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Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
Scotland Public Opinion Monitor  August 2014
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Scotland Public Opinion Monitor August 2014

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As Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling prepare for the first live television debate of the campaign, Ipsos MORI Scotland’s latest poll for STV News shows that ‘Yes’ continues to make some gains while …

As Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling prepare for the first live television debate of the campaign, Ipsos MORI Scotland’s latest poll for STV News shows that ‘Yes’ continues to make some gains while there are signs that more and more people are now making up their minds ahead of September.

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  • 1. 1 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor August 2014
  • 2. 2 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Should Scotland be an independent country? Referendum voting intention Base: All (1,006); all certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014 Yes 37% No 52% Undecided 11% All voters Yes 40% No 54% Undecided 7% Certain to vote
  • 3. 3 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Should Scotland be an independent country? Referendum voting intention – recent trend Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 No Yes Undecided
  • 4. 4 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Should Scotland be an independent country? Voting intention excluding undecided Base: All excluding undecided (893); all certain to vote excluding undecided (771). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014 Yes 42% No 58% All voters Yes 42% No 58% Certain to vote
  • 5. 5 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Should Scotland be an independent country? Referendum voting intention excluding undecided – recent trend Base: All certain to vote excluding undecided. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 No Yes
  • 6. 6 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Should Scotland be an independent country? Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and definitely decided how they will vote Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (683). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014 Yes 41% No 59% All definitely decided and certain to vote 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 No Yes
  • 7. 7 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI And, how likely would you be to vote in an immediate referendum, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 that you would be absolutely certain NOT to vote? Turnout is likely to be high Base: All. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 55+ All 16-24 % Absolutely certain to vote
  • 8. 8 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI 33% Scots who…  may not vote (19%)  will vote but are undecided (5%)  will vote but may change their vote (9%)
  • 9. 9 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI 17% 20% 15% 83% 80% 85% All Yes voters No voters Definitely decided May change mind Have you definitely decided to vote in this way or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? Definitely decided or might you change your mind? Base: All giving a voting intention (893). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 % Definitely decided No Yes
  • 10. 10 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Which way are you most inclined to vote? Which way are undecided voters leaning? Base: All undecided (113). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014 Yes 29% No 23% Undecided 47% All undecided voters
  • 11. 11 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI If you still haven’t made up your mind on the day of the referendum, which of the following are you most likely to do? What will voters do if they haven’t made up their minds by polling day? Base: All who are undecided or may change their mind (254). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014 Vote Yes 26% Vote No 38% Not vote at all 22% Other/Don't know 14% All who are undecided or may change their mind
  • 12. 12 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Long-term trend of support for independence Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
  • 13. 13 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Voting intention by gender Base: All certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014 47% 48% Yes No 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Men Women % voting Yes 33% 59%
  • 14. 14 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI 40% 53% 7% Voting intention by age group Base: All certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014 Yes No 44% 54% 56% 36% 8% 33% 60% 7% 16-24 25-34 35-54 55+ 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+ *Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds % voting Yes
  • 15. 15 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Voting intention by levels of deprivation Base: All certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014 43% 56% 26% 66% Most deprived areas Least deprived areas Yes No 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Most deprived areas Least deprived areas % voting Yes
  • 16. 16 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI 95% 4% 90% 5% Voting intention by party support Base: All certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014 Yes No 84% 11% 18% 77% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% SNP Lab Con Lib Dem % voting Yes
  • 17. 17 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Impact of the Commonwealth Games
  • 18. 18 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI 18 Commonwealth Games Very closely 27% Fairly closely 42% Not very closely 16% Not closely at all 15% How closely, if at all, have you been following the games? Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014 Very successful 67% Fairly successful 29% Fairly/very unsuccessful 1% Don't know 3% Based on what you have read, seen or heard, how successful or unsuccessful do you think the Games have been overall?
  • 19. 19 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI 19 What impact, if any, do you think the Games will have on how you plan to vote in the referendum? Impact of the Games on referendum voting More likely to vote Yes 7% More likely to vote No 3% Make no difference 89% 14% 1% 10% 0% 5% 1% Yes voters No voters Undecided voters More likely Yes More likely No Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
  • 20. 20 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Scottish Parliament voting
  • 21. 21 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote? Voting intention for Scottish Parliament elections Base: All aged 18+ giving a voting intention (851); all aged 18+ certain to vote and giving a voting intention (632). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014 SNP 36% Lab 34% Cons 16% Lib Dem 6% Green 4% Others 3% All giving a voting intention SNP 39% Lab 32% Cons 17% Lib Dem 6% Green 3% Others 3% Certain to vote SNP lead +2 SNP lead +7
  • 22. 22 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults. Voting intention for Scottish Parliament elections
  • 23. 23 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Perceptions of key figures
  • 24. 24 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI 24 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as First Minister/Leader of the Better Together Campaign? Salmond versus Darling: head to head Satisfied 49% Dissatisfied 43% Don't know 8% Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014 Satisfied 37% Dissatisfied 44% Don't know 18% Net satisfaction +6 Net satisfaction -7 Alex Salmond Alistair Darling
  • 25. 25 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as First Minister/Leader of the Better Together Campaign? Salmond versus Darling: satisfaction among voters 83% 23% 56% 18% 54% 24% Yes voters No voters Undecided voters % Satisfied Salmond Darling Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
  • 26. 26 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI 26 Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014 Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister/Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives? Satisfaction with party leaders 49% 43% 8% Alex Salmond Net rating +6 34% 17% 50% Patrick Harvie 40% 34% 27% Johann Lamont 23% 34% 43% Willie Rennie 34% 36% 31% Ruth Davidson 30% 64% 6% David Cameron Net rating +17 Net rating +6 Net rating -11 Net rating -2 Net rating -34
  • 27. 27 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives? Satisfaction with party leaders trend 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
  • 28. 28 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives? Net Satisfaction with party leaders trend -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
  • 29. 29 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI 29 Paste co- brand logo here Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as Deputy First Minister/Leader of the Better Together Campaign? 18% 44% 37% 16% 36% 48% Don't know Dissatisfied Satisfied Satisfaction with campaign leaders 15% 31% 54% 11% 14% 76% Don't know Dissatisfied Satisfied All Own campaign supporters Nicola Sturgeon Alistair Darling
  • 30. 30 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Technical details • This presents the topline results from Scotland • Results are based on a survey of 1,006 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone • Fieldwork dates: 28th July – 3rd August 2014 • Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data • Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories • Results are based on all respondents (1,006) unless otherwise stated
  • 31. 31 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Thank you mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot

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