Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 days to go

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The Scottish Independence referendum on 18 September 2014 will be a major political focus of the autumn. This presentation highlights how public opinion is shifting in Scotland and the rest of the UK, as well as the wider implications of a yes or no vote.

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Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 days to go

  1. 1. Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 Days to Go #KingsIpsosMORI © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
  2. 2. 2 Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 Days to Go Mark Diffley Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public • 11/11/13
  3. 3. No poll has ever shown a majority in favour of independence 3 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1978 1983 1988 1993 Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey) © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public 1998 2003 2008 2013
  4. 4. February 2014 4 Undecided 11% Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes 32% No 57% Base: All certain to vote © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  5. 5. Not much has changed in the last two years 5 Should Scotland be an independent country? 70% No 60% 50% 40% Yes 30% 20% Undecided 10% 0% Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
  6. 6. Deprivation and national identity appear to be key drivers 6 Yes No 71 Scottish not British Scottish not British 69% More Scottish than More Scottish than British British 47 41 Equally Scottish Equally Scottish and British and British 20 49% 12% Least deprived areas Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20 th– 25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public 4% British not Scottish British not Scottish Most deprived areas More British than More British than Scottish Scottish 3% Yes
  7. 7. 7 45% Scots who…  may not vote (22%)  will vote but are undecided (9%)  will vote but may change their vote (14%) © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  8. 8. Undecided voters lean marginally towards ‘Yes’ 8 Which way are you inclined to vote? All undecided voters Undecided 33% Yes 39% No 29% Base: All undecided (159). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  9. 9. 9 What will happen afterwards? © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  10. 10. The referendum is less important outside Scotland 10 % saying referendum is important to them in 2014 To what extent do you agree or disagree that Scotland should be an independent country? 19% Agree 72% 17% 43% Scotland England/Wales Data collected among 2,244 British adults aged 16-75 6th-11th December 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Q1a/Q2a Which, if any, of the following have you done in the past 12 months? Disagree Source: Ipsos MORI Base (n=2,600)
  11. 11. 11 If Scotland votes Yes? © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  12. 12. Economic impact closely correlated with voting intention 12 If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative impact or no impact on each of the following? The Scottish economy/ The amount of public money available to spend in Scotland Scottish economy Positive 88% Amount of public money available to spend in Scotland 73% 8% 43% 40% 9% 5% 28% Yes No Undecided Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th-25th February 2014 Version 1 | Public 25% 75% 83% Negative © Ipsos MORI 12% Yes No Undecided
  13. 13. And concerns about impact on currency 13 If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative impact or no impact on each of the following? The strength of the pound Strength of the pound How has currency union announcement affected undecideds? More likely Yes 16% 25% 5% 29% 13% 38% 68% Undecided voters No difference 44% Yes No Undecided Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th-25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public More likely No 34%
  14. 14. Voters across Britain concerned about impact on UK economy 14 If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative impact or no impact on each of the following? The UK Economy UK economy – Scotland only 20% 8% 15% 40% 43% UK economy – England and Wales only 18% 57% 69% Yes No Undecided England/Wales Base: All. England & Wales data collected among 1,012 British adults aged18+1 st-3rd February 2014. Scotland data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20 th-25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  15. 15. 15 What about the “social union”? © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  16. 16. An unamicable divorce? 16 If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative impact or no impact on each of the following? Relations between Scotland and the rest of the UK/Cultural links between Scotland and the rest of the UK Relations between Scotland and the rest of the UK Cultural links between Scotland and the rest of the UK 14% 15% 50% 12% 47% England/Wales Scotland 16% 37% 63% Scotland Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th-25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public England/Wales
  17. 17. Concern that the UK will be diminished 17 If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative impact or no impact on each of the following? The UK’s standing in the world The UK’s standing in the world 13% 51% Scotland 10% 40% England/Wales Base: All. England & Wales data collected among 1,012 British adults aged18+1 st-3rd February 2014. Scotland data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20 th-25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  18. 18. 18 And if Scotland votes No? © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  19. 19. Business as usual? 19 If Scotland votes NO to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative impact or no impact on each of the following…? Scotland % No Impact 47% 50% 46% 47% 46% 45% 44% England/Wales 50% 49% 36% 35% 29% UK’s standing UK economy Cultural links Strength of the pound in the world Scottish economy 34% Relations 34% Public money Base: All. England & Wales data collected among 1,012 British adults aged18+1 st-3rd February 2014. Scotland data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20 th-25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  20. 20. Many feel the result won’t have an impact on them personally 20 If Scotland votes Yes/No to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative impact or no impact on each of the following? If Scotland votes Yes… If Scotland votes No… 20% 46% No impact No impact 63% 69% No impact No impact Base: All. England & Wales data collected among 1,012 British adults aged18+1 st-3rd February 2014. Scotland data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20 th-25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  21. 21. 21 www.ipsos-mori.com/indyref2014 4 @IpsosMORIScot © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  22. 22. Paste cobrand logo here Thank you mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264 © Ipsos MORI This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006.

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