Bobby Duffy, MD, Ipsos Social Research Institute, presented this research conducted for Royal Statistical Society and King's College London at our event on 9 July 2013. This new survey highlights how wrong the British public can be on the make-up of the population and the scale of key social policy issues. The top ten misperceptions are presented here. More information: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3188/Perceptions-are-not-reality-the-top-10-we-get-wrong.aspx

1. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Perils of
Perception

2. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Bobby Duffy
Director, Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute,
Visiting Senior Fellow, King’s College London
Perception gaps

3. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Out of every 100 people in Britain, about how many do you think are:
We have a very odd view of our
population...
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Census 2011, NOMIS; 2011 Census, Population and Household Estimates for England and Wales
(July 2012) ONS; Families and Households, 2012 (November 2012) ONS..
34
36
30
22
24
28
Mean 59
16
11
8
5
3
Actual
ChristianAged 65+Black/AsianUnemployedMuslimSingle parents

4. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
In your opinion, what proportion of girls under the age of 16 years in Britain get
pregnant each year?
Extraordinary view of teenage girls...
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
5
24
5
16
8
5
7
31
1% or less
2%-5%
6%-9%
10%-19%
20%-29%
30%-39%
40%+
Don’t…Don’t know
Mean 15%
Actual 0.6%

5. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
In your opinion, is the number of people coming to live in the UK from other countries
too high, too low or about right?
Lot of concern about immigration....
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
76
14
2 8
Too high
About right
Too low
Don't know
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75
Legitimate concerns, driven
by number of factors...

6. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
...but there is also huge over-estimation of
scale
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75, *British Social Attitudes
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 ; *Detailed country of birth and nationality analysis from the 2011 Census of England
and Wales, (May 2013) ONS. **Immigration Statistics, January to March 2013, (May 2013) Home Office.
What percentage of the
United Kingdom
population do you
think are immigrants to
this country (i.e. not
born in the UK)?
31
13
Mean unprompted
Actual

7. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
...but there is also huge over-estimation of
scale
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75, *British Social Attitudes
What percentage of the
United Kingdom
population do you
think are immigrants to
this country (i.e. not
born in the UK)?
26
31
13
Mean prompted
Mean unprompted
Actual
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 ; *Detailed country of birth and nationality analysis from the 2011 Census of England
and Wales, (May 2013) ONS. **Immigration Statistics, January to March 2013, (May 2013) Home Office.

8. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
According to the last Census in 2011, the percentage of the UK population that was born in
another country is actually 13%. Why do you think the percentage is much higher?
Why do people believe it is higher?
Base: 376 British adults aged 16-75 (all who thought the percentage of immigrants in the UK was 26% or higher) Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
56
46
36
34
23
19
16
10
1
1
3
People come into the country illegally so aren’t
counted
I still think the proportion is much higher than 13%
What I see in my local area
What I see when I visit other towns/cities
I was just guessing
Information seen on TV
Information seen in newspapers
The experiences of friends and family
I misunderstood the question
Other
Don’t know

9. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
0
10
20
30
40
0 10 20 30 40
We’re not alone...
Source: Sides, J. and Citrin, J. (2007) How large the huddled masses? The causes and consequences of Public
misperceptions about immigrant populations. Paper presented at 2007 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Sciences
Association, Chicago, IL.
0
10
20
30
40
0 10 20 30 40
Actual percentage foreign-born
Estimated
percentage
foreign-born
Lux
SwitzUS
UK
Port
Italy
Den
Ger
France

10. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Below are a number of statements about how Britain and our public services have changed over
the last few years. For each one I would like you to tell me whether you think it is true or false:
We’re too negative about crime trends –
but...
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75
51
83
Violent
crime is
rising
2013
2005
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Closing the gaps: Crime and public perceptions, (2005) Ipsos MORI; Crime in England and Wales, Year Ending
December 2012, (April 2013) ONS; Police Service Strength England and Wales, 31 March 2012, (July 2012) Home Office.
%True

11. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK
Government spends the most money on?
We’re very wrong on government
spending...
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75
45
38
30
29
26
24
16
14
4
11
Interest payments on the national debt
Health
Working age benefits
Defence
Overseas aid
State pensions
Education and schools
Policing and criminal justice
Transport
Don’t know
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Government spending by department, 2011-12: get the data, (December 2012) Guardian;
Medium-term forecast for all DWP benefits, (April 2013) DWP.

12. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
38
30
24
16
45
29
4
26
14
11
£52bn
£107bn
Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK
Government spends the most money on?
...easier to see when re-order by actual
spend...
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75
Actual
£48bn
£82bn
£37bn
£8bn
£74bn
£6bn
£12bn
Interest payments on the national debt
Health
Working age benefits
Defence
Overseas aid
State pensions
Education and schools
Policing and criminal justice
Transport
Don’t know
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Government spending by department, 2011-12: get the data, (December 2012) Guardian;
Medium-term forecast for all DWP benefits, (April 2013) DWP.

13. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
And which do you think the UK Government spends more on, Job Seeker’s
Allowance (JSA) or state pensions?
Pensions v JSA...
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75
29
4.9
11 47
74.2
JSA Both the same Pension
Actual spend (£bn)
And which do you think the
UK Government spends more
on, Job Seeker’s Allowance
(JSA) or state pensions?
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; A Survey of the UK Benefit System: IFS Briefing Note BN13 (November 2012)
Institute for Fiscal Studies.
15x more on pensions....

14. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
What benefit changes do we support and
expect to save the most?
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75
Support
most
Saves most
Stopping child benefit at £50k+
Capping benefits at £26,000
“Bedroom tax”
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Joyce, R. Thought’s on a benefit cap (February 2012) IFS. Sharing the burden - How the older generation should suffer its share of the cuts: IEA Discussion
Paper No. 34 (February 2011) IEA; A Survey of the UK Benefit System: IFS Briefing Note BN13, (November 2012) Institute for Fiscal Studies; Impact Assessment: Welfare Benefits Up-rating
Bill (January 2013) DWP; Hain, P. Why Labour is wrong to cut winter fuel allowance for wealthy pensioners, (June 2013) Huffington Post. Impact Assessment: Housing Benefit: Under
occupation of social housing, (June 2012) DWP; Pensioners and the tax and benefit system: IFS Briefing Note BN130, (2012) IFS.
Raising pension age to 66
£5bn
£290m
£1.7bn
£500m
Popularity affects
estimates...?
or £185m

15. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Out of every £100 spent from the welfare budget, can you tell me how much of that is claimed
fraudulently (i.e. people who dishonestly claim more benefits than they are entitled to)?
Biggest misperception on benefit fraud...
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75
Mean estimate £24
Actual 70p
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; National Statistics fraud and error in the benefit system: preliminary 2012/13
estimates (Great Britain) first release, (June2013) DWP.

16. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
When you were answering the last question, which of the following activities, if any,
were you thinking of as fraud?
Although may be measuring different
things?
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
79
75
67
55
46
42
34
32
9
People providing false information to claim more benefits
than they are entitled to
People faking disabilities or illness
Not reporting changes in circumstances e.g. a partner
moving in
Working cash-in-hand
People on unemployment benefit not trying to find work
People from abroad/immigrants claiming benefits
People claiming benefits who haven’t paid any
taxes/national insurance
People having more children so that they are
entitled to more benefits
Don’t know
} 45%

17. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Why do these
gaps exist?

18. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Misperceptions/
innumeracy
Why do these gaps exist?
Cognitive errors
- Statistical literacy: difficulty with
large/small numbers; levels v
trends etc
- Social psychology: availability
heuristic; focus on negative
information; framing/anchoring
important; take time to notice
Media/political rhetoric
- Vivid stories; less
emphasis on scale
“Emotional innumeracy”
- Reflects concerns, not facts
- Motivated reasoning: “accuracy goals”
vs “directional goals”
Measurement/ definitional
- Imprecision in questions
- ...but also talking about different
things

19. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
In our own way, we’re like Einstein...
“If the facts don’t fit
the theory, change
the facts...”

20. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Thank you
bobby.duffy@ipsos.com
@BobbyIpsosMORI
Thank you