Yes… If Scotland votes No… 20% 46% No impact No impact 63% 69% No impact No impact Base: All. England & Wales data collected among 1,012 British adults aged18+1 st-3rd February 2014. Scotland data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20 th-25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
    • 21 www.ipsos-mori.com/indyref2014 4 @IpsosMORIScot © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
    • Paste cobrand logo here Thank you mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264 © Ipsos MORI This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006.