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Political Leadership: What Matters?
 

Political Leadership: What Matters?

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This event with King's College London brought together some of the most experienced leaders and thinkers in British politics over the last 30 years to look at what makes a great political leader and ...

This event with King's College London brought together some of the most experienced leaders and thinkers in British politics over the last 30 years to look at what makes a great political leader and the implications for those leading parties into the next general election. Panel: Rt Hon Lord (Paddy) Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon GCMG KBE; Rt Hon Lord (Douglas) Hurd of Westwell CH CBE; Rt Hon Lord (Neil) Kinnock; Professor (Lord) Kenneth O. Morgan, Visiting Professor in the Institute of Contemporary British History, King’s College London; Ben Page, Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI; Andrew Rawnsley, The Observer, Chief Political Commentator; Dr Elizabeth Vallance, Chair of I CAN (chair)
Our survey: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3329/Kings-College-London-Ipsos-MORI-political-leadership-poll.aspx

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    Political Leadership: What Matters? Political Leadership: What Matters? Presentation Transcript

    • Political Leadership Political Leadership What matters? How much does it matter? © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
    • Ben Page Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
    • 2010 – the most presidential election ever? I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. Some people are attracted mainly by the policies of the party, some by the leaders of the party and some because they identify with the party as a whole. If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you, how many points would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend voting for, how many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole? 5 4.7 4.6 4.4 Policies 4 3 2 4.2 4.1 3.5 3.1 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.1 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.2 3.4 3.3 Leaders 4.0 2.4 2.2 2.1 Party 1 Base: All giving a voting intention c.700 British adults each month (December 2013= 818) © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 0 1987 Mean scores shown Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
    • A pox on all your houses since the election? I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. Some people are attracted mainly by the policies of the party, some by the leaders of the party and some because they identify with the party as a whole. If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you, how many points would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend voting for, how many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole? 5 4.7 4.6 4.4 Policies 4 3 4.2 4.1 3.5 4.1 3.8 3.3 3.9 3.8 3.2 3.4 3.3 Leaders 4.0 3.1 2.6 2 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.1 Party 1 Base: All giving a voting intention c.700 British adults each month (December 2013= 818) © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 0 1987 Mean scores shown Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
    • Crosser than ever….. I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. Some people are attracted mainly by the policies of the party, some by the leaders of the party and some because they identify with the party as a whole. If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you, how many points would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend voting for, how many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole? Month and Year Political Triangle ‘Leaders’ mean score Leaders’ average satisfaction rating (Lab, Con & SDP/ Lib Dem) June 1987 3.5 -3 April 1992 3.2 +8 April 1997 3.4 +8 May 2001 3.2 -5 April 2005 3.1 -8 August 2008 3.9 -6 February 2010 3.8 0.0 December 2013 2.6 -22 Base: All giving a voting intention c.700 British adults each month (December 2013= 818) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
    • Not made easier by the rise of new challengers: is Boris the new Disraeli? Which of these statements comes closest to your views of …..? Ed Miliband David Cameron Boris Johnson I like him and I like his party 23 27 I like him and I like his policies 39 I like him but I do not like his party 7 16 I like him but I do not like his policies 20 I do not like him but I like his party 26 11 I do not like him but I like his policies 5 I do not like him and I do not like his party 37 41 I do not like him and I do not like his policies 18 Don't know 23 27 Don't know 18 Total like him 30 43 Total like him 59 Total do not like him 63 52 Total do not like him 23 Total like his party 49 38 Total like his policies 44 Total do not like his party 44 57 Total do not like his policies 38 Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th August 2013 (Miliband/Cameron); 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013 (Boris Johnson) © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
    • We agree with Churchill– democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. % Disagree % Agree We should replace elected politicians who run Britain with professional managers The quality of political leaders today is better than it has been in the past Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th -9th December 2013 © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London 24 18 69 73 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
    • What really matters? © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
    • What people SAY makes a good Prime Minister For each of the following, how important, if at all, would you say the things I am going to read out are to make a good Prime Minister? % ‘very important’ That the party’s leader... 93 89 87 ... understands the problems facing Britain ... is capable ... is good in a crisis 82 81 ... is in touch with ordinary people ... has sound judgement 76 ... is more honest than most politicians 71 ... understands world problems 64 64 … has experience of life outside politics … understands the fine details of policies 52 50 ... is experienced ... is patriotic … likeable ... has got a lot of personality Base: 503 British adults 18+, 7th -9th December 2013 © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London 29 26 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
    • Who’s ahead on these factors? Cameron Miliband Understands problems facing GB 1st 1st Capable 1st Good in a crisis 1st In touch with ordinary people worst Sound judgement 1st Farage 1st Trustworthy Clegg 1st And on the least important issues Likeable Personality © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London 1st 1st
    • What does the past tell us? © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
    • Perceptions of the more honest politician in the 1980s Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit Mr Callaghan/ Mrs Thatcher/ Mr Foot/ Mr Kinnock/ Mr Ashdown More honest than most politicians 1979 General Election 40 30 1987 General Election 1983 General Election 30 26Callaghan 28 27 Kinnock 29 25 22 22 20 18 18 10 18 16 16 Thatcher 20 10 13 Ashdown 11 Sep-78 Nov-78 Jan-79 Mar-79 May-79 Jul-79 Sep-79 Nov-79 Jan-80 Mar-80 May-80 Jul-80 Sep-80 Nov-80 Jan-81 Mar-81 May-81 Jul-81 Sep-81 Nov-81 Jan-82 Mar-82 May-82 Jul-82 Sep-82 Nov-82 Jan-83 Mar-83 May-83 Jul-83 Sep-83 Nov-83 Jan-84 Mar-84 May-84 Jul-84 Sep-84 Nov-84 Jan-85 Mar-85 May-85 Jul-85 Sep-85 Nov-85 Jan-86 Mar-86 May-86 Jul-86 Sep-86 Nov-86 Jan-87 Mar-87 May-87 Jul-87 Sep-87 Nov-87 Jan-88 Mar-88 May-88 Jul-88 Sep-88 Nov-88 Jan-89 Mar-89 May-89 Jul-89 Sep-89 Nov-89 Jan-90 Mar-90 May-90 Jul-90 Sep-90 Nov-90 0 Foot 21 23 Base: c. 2,000 British adults each time © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
    • Perceptions of the more honest politician in the 1990s & 2000s Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit Mrs Thatcher/ Mr Kinnock/ Mr Major/ Mr Smith/ Mr Ashdown/ Mr Hague/ Mr Kennedy/ Mr Duncan Smith/ Mr Howard More honest than most politicians 1992 General 44 Election 40 30 39 Major 32 20 24 14 36 31 29 22 22 18 29 25 25 22 24 20 0 16 28 18 20 Ashdown 34 27 31 Kennedy 22 25 Blair 25 21 12 9 Hague 16 11 9 IDS 8 11 8 10 9 7 Howard Jan-90 Apr-90 Jul-90 Oct-90 Jan-91 Apr-91 Jul-91 Oct-91 Jan-92 Apr-92 Jul-92 Oct-92 Jan-93 Apr-93 Jul-93 Oct-93 Jan-94 Apr-94 Jul-94 Oct-94 Jan-95 Apr-95 Jul-95 Oct-95 Jan-96 Apr-96 Jul-96 Oct-96 Jan-97 Apr-97 Jul-97 Oct-97 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Kinnock 15 Smith 10 11 Thatcher 2001 General Election 1997 General Election Base: c. 2,000 British adults each time © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
    • Most capable leader in the 1980s Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit Mr Callaghan/ Mrs Thatcher/ Mr Foot/ Mr Kinnock/ Mr Ashdown A capable leader 1979 General Election 70 1987 General Election 1983 General Election 62 60 59 51 Thatcher 50 40 Callaghan 37 46 44 34 Kinnock 30 20 25 21 18 Foot 10 24 27 34 34 24 26 20 21 15 15 15 Ashdown 9 Sep-78 Nov-78 Jan-79 Mar-79 May-79 Jul-79 Sep-79 Nov-79 Jan-80 Mar-80 May-80 Jul-80 Sep-80 Nov-80 Jan-81 Mar-81 May-81 Jul-81 Sep-81 Nov-81 Jan-82 Mar-82 May-82 Jul-82 Sep-82 Nov-82 Jan-83 Mar-83 May-83 Jul-83 Sep-83 Nov-83 Jan-84 Mar-84 May-84 Jul-84 Sep-84 Nov-84 Jan-85 Mar-85 May-85 Jul-85 Sep-85 Nov-85 Jan-86 Mar-86 May-86 Jul-86 Sep-86 Nov-86 Jan-87 Mar-87 May-87 Jul-87 Sep-87 Nov-87 Jan-88 Mar-88 May-88 Jul-88 Sep-88 Nov-88 Jan-89 Mar-89 May-89 Jul-89 Sep-89 Nov-89 Jan-90 Mar-90 May-90 Jul-90 Sep-90 Nov-90 9 0 30 39 45 Base: c. 2,000 British adults each time © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
    • Most capable leader in the 1990s & 2000s Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit Mrs Thatcher/ Mr Kinnock/ Mr Major/ Mr Smith/ Mr Ashdown/ Mr Hague/ Mr Kennedy/ Mr Duncan Smith/ Mr Howard A capable leader 60 50 40 30 51 52 44 47 39 37 Thatcher 51 Blair 44 39 33 26 23 Smith 19 19 11 Kinnock Major 9 19 34 34 Ashdown 29 20 22 30 Kennedy 18 14 10 9 Hague 12 IDS 10 15 9 Howard Jan-90 Apr-90 Jul-90 Oct-90 Jan-91 Apr-91 Jul-91 Oct-91 Jan-92 Apr-92 Jul-92 Oct-92 Jan-93 Apr-93 Jul-93 Oct-93 Jan-94 Apr-94 Jul-94 Oct-94 Jan-95 Apr-95 Jul-95 Oct-95 Jan-96 Apr-96 Jul-96 Oct-96 Jan-97 Apr-97 Jul-97 Oct-97 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 0 2001 General Election 1997 General Election 58 20 24 10 1992 General Election Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 2,000 British adults each time © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London 30
    • But are all our leaders doomed to disappoint? Even lower expectations of politicians than of government Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. We now expect more from government than we do from God We now expect more from politicians than we do from God 59 41 Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th -9th December 2013, split sampled across two statements (508 and 503 British adults 18+ respectively) © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London 29 48 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
    • What do politicians say? - The grim realities of power © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
    • So does character matter? “In truth Disraeli’s legacy is not political but personal. He was tolerant in an age when intolerance was normal. He was marvellously witty at a time when pomposity was treated as a virtue. He emphasised the importance of individual and national character when others were concerned with the details of legislation. He made, and still makes, politics exciting to people who otherwise find it dull. He was imaginative to excess, and unstintingly brave. … At the heart of Disraeli’s beliefs lay the thought that imagination and courage are the indispensable components of political greatness.” Douglas Hurd © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
    • What they say matters I think it’s incredibly complicated. The public’s view of what leadership is about is a sort of generalissimo command and control leadership which is rarely very appropriate in the complex environment you’re working in these days The first thing is knowing where you want to go, and the second thing is finding the best route for getting there, which isn’t always the quickest route, because you have to take people with you. I think the important thing is that you can adapt your leadership style to suit the situation. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
    • Final thoughts… 1. 2. 3. Competence matters more than empathy, personality or “honesty”, but it helps to have some character Party management is often overlooked as a key factor in success; politicians have much less choice in their colleagues than Chief Executives The public want political leadership, however little they say they now respect or trust politicians (or ever have) © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
    • Political Leadership Thank you How much does it matter? © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London