Public Attitudes Towards Scotland's Constitutional Future

Paste co- brand logo here lPublic Attitudes Towards Scotland’s March 2nd 2012Constitutional FutureThe Times ConferenceScotland and the Union: what future?

2Support forindependence…

Paste co-Four in ten Scots voters support independence, but brand logo herehalf oppose it 3 Q: Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? All All who are certain to vote Undecided Undecided 13% Yes 11% Yes 37% 39% 50% 50% No No Base: All (1,005); All certain to vote (780). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co-Support for independence is higher among men, younger brand logo herepeople and those living in most deprived areas 4Q: Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? 70 Yes No 60 50 40 % 30 20 10 0 Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ Most Least Born in Born deprived deprived Scotland elsewhere areas areasBase: All certain to vote (780). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co-Those who oppose independence are more likely to brand logo herehave made their mind up 5 Q: Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? Support independence Oppose independence May change Definitely May change Definitely mind decided mind 15% decided 26% 74% 85% Base: All who would vote Yes (292); All who would vote No (418). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co- Support for independence – 35 year trend brand logo here 6 60 50 Scottish Parliament opensSupport for independence (%) Introduction of the poll tax Devolution referendum SNP form majority in Scotland government 40 30 20 SNP form minority government 10 Devolution referendum 0 2011 1988 1995 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 Data collected by Ipsos MORI (previously MORI). Fieldwork conducted face-to-face or by telephone amongc1,000 Scottish adults per wave. Please note, data from 1999-2008 comes from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey, conducted face-to-face among c1200-1500 Scottish adults. © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co-Almost half of Scots would like the referendum to brand logo herebe held within the next 18 months 7When do you think the referendum should be held? Support independence All Oppose independence Within the next 18 31% 2%5% months 63% 9% Within next the 18 months After Summer 2013 but before Autumn 16% 2014 11% After summer 2013 but before Autumn 2014 Autumn 2014 39% Autumn 2014 9% 47% After Autumn 2014 8% 22% After Autumn 2014 10% Never/shouldnt be held Never/shouldnt be *% held 4% Dont know Dont know 5% 4% 15% 0% 25% 50% 75%Base: All (1,005); All who would vote Yes (374); All who would vote No (499). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29January 2012© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

8Attitudes toward‘devolution max’…

965%Of Scots have heard of„devolution max‟.

1059% X XOf Scots think that a separate„devolution max‟ questionshould be on the ballot paper. X 37% Of Scots think that the referendum should only include a question on independence.

Paste co- brand logoMajority of Scots support devolution max proposal here 11 Q: Do you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to include more laws and duties and control most of taxation, while Scotland remains part of the UK? All All who are certain to vote Undecided Undecided Disagree 5% Agree Disagree 5% Agree 24% 25% 71% 71% Base: All (1,005); All certain to vote (780). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co-The vast majority of those who support brand logo hereindependence also support devolution max 12Q: Do you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to include more lawsand duties and control most of taxation, while Scotland remains part of the UK? Undecided 9% Oppose devolution 41% max Support devolution max 88% 53% Support independence Oppose independence Base: All who would vote Yes (292); All who would vote No (418). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co- brand logoParty support for independence and devolution max here 13 Party support 76% 89% 10% 59% Support independence 2% Support devolution max 38% 11% 62%Base: All (1,005). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

14Scots’ perceptionsof the impact ofindependence ontheir personalcircumstances andthe prospects forthe country as awhole…

Paste co- brand logoPersonal finances here 15Q: Do you think your personal finances will improve, stay the same or get worse… In the next five years If Scotland were to become an Don‟t know – 2% independent country Get worse Improve Don‟t know 7% Improve 22% 30% 34% 36% 35%Stay the same 33% Get worse Stay the same Net optimism = +4% Net optimism = -14%Base: All (1,005). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co- brand logoJob security here 16Q: Do you think your job security will improve, stay the same or get worse… In the next five years If Scotland were to become an Don‟t know – 3% independent country Improve Don‟t know Get worse 18% 5% Improve 19% 19% Get worse 26% 60% 50%Stay the same Stay the same Net optimism = -1% Net optimism = -7%Base: All those currently working (581). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co- brand logoEconomic conditions in Scotland here 17Q: Do you think economic conditions in Scotland will improve, stay the same or get worse… In the next five years If Scotland were to become an Don‟t know – 4% independent country Improve Don‟t know 8% Improve 34% 34% 39% 45%Get worse 13% 23% Get worse Stay the same Stay the same Net optimism = -5% Net optimism = -11%Base: All (1,005). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co-Scotland’s standing in the world brand logo here 18Q: Do you think Scotland’s standing in the world will improve, stay the same or get worse… In the next five years If Scotland were to become an independent country Don‟t know Improve Don‟t know – 4% 4% 6%Get worse Improve 17% Get worse 39% 33% 42% 38%Stay the same Stay the same 21% Net optimism = +22% Net optimism = +9%Base: All (1,005). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

19Alex Salmond Vs.…

Who should lead the ‘No’ Of those who could… campaign? David Cameron 25% 55% of Scots could not name someone Johann Lamont 9% ? Alistair Darling 7% 0% 10% 20% 30%Base: All (1,005), all naming someone (450). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+,27-29 January 2012

21National identity…

Paste co- brand logoNational identity here 22 Q: Which of the following best describes your national identity? All Born in Support Oppose Scotland independence independence Scottish not 24% 28% 46% 8% British More Scottish 30% 34% 31% 26% then British Equally Scottish 31% 32% 15% 44% and British More British 4% 2% 3% 6% than Scottish British not 7% 3% 3% 12% Scottish Base: All (1,005). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co- Technical details brand logo here 23• This presents the topline results from Scotland• Results are based on a survey of 1,005 respondents conducted by telephone• Fieldwork dates: 27th January – 29th January 2012• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS 2007-2008 data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don‟t know” categories• Results are based on all respondents (1,005) unless otherwise stated© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Paste co- brand logo here lThank youmark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot© Ipsos MORI This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006.

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Public Attitudes Towards Scotland's Constitutional Future

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